- They win the governor’s race in California, Florida or Texas.
- They keep the majority in the House or Senate.
- Senator Harry Reid wins again.
- They keep the Majority in the House but offload their renegades such as the Blue Dogs.
- President Obama gets credit for saving the incumbents whom he campaigned for in the closing days.
- They pick up a Senate seat currently held by the Republicans – extra points if it is Ohio or Missouri.
- Exit polls show the election was not about President Obama.
- Colorado looks as if it stays in the blue column.
- They have a freshman Senate class bigger than two.
- They lose control of the House, but their numbers stay above 200.
- Unlikely voters who were ignored by pollsters show up and back Democratic Senate incumbents, especially in the “firewall” states of California, Washington and Wisconsin.
- Enough first-time voters from 2008 return to the polls to vote for Democrats, especially in campus communities.
- GOP loses seats they currently hold because the anti-incumbent mood affects both parties.
- Democratic infrastructure targets base voters who appear in higher numbers than predicted.
- Voters get cold feet about selecting untested GOP candidates.
- Democrats turn on a charm offensive and win on personal qualities.
- President and First Lady Obama are effective in rallies across the nation.
- Hispanics and African Americans vote in higher numbers than expected.
- The enthusiasm gap was overrated.
- +10 and +39 are big numbers for the GOP to pick up.