UT-4: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is retiring, giving the Republicans a top pick up opportunity.   Mitt Romney won the 4th district by over 30 points, and without Matheson on the ticket, Republicans have the advantage.

The Utah primary was yesterday, however the nominees for the 4th district were decided in a May convention. 

Mia Love, former Saratoga Springs Mayor and 2012 GOP candidate is the Republican nominee.  Attorney Doug Owens is the Democratic nominee.  This race is Love's to lose.

FL-19: Curt Clawson is the next Congressman from Florida's 19th district.  He easily beat Democratic April Freeman in the special general election to replace former Rep. Trey Radel (R).  Clawson, a businessman, won the GOP nomination in a tough primary by running as an outsider and tea party candidate. 

Senate
There are two Senate races in Oklahoma this year.  Sen. James Inhofe (R) is running for re-election and faces minimal opposition.  Sen. Tom Coburn has announced his retirement, and there is a special election for the remaining two years of his term. This is a safe Republican seat and the competitive race was in the primary. 

The two frontrunners were Rep. James Lankford and former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon. 

BIPAC and much of the Oklahoma business community coalesced behind Lankford with Shannon gaining support from national Tea Party groups, Sen. Ted Cruz, and others - though local tea parties had supported Lankford in the past and were split in the primary. 

In what had been forecast as a close race with a likely runoff if neither candidate cleared 50% in the six candidate field, Lankford engineered a 23 point victory, avoiding a runoff with over 57% of the vote to 34% for Shannon.

House

OK-5: With Rep. James Lankford (R) seeking the open Senate seat, the 5th district had a crowded primary, with six Republicans running.  As with the Senate race, no candidate received over 50% of the vote, and this race will go into a runoff on August 26. 

The top two vote getters were Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner Patrice Douglas with 25% and former state Sen. Steve Russell with 27%. 

This is a safe Republican district and whoever wins the runoff is likely to win the seat.

NY-1:  Rep. Tim Bishop (D) will have a tough general election on his hands.  State Sen. and BIPAC endorsed candidate Lee Zeldin won the GOP nomination with 62% of the vote.  Bishop won in 2012 by just four points and this is a top Republican pick up target.  In a better Republican year and with Bishop now under FBI investigation for influence peddling, Zeldin has proven himself an ally of the business community and represents one of the best GOP pickup opportunities in the country.  

NY-4: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) is retiring, leaving an open seat for 2014.  Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice quickly became the frontrunner in the Democratic primary and general election though the primary proved much closer than anticipated.  She became the official nominee yesterday winning 53% of the primary vote.  On the Republican side, attorney and former Nassau County legislator Bruce Blakeman won the nomination.  Rice remains the front runner for the general election.
 
NY-11: Rep. Michael Grimm (R) and NYC Councilman Domenic Recchia (D) will face off in what is likely to be a very competitive election in November.  Grimm was recently indicted on 20 counts of fraud, but maintains his innocence and is still running for re-election.  Recchia, a NYC councilman, is a credible challenger and right now, Grimm is the underdog.

NY-13: Rep. Charles Rangel was one of the most vulnerable Democrats in a primary this election cycle, but was able to hold off a challenge from state Sen. Adriano Espaillat.  Rangel did not have an easy primary, due to his past censure by the House for failing to pay taxes and facing a Hispanic challenger in an increasingly Hispanic district.  Rangel is safe in the general election.  

NY-18: The 18th district will see a rematch with former Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) challenging Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D), who ousted the freshman in 2012.  This district has switched parties in three of the past four elections and is known for its moderate representatives.

NY-19: Rep. Chris Gibson (R) will be facing venture capitalist Sean Eldridge (D) in November.  Gibson sits in a Democratic leaning district, making it a top target for Democrats in 2014.  Eldridge, 27, is married to the co-founder of Facebook, and will be able to self-fund the campaign and has already started spending massive amounts, making this an interesting race to watch.  

NY-21: Former Bush administration aide Elise Stefanik (R) has won the Republican nomination and will face Aaron Woolf (D), a documentary filmmaker in November.  Stefanik, 29, announced her candidacy before Rep. Bill Owens (D) announced his retirement.  After Owens' announcement, businessman Matt Doheny, who has run previously for the seat, entered the GOP primary as well.  Stefanik had already rallied much of Republican establishment around her candidacy and was supported by Mitt Romney, Rep. Paul Ryan and American Crossroads as the candidate who would be better in the general election.  This is a prime pick up opportunity for the Republicans.  

NY-22: Rep. Richard Hanna (R) survived a primary challenge from state Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney 53-47.  Tenney was running to Hanna's right and was not perceived as a large threat.  However, after Cantor's surprising loss last week, this race, with similar dynamics, started gaining national attention.  There is no Democrat on the ballot in the general.

Senate

Sen. Mark Udall (D) has a tough race on his hands in 2014.  Rep. Cory Gardner (R) entered the race late and polls show this race to be a tossup.  Both Udall and Gardner had wrapped up their nominations but yesterday's primary vote confirmed the nominees.  BIPAC has endorsed Rep. Gardner in his Senatorial bid.

House

CO-4:  With Rep. Cory Gardner (R) running for Senate, the 4th district is an open seat.  This is a solidly Republican seat, so the determinative race was the GOP primary.  Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, the frontrunner, won with 44% of the vote.  Buck was originally running for Senate, but dropped down to the 4th district once Gardner announced.

CO-5: Doug Lamborn, challenged by frequent foe and rival Bentley Rayburn, faced a much closer than expected vote count and escaped with a narrow 53-47 victory in the GOP primary.

CO-6: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) is being challenged by former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D).  Neither had a primary challenge and both have been gearing up for the general election on November 4th.   Coffman, a BIPAC endorsed candidate, is one of the most vulnerable House Republicans this cycle, and this is expected to be one of the most expensive House races in 2014.

Sen. Thad Cochran (R) narrowly defeated tea-party challenger, state Sen. Chris McDaniel. 

The race has been at the center of the Republican establishment vs. Tea Party fight, costing more than $17 million dollars. The ultimate nominee faces former Democratic Congressman Travis Childers in the general election. 

Many BIPAC members with Mississippi operations undertook a strong GOTV effort amongst their employees, contributing to the 50,000 vote increase from the original primary, more than accounting for Cochran's vote victory margin.    

IA-3:  No candidate in the 3rd district received over 35% on the June 3 primary, sending this race to a convention that took place this past Saturday. David Young, who came in fifth place in the primary, has won the nomination.  Young, Sen. Chuck Grassley's former Chief of Staff, first entered the Senate race for Tom Harkin's (D) open seat, then changed and ran for the 3rd district, which is open due to Tom Latham's (R) retirement.  Young faces Democrat state Sen. Staci Appel in the general.  With Republicans nominating a more mainstream, less antagonizing candidate than many expected to come out of a convention, this seat is expected to be very competitive.

BIPAC attends RealClearPolitics event Job Growth and Tax Reform with Congressmen Dave Camp (R-MI) and Panelists William Gale, Maya MacGuineas, Grover Norquist, and Alan Viard.  It was a great discussion on current and other approaches to tax reform that could strengthen the economy and bring jobs back to the U.S.

The program was hosted in Washington, DC, on June 19, 2014.

Learn more at http://bit.ly/1ssZqLO.

House GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was elected the new Majority Leader today by secret ballot.

Learn more in the CNN story, "House Republicans Elect McCarthy to take Cantor's Job."

It is understood the GOP will maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which does not speak to "who" will control the House GOP. The exodus of so many senior Democrats is telling. Regarding governors, although the GOP will lose ground, the big gains Democrats hoped to achieve in state houses isn't going to materialize. All eyes are then focused on whether the GOP will regain the U.S. Senate.
 
Washington wisdom suggests outright control of the Senate is the GOP's to lose. The environment seems consistent with that. The public leans towards GOP control of Congress. The President's approval is under water by double digits in key states and some core issues are going south for their party. Historically, the party of the White House doesn't do well in the off year election during a President's second term and given their base historically doesn't show up well in off year elections anyway, therefore Democrats face a potentially toxic political environment in November.
 
The math and the cadre of quality GOP candidates also seems to suggest a GOP advantage. The GOP needs six seats to regain the majority outright. Three of those seem certain, assuming the GOP candidates in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia keep their eye on the ball. That leaves a target rich environment of another eleven or so potentially competitive Senate races from which the GOP needs to win three, assuming they hold Georgia and Kentucky. In six of those eleven states, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina, the GOP candidate leads in three and the other three are legitimate jump balls. Let's not slice this to fine at this point. They are all close. There are five other races in Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia that lean Democratic but with numbers to iffy to provide much comfort. A little push from a legitimate wave and the close seats and anyone of these leaners could move in the GOP direction.

Still, the GOP has recently squandered similar opportunities. This time, however, it may be less about bad candidates than outdated campaigns. The recent upset of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia teaches us three obvious lessons; keeping your eye on the ball back home matters, money alone is no cure for taking your eye off the ball and the electorate everywhere is pretty angry at Washington arrogance. Maybe not so obvious, however, was the oft stated disdain for Leader Cantor's cozy relationship with "corporate influence."   While anti-big business, "crony capitalism" has been part of the Tea Party line for some time, it was full-throated the day after this unknown and underfunded candidate upset the Majority Leader even after being outspent 5 to 1.
 
As I was preparing my thoughts for this newsletter, Red State published an article entitled "Big Business is afraid of conservatives - and they should be." Although I don't buy the full narrative, it does speak to a growing belief among many that "corporate" America is as much a part of the problem as "big government" and hints that big, overt corporate support of candidates may not always be as helpful as it once was.
 
This carries a significant warning, less related to the rhetoric of the extreme right than it to the tactics used to defend against their insurgency. Congressman Ralph Hall (R-TX) had the support of the business "establishment" and lost in a run off.  Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) had the support of the establishment too and came in a close second in his primary and is forced to a runoff. Conversely, Tea Party targets Congressman Mike Simpson (R-ID) and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) made the ground game and personal voter contact mainstays of their campaigns and won handily. While it is obvious there was a significant difference in the capability of these candidates, it does suggest there is no substitute for real grassroots in this environment, even by, or especially by, business. Maybe we should keep our eye on the same ball.
 
Brad Dayspring, a former Cantor aide and NRSC Communications Director said last week, "one of the extremely valuable, must follow lessons is you have to adapt and run a modern campaign. Doing things the same old way in the current environment and with the current electorate isn't going to cut it anymore." Good advice for the GOP and for the business community.