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Crystal Ball, Crystal Ball, Show Me November 5

10/29/2014

by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

With the midterm election less than a week away on November 4, there is more uncertainty of what the Senate results will be than in any recent election. While every election night holds surprises (remember Eric Cantor?), next Tuesday night we may be in store for several surprises and upsets.

The races that are most competitive with a week to go are the Republican held seats in Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia and the Democrat held seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado and Alaska.

So, let's rub the crystal ball and see what emerges....

A couple of assumptions: First, let's assume Republicans win South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia, giving them three pickups. Republicans have held consistent double digit leads in all three seats for months. Also, we can safely assume that Louisiana will go to a run off on December 6th and in that scenario is considered a toss-up.

With KY, KS and GA in the air, but MT, SD and WV likely additions, Republicans start with a 45 seat foundation.

With MI, LA, NC, NH, CO, AR, AK, and IA in the air, Democrats start with a foundation of 44 seats.
Republicans need to get to 51 for a majority because at 50-50, Vice President Joe Biden is the tie-breaker on behalf of Democrats.

Polling averages in many of these races have been fairly consistent for the last month, indicating that the races have settled a bit. While all are very close (within the margin of error in most cases) the stability of the leader hasn't shifted in over a month in many of these.

Republicans have held a consistent lead in Kentucky, Arkansas, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado.

Democrats have held steady leads in North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire.

The three wild cards are Kansas, Georgia and Louisiana. Louisiana, as we have said, is likely to go to a runoff which will be held December 6. Increasingly, a runoff is also the most likely scenario in Georgia, but this one held January 6. Kansas is the other real toss up and is complicated by the fact that Republican Pat Roberts isn't running against a Democrat, he's running against an Independent, Greg Orman, who hasn't said if he would caucus with Republicans or Democrats, but has hinted that he will work with whoever is in the majority. (Just to make it more fun, remember that Maine Independent Angus King has ALSO said he reserves the right to switch and caucus with Republicans if they take the majority).

If current polling trends hold steady for another week and predict who will win each state (a BIG "if"), then Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC. KS and GA are both tied. That puts Republicans at 50 seats with three in the air. In a 50-50 tie, Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed.
So, understanding that there will be at least one and probably two races outstanding, and possibly two Senators who could caucus with either party, what are the various scenarios and how likely are we to see each on the morning of November 5th?

Democrats Hold the Senate:
Democrats holding the Senate is the least likely scenario. It would mean that Republicans won no more than two of the following: MI, NH, NC, CO, AR, AK, IA and/or lost seats in Georgia or Kentucky (or Orman wins Kansas and immediately announces as a Democrat). Given the consistent polling advantage Republican candidates enjoy a week before the election, this is an unlikely scenario.

Likelihood: 15%

Republicans Win the Senate:
For Republicans to know on November 5th that they will be in the majority in the Senate in the next Congress is more likely than Democrats knowing that THEY will be in the majority, but still not certain. For this to happen, with Louisiana still out, would mean that Republicans won three or more of the races listed above AND swept GA, KY and KS. With Republicans leading in polls in AR, CO, IA and AK, the first part of that equation is possible, but the second part is deicer. A possible scenario is Roberts wins Kansas, GA and LA go to runoffs. In this case, Republicans would have 51 and be in the majority regardless of the outcome of Georgia or Louisiana runoffs.

Likelihood: 40%

Majority Control is Unclear:
An equally likely scenario is that we still won't know who will control the Senate on the morning after the election. If current polling holds through Election Day, Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC. KS and GA are both tied and LA is already headed to a runoff. That puts Republicans at 50 seats and Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed.

Likelihood: 45%

The permutations of which party Orman (and King) would caucus with, the results of runoffs, if any state switches from one side to the other in current polling (remember that ALL of these races are still within the margin of error) then we are in for an unpredictable Election Night where anything is possible the next morning.

The one thing you CAN count on is receiving the latest updates and analysis from BIPAC so your members and employees will have the most updated information possible.

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Online Influence of the Action Fund's Latest Endorsements

10/22/2014

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by Jason Langsner, Director of New Media and Communications

Last week the BIPAC Action Fund released its final set of candidate endorsements for 2014 (see below). To follow-up from those endorsements, the following Election Insights looks quantitatively at each endorsed candidate's race and provides a summary of how they are engaging with potential voters across social media as-compared-to the other party's candidate.

Candidates' social voices ranged from the high 40s to low 60s as defined by the Klout.com scale of influence, which goes up to 100. As points of comparison, Speaker of the House John Boehner's official channel (@johnboehner) has a score of 87 and President Obama's official channel (@barackobama) has a score of 99.

The range of those that like the candidates' pages on Facebook and follow them on Twitter ranges from a few hundred to an outlier of 128k. Some candidates are thus investing more in social and new media with their paid advertising strategy than others who are relying on organic growth and a content strategy that isn't promoted by ads. Counting followers though doesn't provide a true metric of how engaged the candidates are with their desired audience of potential voters. Klout is a bit better, but a true metric is to look at the sentiment of what is being said about the candidates. For instance in the Alaska Senate race, those sharing on social media about Dan Sullivan are posting at a 4:1 positive-to-negative ration; as-compared-to a 1:1 ratio for Begich (source: SocialMention.com).

Listening to the campaigns on social media helps to guide our strategy, but what impacts the strategy and makes a difference is the work being done on the ground by our members and partners. BIPAC itself has assets on the ground across the U.S. in key election states of importance to our private sector community. What we are seeing throughout the country in our grassroots political training workshops will provide the impact.

A Twitter channel cannot vote but the individual behind the online identity can - and BIPAC, plus our members and partners, want to make sure that private sector employees are registered and educated about the issues of importance to their job, company, and industry.

Employees Vote (and tweet) in 2014.

BIPAC Action Fund Final Endorsed Candidates' Online Voice

BIPAC Action Fund Final Endorsed Candidates' Online Voice

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Less Than Two Weeks To Go and ANYTHING Could Happen

10/22/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

There are 10 U.S. Senate races that are toss-ups with the candidates within five points of each other and no candidate polling over 50%.

Approval ratings for both parties are at historic lows.
Confidence in Congress to solve even minor problems is at a historic low.
There has been more money spent on midterm elections than ever before. By a lot.
Voter enthusiasm and engagement is significantly lower than 2006 or 2010 midterms.
That is a recipe for unpredictability.

There are two really remarkable things about this mid-term Senate election. The first is the sheer number of highly competitive Senate races. The second is just how close so many of them remain with less than two weeks before Election Day.

In recent weeks, polling has tightened in two races that had been considered likely to go Republican - South Dakota and Georgia. Other races that had already been considered competitive are seeming even more so in the closing weeks.

In a typical election cycle, there are four or five Senate races that are considered highly competitive. This year, there are 10. Two held by Republicans and eight held by Democrats. Two additional Democratic held seats in Montana and West Virginia are likely to switch to Republican control. If that happens, Republicans would need to net four additional seats to take control of the Senate.

If Republicans lose either Georgia or Kansas, currently held by Republicans, it makes it very difficult for them to win a majority in the Senate. The seats that have long been considered competitive, currently held by Democrats all remain so. Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Dakota are states all carried by Mitt Romney in 2012 with Democratic incumbents and have been top Republican targets for over a year. Other Democratic held seats that could go either way include Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire.

Polling averages in ALL of these races have less than a five point difference between the top candidates and none have a candidate breaking 50%. With less than two weeks to go, that is truly unprecedented.

In a political environment where both parties' approval ratings and public confidence in the ability of Congress to solve even minor problems has dwindled to record low levels, there is such broad dissatisfaction with Washington and politics, it makes for a very volatile electorate. Polling results are increasingly unreliable and even more so in an unpredictable, low turnout, mid-term election. The result is less clarity about what may happen on Election Day than at any time in recent history.
We have seen some unexpected results already, most notably the surprise loss of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in his primary. More such surprises are likely in store for November 4.

With voter enthusiasm at such low levels and so many races that could go either way, engaging and mobilizing your workforce is more important than ever and allows your voice to be magnified so much more in determining the result of these elections. In the closing days of one of the wildest and most unpredictable elections cycles in a long time, your leadership in employee engagement is critical.

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Senate Outlook - One Month Out

10/8/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

We are now 27 days out from the election and into the final stretch. Below is BIPAC's Senate Rankings for 2014, and today's EIS will focus on the current trajectory of the competitive races, including the Lean Republican, Toss Up and Lean Democrat.

Overview

Typically races move on or off the competitive playing field as the election cycle progresses, but this cycle has remained remarkably steady with the races that were thought to be competitive a year out still being the ones that are competitive less than a month out and with very few new races creeping into the competitive category. All of the races outlined below are still considered highly competitive, but some are beginning to drift one way or another and are designated as "lean" towards one party or the other.

Lean Republican

AR: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) has been on the list of most vulnerable Democrats for a while now, and not much is changing. Pryor is relatively well liked and his family has been involved in Arkansas politics for years, but Arkansas is a solidly red state now at the federal level. Romney won by 24 points in 2012 and Pyror is the only Democrat left in the federal delegation. Most polls have Rep. Tom Cotton (R) leading the race by an average four points, with Pryor stuck around 40% - bad numbers for an incumbent.

GA: Democrats fielded an impressive candidate in Michelle Nunn (D), who has given Republicans a competitive race in Georgia. However, now that the Republican primary is over and David Perdue (R) has coalesced the Republican base, he is starting to pull away in the polls and currently leads by about three points. While Perdue is leading, both candidates are still under 50%, and if neither get a majority of the vote, this race will go into a runoff on January 6th. Runoffs tend to favor Republicans, especially in a midterm election year, and depending how the other races flesh out on Election Day, this could be the race that decides the control of the Senate.

KY: Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) has been an impressive candidate, but Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) has double downed and with Pres. Obama's dismal approval ratings in this coal state, the race is looking less and less competitive as we head into October. Currently, McConnell leads on average by about five points, with his lead widening in the past few weeks. This is still a competitive race, but McConnell has the advantage in the home stretch.

LA: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) continues to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle. With no candidate in this race polling above 50%, it is likely the race will be decided in a runoff on December 6th. If Democrats hold the Senate, Landrieu will become Chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which Democrats hoped would give her an edge in this race. Cassidy however has run a good campaign and President Obama's approval rating in Louisiana is underwater. Control of the Senate may come down to the LA runoff, and in the runoff polling, Cassidy leads by about six points.

Toss Up

AK: Sen. Mark Begich (D) is faring better than some of his colleagues this cycle, but still faces an extremely competitive race against former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan. Polling in Alaska has been all over the place the past few months, with Begich and Sullivan both leading at one point or another. With a very late Republican primary over, Sullivan has begun his general election campaigning in full and is leading the polls by 3-6 points. However, polling in Alaska is notoriously difficult. This could go either way at this point.

CO: This is a tossup race that no one had on their radar a year ago, with Rep. Gory Gardner (R) entering the race in March. Since Gardner entered, polls showed him statistically tied with Sen. Mark Udall (D) and that has continued throughout the summer and into the final stretch. Pres. Obama won Colorado in 2012 by five points, but his approval ratings continue to drop, hurting Udall's chances. Gov. Hickenlooper (D) also faces a competitive election this cycle, which could further hurt Udall's reelection campaign. Expect this race to stay a tossup until the election.

IA: Since Joni Ernst (R) won the GOP nomination in June, this race has been a tossup. Democratic nominee Rep. Bruce Braley (D) has had trouble connecting with voters and like most other Democrats running this cycle, has had to distance himself from Pres. Obama's negative approval numbers in the state. He also does not have the advantage of incumbency, like several of the other Democratic candidates this cycle. Ernst has run a strong campaign and Republicans are hopeful that having popular Gov. Branstad (R) on the ticket as well will help her chances. Ernst currently leads Braley by an average of two points - still within the margin of error.

KS: Kansas has become the wild card race this election cycle. Sen. Pat Roberts (R) faces a surprisingly competitive general election after being damaged in the primary. The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, had little name ID or funds for the general election. He has been removed from the ballot, presenting a clear path for a challenge to Roberts by Independent candidate Greg Orman. Orman has affiliated with each party over the years and describes himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate. He has not indicated which party he would caucus with if elected. On average, Orman is leading Roberts in the polls by five points though Roberts and outside groups have just begun attacking Orman who had been running months of positive ads, so the race is expected to tighten as the attacks sink in with voters. Further complicating Roberts' reelection chances is Gov. Sam Brownback (R), who is also up for re-election this cycle and is losing support from the more moderate wing of the Republican Party in Kansas. This Senate race is currently a tossup and Roberts has become the most vulnerable Republican Senator this cycle.

Lean Democrat

MI: For the past few months, Rep. Gary Peters (D) has been leading in the polls against former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R). Michigan went for Pres. Obama in 2012 and is the only state Pres. Obama is visiting with a Senate race this fall, showing his national brand is not as damaged in Michigan as it is in other Senate states. Peters is up by an average of seven points and this seat is leaning in his favor.

NH: Carpet bagging attacks against former MA Senator Scott Brown (R) don't appear to be sticking and this race is getting closer and closer as we approach November. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) had a double digit lead in the summer, but now only leads by an average of five points. While NH is currently in the lean D column, it could soon be moved to toss up, if the poll numbers continue to tighten. Shaheen is well liked in the state, but Pres. Obama is underwater in NH and Brown is campaigning heavily on foreign policy, nationalizing the race. New Hampshire, more than any other state, has a tendency to sway with the political winds, going heavily Democratic in strong Democratic years and strongly Republican in good GOP years. If anyone could survive those powerful electoral winds, it would be Shaheen but the state's electoral tendencies run deep with the voters here.

NC: Once of the more vulnerable Senators running for re-election, Kay Hagan (D) has started to pull away from state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in the polls, and if this trend continues, will be favored for re-election. Tillis, coming from an unpopular legislative session, has been dropping in the polls, and his favorability ratings are less than Hagan, with only 36% of voters having a favorable view, compared to Hagan's 42%. The North Carolina race has turned into a lesser of two evils race, with Hagan currently in the lead.

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House Races You May Not Be Watching, But Should

10/1/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

While Republicans are expected to expand their majority in the House due to a significantly higher number of Democrats facing competitive races and the Republican lean of the election cycle, there are always a few surprises on election night. Below are a few of the races that haven't topped most political radars, but are proving to be some of the most interesting contests in the country.

ME-2
Rep. Mike Michaud's (D) open seat features one of the most interesting political dynamics in the country for the business community. Maine has a history of centrist consensus builders like Rep. Mike Michaud, former Sen. Olympia Snowe (R), Sen. Angus King (I), Sen. Susan Collins (R) and former Sen. Bill Cohen (R). The Democrat nominee, 35 year old State Senator Emily Cain, seems cut from a similar cloth and has a reputation of open-door, consensus building in the state legislature admired even by her political opponents. Her voting record however is reliably progressive and pro-labor.   Bruce Poliquin, who beat an Olympia Snowe protégé in the primary with a tea-party oriented message on taxes and spending, is the Republican nominee who would likely be a reliable business vote. The district tilts slightly Democratic but as an open seat, it is very much a toss-up. The candidates involved leave the business community in a quandary: a Democrat who won't vote with you as frequently but can help build consensus to get things working better in Washington versus a more reliable vote.

CA-3
Democrat incumbent John Garamendi is facing Republican State Senator Dan Logue. Garamendi is a reliable vote for home state colleague Nancy Pelosi (D) and scored just 4% on BIPAC's Outline for Prosperity vote guide. Logue meanwhile has a perfect record with both NFIB and the CalChamber but more interesting is Logue's approach to public service. A good government reformer and consensus builder at heart, Logue does things like assembling a bi-partisan team to hold meetings with CEOs who have taken their businesses out of California and asking what, specifically, it would take for them to return to the state. He has used his position to force local governments to be more transparent in contracting which saved millions of tax dollars and created an even playing field for all.   Garamendi won in 2012 with less than 55% of the vote and Logue's Assembly district is almost wholly within the Congressional district. While it is a Democrat leaning seat, with an off-year electorate, an incumbent who is to the left of the voters and a reform oriented Republican with a record of bi-partisanship, CA-3 is a ripe opportunity for a surprise on election night.

IA-1
Rep. Bruce Braley (D) will need a big turnout in his home district to win his Senate race in what is considered the most heavily Democratic district in the state at D+5 and having voted for Pres. Obama with 56% of the vote in 2012. Dynamics on the ground however are making this one of the most interesting races in the country to watch. Democrat Speaker of the House Pat Murphy has a long, very adversarial relationship with the business community in Iowa and beat two other much more centrist Democrats to win the nomination. First time candidate Republican Rod Blum conversely was named Entrepreneur of the Year in Iowa for growing his software company from 5 employees to 325.   In this rural district, NFIB and the NRA are brand names that Democrats have always worked hard to court and both have endorsed Blum this year. An early September poll showed a two point race - closer than the open 3rd district seat which had been considered to be much more competitive. Blum has surprised many with his adept campaign ability and slow and steady work to win over voters. With Murphy so far to the left of the district and a popular Governor Branstad (R) driving turnout at the top of the ticket, Iowa's first district could be at the top of the list of races with a surprising result.

AR-2
In the race to fill the open seat of Rep. Tim Griffin (R), the business community quickly rallied around Republican banker French Hill and Democrats chose North Little Rock Mayor Patrick Henry Hays (who has one of the best candidate names of the cycle). On the surface, it seemed a safe bet to hold the seat for Republicans, but it has become one of the sleeper races the Democrats hope to pick off. It is Arkansas' most Democratic district and voted for Obama by 8 points more than any other Congressional District in the state. Senator Mark Pryor will be pushing a big Democratic turnout in Hays' Little Rock backyard if he is going to have a chance at reelection and Hays has focused like a laser on job creation, running some of the most effective TV ads of the cycle.   Observers in the state still give an edge to Hill, but Hays has proven to be a much more formidable candidate than anticipated and Hill's patrician demeanor in the most Democratic leaning district in the state COULD result in a surprise Democratic pickup in the deep south.

NY-11
You would think a Republican in a district carried by Barack Obama who was caught on camera threatening to kill a news reporter and being under FBI indictment would pretty much end his chances at reelection. If so, you aren't familiar with the political dynamics on Staten Island and Rep. Michael Grimm. Staten Island has always felt itself different and separate from New York, even voting to secede as recently as 1993. They are the picked on little brother who gets little but scorn from the rest of the cosmopolitan world capital. Michael Grimm is one of them. On a visceral level, he understands and relates to them - and vice versa. The district also has a couple of precincts in Brooklyn, which may as well be in Connecticut for the impact they have on the thinking of the district. It is from one of these precincts that Democrat Councilman Domenic Recchia hails. Staten Island has the highest percentage of Italian ancestry in the country according to the Almanac of American Politics. Grimm and Recchia both have Italian heritage, but Grimm's Staten Island roots and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio's (D) unpopularity in the district may show that Grimm, despite the politics of the district, despite federal indictments, despite threats to reporters, has a real chance to hold his seat. If he does, it will be one of the most remarkable results of the election.

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Social and New Media Listening and Engagement as a Form of Political Advocacy

9/17/2014

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by Jason Langsner, Director, New Media and Communications
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As a new media professional I spend a good part of my day listening to the conversation online about politics and about BIPAC. I can't read everything written about the candidates that the BIPAC Action Fund has endorsed or those running against them, but I do read every single tweet, Facebook post, media hit, and website reference that includes "BIPAC" and/or the "Business-Industry Political Action Committee" in it. I choose some to engage with. I choose some to share to our broader audience. Others I choose to do nothing with besides read or skim.

Offline, I received a card in the mail today from a friend and partner of BIPAC's - the Congressional Management Foundation (CMF). The consumption of content in this medium is a bit different than how I review content online, but in the end content-is-content, period. I was expecting the card to be a thank you for our recent work collaborating with them on a number of new media initiatives to recognize and improve how Congress conducts constituent communications in the 21st century. By working with partners such as CMF, BIPAC can help our members in a number of ways; but this card was not a thank you card. It was something entirely different. I opened up the card and it read:

We in America do not have government by the majority. We have government by the majority who participate." - Thomas Jefferson

"We in America do not have government by the majority. We have government by the majority who participate." - Thomas Jefferson
On September 17, 1787, the Constitution of the United States of America was ratified by the delegates of the Constitutional Convention.
This was my first Constitution Day Card.
I use this, not as a large public commercial for CMF or about how I spend my day-to-day, but as a means to pivot to BIPAC and the business-industry's efforts to increase employer and employee participation in the government process. A process that begins with the identification of candidates' who share our values of free enterprise and a process that continues after the polls have closed with a conversation between those who we send to represent us in the U.S. House and Senate and our employees. This conversation exists both offline and online.
At a functional level, CMF's card worked. They had a message. They choose a tool and channel to deliver that message. And that message was received by its target audience (me) when I opened up the envelope and read the card. It was brand exposure for CMF and brand association for CMF with Constitution Day.
Across social media, I have to be a bit more active in how I listen to the conversation about BIPAC's brand than opening up an envelope. For one, I have to go to the content rather than have the content come to me. And I know that the first rule of social media is that you can't control it, but the second is that you do your best to manage it. Without knowing what is out there about BIPAC, I can't manage it.

I have tools that scour the Internet and all social media networks that can find such references to our brand name in real-time. And I choose to engage in some of those references to foster and promote the conversation about the work that BIPAC is doing on behalf of our community of members and partners. If a tweet or FB post that you've shared about BIPAC has been RTed, replied, or liked - that was more than likely from me.
In today's interconnected and fast paced world of Web 2.0, we have more tools at our disposal to get our message across. This complicates the listening component for brand managers, campaign directors, and GR professionals; but it also provides us with far more intelligence than what was available to use in the days of Web 1.0 and before.

It is no longer just about what candidate makes the best TV ad or who has the most to spend. It isn't about whose direct mail list is better and/or if the photos and message on it resonated more with the audience.
Today those tried and true methods of political advocacy are still in high-demand and still play an important role in the relationship between candidates and the voting population, but they're not the only arrows in the quivers of political strategists and campaign communication directors. New and social media, SMS, and big data driven email campaigns lead to an ever-increasing personalized and localized approach to political and election advocacy. These tools are offering direct access to the voter and far greater access to reporting and intelligence.
The same way that I listen to "BIPAC," any smart digital campaign director is listening to the brand of his/her candidate. Any smart digital campaign director should be able to report to the candidate what the online sentiment is of their brand, such as - are more people speaking positively or negatively about it (or are comments neutral). Any smart digital campaign director should also know how influential his/her brand is online as compared to that of their competition.
A few years ago some of these channels and listening tools existed. Some did not. Some were being misused by campaigns, such as just using Twitter and Facebook as a secondary channel to distribute press releases, but not as a tool to listen and engage in conversation.
Well ran campaigns are listening as much as talking to potential voters today. They are engaging with potential voters. Employers and employee voters should be a part of that conversation and should consider actively engaging online regarding the election or at the least listening to what the candidates are saying across social and new media.
I am a strong believer in multi-channel communication. Every single day over 100 billion emails are sent and received around the world. On average that comes down to about 125 emails being read and/or sent per online individual. We can all empathize with this as Radicati data shows that about 28% of a business person's day is spent answering or reading emails. So it is easy for a single email to fall through the cracks, get caught in a junk folder, or bounce because of a typo in the name. Or some are simply ignored because many of us have more work in a given day than hours available to complete our given tasks. But I'd suspect each and every one of us starts their morning or their work day by skimming their emails in their inboxes and prioritizing to open those coming from their boss or their CEO. We've been conditioned to do such. Same is true for a text message. You may open an unread text from your kids or from your spouse before you open one from your dog walker. Same would be true from a text from your supervisor. Those emails and texts from individuals we unconsciously consider to be marked with a red exclamation point of importance are read and they're not falling through the cracks.
It is about the messenger today, more so than the message. And it is also about the channel(s) of communication and your content strategy to communicate that message.

In a soon-to-be-released white paper that is being co-written by BIPAC and CMF, based on survey data from Hill staffers, we are able to show that 64% of Congressional office social media managers and communications professionals recognize Facebook as being a "somewhat or very important tool for understanding constituents' views and opinions" while "another 42% said the same for Twitter." I don't know or have the data of how this same paradigm relates on the campaign trail, but as many of these staffers come from volunteering or working for a candidate's campaign - we could assume that they're just as equally important.
Every single day 4.75 billion pieces of content are shared on Facebook.
Every single day 500 million tweets are shared on Twitter.
How are you and your business engaging in political advocacy in the 21st century? Are you engaged in the conversation? Are your competitors? Are you listening to the real-time business and political intelligence being shared online? Are you a part of those 4.75 billion Facebook updates, pictures, comments, etc and/or 500 million tweets shared?
I do not have an Ice Bucket Challenge idea for you, but I do have a political advocacy challenge for you...
Start to listen to the Members of Congress, the U.S. Senators, the state reps, and candidates for office from where you do business. Follow their campaign and official accounts. A follow doesn't equal an endorsement, but a follow allows you to learn from what is being said and make you more informed.
Have a conversation with your boss or the social media department of your company to better understand your business or association's new media rules. It doesn't cost you a thing to listen and you can always create a pseudonym account for you to do so. If you are allowed, try to engage with these individuals and campaigns online as either individuals or GR representatives of your business.
When candidates and Hill offices start to see comments from names they recognize through the work you do with them offline and/or directly coming from the brand and messenger of your company or association, you get additional brand exposure. And if you're creative, your message may get through some of the traps to get to the candidate. The to-be-released BIPAC/CMF white paper will have some tips for how you can do this and how your added political advocacy efforts can make a difference.

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Primary Recap & BIPAC Action Fund Endorsements

9/10/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Political Affairs

Senate:

NH: Former MA Senator Scott Brown won the Republican nomination with 50% of the vote. He is challenging Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in November.

House:

MA-06: Rep. John Tierney was defeated by Iraq War veteran and political newcomer Seth Moulton in Tuesday's primary. Moulton received 51% of the vote, Tierney, 40%. Scandal plagued Tierney, who faced his most competitive primary yet, barely won his 2012 re-election, winning by one point when President Obama carried the district by 11. Moulton now faces 2012 Republican nominee and BIPAC Action Fund endorsed former state Sen. Richard Tisei (R), one of the two openly gay Republicans running in 2014, who is known for his bipartisanship and working across the aisle.

NH-01: Former Mayor of Manchester and Rep. Frank Guinta won the Republican primary with 49% of the vote, with former UNH Business School Dean Dan Innis receiving 41%. Guinta previously won the seat in 2010 and was defeated in 2012 by Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D). They will face off again in November, in what is expected to be another competitive year for the district.

NH-02: State Rep. Marilinda Garcia won the Republican nomination with 50% of the vote. Garcia, who gained the support of the more conservative wing of the party, defeated former state Senator Gary Lambert. Republicans are excited about Marilinda, a 31 year old Hispanic woman, who has gained support across the Republican spectrum. While she has Tea Party support, she is also appealing to the business community. Rep. Ann Kuster (D) has the advantage in this race, but it is not one to count out.

BIPAC Action Fund Endorsements

Primary season is in the rearview and we are now only 55 days away from the general election. This next round of candidate endorsements, one Senate race and six House races, focus on key races that we expect to be competitive in November where one candidate is the preferred choice of the business community. If your PAC and senior leadership has not taken a side in these races, we would strongly encourage you to do so.

U.S. Senate

Mike McFadden (R- Minnesota): Businessman Mike McFadden is running to unseat Sen. Al Franken (D). Franken who has developed a workmanlike approach to service in the Senate, has not been particularly friendly to business, scoring only 20% on BIPAC's 112th Voting Record. First elected in 2008 by only a few hundred votes, Franken has often even voted against home state employer interests but has proven to be a prolific fundraiser and is running an aggressive campaign. Mike McFadden's background is largely financial services and he is currently on a leave of absence from his role of co-CEO at Lazard Middle Market and has the support of the local Minnesota business community. A Tim Pawlenty style campaigner, McFadden has also been endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Average polling has Franken leading by about 8 points but Obama is surprisingly unpopular in the state and Franken has continued to remain below 50% in his reelection numbers, a dangerous place for an incumbent with less than two months to go. www.mikemcfadden.com

U.S. House

Chris Gibson (R- NY 19): Congressman Gibson faces a general election challenge from investor Sean Eldridge (D). Gibson scored a 91% on BIPAC's 112th Congress scorecard and has been a reliable vote for the business community. A pragmatic Congressman and combat veteran, Gibson focuses primarily on fiscal and national security issues. This is a crossover district won by Obama in 2012. Eldridge, whose husband was a co-founder of Facebook, has generally self-funded his campaign and while he talks about working across the aisle, advocates issues that are among the most partisan and divisive and consistently opposed to business priorities. www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com

Dan Logue (R-CA 3): Assemblyman Dan Logue is running against Congressman John Garamendi (D) in the 3rd district. Logue was previously a county supervisor and business owner and one of the most intriguing candidates of the cycle. He has a perfect rating from NFIB and the California Chamber of Commerce, and is an active advocate for solutions oriented government. Garamendi, conversely, scored 4% on BIPAC's in the 112th Congress voting record and has demonstrated little interest in creating consensus solutions. Logue is a reformer at heart and has a history of very strong constituent advocacy and building bipartisan coalitions to battle corruption, incompetence and waste. President Obama won the 3rd district in 2008 and 2012, but in a midterm election this district has been known to be competitive. www.danlogue.com

Tom MacArthur (R- NJ 3): Businessman Tom MacArthur is running in the open seat to succeed retirement Rep. Jon Runyan (R). He faces Democratic nominee, Aimee Belgard (D) in the general election. This is another crossover district won by President Obama in 2012. MacArthur comes from a career in the insurance industry where he built and grew a small brokerage into a large multi-disciplinary company. He has been endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, NFIB, and the almost the entire local business community. www.tmac4congress.com

Dan Newhouse (R - WA 4): This is a top two primary state and two Republicans, Dan Newhouse and Clint Didier, advanced in the WA 4 open seat to replace retiring Rep. Doc Hastings (R). Newhouse is a farmer, former state representative, former state agriculture commissioner and has a demonstrated history of working with the business community in a bipartisan manner. Clint Didier is a former NFL lineman for the Washington Redskins and is endorsed by FreedomWorks and Ron Paul. When the retiring Doc Hastings announced his endorsement of Newhouse, Didier responded by saying he didn't want DC insider support and preferred "liberty loving patriots" to support his campaign. Much of the business community is rallying around Newhouse, especially due to his agriculture background. www.dannewhouse.com

Elise Stefanik (R - NY 21): Elise Stefanik is running to succeed Rep. Bill Owens (D). She faces Democratic candidate, Brooklyn-based grocer and filmmaker Aaron Woolf (D) who moved to the district for the campaign. 29 years old, Stefanik has an extensive small business and policy background, previously serving in the Bush administration and at the Foreign Policy Initiative. Stefanik is wrapping up the support of the local business community, including the New York State Builders Association and the New York State Automobile Dealers Association. She is also a member of the NRCC's Young Gun program. www.Eliseforcongress.com

David Young (R - IA 3): After a somewhat surprising convention win, Young faces Democrat Staci Appel in the race to replace retiring Congressman Tom Latham (R). Young was formerly the Chief of Staff to Senator Chuck Grassley (R) and is expected to operate in a similar manner. Young was one of the more business-oriented, mainstream candidates running in the GOP primary and his nomination certainly made this race more competitive. This district was carried narrowly by Obama in 2012. Young is gaining the support of the local business community, including the Iowa Corn Growers Association and Iowa Farm Bureau. www.youngforiowa.com

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September 03rd, 2014

9/3/2014

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by Mary Beth Hart, Director, Grassroots Services

There are two forces in play which should ignite voter attention and participation in this year's mid-term election:

First, our nation currently finds itself overwhelmingly unsatisfied with its government. According to Gallup's most recent Congressional Job Approval Rating, 83 percent of those polled disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job while only 13 percent approve and 4 percent have no opinion. Down Pennsylvania Avenue, the White House approval ratings also show the public's displeasure. President Obama's most recent weekly job approval rating is 53 percent disapprove, 41 percent approve, and 7 percent of respondents have no opinion.

The second force of 2014 is that this year is a mid-term, non-presidential election. History has shown that voter turnout drops during mid-term elections. You'd have to go back to the 1820s to identify an election where mid-term Congressional voter turnout out-numbered Presidential election turnout.

The combination of these two factors makes it increasingly important for the electorate to become educated on candidate platforms and to participate in the election on November 4th-a mere 61 days away.

In 49 states, voter registration is the required first step the voting public must take in order to participate in the election. Voters must register to vote if they are unregistered or, update their contact information if it is inaccurate or has changed. A 2012 study commissioned by the Pew Center on the States found that an estimated 51 million U.S. citizens are unregistered; which is more than 24 percent of the eligible population. In other words, just two years ago, nearly 1 in 4 eligible citizens were not registered to vote. The report goes on to explain, "approximately 24 million-one of every eight-voter registrations in the United States are no longer valid or are significantly inaccurate". Although concerning, what is even more alarming is the fact that registering to vote is easy and still, the eligible population, remains unregistered and/or does not participate in the election by casting a ballot.

Each state determines voter registration eligibility and the mechanism used to register. Many states have adopted new regulations to ease the voter registration process. Paper registration by mail or in-person, online registration, and registration at the Department of Motor Vehicles are some of the most prevalent voter registration options. Many have noticed the lack of voter registration. Communities around the United States have begun to mobilize voter registration efforts through various drives and initiatives. Employee Voter Registration Week is one such endeavor. Focused on increasing voter registration among private-sector employees, eligible voters can find state-specific information on registering to vote in the upcoming election. By centralizing voter registration logistics and information, voters will be able to complete simple steps to register to vote, learn about voting early, and find their polling place.

Increasing voter registration is only the beginning. During this mid-term election, voters will elect 435 members of Congress, 36 Senators, 36 Governors and countless state and local officials. One could hope that, if more voters showed up and were knowledgeable on each candidate's platform, approval ratings to increase. In 2010, the last mid-term general election, only 41 percent of the voting-eligible population voted in the election for their state's highest office (Governor, U.S. Senator, U.S. House of Representative). An increase in voter registrations in 2014 and subsequent increases in voter participation will ensure that more of the electorate has a say in which elected officials make it to the winner's circle on November 4th.

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What Issues May Impact the 2014 Elections?

8/27/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

With only four state primaries remaining and Labor Day as the traditional kick off of general election season, this week we will examine some of the issues that may impact the 2014 elections.

To date, most of the advertising from Republicans has centered on the negative impacts of health care reform while Democratic ads have largely accused Republicans of a "War on Women," generally focused on abortion rights and contraceptive access. While these issues will continue to be themes for both parties, there are a number of other factors that are likely to impact voters as well.

The most powerful of these issues going into November is the great disdain that Americans feel towards Congress and Washington. Not only are approval ratings for Congress at historic lows, but Americans' confidence in their government's ability to solve even small problems has shrunk to nothing. The party that is able to show voters a way out of the morass is likely to come out on top.

This summer has seen the development of several international crises that have brought foreign policy into the election discussion. As American prisoners are beheaded in the desert on TV, pro-Russian rebels shoot passenger planes out of the sky and the Israel-Gaza conflict wages on, Americans feel increasingly uneasy with our place in the world. A border crisis with thousands of unaccompanied children coming to the United States brings that anxiety closer to home. Combined with the lack of confidence in Washington to solve ANY problem, those tensions and fears can certainly end up impacting votes if one party or the other finds a compelling way to talk about them.

Back at home - immigration and health care policy are still making waves. With the ongoing border crisis, discussion on immigration reform is here to stay. With rhetoric on the issue touching on everything from racism to national security to economic prosperity, emotions around the issue are very raw. If President Obama changes deportation regulations and is seen as giving amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants, the electoral implications for 2014 and beyond could be enormous. In October, many insurance providers are expected to announce new rates for health care policies purchased on the state and federal exchanges. If they include significantly higher premiums, it could have an enormous impact on the results in November. If they are minimal, it makes it appear that the new system is working as intended and could help soften the fallout for Democrats.

The issue that gets lip service from candidates on both sides of the aisle is the issue that consistently ranks higher on polls than any other voter concern: jobs and the economy. For an economy that has been in "recovery" for almost six years, workforce participation is low, wages have been stagnant or lower than before the recession and economic confidence remains a very real concern. Candidates who are able to express an understanding of these anxieties and outline a path to improvement are likely to find themselves rewarded.

As confidence in Washington to do ANYTHING is at its lowest point ever, very real anxieties exist in areas of domestic economic conditions and international conflicts that raise questions about our foreign policy. With these huge free-floating anxieties hanging over the electorate as well as potentially big changes on hot button issues like immigration and health care premiums, the issues that drive votes in November have the potential to be significantly different than those we see in political TV ads today.

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Top 10 Most Competitive Senate Races

8/20/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President of Political Affairs

With primary season almost complete and political campaigns nearing the final sprint to Election Day, it is a good time to review which races are most competitive heading into Labor Day. In the Senate, Republicans need to pick up six seats to win a majority and control both houses of Congress. The last three years of a divided Congress (Republicans controlling the House, Democrats controlling the Senate) has led to gridlock in Washington. The Congress can’t even muster the political fortitude or agreement to name Post Offices and bridges anymore, much less pass things like an annual budget or appropriations. The result is the lowest approval ratings of Congress in history. Dissatisfaction with Washington is at depths never measured since polling began tracking such things.

Three seats currently held by Democrats are highly likely to switch to Republican control. Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota are all Democratic held seats in very heavily Republican states with well-funded and well liked Republicans. So, with three seats “in the bag” for Republicans, they need three more to win control of the Senate. The most competitive seats where they will try to do that are:

TOSS-UPS

LOUISIANA
Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu is running against Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy and a handful of other candidates. Louisiana voted for Romney by 18 points and holds an open primary on Election Day with all candidates on the ballot regardless of party. If no candidate receives 50%, a runoff election is held in December between the top two finishers, again, regardless of party. Polls show Cassidy and Landrieu neck and neck, but both under 50%, meaning the two will likely face off in a December 5 runoff. Landrieu is one of the most pro-business Democrats in the Senate and as the chair of the Energy Committee has been supportive of the extensive oil and gas interests in Louisiana, giving her a boost. In a run-off scenario however, Landrieu would face an uphill struggle to turn out base Democrat voters in a non-traditional election time. There are fewer African Americans in the state as many were displaced after Hurricane Katrina and base Democrats who remain are disenchanted. Landrieu’s family’s political legacy and her ability to bring independent and some Republican crossover votes make this an enormously competitive race.

NORTH CAROLINA
Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan is facing Republican state house Speaker Thom Tillis in what has been the most expensive election to date. Outside groups have already spent over $15 million on this race with pledges of much more to come. This attests to the very close split in the campaign. Hagan has been much more adversarial to the business community than Pryor in Arkansas or Landrieu, but North Carolina is a true swing state and Democrats are much better organized than in Louisiana or Arkansas. The massive number of attack ads already aired has had the effect of diminishing both candidates severely and many North Carolina voters already view the election as a choice for the lesser of two evils as each candidate is highly unpopular and there is a much larger number of undecided voters than would be expected at this point in an election. Polling has the race neck and neck with each candidate in the low 40s.

ARKANSAS
Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Pryor faces a tough re-election bid in 2014. He is being challenged by freshman Rep. Tom Cotton. While Pryor is relatively well liked in Arkansas, President Obama’s approval numbers in the state are dismal. The state is trending red and went to 2012 GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney by over 20 points but has a solid history of electing Democrats to the Senate and Governorship. Both candidates are showing impressive fundraising numbers and polling on average, has Cotton up three points. However, taking on an incumbent is hard especially for a newcomer like Cotton against Pryor whose family has generations of elected service in the state. Pryor is typically considered a pro-business Democrat in the state though his support of Harry Reid has made it difficult for him to break from his party on many significant occasions. Cotton has frustrated the business community on a handful of occasions as well as he has aligned himself with Ted Cruz and other tea-party oriented groups that are not always supportive of a pro-growth agenda.

ALASKA
The fourth Democrat incumbent running in a state carried by Mitt Romney is Mark Begich, who won the seat following the indictment and scandal surrounding longtime Senator Ted Stevens (R). Begich is the former Mayor of Anchorage whose father was a leading political figure in the state until his death in a plane crash in the 70s. Begich is the first Democrat to win federal office in Alaska in over 30 years. He faces former Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan who won the GOP primary against Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and tea-party activist Joe Miller. Begich has run a disciplined campaign to date and has highlighted his work in bipartisan collaboration with fellow Alaska Senator Republican Lisa Murkowski. Murkowski has pushed back however, asking him not to mention her in his ads and if Begich pushes too far he could draw Murkowski further into the race, but in active opposition to him. Polling has the race neck and neck and Sullivan has done an admirable job of positioning himself as a practical, business oriented Republican.

COLORADO
Democratic Sen. Mark Udall looked to be safe in his re-election bid, until Rep. Cory Gardner jumped in the race in February. Once Gardner entered, polling soon showed the two candidates statistically tied. Colorado went to President Obama (D) in 2012 by six points. As is the trend nationally, Obama’s approval ratings have dropped significantly in Colorado, hurting Udall’s election chances for 2014. Gardner got a boost when Bob Beauprez won the GOP nomination for Governor making that a competitive seat as well rather than the highly controversial Tom Tancredo which would have forced a large amount of ticket splitting for Gardner to win. Udall was helped when the anti-fracking ballot initiatives were shelved recently. The ballot issues caused a huge rift between the business community and environmentalists, both of whom Udall needs to be successful and having them off the ballot means he will not have the difficult balancing act he had before. This race is generally seen as the barometer of whether Republicans will sweep a large number of seats or not. If Colorado goes Republican, it is probably an indication of a larger Republican wave. If it remains Democrat, it likely means the Democrats have held off the worst of the GOP attacks.

IOWA
Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is retiring, leaving an open seat for 2014. The Democrats quickly rallied around Congressman Bruce Braley, while the Republicans had several candidates compete for the nomination. State Sen. Joni Ernst overwhelmingly won the GOP primary, despite the crowded field and that created momentum that has carried her into one of the most competitive races in the country. Ernst has proven to be an impressive candidate and is running one of the most disciplined campaigns in the field this year. Even in the primary, she consolidated tea party supporters with more traditional business establishment support and that broad appeal has served her well. Braley is a standard issue Democrat and even though Iowa has tilted Democratic at the Presidential level the last few years, Braley has made a number of unforced errors including disparaging comments about farmers and senior Senator Charles Grassley who is highly popular in the state. Also helping Ernst’s prospects is the highly popular Governor Terry Branstand running for reelection who has made high turnout amongst Republicans a priority. Branstand is close to Ernst and is putting the full force of his political organization to work to support her election. Polling at this point shows a dead even race.

LEAN REPUBLICAN

KENTUCKY
Republican Leader Mitch McConnell faces a competitive race from Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell also had a primary challenger, but McConnell's superior fundraising and organizational capacity left him little to worry about. The real competitive race is the general, and this is one of the Democrat’s two opportunities to pick up a seat in 2014. Current polling has the race very close despite the outsized Republican performance in Kentucky at the Presidential level. McConnell is known for his fundraising and campaign prowess, but Grimes is holding her own and even recently outraised the Senator. Grimes, 35, has a political pedigree in the state and has proven her ability to win statewide in the Republican heavy state as she currently serves as Secretary of State. The position, as in most states, is administrative and she hasn’t had to take any difficult votes and is attempting to position herself outside of the Obama administration, which is highly unpopular in the state, especially in the coal producing areas. McConnell, meanwhile, is the embodiment of “Republicans in Washington” as the Senate GOP leader, and has served as Senator for almost 30 years in a year when members of Congress generically are literally held in lower esteem than Darth Vader.

GEORGIA
Republican business executive David Perdue, former CEO of Reebok and Dollar General Stores, won a crowded and hard fought GOP primary and will take on Democrat Michelle Nunn in this open seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss. While Georgia hasn’t voted for a Democrat for Governor or Senator in over a decade and the state went solidly for Romney in 2012, Democrats are hoping Nunn can draw on the goodwill towards her father, former Senator Sam Nunn who is still very highly regarded in the state, as well as the fact that she has no voting record to pick apart. She will attempt to paint Perdue as a Romney-like corporate raider but in a Republican leaning state in a Republican leaning year, the odds are with Perdue. Ironically, Perdue can demonstrate his independence from the corporate world thanks to a high profile spat with the US Chamber of Commerce during the primary.

LEAN DEMOCRAT

MICHIGAN
This open seat features Democrat Congressman Gary Peters against Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. The state went for Obama by 10 points in 2012 but has a Republican Governor, Republican Legislature and a majority of its Congressional seats are Republican. When Land was elected Secretary of State, it was with the highest percentage of the vote of any Republican running statewide in recent history. She also has the ability to partly self-fund the campaign and has already put in over $2 million of her own money. Union groups in the state, especially autoworkers, are furious with Governor Rick Snyder for passing Right to Work legislation last year and have vowed an all-out voter mobilization and turnout effort that would benefit Peters should it materialize. While every state tends to see non-Presidential year electorates that are slightly older and less minority than Presidential year turnouts, this is especially pronounced in Michigan for some reason, giving Republicans an almost even playing field in off-year elections as opposed to Presidential year turnout. Peters has still been able to maintain some lead in the polls and the Democratic tilt of the state make it an uphill climb for Land though it is a race both parties are heavily invested in.

MINNESOTA
Republican business executive Mike McFadden is taking on Democrat incumbent Al Franken. Franken has been a reliably Democratic vote, sometimes at the expense of home state interests but has proven himself to be a serious policy maker who gets the job done for his constituents. McFadden is an attractive candidate with the ability to raise substantial financial resources. Franken won in 2008 by less than 1000 votes but polls to date show him with a consistent lead but still with less than 50% of the vote and Obama with a surprisingly weak approval rating in the state.

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