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Who is the Tea Party? 

3/19/2014

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The truly revolutionary thing about the beginning of the "Tea Party" is that it was really a grassroots movement in the most traditional sense of the term. There was no central national leadership. There was no grand statement of principles. There was no money involved. There were only groups of concerned citizens who began organizing themselves at the local level - in coffee shops, restaurants, or community centers - because their rising frustration over federal debt, taxes, and spending finally boiled over. They shared a sense of alienation from a big government with no regard for how its policies impacted "regular" Americans. Justified or not in their beliefs, millions of people of every race, religion, and political party began organizing themselves based on this simultaneous belief that the government had finally gone too far and somebody, ANYBODY, even a regular person like themselves, needed to at least try to do something about it. It was genuine. It was real. And it was enormously powerful.

Five short years later, "Tea Party" has become synonymous with "ultra conservative Republicans" and obstructionist government. It shouldn't be. At least the concerned citizens who launched the Tea Party movement shouldn't be thought of that way. The name became co-opted by Washington, the way anything of real value and power tends to be. Various groups, unconnected to the grassroots Tea Party movement, were created in their name. Now these groups attempt to lay claim not only to the Tea Party title, but also mantle of conservatism, even attempting to define who is a "real" Republican. The groups do not represent Republicans. They don't represent conservative thought. They don't even represent the ideals of the original Tea Party movement. They represent the interests of those running the groups. Nothing more, nothing less. The irony of a national group claiming to represent Tea Party interests is that the power of the movement came from its beliefs in decentralized authority.

Concerns about high taxes, spending, debt, burdensome regulation, and government responsiveness have not faded. If anything, they are more broadly shared than ever before. Because of their sway among young voters, these issues are likely to remain an important part of the political conversation for a generation. Polls show millennials to be more conservative on these issues than their elders. Younger voters are increasingly disconnected from and mistrustful of traditional social institutions especially government, political parties, the church, or local civic associations. Smaller, less involved government is "in."

So, while the organizing ideals of the Tea Party are an important and growing part of the country's fiscal policy conversation, the movement's brand has been marginalized because of the very groups that claim to champion it. Freedom Works, the Senate Conservatives Fund, Club for Growth, the Madison Project and others claim to represent "conservatives" and the "Tea Party" and frequently substitute the terms with their own brands interchangeably to suit their purposes. For example, when Sen. Mitch McConnell said that Senate Conservatives Fund candidates were being "crushed" all around the country, the internet lit up with deceptive emails, press releases and blog posts that McConnell wanted to "crush conservatives" around the country. Whenever these groups or their tactics face criticism, they quickly protest that "conservatives are under attack" though the "attackers" are almost inevitably political figures who have championed conservative ideology their entire career.

These groups have adopted the same tactic as some unions but in an even more guileless way. When the National Education Association is criticized, they respond as if the criticism were made against every teacher in the country. These groups that have taken on the name of the Tea Party are even more nefarious, because at least teachers choose to be members of the NEA, these groups have designated THEMSELVES as representatives of conservative thought. With fewer and fewer voters identifying as Tea Party supporters, even while the issues that inspired the movement increase in prominence, these groups have clearly set back the very ideals they claim to champion.

The lesson is largely semantics, but the semantics are important as we look at the 2014 elections and talk about the candidates and voters involved. The "Tea Party" as we currently think of it is no longer representative of the voters that created it. And it certainly isn't representative of the mantle of "conservatism" in any rational sense of the word. These groups claim that designation but it is for their own benefit, not for any ideology and not for any grassroots voter movement. When the business community positions itself in support or opposition to candidates, we must remember that there are thousands and thousands of "true" Tea Party voters that are focused on the same fiscal issues important to growing prosperity. It's a shame their brand has been stolen by those who have so misused it.
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Republican David Jolly Wins Florida 13 Special Election

3/12/2014

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In a race that polls had neck and neck through Election Day, David Jolly was declared the winner of the special election in Florida's 13th district to replace deceased Congressman Bill Young. Republican (and BIPAC endorsed candidate) David Jolly won by approximately 3500 votes out of over 183,000 votes cast against former state CFO and 2010 Gubernatorial candidate Democrat Alex Sink. Unofficial results had the final tally at 48.5% for Jolly and 46.5% for Sink with the balance for the Libertarian candidate.

Going into Election Day, 125,000 votes had already been cast through early or absentee voting in the Tampa-area district, with Republicans casting 4600 more than Democrats (though WHO the votes were for is obviously not known). This mirrored the registration percentages in the district which has 37% registered Republicans, 35% Democrats and 24% Independents. It was a district that Obama carried narrowly in both 2008 and 2012.

More than any shift in the balance of power in the House, the race represented a first test of messaging and tactics in a swing area for both parties. Both parties invested heavily to test advertising themes and hoped to gain momentum heading into the summer campaign season. Over $5 million was spent on behalf of Jolly while almost $4 million was spent to support Sink.

The top issue in the race was ObamaCare - with both sides attacking the other on the issue. Sink, who supports ObamaCare but wants to make fixes, accused Jolly of wanting to turn back the clock to when those with preexisting conditions could be denied coverage. Conversely, Jolly and the GOP accused Sink of supporting an expensive law that ended up costing coverage to thousands of Floridians. Another issue that played a role, and will likely show up regularly in the midterms, was Social Security. The issue took additional importance here because almost ¼ of the voters in the district are over 65, but the attacks on both sides were familiar from past elections with Jolly interested in exploring some private options for younger workers. Sink, 65, made a strong appeal to these senior voters, highlighting the age difference with the 41 year old Jolly.

Ultimately, the campaign does little to change the dynamics of Congress for the remainder of the year and there will likely be a rematch in the general election in November with wider turnout that it is impossible to predict at this point which candidate benefits. With a virtual tie going into Election Day in both polling and, more importantly, early votes cast, the "on the ground" turnout efforts made the difference. Jolly's victory demonstrates that the GOP may have caught up with the ground game efforts that Democrats pushed so heavily in 2012. It stands as a stark reminder to the business community that the ability to register, educate and turn out voters is still the primary driver of elections. Employer to employee communications is dramatically more impactful and less expensive than ten million dollars on television as was seen in this race. BIPAC looks forward to working with you to actively engage employees on the ground in elections important to your business or industry.
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Shifting Political Landscape Offers Business Additional Election Opportunities

3/5/2014

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The political landscape has shifted pretty dramatically in just the last 2 months. Since January 1, numerous additional retirements have been announced and several candidates have picked up significant new challengers. There are now 38 House retirements, including several of the Congress' longest serving members, many in districts that will not be competitive in a general election. While some of these districts have heirs apparent, many do not and it is in these primaries that the business community can play an outsized role in selecting pro-business members who will likely hold the seat for a number of years. While the overall electoral direction isn't significantly different, the details are and it is in some of those details that the business community holds additional opportunity.

Many of the House retirements or resignations over the last 8 weeks have come in strongly Democratic leaning districts. Some races already have likely replacements lined up, including long serving members, George Miller (CA-31) and John Dingell (MI-12) (State Senator Mark DeSaulnier in California and Rep. Dingell's wife, Debbie Dingell, in Michigan). Most open seats already have crowded competitive primaries where the business community should engage to elect the most pro-business candidate possible. These include Rob Andrews (NJ-1), Mel Watt (NC-12), Rush Holt (NJ-12), Carolyn McCarthy (NY-4), Jim Moran (VA-8), Gloria Negrete McLeod (CA-35), Ed Pastor (AZ-7), and Henry Waxman (CA-33). None of these seats are likely to switch to Republicans, but several have pro-business Democrats running who can shift the temperament in Congress. In NJ 1, state Sen. Donald Norcross has gathered support from Rep. Andrews, along with other top ranking state Democrats, but faces a primary challenge from Mayor Frank Minor. Both NC-12 and NJ-12 have a large field of Democratic candidates, including several state representatives and senators. Expect both primaries to be competitive. In McCarthy's open seat, Democrats seem to be rallying around Nassau District Attorney Kathleen Rice, though others are still considering getting into the race, including Nassau Legislative Minority Leader Kevin Abrahams. Moran's open seat in Virginia is another district with an extremely crowded primary. The early frontrunner is former Lieutenant Governor and car dealership owner Don Beyer, a pro-business candidate to watch. The race for McLeod's open seat is just shaping up, but state Senator Norma Torres has already announced her bid. Pastor's open seat in Arizona has gained several candidates, and it is even rumored that Congresswoman Sinema (AZ-9) may switch to the solidly Democratic 7th seat to run in 2014. In CA-33, 2 frontrunners have emerged from the crowded race, former Los Angeles Controller Wendy Greuel and state Senator Ted Lieu. Ted Lieu has the early backing of the California business community.

In addition, there have been a handful of recently announced retirements (and one resignation) in solidly Republican districts including Trey Radel (FL-19), Cory Gardner (CO-4) and Buck McKeon (CA-25). Radel's Florida seat will be filled by special election, where several candidates have announced, including state Senate Majority Leader Lizbeth Benacquisto who has a long record of working effectively with the business community. The race to replace Gardner, who is running for Senate, is still in the early stages, though Ken Buck who was running for Senate, has dropped his bid and will now run for Gardner's seat. McKeon is retiring from Congress and former state Sen. Tony Strickland (R) is running for his seat in this Republican favored district.

In the Senate, a few races have changed dramatically over the past few weeks. Senator Pat Roberts' challenge from physician and Tea Party candidate Milton Wolf became more competitive than expected, though revelations about Wolf mocking autopsy photos on Facebook have kept the race in Roberts' favor. In Mississippi, the Club for Growth, who endorsed state Senator Chris McDaniel, has officially started going after Cochran in the race. This is one of the most competitive Republican primaries to watch for 2014. Colorado Rep. Cory Gardner's (R) announcement that he will challenge Sen. Udall (D) made that race suddenly competitive and one that should be followed closely by the business community. The Virginia Senate race is one that also may move into the competitive category as Republican Ed Gillespie's campaign continues to take shape.

While the broad strokes remain the same - the Republicans have a reasonable shot at taking the Senate majority and are expected to hold the House or possibly extend their majority - the details of who will be sitting in Congress have been shaken up over the past 8 weeks. This shake up presents the business community a number of crowded and competitive primaries in which they can play an important role in shaping the tenor of the next Congress. BIPAC looks forward to working with you to maximize your engagement in any of these races that may be most important to you.
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