Pennsylvania’s longest serving member of congress, Rep. Tim Holden (D), loses while one more of the thirteen incumbent versus incumbent contests as a result of redistricting is completed. In a primary contest that was close and hotly contested, Rep. Mark Critz (D) narrowly defeated Rep. Jason Altmire (D) in the newly drawn 12th district by a 51% to 49% margin. Both of these races featured interesting geographic and even ideologically divides as a result of the new district lines.

Despite having the early lead in most polls and, more importantly, nearly 65% of his old 4th district in the new 12th district, Altmire was not able to withstand the labor union support Critz received. While just 29% of Critz’s old district remained in the new 12th district, approximately 40% of the final vote tallied came from Critz’s old district. The final margin was just over 1,200 voters out of nearly 63,000 votes cast.

Altmire, an executive with the large University of Pittsburgh Medical Center prior to joining congress, was one of the few Democrats who voted against the President’s health care package in 2010 and generally had a much more conservative record on economic issues than the voting record of Critz. As a result, over 20 labor unions supported Critz and provided his campaign with a significant infusion of grassroots workers, particularly in the part of the old district that remained in the new district.

Following redistricting and the retirement of the incumbent in 1992, Rep. Tim Holden (D) first ran and began his twenty year career in Congress. Having recently risen to be the dean of the Pennsylvania delegation and following redistricting in 2012, Tim Holden remained in the 17th congressional district with only 21% of the district remaining in the newly drawn district. In addition to a significant geography change, the new district clearly has a more liberal bend than the moderate to conservative district Holden had been representing. As a member of the high profile Blue Dog Coalition, Holden became much more vulnerable in a primary and was defeated 57% to 43% by attorney Matt Cartwright (D), who was supported by several liberal organizations. Cartwright now faces Scranton Tea Party Leader Laureen Cummings (R) in the general election.

The defeat of Altmire and Holden marks the exit of two more members who are generally viewed as more moderate congressman.

In what has been a rather quiet U.S. Senate contest to date, Republican voters threw their support behind western Pennsylvania businessman, Tom Smith (R), who received nearly 40% of the vote in a five way primary battle and who will now challenge incumbent Senator Bob Casey (D) in the general election. Smith has immediately shifted his attention to Casey by focusing on what he describes as the many economic mistakes made by Casey and his party leaders. Casey won the Democratic primary with over 80% of the vote.

By spending heavily over his opponents, Smith was able to fend off Steve Welch, who had the support of more established Republicans and many considered to be more electable in the fall. While the support for the incumbent is not deep, Casey remains a strong favorite to remain in the U.S. Senate.

In what has now become a foregone conclusion, Mitt Romney (R) easily won the Pennsylvania presidential primary and also recorded victories in Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Rhode Island. The timeline for Romney to mathematically clinch the required number of delegates to secure the Republican nomination will now accelerate while the campaign trail rhetoric for Romney, and the President, will be completely focused on a general election matchup.

With the Republican nomination no longer being a competitive battle, the absence of this race will have some minor impact on the outcome of some of the upcoming congressional primary battles in states like North Carolina and Indiana.

Which congressional district to be made more competitive and give Democrats a chance to pick up a seat was a hot topic in Annapolis during redistricting. The “lucky” winner was district six, a seat held by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R). Barack Obama (D) won this new district with 56.3% in 2008 and clearly gives Democrats a shot at picking up this seat in November. The district now includes the western portion of Democratic-leaning Montgomery County and the Maryland panhandle. The Democrat primary was hotly contested despite the large victory margin for financier John Delaney over state senate majority leader Rob Garagiola (54% to 29%). The contest received additional attention when former president Bill Clinton endorsed Delaney. Early voting, particularly in Montgomery County, was a key indicator and an area of clear strength for Delaney.

In the Republican primary in the Sixth District, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett received 44% of the vote in a primary with eight candidates. Bartlett’s strongest opponent was state senator David Brinkley who garnered just under 20% of the GOP vote.

The remaining seven incumbents in the House from Maryland are all expected to hold onto their seats in November. The U.S. Senate seat hold by Ben Cardin (D) is also up this cycle, who won the primary with nearly 75% of the vote and is a near lock to win re-election in November.

While it has been clear for several weeks that the only GOP candidate that has a chance to win the race to 1,144 delegates has been Mitt Romney (R), an important shift is now taking place among voters and the Romney campaign. This shift is now even more evident after Romney had his strongest night of the primary season – he won all three contest and at least 83 out of the 92 delegates up for grabs (6 additional RNC delegates are not bound to the results) while the remaining candidates won 0 delegates. In terms of percentage of delegates won on an election night with multiple contests, last night was the strongest election night this primary season for Romney.

The shift is that Romney, President Obama (D), a large number of voters and media are now viewing the presidential contest as incumbent Obama versus Romney. In his comments from Wisconsin, Romney did not mention any other GOP candidate and focused his comments on the economy and on the President. Earlier in the day, the President mentioned Romney by name for the first time this year. While a complete shift will happen just yet, that day is quickly approaching.

If you are sad that the GOP race is no longer as interesting as it was a month ago and need your campaign fix, don’t worry because we have plenty of interesting races on the horizon. We still have at least eleven member versus member contest, high profile primary contests such as the GOP primary for U.S. Senate in Indiana and several interesting races in California, Pennsylvania and Arizona. Also, the Wisconsin recall election of the Governor, Lt. Governor and four state senators are each significant battles.

In Maryland, Romney won the statewide vote with 48% of the vote (Rick Santorum received 30%) and every congressional district. In the District of Columbia, Santorum failed to gain a spot on the ballot and Romney won 70% of the vote. Both contests were expected to be won by Romney. Virtually every demographic voting group was won by Romney.

In the big contest of the night, Romney won Wisconsin over Santorum 42% to 38%. Romney ran strongest in the southwest corner of the state in population bases around Milwaukee, Madison and Kenosha. While Santorum won the majority of counties, the rural parts of Wisconsin do not make up the majority of GOP primary voters.

Estimated GOP delegate count:

Where does the GOP race go from here (number of delegates)?

• April 24 – NY (95), PA (72), CT (28), RI (19) and DE (17)

The primary now shifts to five contests in the northeast region, including Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania where a last stand will be the headline maker.