• Huge week for the U.S. Supreme Court.
• Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY13) fends off challenge in New York.
• Major fires and evacuations in Colorado disrupt lives and elections.
• Rep. John Sullivan (R-OK1) ignores primary for too long and loses.
• Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT Sen) easily survives in Utah.
• Remembering the GOP Presidential contest.

It is not often that the U.S. Supreme Court would have so many decisions handed down in one week that will attract so much attention, but this week is the exception. Significant decisions were handed down Monday on immigration and a follow-up to support their Citizens United decision. On Thursday, it is expected that the biggest ruling of the year will be handed down on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Each of these three issues are hot button issues with key constituencies or voting groups, but at the end of the last Election Day in November, this election will still be about jobs, economy and pocket book issues that matter to families.

State in the spotlight – NY
Many would point to 21-term Rep. Charles Rangel (D-13) as the example to use as why Congress needs to be fixed. The voters on Manhatten Island disagreed one more time. Rangel was able to hold off state Sen. Adriano Espaillat (D) by a 45% to 40% margin (with 84% reporting). Despite ethics issues that lead to Rangel’s censure by the U.S. House and changing demographics of the district (the district is now majority Hispanic), the incumbent survived a tough test.

Two Upstate districts will result in competitive, high-profile General Election contests. Rep. Kathy Hochul (D-27) will be in a tough contest with Chris Collins (R), who won nearly 60% of the primary vote. Hochul won a special election in May 2011 to replace Rep. Chris Lee (R) who resigned the seat. McCain (R) carried this district with 54% and Sen. Schumer (D) carried it with 53%. In the redrawn 18th district, Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) will face former Clinton White House aide Sean Maloney (D), who won a five-way primary. This district was won by Obama, Schumer and Cuomo and will be a top target for Democrats.

In a state where the presidential and U.S. Senate (Sen. Gillibrand will cruise to victory) are uncompetitive, look to the U.S. House and state legislative contests for several interesting battles with significant implications.

Colorado
Biggest story in Colorado last night was not the Primary Election, but the devastating fires that forced the evacuation of 32,000 people around Colorado Springs. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) immediately showed strong leadership by being present and supportive at the command center located near the fires. The U.S. Air Force Academy was evacuated and the El Paso County Clerk was evacuated that resulted in the halting of tabulating election results. Questions were starting to surface overnight on the lack of federal/military assistance that could become a political issue for the President in a competitive state.

Three BIPAC staff members were also in the Colorado Springs area, but thankfully all are safe.

In the Fifth Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) held off a challenge from Robert Blaha (R) in a contest where the final numbers will not be known for several days due to the fires.

Not only because of the presidential contest, Colorado is a state to watch in the General Election as three congressional contests could/should be competitive. Rep. Scott Tipton (R-CO3) will face Sal Pace (D), Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO4) will be challenged by Brandon Shaffer (D) and Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO6) faces the toughest contest against Joe Miklosi (D).

Oklahoma
How any incumbent could ignore a primary challenge in this tough climate is mind boggling, but that is exactly what five-term Rep. John Sullivan (R-OK1). Sullivan was recently quoted by the AP as saying, “The only mistake I made was I ignored it for too long.” Tea Party backed candidate Jim Bridenstine didn’t ignore the race and walked away with the surprise of the night by winning with a 54% to 46% tally. The district favors Bridenstine in the fall and the next Oklahoma delegation will likely be 5-0 Republican.

The one current member of the delegation that is not a Republican, Rep. Dan Boren (D-OK2) is not running for re-election. While both the Republican and Democrat primaries will be decided by a runoff, the district is nearly a 60% GOP seat.

Utah
In a long multi-step process to win a contest in Utah, six-term Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) cruised to a GOP Primary victory with 67% of the vote and has put what is likely his toughest tests behind him. Dan Liljenquist (R) was never able to mount a strong challenge for this contest. In a state that surprisingly saw Sen. Bob Bennett (R) defeated in the 2010 GOP convention by now Sen. Mike Lee, Hatch quickly learned from that contest and was able to survive. With the primary election defeat of Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), Hatch is now poised to be the most senior Republican in January.

Three of the four Utah House seats are held by Republicans and will likely stay that way following the General Election. The one seat that is in play is the seat held by Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT4). At 56% Republican, the 4th District is the least Republican district in the state. This seat is a top target by the GOP.

SC runoff
South Carolina gained one seat through reapportionment and the new 7th district is based around Myrtle Beach. Horry County Councilman Tom Rice (R) won 56% of the GOP runoff vote and will be the favorite against Gloria Bromell Tinubu (D) in the General Election. Gov. Nikki Haley (R) threw her support behind Rice in the closing weeks of the campaign. Rice’s opponent, Andre Bauer (R), was one of Haley’s opponents in the 2010 Governor’s race.

Notable items from the elections on June 26:

• It is only fitting to mention the GOP presidential primary in this section. With Utah holding their presidential primary last night, all 50 states have now voted and Mitt Romney can move on to the GOP Convention in Tampa. Hardly news since the math lead to a Romney long before the contest was “called.”
• Celebrate July 4th next week by going to a parade, watch some fireworks and learn more about the candidates running to win your vote and where they stand on issues important to your job and company.

1,359

For those of you who have seen me speak or spent time talking with me, you know that I have a curiosity and love for numbers. To play off of this curiosity, we are introducing a new Election Insights section where I will occasionally throw out a number and then briefly explain why it is important in the current political environment.

The first number to highlight is 1,359 which represents the total number of U.S. Senate, U.S. House and Gubernatorial primary and general election contests in 2012. If you were to add Special Elections (likely to be four) plus Runoff Elections, this number would be higher by about two dozen. Also, let’s not forget about the critical fights for control of 86 of the 99 state legislative chambers this year.

Some of these contests will go uncontested and many more will be uncompetitive from a Democrat versus Republican viewpoint. It is likely that only about 10% of these races will be truly competitive. While I would like this percentage to be significantly higher, we in the business community need to be wise and direct as much support to those pro-job growth, pro-economy, pro-free enterprise candidates (Republican and Democrat) in these few districts to influence elected outcomes. We look forward to providing you content, analysis, and results on all of these 1,359+ races this year!

We all have heard how the Mayan Calendar says the world is going to end on December 21, 2012 (12-21-12) and hopefully we all laugh off that possibility. Only problem is that the date is wrong. The date should be November 7, 2012, which is the day after the 2012 General Election. In the political world, this is day 1 of a world they have yet to consider.

In political/campaign circles, nearly every candidate, political party, political caucus or other political organization operates under a plan that nothing happens beyond Election Day. To them, Election Day is do or die and then when the election is over, they start all over again. There is never a long term political plan to accomplish policy objectives. Once the politicking is done, the policy discussions are supposed to restart and focus on moving the country’s economy forward again. The problem with the Mayan Election Calendar approach is that the long term message is often subject to manipulation and hyper-partisanship. This is not good for the business community and in particular, the economy, and can you think of a time in the last half century where focusing on the economy has been more important than it is today?

Fortunately, many of you in the business community are already looking beyond the election in November and working hard to improve our economy. We are too. For us, not believing in a Mayan Election Calendar for every election means looking out over the horizon into the next several election cycles and identifying trends and shifts that are occurring in campaigns, demographics and issues so that we can help lead the business community to be proactive in defining the issues and candidates to support in future elections. We can and need to be effective today, but maximize the benefit in the next cycle at the same time.

We need to make sure we understand where and how to move voter groups that will be critical to deciding future elections and issue battles. We will always have several states and demographic groups to focus on in order to impact the outcome of elections. But that is for the election cycle of the moment. We also need to focus on groups and states that will not only help the business community today, but also help us in the legislative sessions that will begin in January, the handful of state elections in 2013 and the midterm elections in 2014. We even need to consider the elections a decade down the road.

Here are just two examples of what I am talking about:

• Several states (AZ, CA, CO, FL, NM, TX and VA to name a few) need attention today to either improve, prevent a decline, or hold steady a pro-job growth, pro-free market environment. Without communicating to employees today and over the next several years, the business community will lose ground as a result of demographic changes occurring now.
• Is the fierce discussion that is taking place across the country related to energy issues suddenly going to be resolved on Election Day? No, of course it is not and Democrat or Republican control of the White House or Congress will not suddenly end the debate either. Does it matter to the energy industry (and the country) which candidates win? Absolutely, it does. But, does it matter even more what happens after the election. You bet it does.

More than ever, the business community needs to be engaged in this election, but we also need to make sure we don’t fall victim like many political organizations do by living by the Mayan Election Calendar. Let’s keep our eyes focused on the future to where we can lead on issues impacting business and the economy. And, even though Dick Clark has passed and the Mayans believed it is all coming to an end, I am betting we will still have another election in 2013 and in 2014. Let’s be prepared!

• 1 Senate & 21 House incumbents on the ballot last night, all 22 win.
• Game on as big U.S. Senate races in ND, NV & VA are now set.
• Potential U.S. Senate King-maker is so popular, he’s not even on the primary ballot.
• AZ-8 Special Election to replace Rep. Gabrielle Giffords goes as expected.
• Nevada is as exciting as any state this fall.

No matter the size, demographic changes, partisan tilt or which end of the unemployment rankings a state finds itself, each and every state is critical to the outcome of moving this country forward economically. In short, the only sensible political strategy to move a pro-job growth, pro-economic development agenda forward is to Leave No State Behind. Every state offers up at least one important contest this year and the mix of states holding either a primary, special election or runoff last night demonstrates this reality.

State in the spotlight – Nevada
Nevada is one of the most interesting states to follow this election cycle. The state gains a seat due to reapportionment, is competitive at the presidential level, has a competitive U.S. Senate race to become the Junior Senator to Harry Reid (D), Democrats control the state senate by just one seat (11 to 10), one of the three Hispanics in the country elected statewide in 2010 calls Nevada home (Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval), and at 11.7%, Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the U.S. Blue collar construction industry workers and Hispanics will be key voting groups to track as many have left the state in the economic downturn.

The U.S. Senate contest will be one of the most competitive this fall where incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R) will face Rep. Shelley Berkley (D). Both received over 80% of the vote in their primaries where they each faced four opponents. Heller was appointed to the seat by Gov. Sandoval following the resignation of Sen. John Ensign making this the first Senate contest for Heller, but not his first run statewide (Heller won three terms as Secretary of State).

In a redrawn NV-1 that is an open seat due to Berkley running for the Senate, Dina Titus (D) was the lone Democrat candidate and the likely winner in a district that President Obama won with 64.5% in 2008. Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV2) finds himself in an evenly split district (neither Obama nor McCain hit 50% in 2008) and will face Samuel Koepnick (D) in the General Election.

In one of the most interesting races of the night, Danny Tarkanian (R) won the GOP nomination over eight other candidates with 32% and will face state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D). Tarkanian has lost an election in three of the last four election cycles and, along with other members of his well-known family, have recently been ordered by a federal judge to pay $17 million to a developer where they personally guaranteed a bank loan. This is also in a district that Obama carried by 15 points over McCain in 2008, so Tarkanian has an uphill fight on his hands.

Arizona
The AZ-8 Special Election to replace Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) garnered additional attention in the last few weeks as it appeared the race had tightened between the two main candidates. In the end, with a highly visible endorsement from Rep. Giffords, Ron Barber (D) was able to defeat Jesse Kelly (R) by a 53% to 45% margin. In a competitive contest in 2010, Giffords defeated Kelly by just 4,156 votes and Kelly kept the popular Giffords under 50% of the vote.

Due to redistricting, Barber will run for re-election in a re-numbered District 2 in the General Election. While the district has been slightly improved for a Democrat candidate, it is still a competitive seat and many Republicans were hoping for a Kelly defeat so the GOP could field a stronger candidate in the fall

Arkansas
Two Congressional runoff elections to determine the Democrat nominee were held, however both seats will likely result in Republican victories in November. In AR-1, prosecuting attorney Scott Ellington (D) will face Rep. Rick Crawford (R), while state Sen. Gene Jeffress (D) won his runoff election and will face GOP nominee Tom Cotton in AR-4. Rep. Mike Ross (D-AR4) is not running for reelection. With a win by Cotton, all four members of the Arkansas delegation will Republican.

Maine
If the GOP falls short in their attempt to capture the majority in the U.S. Senate, many will reflect back on the day that popular moderate Senator Olympia Snowe (R) announced her retirement as the day the GOP hopes began to unravel. Although the Republicans nominated their candidate (Secretary of State Charles Summers) and Democrats nominated their candidate (state Sen. Cynthia Dill), the likely winner wasn’t even on the ballot yesterday. The popular former Governor Angus King, an Independent, is expected to take the seat in November and with partisan control up in the air, King’s role in the next U.S. Senate could be one that serves as the deciding vote on many issues.

Both incumbent Democrat House members are clear favorites to win their fall contests.

North Dakota
Duane Sand (R) raised over $900,000 in the open U.S. Senate contest, but was defeated by Rep. Rick Berg (R) by nearly a two-to-one margin (66% to 34%). Berg will face a tough fall contest against the former Attorney General and breast cancer survivor Heidi Heitkamp (D). In a state with the lowest unemployment rate in the country (3.0%), their views on the rapidly growing energy industry will be key. This contest will play a pivotal role in determining partisan control of the next U.S. Senate.

In the North Dakota At-Large contest, the Republican Party backed candidate was defeated by the candidate who went completely outside the normal party convention process and won the GOP nomination. Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer (R) defeated fellow Public Service Commissioner and Republican Party endorsed candidate Brian Kalk (R) 55% to 45%. Cramer will face former state Rep. Pam Gulleson (D) in November.

South Carolina
South Carolina gained one seat through reapportionment and the new 7th district is based around Myrtle Beach. Many in the Democrat Party quickly switched their support away from state Rep. Ted Vick following some serious issues (read the article because I can’t make this kind of stuff up). Even though Vick withdraw from the race, his name was still on the ballot. Once the Vick votes were discounted, former Georgia state Rep. Gloria Bromell Tinubu (D) carried just enough votes to avoid a runoff by hitting 52%. She will face the winner of the GOP runoff.

Virginia
Last night was the calm before the storm. Virginia is at the crossroads in determining who will win the race for the White House and for control of the U.S. Senate. With all of the U.S. House races and the U.S. Senate contest essentially set, the only guessing game was what percentage of the four-way GOP primary vote would George Allen (R) receive. With a considerable advantage in name identification, money and grassroots support the outcome was never in doubt. Regardless of the result (Allen received 65% of the vote to 23% for Tea Party candidate Jamie Radtke), Republicans were going to claim victory and that the GOP is unified behind Allen and primed to defeat Tim Kaine (D) in the fall. Democrats were going to talk up the credentials of Kaine and how fractured the GOP is. Ignore them both.

This will likely be the most consistently competitive U.S. Senate race this cycle. Neither candidate is likely to open up a lead of more than a couple points. Two factors to pay attention to: 1) will voters be voting for Tim Kaine, the popular former governor that matched Virginians well on issues or will voters vote against the Tim Kaine that served as the Democrat National Committee Chairman that supported President Obama on many issues that Virginians disagree with? 2) Over 10% of the Virginia economy comes from defense related production. Which candidates (U.S. Senate and President) will military and voters employed by defense related firms support?

All four House incumbents facing a primary candidate received at least two-thirds of the vote. All 11 House incumbents are running for re-election and all will be clear favorites in the General Election.

Notable items from the elections on June 12:

• With the AZ-8 Special Election concluded, the U.S. House now stands at 242 GOP, 191 DEM with 2 vacancies. For Democrats to reclaim the majority, they would need to hold the two vacant seats plus win 25 seats from the GOP in November.
• 9 of 10 U.S. Senate incumbents have won their primary in 2012.
• 211 of 214 (98.6%) U.S. House incumbents have advanced to the General Election (not counting the incumbent vs. incumbent contests).

• Incumbent Wisconsin Governor (R) Scott Walker wins Recall Election
• Democrats claim victory, break tie to gain control of Wisconsin State Senate
• Former President Clinton’s candidate (Rep. Pascrell) beats President Obama’s candidate (Rep. Rothman) in New Jersey
• Son wins in New Jersey, poised to take father’s seat (Donald Payne, Jr.)
• “Top Two” system in California gets first test with two incumbent vs. incumbent fights, and I do mean fights
• U.S. Senate contests in Montana and New Mexico are now set
• All 64 House incumbents on the ballot advance to General Election

Here are the Wisconsin Governor Recall Election results with 99% reporting:

Wisconsin
Just one hour after the polls closed, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (R) was declared the victor is an expensive, bitter recall effort where a reported $80 million was spent. Six months ago, 88% of Wisconsin voters stated they already had made up their minds on which candidate they were going to vote for. Translated, that means there was an average of about $35 spent per undecided voter. The night was a clean sweep for Republicans. The GOP also won the recall effort in the Lt. Governor’s race avoiding an awkward split party Executive Branch. In the four Recall Elections for State Senate (including one vacant seat) Democrats were able to win one seat. As a result, the Wisconsin State Senate moves from a 16-16 tie to a 17-16 Democrat majority and accomplishing a major goal for Democrats. However, the victory is symbolic only since the state legislature is adjourned until after the November election and the redistricting changes will favor Republican regaining control. This gives the GOP control of 30 state senate chambers to 19 for the Democrats with 1 tied (Alaska).

The hype leading up the Wisconsin Recall Election and the hyperbole following the decision would lead one to believe that the presidential contest would be settled based on the outcome of the Walker vs. Tom Barrett (D) contest and that the next 150+ days would be meaningless. While the Wisconsin race was interesting and an important contest, it in no way means that Wisconsin is automatically a tossup state between President Obama (D) and Mitt Romney (R) in the fall. This Recall Election was about state issues, not national issues. Democrats campaigned to “Recall Walker” not to “Elect Barrett.” If this had been a “Yes” or “No” campaign to recall Walker (as it would be in several other states), the outcome might have been different.

California
The primary process changed in California from the traditional system used in 47 states to a “Top Two” open primary system where there is just one ballot listing all the candidates and the two candidates, regardless of party, with the most votes advance to the General Election. In addition to the state changing its redistricting process being conducted by a redistricting commission and no the state legislature, California will finally have some turnover in its congressional delegation. With 9 open seats, a minimum of 9 freshman (and more likely 11-12) will join the next Congress in January. Even with this turnover, it appears all 46 incumbents on the ballot advanced to the General Election (Rep. Gary Miller (R) was in a close contest in CA-31).

Two contests will feature incumbent vs. incumbent battles in the General Election. In CA-30, incumbent Reps. Howard Berman (D) and Brad Sherman (D) will face each other after Sherman captured the most primary votes by a 40% to 33% margin. In CA-44, incumbent Reps. Janice Hahn (D) and Laura Richardson (D) go to round 2 after Hahn easily outpaced Richardson by a 60% to 40% difference.

In CA-15, challenger candidate Eric Swallwell (D) ran a strong primary and is poised for a competitive General Election contest against vulnerable 20 term incumbent Rep. Pete Stark (D). Stark is one of at least four Democrat incumbents who will face another Democrat candidate in the fall (in addition to the two incumbent vs. incumbent situations).

New Jersey
Longtime state legislator Joe Kyrillos (R), who was endorsed by popular Gov. Chris Christie (R), easily won his primary and will challenge incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D), who is seeking a second term. Although Menendez has a huge money advantage, his polling numbers are not as strong as they should be for an incumbent at this stage of the election in a Democrat state. Menendez is favored in the fall, but put this race on your “super sleeper” list of races to watch.

Due to reapportionment, New Jersey lost one congressional seat and this resulted in a rather nasty incumbent vs. incumbent contest between two former close colleagues. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D) defeated Rep. Steve Rothman (D) by a lopsided 61% to 39%. Pascrell was endorsed by former President Clinton while Rothman showed up walking with President Obama at the White House last week. The primary may have pitted the two presidents against each other on one day, but showing that this meant zip, the two were raising money together a few days later.

Rep. Donald Payne, Sr. (D) passed away in March. The Special Election to fill out the remainder of his term will be held in conjunction with the General Election to serve in the next Congress. His successor will likely be his son, Donald Payne, Jr. (D), who won a six way primary with 60% of the vote.

New Mexico
In an open seat contest for U.S. Senate, Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) won a competitive primary over state auditor Hector Balderas (D) by a 59% to 41% margin. Heinrich received a significant number of teacher and labor union endorsements. Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) won the GOP nomination with 70% over Tea Party candidate Greg Sowards (R). At this early stage, Wilson has nearly doubled Heinrich in fundraising. With New Mexico being one of 15 states in play for the presidential contest, look for this race to be a competitive battle.

Iowa
In one of the bigger “oops” moments of the cycle, IA-2 Republican candidate Dan Dolan had an unforgettable scheduling snafu when he delivered his stump speech to a local Democrat party convention. He had the right venue, the right day, but the wrong time. Oops! Dolan lost his primary to John Deere attorney John Archer (R), who will now face incumbent Rep. Dave Loebsack (D).

One of the five incumbent vs. incumbent battles in the General Election will take place in IA-3, where Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) and Rep. Tom Latham (R) will face off in what will be one of the more high profile races in the country in November. IA-4 will feature a competitive battle between incumbent Rep. Steve King (R) and Christie Vilsack (D).

Notable items from the June 5 Primary Elections:

• 8 of 9 U.S. Senate incumbents have won their primary in 2012.
• 192 of 195 (98.5%) U.S. House incumbents have advanced to the General Election (not counting the incumbent vs. incumbent contests).
• SD – Rep. Kristi Noem (R at large) ran unopposed and will face Matt Varilek (D) in the General Election.
• MT – Sen. Jon Tester (D) ran unopposed in the Democrat primary. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) won the Republican primary with 76%. This will be one of the most watched U.S. Senate contest and will be high on the GOP target list.
• CA – At least 3 non-major party candidates made it through the top two primary and will face incumbents: CA-13 (D-Lee), CA-23 (R-McCarthy) and CA-33 (D-Waxman).
• California has 21,993 precincts. South Dakota has 710 precincts.