• GOP candidates Dewhurst and Cruz move to a runoff for U.S. Senate in Texas
• 12 congressional races go to a runoff election on July 31
• Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D) loses to Beto O’Rourke (D), all other incumbents survive
• Mitt Romney clinches delegate race to GOP nomination

Timing can be everything. I cannot help but wonder how different the Texas primary election results might have looked if the primary had been held on the original March 6 date. The primary election was moved to last night, just one day after Memorial Day, due to a failure in approving new maps for redistricting in a timely fashion. David Dewhurst (R) arguably tops 50% without having to drop part of the family fortune on a tight race while Mitt Romney (R) would never record 70% a few months ago. Instead, Dewhurst will face Ted Cruz (R) in a July 31 runoff while Romney clinched the number of delegates needed to win the GOP nomination for president in Texas.

Gov. Rick Perry (R) supported his Lt. Governor David Dewhurst from the start and Dewhurst lead this race from day one to replace the retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R). After winning a special election in 1993 and serving three full terms, Hutchison leaves as the longest serving Republican female in the Senate and won all four of her contest with at least 61%. Dewhurst lead all nine candidates with 45% of the vote, but failed to top 50% that is needed in Texas to avoid a runoff election featuring the candidates with the top two vote totals in the primary election. Cruz received 34% of the vote. Cruz was able to close the gap by performing stronger with Election Day voters (won by Dewhurst 42% to 37%) compared to those that voted prior to Election Day (won by Dewhurst 48% to 30%).

I have made several visits to Texas in the last year and spent some time in the Texas panhandle last week. There was a clear consensus on the ground that Dewhurst would finish ahead of Cruz, but fall just short of the magic 50% number. It was also clear, from ads and social media, that each candidate was battling to “out conservative” the other candidate to win the nomination. This race also saw over $6 million being spent from outside groups making it the most expensive Senate contest so far this year.

Here are the Texas GOP Primary results for the top four U.S. Senate GOP candidates with 98.5% reporting:

Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and ESPN personality Craig James finished a distant third and fourth place. The Leppert support around the Dallas area will be a major battleground in the runoff election.

In the Democratic primary, former state Rep. Paul Sadler (D) will face educator Grady Yarbrough (D) in the runoff election. Sadler received 35% while Yarbrough received 26%. This is the first time in Texas history that both Republicans and Democrats will have a runoff election for U.S. Senate at the same time. The Republican nominee will begin the fall contest as the favorite to win.

Notable items from the Texas primary:

• Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-TX16) was defeated by Beto O’Rourke (D). A runoff was narrowly avoided with a 50.47% to 44.35% victory margin for O’Rourke. The district is a strong Democrat district. Reyes served eight terms.
• Rep. Ralph Hall (R-TX4) was the only incumbent to win with under 60% of the vote. Hall received 58.9%.
• In the newly drawn District 23, Obama won by a narrow 50%-49% margin helping to shape what will be a highly competitive fall contest where Democrats have freshman Rep. Francisco Canseco (R) high on their target list. Canseco was unopposed in the primary. Former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) who lost to Canseco in 2010, just missed avoiding a runoff with 48%. Rodriguez will face state Rep. Pete Gallego (D) in a July 31 runoff. Gallego received 38%.
• Democrat runoff elections will take place in TX5, TX7, TX16, TX23, TX27, TX33 and TX34
• Republican runoff elections will take place in TX14, TX15, TX25, TX34 and TX36
• In the battle to replace Rep. Ron Paul (R) in TX14, nine GOP candidates faced off in a significantly different district post redistricting. State Rep. Randy Weber (R) and Pearland City Council member Felicia Harris will battle again in a runoff election. The winner will be a strong favorite in this Republican district.
• Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX35) garnered over 73% of the vote and will face a strong candidate in Susan Narvaiz (R) in the fall where Doggett will be favored.
• Texas gains four seats due to reapportionment and now has 36 congressional districts. There will be at least seven freshman elected in the next Congress from Texas. Right now, only California with nine will send more new faces in January.

With congressional primaries now complete in 14 states, incumbents in the U.S. House have won 100 out of 101 races where the incumbent is on the ballot and not facing another member of congress. A 99% winning mark doesn’t exactly look like an anti-incumbent election year to date. While there are plenty of incumbents on the hot seat and several will lose this cycle, the election is not so much about being an incumbent. The election is more about where a candidate (incumbent or challenger) stands on moving this county’s economy forward. In the increasingly more competitive U.S. Senate, 5 of the 6 incumbents have won (83%).

In Kentucky, five of the six incumbents are seeking re-election and only one faced an opponent in their primary. In the Louisville-based 3rd district, three term Rep. John Yarmuth (D) easily dispatched his lone perennial opponent, Burrel Farnsley, with over 86% of the vote and will face Brooks Wicker (R), who ran unopposed in the GOP primary, in November. While KY-3 was made a slightly more Democrat district following redistricting, many districts that are along the Ohio River tend to be districts that can and will switch their support for Democrat or Republicans. Many of these Ohio River districts have switched party control during the last decade, including KY-3 when Yarmuth beat incumbent Rep. Anne Northup in 2006. Yarmuth also defeated Northup in a 2008 rematch. Republicans will hope that the President will be a drag on Yarmuth’s numbers and that the financial advisor Wicker, who lost in the 2010 GOP primary, can catch fire to make this a competitive race.

Representative Geoff Davis (R) is one of 45 House members not seeking re-election to the House this year creating an open seat in KY-4. The 4th district stretches from east of Louisville to the West Virginia border in the east with the Covington area (Cincinnati suburbs) serving as the population base of the district. Tea Party backed candidate, Thomas Massie (R), was able to fight off better known Republican candidates state Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington and Boone County Judge Gary Moore.

Bill Adkins (D) won the Democrat nomination and will now face Massie in the fall. Massie, who holds two engineering degrees from M.I.T. and is the Lewis County Judge Executive, will be a heavy favorite in what may now be the most Republican district in the state following redistricting. Sen. Rand Paul (R) cut an ad for Massie and Massie cites massive cuts in government spending at the county level as a major achievement.

In Arkansas, the three Republican incumbents seeking re-election, Rep. Rick Crawford (R-AR1), Rep. Tim Griffin (R-AR2) and Rep. Steve Womack (R-AR3) were all unopposed in the primary.In the 4th district, incumbent Rep. Mike Ross (D) is not seeking re-election. The Democrat winner looking to replace Ross will be decided with a June 12 run-off between state Sen. Gene Jeffress (D) and attorney Bryum Hurst (D). Jeffress received 40% to 36% for Hurst. To avoid a run-off, a candidate needed greater than 50% of the vote. The winner will face Republican nominee Tom Cotton, who avoided a run-off with 57% of the vote. Cotton, an Army veteran and management consultant, received support from several conservative organizations and was the leading fundraiser. Cotton will be the slight favorite to win in November and would thus likely make the Arkansas delegation 4-0 Republican. Also on the horizon for Arkansas could be a party change at the state legislative level to Republican control.

Similar to a handful of other Southern states, President Obama recorded low winning percentages in both Arkansas and Kentucky. And, like the other states before, these numbers really mean nothing at the end of the day. These states are not in play in trying to achieve the quest to receive the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Conventional wisdom, polling and pundits for weeks and even months pegged a Jon Bruning (R) versus Bob Kerrey (D) contest to replace Ben Nelson (D) in the U.S. Senate. Someone forgot to tell state senator Deb Fischer (R). At the end of January, Fischer polled fourth out of four candidates and trailed Bruning, the Nebraska Attorney General, by 41 points (47% to 6%). Last night, Fischer won 78 of 93 counties and performed exceptionally well in smaller counties, typically winning 45% to 55%.

Here are the Nebraska GOP Primary results for U.S. Senate with 100% reporting:

Fisher has served two terms in the Nebraska Senate, representing the largest district in the Senate that covers most of north central part of the state. While each of the three main candidates received noteworthy endorsements (Fisher was endorsed by Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, Sarah Palin and Herman Cain), most of the fight in this contest was between Bruning and Stenberg. Bruning and Stenberg (plus a few outside groups) ran numerous hard hitting ads against each other and largely left Fischer untouched in the minds of voters and thus opened up a path to victory.

Fischer’s opponent is a well known face to Nebraska politics – former Governor and former U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey. Kerrey easily won his uncompetitive Democratic primary with over 80%. Kerrey is trying to win back the seat he gave up in 2000 to Ben Nelson.

While Fischer is a slight favorite to win in the fall, you can bet that both sides will pour significant resources into Nebraska given that partisan control for the U.S. Senate is up for grabs. The Tea Party will also use the Nebraska win (along with the Mourdock over Sen. Lugar win in Indiana last week) as a momentum builder for staunchly conservative candidates. In the end, if Republicans are to gain the majority they must flip the Nebraska seat. For Democrats, holding this seat would almost guarantee control for the next Congress.

Rep. Lee Terry (R) sits in a district that President Obama (D) won in 2008, thus giving one electoral vote to Obama since Nebraska awards its electoral votes proportionally. This Omaha-based district could be competitive in the fall, as Terry will face Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing (D).

Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE1) and Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE3) both won their primaries with over 80% and are strong favorites to win in November.

Congressional primary contests were also held in Idaho and Oregon. In Idaho, Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID1) and Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID2) both won their primary contests with over 70%. In Oregon, only Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR4) faced a primary opponent. Follow this – DeFazio defeated his primary opponent, Matthew Robinson (D), 90% to 10%. DeFazio will now face Art Robinson (R), the father of Matthew Robinson in the fall.

With 92 of 93 House incumbents winning their primaries to date (not counting the three member versus members contests), 2012 is not shaping up to be an “anti-incumbent” year so far. Nor will it. Some incumbents will surely lose, but it will have more to do with them being perceived as more of a problem associated with a failure to “fix” the economy rather than a candidate who creates jobs and moves the economy and country in a positive direction.

Sen. Dick Lugar (R), the longest currently serving Republican U.S. Senator and the longest in Indiana history, was defeated by state treasurer and tea party candidate Richard Mourdock (R) by a 61% to 39% margin. In the history of the U.S. Senate, very few members have served longer than Lugar’s six terms, cast more votes or have demonstrated constant statesmanship during increasingly more partisan times. Despite this, Hoosier voters just simply said “thank you for your service, but it’s been long enough” and then voted to make a change. And just like that, nearly fifty years of honorable and productive public service comes to an end.

Mourdock, a tea party favorite who has moved to the right over the last few years, will now face off against Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) in November. Donnelly, a moderate Democrat, will make the case that he is better positioned to capture the independent vote in a lean Republican state and will likely attract significant resources for his campaign. With the defeat of Lugar, there are now 11 open U.S. Senate seats (6 Democrat, 4 Republican and 1 Independent).

With the defeat of Lugar, that creates an open U.S. Senate seat with a very conservative Republican candidate, an open gubernatorial seat with a very conservative Republican candidate, and recognizing that Obama (D) carried Indiana in 2008, don’t be surprised to see a significant effort by national Democrats be competitive in Indiana. Also, look for the election results to be closer than many would anticipate even though Republicans will be favored in each of these three contests.

The most competitive race of the night was in the 5th district of Indiana, where three strong candidates competed in a strong Republican district. In the end, former U.S. Attorney Susan Brooks was able to hold off former U.S. Representative David McIntosh and the highly regarded Dr. John McGoff who nearly defeated Rep. Dan Burton in a previous attempt by a 30% to 29% to 23% count. Brooks ran strongest in Marion County (Indianapolis) and captured 3,706 more votes than McIntosh in this part of the district. The final difference district-wide was just over 850 votes. Brooks will be the heavy favorite to win in November over state representative Scott Reske (D).

While the tea party had huge success with Mourdock, Rep. Larry Bucshon (R) was able to easily hold off tea party candidate Kristi Risk (R) in the 8th district by a 58% to 42% margin. Former state representative and radio personality Dave Crooks (D) easily won his primary and now sets the stage for a competitive Bucshon vs. Crooks general election contest. Former state representatives Jackie Walorski (R) and Luke Messer (R) also won their primaries in open seat contests. Walorski will be a slight favorite to win while Messer is a strong favorite to replace Rep. Mike Pence who is running for Governor.

Like Indiana, North Carolina has an open gubernatorial contest, three open congressional seats, voted for Obama in 2008, and are the two most likely states to flip and vote Republican in 2012 for president.

In January, popular North Carolina Governor Perdue (D) announced that she was not running for re-election and thus set the stage for what could be one of the couple most competitive gubernatorial races in the country this year. Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) won an uncompetitive six-way primary with over 83% of the vote. McCrory lost to Perdue in 2008. Lt. Governor Walter Dalton (D) won a competitive primary over former seven-term congressman Bob Etheridge (D) by a 46% to 38% margin. Fundraising often shows support and Dalton was able to out raise Etheridge by a $1.4 million to $312 thousand advantage while McCrory has raised $3 million.

After nine terms, Rep. Sue Myrick (R) is retiring and sees eleven candidates vying for the GOP nomination in the 9th district. The two highest vote getters, at 32% and 25%, where former state senator Robert Pittenger (R) and Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) Sheriff Jim Pendergraph (R). However, since no candidate received the necessary 40% needed, a runoff election will be held July 17. Pendergraph had won the endorsement of the Charlotte Observer, but it was then rescinded after he made comments regarding President Obama’s birth certificate.

With redistricting significantly altering the ideological makeup of the 11th district, Rep. Heath Shuler (D) is retiring. Shuler’s former chief of staff, Hayden Rogers (D), easily won a three way primary with over 55% of the vote. In the GOP primary, businessman Mark Meadows (R) was the leading vote getter with 38% to Vance Patterson’s (R) 24%. Meadows and Patterson will face each other in a July 17 runoff and the winner will be favored in November.

Another district that was dramatically changed as a result of redistricting and greatly improved: Republicans’ chances of switching party control of a seat is in the 13th district. Rep. Brad Miller (D) is retiring and the two Democratic candidates have yet to file campaign finance reports with the Federal Election Commission. On the Republican side, former U.S. attorney George Holding (R) was the favorite going into the primary and was able to top the 40% mark with 43.5%. Holding will be the favorite in the fall. Holding defeated former Raleigh mayor Paul Coble (R) holding off charges that Holding used his position of U.S. attorney to pursue the prosecution of failed presidential candidate John Edwards over improperly using donor money.

Republicans improved their opportunities to flip party control of seats in North Carolina more so than in any other state, and the 7th district is another example where incumbent Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) now runs in a district where John McCain (R) won 58% in 2008. His challenger will be state senator David Rouzer (R), the choice of the GOP establishment over 2010 candidate, Iraq veteran and former Goldman Sachs worker Ilario Pantano (R). Rouzer won by a 48.5% to 44.5% margin. This district is clearly a top pick up target for the GOP.

Like McIntyre, Rep. Larry Kissell (D) faces a much tougher district in 2012. McCain won this newly drawn district with 57% in 2008. Kissell will have to wait until a July 17 runoff to find out if his November opponent is Richard Hudson (R) or Scott Keadle (R). Hudson received 32% and was backed by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) while Keadle, a tea party supported candidate, received 22% and had the backing of the conservative Club for Growth.

In West Virginia, little was at issue in the primaries for Governor, U.S. Senate or the three congressional districts. Looking to the fall, incumbent Governor Earl Ray Tomblin (D) will face businessman Bill Maloney (R) in a rematch. Popular U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D) will face businessman John Raese. Each of these incumbents plus the three congressional incumbents will be favored in the fall with an outside chance that Republicans can create a competitive race against Rep. Nick Rahall (D) in the 3rd district.

You know it is a slow night in a state when the most interesting story was that a federal prisoner received 41% of the vote against an incumbent president in a primary. Strange? Yes. Does it mean anything in November? No.

The Wisconsin Recall election of Governor Scott Walker (R) is now set. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) defeated Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk (D) 54% to 38%. The Democrat party establishment largely supported Barrett while most labor union groups backed Falk. Walker defeated Barrett in 2010. From now until the June 5 general election, you can expect this race to be as expensive and ugly as any race we will see this year.