Stakes in the States Series
There are 36 states with governor’s races in 2014. The current party breakdown for governorships is 30 Republican and 20 Democratic. There are currently six open seats in AR, AZ, NE, MD, MA and TX meaning there are 30 governors running for re-election. Despite Republicans having a ten seat advantage, several current Republican governors won election in the Tea Party wave of 2010 and nine Republican governors are up in states that Obama won in 2012. As such, Republican governors are now running for re-election in states that are far more moderate than they’ve governed, leaving them more vulnerable than their Democratic counterparts. Below is a list of the top four most vulnerable Republicans and top four most vulnerable Democrats running for re-election in 2014. We’ve provided an overview as to why they are at risk and listed the most recent race ratings from several top political analysts as well as those from BIPAC.
Top Four Vulnerable Republicans
Gov. Rick Snyder (MI)
BIPAC: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Leans Republican
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -8
Snyder’s approval ratings dropped drastically after signing Michigan’s “right-to-work” law last December. While it has improved in the past few months, it has not fully recovered. His recent decisions regarding Detroit’s bankruptcy have helped him with approval ratings, but his support for expanding Medicaid is now costing him with Republicans. This is a state that Obama won in 2008 and 2012.
Gov. Paul LePage (ME) BIPAC: Toss Up/Lean D Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Dem/Indy; changed from Toss Up on 8/8/13 538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -12 LePage has faced attacks from both sides of the aisle during his time in office, most recently with his own party over Maine’s budget, supporting a government shutdown over the legislature’s bipartisan agreement. The potential three-way race shaping up could help him again if he runs in 2014, just as it did in 2010.
Gov. Rick Scott (FL)
BIPAC: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -20
Rick Scott, one of the more vulnerable governors in the country, could see a primary challenge from his own party. His approval ratings have been improving a bit recently, with Florida’s economy regaining some strength and his reversal to support Medicaid expansion in Florida (though he was unable to win legislative support for it).
Gov. Tom Corbett (PA)
BIPAC: Toss Up/Lean D
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Toss Up
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -14
Corbett has a lot working against him for 2014. He has yet to get his “big three” campaign promises passed, including transportation funding, liquor privatization and public employee pension reform. Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is also often above that of the national average, and Corbett has been highly criticized for his handling of the Penn State scandal when he was attorney general.
Top Four Vulnerable Democrats
Gov. Dan Malloy (CT)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Leans Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval +6
Malloy faced a large drop in approval ratings when he signed the largest tax hike in Connecticut’s history, during his first year as governor. Connecticut has also been ranked the worst state for economic growth the past two years. Malloy has gained some popularity of late, due to his support of gun control legislation in the state. This may not however, be enough to offset the lack of support for his economic policies.
Gov. Lincoln Chafee (RI)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Likely Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -40
Chafee’s biggest problem for re-election is Rhode Island’s economy. For July 2013, it was ranked third in the nation, with an unemployment rate of 8.9 and was rated the second worst state for business by CNBC in 2013. Chafee has recently switched parties, from Independent to Democrat, which could help his chances at winning re-election.
Gov. Pat Quinn (IL)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Likely Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -24
Quinn’s approval ratings are so low it is very possible he will face a primary challenger, which is where he will be most vulnerable in the deep blue state. Like several of the governors on this list, Quinn’s unpopularity has a lot to do with the economy. Illinois has faced major budget problems under Quinn, including a $100 billion pension crisis; the worst faced by any US state. Quinn has halted payments for state lawmakers until they pass pension reform and is now being sued by members of his own party for the pay freeze.
Gov. Hickenlooper (CO)
BIPAC: Likely D
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Solid D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Safe Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval +33
Hickenlooper could be potentially vulnerable for two main noneconomic reasons- his recent stances on the death penalty and gun control legislation. A Quinnipiac survey found that his handling on both issues, granting temporary reprieve to a man on death row, and supporting gun control legislation, went against public opinion in Colorado. Whether or not these will be enough to make Hickenlooper a one term governor has yet to be seen.
There are 36 states with governor’s races in 2014. The current party breakdown for governorships is 30 Republican and 20 Democratic. There are currently six open seats in AR, AZ, NE, MD, MA and TX meaning there are 30 governors running for re-election. Despite Republicans having a ten seat advantage, several current Republican governors won election in the Tea Party wave of 2010 and nine Republican governors are up in states that Obama won in 2012. As such, Republican governors are now running for re-election in states that are far more moderate than they’ve governed, leaving them more vulnerable than their Democratic counterparts. Below is a list of the top four most vulnerable Republicans and top four most vulnerable Democrats running for re-election in 2014. We’ve provided an overview as to why they are at risk and listed the most recent race ratings from several top political analysts as well as those from BIPAC.
Top Four Vulnerable Republicans
Gov. Rick Snyder (MI)
BIPAC: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Leans Republican
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -8
Snyder’s approval ratings dropped drastically after signing Michigan’s “right-to-work” law last December. While it has improved in the past few months, it has not fully recovered. His recent decisions regarding Detroit’s bankruptcy have helped him with approval ratings, but his support for expanding Medicaid is now costing him with Republicans. This is a state that Obama won in 2008 and 2012.
Gov. Paul LePage (ME) BIPAC: Toss Up/Lean D Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Dem/Indy; changed from Toss Up on 8/8/13 538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -12 LePage has faced attacks from both sides of the aisle during his time in office, most recently with his own party over Maine’s budget, supporting a government shutdown over the legislature’s bipartisan agreement. The potential three-way race shaping up could help him again if he runs in 2014, just as it did in 2010.
Gov. Rick Scott (FL)
BIPAC: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -20
Rick Scott, one of the more vulnerable governors in the country, could see a primary challenge from his own party. His approval ratings have been improving a bit recently, with Florida’s economy regaining some strength and his reversal to support Medicaid expansion in Florida (though he was unable to win legislative support for it).
Gov. Tom Corbett (PA)
BIPAC: Toss Up/Lean D
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Toss Up
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -14
Corbett has a lot working against him for 2014. He has yet to get his “big three” campaign promises passed, including transportation funding, liquor privatization and public employee pension reform. Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is also often above that of the national average, and Corbett has been highly criticized for his handling of the Penn State scandal when he was attorney general.
Top Four Vulnerable Democrats
Gov. Dan Malloy (CT)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Leans Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval +6
Malloy faced a large drop in approval ratings when he signed the largest tax hike in Connecticut’s history, during his first year as governor. Connecticut has also been ranked the worst state for economic growth the past two years. Malloy has gained some popularity of late, due to his support of gun control legislation in the state. This may not however, be enough to offset the lack of support for his economic policies.
Gov. Lincoln Chafee (RI)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Likely Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -40
Chafee’s biggest problem for re-election is Rhode Island’s economy. For July 2013, it was ranked third in the nation, with an unemployment rate of 8.9 and was rated the second worst state for business by CNBC in 2013. Chafee has recently switched parties, from Independent to Democrat, which could help his chances at winning re-election.
Gov. Pat Quinn (IL)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Likely Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -24
Quinn’s approval ratings are so low it is very possible he will face a primary challenger, which is where he will be most vulnerable in the deep blue state. Like several of the governors on this list, Quinn’s unpopularity has a lot to do with the economy. Illinois has faced major budget problems under Quinn, including a $100 billion pension crisis; the worst faced by any US state. Quinn has halted payments for state lawmakers until they pass pension reform and is now being sued by members of his own party for the pay freeze.
Gov. Hickenlooper (CO)
BIPAC: Likely D
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Solid D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Safe Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval +33
Hickenlooper could be potentially vulnerable for two main noneconomic reasons- his recent stances on the death penalty and gun control legislation. A Quinnipiac survey found that his handling on both issues, granting temporary reprieve to a man on death row, and supporting gun control legislation, went against public opinion in Colorado. Whether or not these will be enough to make Hickenlooper a one term governor has yet to be seen.
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