Now that you are done shaking your head at the headline above, let me explain. Mitt Romney (R) has secured 52.8% of the delegates necessary to secure the Republican nomination while President Obama (D) has secured 50.5% of the delegates necessary to secure the Democrat nomination. All this points out is that to secure the nomination under the new rules of the game that it simply takes a lot longer, regardless if you are in a contested battle or an unopposed incumbent, to secure a party nomination for president. While the nomination for the president is clearly a given, the nomination for the Republicans is now a one person delegate count race for Romney.

Rick Santorum (R) scored a decisive victory in Louisiana last Saturday (49% to 27% for Romney), but the race for delegates was hardly effected following the 34th of 56 contests. This near insurmountable delegate lead for Romney is clear in the table below where Santorum needs to win over 70% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination and both Newt Gingrich (R) and Ron Paul (R) need well over 80%.

Estimated GOP delegate count:

Let’s take a look at some other interesting questions/issues to consider over the next few weeks as we are about to turn the calendar to April:

• U.S. Senate – Control for the Senate is highly competitive and a major determining factor that will decide this will be the quality of candidates. Over the next few months, key states in this battle (to name a few – Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Florida, Nebraska, Indiana and Maine) will settle their primaries and thus shape the fall contests. Several states will fall (or rise) in the rankings of competitive states based on primary election outcomes.
• Health Care at SCOTUS – The U.S. Supreme Court hears the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act/“Obamacare” case this week. Will this case alter the outcome of elections in November? No matter the decision, how many people will, after two years of intense media coverage, finally come to their own decision on this issue and then decided that they will support or oppose the president as a result? I would expect a ton of media coverage, a ton of political ads, a ton of fundraising off of the decision, but very few people changing or making up their mind on which candidate(s) to vote for in November.
• Anti-incumbent year or not? – So far, incumbents are holding on, but clearly the mood of voters is that of someone who has their back against the wall and can quickly decide to toss out an incumbent who is perceived to be part of the “problem.”
• Turnover – The number of new faces going to Washington in the next Congress is going to be big…again. Of the 33 seats up in the U.S. Senate, 10 are open seats. In the U.S. House, there will be at least 53 new faces next January as a result of retirements, running for other offices and redistricting battles where two incumbents face each other. As we continue to move through candidate filings, primaries and eventually the General Election, these numbers will obviously rise and could easily reach 75 freshmen in the House.
• Movement of Independent voters – Independent-minded voters are always a big prize in any contested election. Will this critical voting group begin to settle on a candidate now that fall matchups are starting to take shape?
• Energy/gas price politics – No other price of a product in this country is as well known as the price of gas. None. Gas prices are visible on every other street corner and a change in price often leads to a rush of new media stories. How high (or low) will gas prices be late in the summer, what can/will the President/Congress do about them and how engaged will voters and the energy industry be leading up to the election. With the Vote4Energy campaign, the energy industry has clearly put its chips on the table.
• Manufacturing – This election is about jobs and that largely means manufacturing jobs. Follow the number of manufacturing jobs in key states like Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina to get a good snapshot of how well incumbents will do at the ballot box in competitive races.
• VP Choice – People are starting to ask, but I will save this one for a later article.

Where does the GOP race go from here (number of delegates)?

• April 3 – WI (42), MD (37) and DC (19)
• April 24 – NY (95), PA (72), CT (28), RI (19) and DE (17)

Freshman Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) defeated twenty year veteran Rep. Don Manzullo (R) in a primary battle that provided for some clear contrast in age and experience between the two incumbents by a 56% to 44% margin. Kinzinger is widely viewed as a young rising star in congress and the temperature of the race was turned up in recent days as various members in the Republican House leadership contributed to both candidates and raised the eyebrows of many in the GOP caucus.

His strong performance in this primary will only strengthen his solid reputation on the campaign trail. Following redistricting, the new IL-16 contained 44.1% of Manzullo’s old IL-16 compared to 30.9% of Kinzinger’s old IL-11 district. Predictably, the old part of each incumbent’s district went strongly for the familiar candidate, but in the 25% of the district that neither candidate ran in back in 2010, Kinzinger was able to win a commanding percentage to overcome Manzullo’s advantage of a larger starting base of familiar voters. Kinzinger is currently unopposed to win re-election in the general election.

In another high profile primary battle in Illinois, Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) faced a challenge that never materialized as competitive from former Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D). Jackson won handily by a 71% to 29% margin in IL-2. Halvorson was defeated after serving just one term in 2010 by Kinzinger.

The IL-10 Democrat primary battle to face GOP incumbent Bob Dold also received considerable attention. Many organizations with more liberal leanings were backing Ilya Sheyman, who was unsuccessful against the candidate who was a better match to other Democrats in the district, Brad Schneider.

With Democrats firmly in control of the redistricting process in Illinois, several GOP freshmen will face much tougher battles in November. The likely gains made simply through redrawing lines will provide Democrats with more gains here than any other state. Reps. Walsh (IL-8), Dold (IL-10) and Schilling (IL17) all are sitting in new districts that President Obama won with at least 60% of the vote in 2008 while Reps. Kinzinger and Hultgren are in districts that Obama won.

Incumbents Bobby Rush (D-IL1), Dan Lipinski (D-IL3), Danny Davis (D-IL7), Jan Schakowsky (D-IL9), and Tim Johnson (R-IL13) all received more than two-thirds of the votes in their contested primaries.

Through the four states that have held congressional primaries, incumbents running against challenger candidates (and not other incumbents) have now won 41 of 42 contests (97.6%). Despite this high early re-election rate, the next Senate and House will have another large freshman class as a result of open seats created by retirements, redistricting and other factors. There will be at least 53 freshmen in the House and at least 10 more in the Senate when January rolls around. Here’s an early look at how the next freshman class compares to past elections:

With candidate filing not yet closed in several states and 46 states still to hold their primaries, the 2012 election is guaranteed to produce a larger class than the last redistricting cycle of 2002.

2012 congressional incumbent vs. incumbent matchups:
Democrat incumbents facing each other in the PRIMARY (7):

• CA-30 – Brad Sherman (D) & Howard Berman (D)
• CA-44 – Janice Hahn (D) & Laura Richardson (D)
• MI-14 – Hansen Clarke (D) & Gary Peters (D)
• MO-1 – Lacy Clay (D) & Russ Carnahan (D)
• NJ-9 – Steve Rotham (D) & Bill Pascrell (D)
• PA-12 – Jason Altimre (D) & Mark Critz (D)
• OH-9 – Marcy Kaptur (D) & Dennis Kucinich (D) – Kaptur defeated Kucinich

Republican incumbents facing each other in the PRIMARY (4):

• AZ-6 – Ben Quayle (R) & David Schweikert (R)
• FL-7 – John Mica (R) & Sandy Adams (R)
• IL-16 – Adam Kinzinger (R) & Don Manzullo (R) – Kinzinger defeated Manzullo
• LA-3 – Jeff Landry (R) & Charles Boustany (R)

Incumbents facing each other in the GENERAL (2):

• IA-3 – Tom Latham (R) & Leonard Boswell (D)
• OH-16 – Jim Renacci (R) & Betty Sutton (D)

Fueled by a set of GOP voters that are a better ideological match and a set of voters that will more closely resemble those needed to win independent voters in swing states, Mitt Romney handily won the Illinois presidential primary contest. Approximately 53% of GOP primary voters in Illinois hail from Chicago, Cook County or the five surrounding counties. This large urban/suburban mix of voters continued to perform well for Romney over Santorum and provided a large enough margin to offset any gains made by Santorum in the more conservative rural and down-state GOP voters.

With 99% of Illinois precincts reporting, Mitt Romney secured 47% of the vote (and an estimated 40 delegates) compared to 35% for Rick Santorum (and 11 delegates), 9% for Ron Paul and in fourth place Newt Gingrich received 8% in the Illinois presidential primary.

The delegate count continues to grow for Romney and at this point he is the only candidate with a realistic chance of mathematically clinching the GOP nomination before the primary season concludes in June. Any objective measuring stick (delegates won, votes, contests won, money raised, organization and outside support) used to compare campaigns favors Romney and has done so for a considerable amount of time.

Estimated GOP delegate count:

Where does the GOP race go from here (number of delegates)?

• March 24 – LA (46)
• April 3 – WI (42), MD (37) and DC (19)
• April 24 – NY (95), PA (72), CT (28), RI (19) and DE (17)

A significant story coming out of the first congressional primary last week in Ohio was the defeat of two incumbents in the primary (one by a fellow incumbent due to two incumbents running against each other as a result of redistricting). In Alabama and Mississippi candidates need to win at least 50% of the primary vote to avoid a runoff election. At the end of the day, all incumbents won the majority of the primary vote and avoided a runoff election.

The race receiving the most attention was the Sixth District race Alabama where Rep. Spencer Bachus (R) faced three opponents. The Financial Services Committee Chairman was first elected in 1992 and is currently the focus of an Office of Congressional Ethics investigation involving insider trading allegations. State Senator Scott Beason (R) was the strongest opponent and gained attention for his involvement in Alabama’s attempts to limit illegal immigration. Bachus spent consider resources, in excess of $1.5 million, and was able to win nearly 60% of the vote to Beason’s 27% and will now face Penny Bailey (D) in the general election.

Rep. Jo Bonner (R-AL1) won 56% in a four-way primary and will return for a sixth term. In a rematch of a 2010 primary, Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL5) received 71% of the vote in his contest against Parker Griffith (R). Brooks won the three-way 2010 contest 51% to 33% over Griffith.
Alabama’s current delegation is 6-1 Republican and with little changes to the map as a result of redistricting, the delegation’s partisan balance will likely remain unchanged.

The closest contest in Mississippi saw Rep. Alan Nunnelee (R) avoid a runoff by winning 57% of the vote in a three-way Republican contest where Vernon Mayor Henry Ross (R) also ran in the 2010 primary. Nunnelee was first elected in 2010 when he defeated incumbent Travis Childers (D) by a 55% to 41% margin.

Reps. Bennie Thompson (D-MS2), Gregg Harper (R-MS3) and Steve Palazzo (R-MS4) faced nominal challenges in their respective primaries and all received in excess of 70% of the vote. In 2010, Palazzo defeated ten-term incumbent Gene Taylor (D) by a narrow 52% to 27% margin.
Mississippi’s delegation will likely remain 3-1 Republican, and its redistricting had little impact on the new districts.

With the results from the American Samoa and Hawaii caucuses not coming in until well past midnight on the East Coast, a big story line was not revealed until late (4:30 am ET). For as big of a win as Santorum enjoyed before midnight, Romney ended up winning the most delegates from the four contests held. Romney won all nine delegates in American Samoa and won the first ever Hawaii caucus with 44.8% of the vote to 25.4% for Santorum, 18.7% for Paul and 11.2% for Gingrich (with 87% reporting).

The unofficial delegate count from the four contests nets Romney 50 delegates, Santorum 30, Gingrich 24 and Paul 0 (15 delegates have not been allocated).

Races are usually won by the candidate who is simply the best match to the voters regardless of ideology, party or even money. In Alabama and Mississippi you would expect a more conservative candidate to win and that is exactly what happened. The conservative candidate with more momentum heading into these two southern states was Rick Santorum and he recorded two big wins where GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney finished third in both states. The failure of Newt Gingrich to win in his home region and to finish ahead of fellow conservative Santorum significantly hurts, more likely ends, any chance to reach the White House. With two conservative candidates in the race, Romney’s close finish kept Santorum from a decisive win and a much larger net gain in much needed delegates.

Santorum won Alabama with 34.5% to Gingrich’s 29.3%, Romney’s 29.0% and Paul’s 5.0% (with 98.4% reporting) and won Mississippi with 32.9% to Gingrich’s 31.3%, Romney’s 30.3% and Paul’s 4.4% (with 99.3% reporting).

In presentations I have been giving to companies and groups around the country this year I have been talking about how important numbers are to elections and the significance of perception versus reality. I have also been talking about how you have to reset the race for the GOP nomination every time a candidate decides not to run (last year, think Christie, Daniels, Barbour, Palin etc.), a candidate drops out (Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman, Cain etc.) or it becomes evident that a remaining candidate is no longer viable. The last time the GOP race experienced a major reset was when Rick Perry dropped out on January 19. Following the last couple of weeks and the results out of Alabama and Mississippi last night, a strong argument can be made that Ron Paul and Gingrich no longer have a path to victory.

Estimated GOP delegate count:

As the table above shows, for Gingrich to win the nomination, he needs to win nearly three out of four of the remaining delegates and Paul needs to win more than four out of five of the delegates. Game over. If you accept that premise, this major reset now means the GOP contest to face President Obama in the fall is now down to a two-candidate race. At this point, throw every poll out the window and take a new look at every upcoming contest. With that written, Romney has a clear numbers advantage in delegates won and Santorum is facing a steep hill to climb to win the GOP nomination and must win nearly two out of three of the remaining delegates to win.

The ups and downs following each state contest has also led to several minor resets in perception. The perception battle out of Alabama and Mississippi was clearly won by Rick Santorum who won the statewide vote totals in each state. In the delegate race, Santorum’s net gain of 6 delegates in Alabama and Mississippi was diminished by Romney’s wins in the Hawaii and American Samoa caucuses. At the end of the night, Romney’s net gain for Tuesday was 20 delegates. Since Super Tuesday, Romney’s net gain was 39 delegates.

Mathematically, the earliest Romney can reach the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination is May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia) and the earliest Santorum can clinch is May 29 (Texas). Gingrich and Paul cannot clinch until June 5 (California, New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana or New Mexico).

Following the results of Super Tuesday here is a candidate status update:

• Ron Paul – Zero victories.  Zero delegates scored last night.  Zero chance remaining.
• Newt Gingrich – Has now lost the fight over conservative voters to Santorum.  His campaign laid out a southern strategy to win the nomination, but lost three of the four southern states bordering his home state of Georgia.
• Rick Santorum – The good news for Santorum is that he recorded strong victories in Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi in the last week and is clearly positioned as the only remaining candidate that can keep Romney from winning the nomination.  The bad news for Santorum is that he barely made a dent in the delegate count against Romney.
• Mitt Romney – Sans the field being cleared (unlikely), Romney cannot clinch the GOP nomination until one of the last ten contests.  The May 29 Texas or June 5 California primaries may be the state that secures the needed delegates for the nomination.
• The most delegates, the most victories, the most money raised, and the best campaign organization all add up to Romney continuing to remain the GOP frontrunner.  However, a few of the upcoming states are not the best match for Romney, but his delegate advantage will continue for at least the remainder of this month.
• Barack Obama – Officially, the unopposed incumbent has just crossed 60% of the delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination.  Officially doesn’t matter.  What matters is that Obama continues to build a money and grassroots war chest for the fall.

Where does the GOP race go from here (number of delegates)?

• March 17 – MO (52)
• March 18 – Puerto Rico (23)
• Mach 20 – IL (69)
• March 24 – LA (46)
• April 3 – WI (42), MD (37) and DC (19)