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Courts and Lawsuits Will Settle Redistricting Where Legislature Fails

5/25/2011

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The list of state legislatures that either has already failed or about to fail in drawing congressional and state legislative maps is starting to grow.  It is likely that the courts will decide maps in Colorado, Minnesota and Nevada.  Courts in Mississippi have already ruled that their 2011 state legislative elections will be held under maps passed last decade.  Lawsuits have been filed or have been threatened in a host of states, including Texas, Colorado, South Carolina and Virginia.

With that intro, here are some redistricting updates since last week’s article:
Alabama
State Legislature will put off redrawing state maps until 2012.
Arkansas
Target date to finish is August 1, 2011.
Florida
Committee will meet in early fall to finish redistricting.
Illinois
It looks like the Democrat controlled legislature will have no mercy on the five Republican freshmen representing them in Congress.  Maps introduced by Democrats clearly weaken each of the five new Republicans chance to see a second term.  Illinois is home to five of the 22 Republican freshmen in states where Democrats control or have the advantage in redistricting.  Illinois is also losing one congressional district due to reapportionment.
Kentucky
State Legislature will hold a special session in July to draw maps.
Maryland
A late summer or early fall special session will likely be called to handle redistricting.
Minnesota
Republican controlled legislature has approved maps and Democrat Governor Mark Dayton has vetoed the bill citing a lack of bipartisan support.  This will likely shift the map drawing process to the courts.  The current congressional delegation is the only delegation to be evenly split between Republicans and Democrats (4-4).
Nebraska
The Unicameral legislature has one more vote remaining on the redistricting bill.  The proposed bill moves areas of the 2nd congressional district to the west of Omaha and territory that is more Republican.  In 2008, Obama won the 2nd district and was awarded one electoral vote since Nebraska allocates three of its five electoral votes to the winner of each congressional district.
Texas
Big state.  Big population growth.  Big redistricting fights.  State Legislature has passed state maps after a drawn out fight on how many districts will represent the Austin area.  Legislature is slow on starting the process for congressional maps and has until May 30 to pass.
Wyoming
Public meetings on redistricting are scheduled to take place from May 25 – August 16.
Current status on the congressional redistricting process:
Completed congressional redistricting:
AR, IA, IN, MO, OK
Completed congressional redistricting, waiting on approval from the Department of Justice due to compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965:
LA
State Legislature failed to draw a new map.  Map will now be drawn by a Court:
CO, MN, NV
Current status on the state legislative redistricting process
Completed state legislative redistricting:
IA, IN, MO, NJ, OK
Completed state legislative redistricting, waiting on approval from the Department of Justice due to compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965:
LA, VA
State Legislature failed to draw a new map. Map will now be drawn by a Court:
MS, NV
With the conclusion or near conclusion of several state legislative bodies, the attention will begin to shift to special sessions and redistricting commissions over the next couple of months.  We will continue to provide updates to you on this activity and will give you more analysis on states that have completed the redistricting process.

> Check out our maps detailing the current congressional redistricting approval status.
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Redistricting Tensions in CO and TX, Finished in IN, MO and OK

5/17/2011

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The action and battlegrounds are almost always in the states and redistricting is a perfect example of this.  State Legislatures, Governors and Redistricting Commissions are drawing boundary lines and finding creative ways to pass their maps.  A few more states (IN, MO and OK) have recently succeeded in this attempt while a couple have had bitter fights seeing the legislative process break down and fail to approve new maps (CO, MS and NV).

As I will point out in the comments regarding Louisiana below, keeping an eye on the Voting Rights Act (VRA) states when you have opposite party control converging for approval (Democrat White House/Department of Justice vs. states with Republican controlled redistricting process) could provide for some interesting fireworks.  The VRA applies statewide in seven states that Republicans have complete control over the redistricting process (AK, AL, GA, LA, NC, SC, TX).  Pay very close attention to Texas.  The VRA applies to some counties or townships in two additional states that Republicans have complete control over the redistricting process (FL and MI).

Here are many of the top redistricting updates since my last update:
Alaska
Ron Miller, Executive Director of the Alaska Redistricting Board, died unexpectedly on May 8.  The Redistricting Board is responsible for the State House and Senate maps while the Congressional maps are drawn by the State Legislature.
Arizona
Colleen Coyle Mathis, Chairwoman of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, has stated that they expect to have maps drawn by the fall.  Following reapportionment, Arizona gained one congressional seat and will now have nine seats.
Colorado
Legislative Session?  Completed.  Maps finished?  Not a chance!  Blame game being played?  Oh, yeah.  The Governor could call the State Legislature into a special session to try to draw the maps, but that is unlikely and the next step should a showdown in the Courts, where Democrats and Republicans have already filed their own lawsuits.
Georgia
Governor Nathan Deal is expected to call a Special Session for August 15 to tackle redistricting.  Following reapportionment, Georgia gains one seat, giving the state 14 seats.
Indiana
Done.  While Republican leaders talked about compact districts and keeping communities of interest together, they performed gerrymandering surgery on the new Congressional and State Legislative maps.  Republicans will have a good opportunity, with the right candidate and environment, to pick up the 2nd district seat held by Democrat Rep. Joe Donnelly and change the delegation to 7-2 Republican from 6-3 Republican.  Freshman Rep. Todd Rokita (R-4th) will move back into the 4th and will be the prohibitive favorite to win in 2012.
Louisiana
While the state has completed redistricting, the maps must be approved by the Department of Justice (DOJ) as a result of the VRA.  Keep an eye on this since the Republicans drew the Louisiana maps and the DOJ is a Democrat administration.  Louisiana will likely be the state to answer the question of which is more important in a VRA state – control of the House, Senate and Governor’s office or control of the White House and DOJ?
Mississippi
A three judge federal panel has given the Republican Senate and Democrat House a firm directive of redrawing new state legislative maps immediately or run the 2011 state legislative races under the current district lines.  It is highly unlikely a special session will be called and that both parties could agree upon drawing new maps by the June 1 candidate qualifying deadline to hold elections this year.  The current maps will thus be used for the 2011 elections, the 2012 legislative session will redraw maps and the possibility of a special election before the 2011 term that ends in 2015 exists.  With the completion of the legislative session, a special session will be required to complete the congressional maps to meet the current January 1, 2012 candidate qualifying deadline.
Missouri
Done – with drama.  Republicans controlling the House and Senate finally figured out how to sing off the same page and passed their Congressional and State Legislative maps.  Democrat Governor Jay Nixon quickly vetoed the maps, which puzzled many Democrats since this gave Republicans enough time in the current session to conduct a veto override vote.  After some deal making, four House Democrats sided with Republicans and the veto-proof Senate followed suit to override the Governor’s veto.  Due to reapportionment, Missouri lost one seat and Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-3rd) is left without a district, although he may run in MO-02.
Nevada
The Democrat controlled legislature approved maps last week and Hispanic Republican Governor Brian Sandoval vetoed them.  Like Colorado, Nevada will be heading to the Courts and force judges to play cartographer.  Sandoval stated, “In the last 10 years, the Hispanic community in our state has grown significantly.  The law and common sense requires that we recognize this fact and afford Hispanics an equal opportunity to election representatives of their choosing.”  The packing versus spreading out of Hispanic voters in districts will continue to be a hot button issue in many states.  At the State Senate level, Clark County (Las Vegas) will likely be represented by 15 of the 21 districts.
Oklahoma
Done and uneventful.  Over 98% of voters will remain in the same congressional district and none of the five districts changed by more than 2.5%.  Oklahoma’s delegation is 4-1 Republican and will likely remain unchanged.
Texas
Current fight is over how many state senate districts will be represented by Austin.  Legislative end date is set for May 30.
Virginia
The State Legislature has set a June 9 date to reconvene to discuss Congressional maps.
Current status on the congressional redistricting process:
Completed congressional redistricting:
AR, IA, IN, MO, OK
Completed congressional redistricting, waiting on approval from the Department of Justice due to compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965:
LA
State Legislature failed to draw a new map.  Map will now be drawn by a Court:
CO, NV
Current status on the state legislative redistricting process
Completed state legislative redistricting:
IA, IN, MO, NJ, OK
Completed state legislative redistricting, waiting on approval from the Department of Justice due to compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965:
LA, VA
State Legislature failed to draw a new map. Map will now be drawn by a Court:
MS, NV
We expect the steady flow redistricting updates to continue as several states are deep in their legislative process, commissions are beginning their work and challenges are starting to emerge.  We will continue to update you on the states we have already highlighted and will present new states in the coming weeks.

> Check out our maps detailing redistricting control in each state.
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A Reflection on Osama bin Laden from Outside the White House

5/3/2011

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by David Baker

When I was 12 years old my parents’ divorce was unfolding and I felt alone facing the harsh realities of the “real” world. I already considered myself “grown up”, or so I thought. In September I saw footage of the first tower getting hit right before I left for school. When I arrived everyone was talking about it but the school had told all the teachers that they were not to turn on the TV’s at all. Mrs. Fitz, my Spanish teacher, disobeyed that order and my class watched in stunned silence as we saw the second plane hit, shocked when we saw the Pentagon, and paralyzed by fear when the towers fell.

That moment our entire world changed. An era of post-cold war economic prosperity became an era of orange threat levels, security scans, and the Patriot Act. That day I truly grew up, even though I didn’t realize it until Sunday night. I remember being terrified when I heard about the bombing in Afghanistan in October 2001 and when I heard about the attacks on the UK underground on 7/7, but by the time the Madrid train bombing, Mumbai hotel bombing, the shoe bomber, underwear bomber, et al. had happened I was numb to the fear. I had accepted the fact that this simply was the world we lived in.

Rather than be paralyzed by fear I took steps to try and be prepared against a possible attack (I still have an anti-hijacking plan in my head just in case) but one thing always struck fear in my soul and, like a dense layer of smog was always there. That looming menace, like the boogeyman, was Osama Bin Laden. Not until Sunday night when I rushed down to the White House, swung from the gates on Pennsylvania Avenue, and chanted with my fellow human beings did I realize what an oppressive layer of fear he had created. Like coming up out of the fog and into the sun, I can truly see how expansive the fear was. Now my fear has been lessened and I feel a sense of relief.

Sunday night I drove to my office a block from the White House and joined with my brothers and sisters, almost all around my age in a cathartic celebration. We were the generation that had been too young to be mad about 9/11 and could only be fearful of the changed world. We rejoiced in the streets because collectively we all felt this relief. It didn’t matter what ideology you came from Sunday night, you were relieved. I saw signs for Bush/Cheney, Hillary, McCain/Palin, flags from America, Palestine, Israel, Egypt, and “Don’t Tread on Me”, people from every corner of the world. I saw the men carrying the Israeli and Palestinian flags embrace at the collective joy we all felt.

There has been concern and debate about whether the chanting in the streets is right when it mirrors the appalling “Death to America” rallies across the Middle East these past ten years. However, what makes Sunday night’s rally different is that, like the Egyptians in Tahir Square, we were not calling for the death of anyone, but rather we were celebrating our personal and collective liberation from the fear inspired by a mass murderer.

Until this point in my life I could never truly understand the joy of V-day but last night I think I tasted a glimpse, it was pure unadulterated relief.
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