The results are in for Alabama’s primary for the 1st Congressional District special election. Jo Bonner (R) resigned in August to take a position as Vice Chancellor of the University of Alabama System, setting off a special election for his seat. The Republican side of this race was packed, with five top tier contenders and a few other candidates, running for the GOP nomination. With such a packed field, no candidate received at least 50% of the vote, which is required to win the primary outright. As such, a runoff will be held on November 5th. The two candidates competing for the GOP nomination are former State Sen. Bardley Byrne and real estate developer Dean Young. Real estate agent Burton Leflore has won the Democratic primary. In such a conservative district, the GOP nominee that wins the runoff is likely to become the next Congressman from Alabama’s 1st. The general election is on December 17th.

Today we continue our four part series in which BIPAC will analyze the upcoming 2014 House Crossover districts. House Crossover districts are the congressional districts where the U.S. Representative and the presidential candidate voted for by that district are of opposite parties. There are currently 26 House Crossover districts or 26 House members whose district voted for the presidential candidate of the opposite party. There are 15 incumbent Republicans serving in districts President Obama won and nine incumbent Democrats serving in districts Mitt Romney won. This series will analyze the incumbents, the districts and potential challengers as the political landscape for 2014 continues to evolve and take shape.

To see the full list of House Crossover districts visit the Political Analysis page of the BIPAC portal here.

David Valadao (R, CA 21)
Valadao is a House freshman, elected in 2012, who beat his opponent by double digits. He ran in an open seat created when former 21st District Congressman Jim Coston (D) ran in the newly created 16th District. The 21st District is known for its farming and agriculture, especially dairy, and Valadao has a solid background in dairy farming, as a managing partner of Valadao Dairy, which he started with his brothers. Valadao ran ahead of Obama in this district by four points in 2012, and Democrats blame their loss on a weak 2012 candidate who faced fundraising and debt issues. So far no credible opponents for 2014 have surfaced.

Tom Latham (R, IA 3)
Latham was first elected to Congress in 1995, representing the 5th Congressional District. Redistricting put in him the more competitive 4th District in 2012. Instead, he decided to run in the 3rd District, beating Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. Latham sits on the House Appropriations Committee, which aided him in 2012; he is the only Iowan on the committee. Latham’s 2014 opponents have already popped up, including former State Senator and businesswoman Staci Appel (D) and former factory worker Gabriel De La Cerda (D). This is a district to watch because of the importance of Iowa to presidential elections, as the Iowa caucuses provide the first indicators of which candidate might win the nomination of their party.

Jon Runyan (R, NJ 3)
Runyan, first elected in 2011, is a former football player for the Philadelphia Eagles. He ran ahead of Obama by four points in 2012 in a district that has both blue collar union families and middle/upper class suburban families. The district also has a large military and veteran presence, which Runyan has appealed to in the past years, voting against defense budget cuts and serving on the House Committee on Veterans Affairs. There are no declared opponents for 2014 yet.

Peter King (R, NY 2)
King has been in Congress since 1993 and is known for his moderate to conservative views and his strong support for the U.S. military. The 2nd District has not voted in favor of a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1992, with landslide Democratic wins in ’96, ’00, and ’08. This is a northeast district near the largest city in the country, so it should not be surprising that it supports Democratic presidential candidates, though King ran ahead of Obama by more than ten points. Although he has announced his intention to run for president in 2016, he is still gearing up for reelection in 2014. No Democratic candidates have emerged thus far.

John Barrow (D, GA 12)
Barrow won this district in 2012, which he first won in 2004, by a margin of 7.4% while Mitt Romney won this district by 11.8%. Barrow is a member of the dwindling group of Blue Dogs left in the House. The Blue Dogs are Democrats in the House known for their more conservative stances on issues like taxes and fiscal policy. Barrow’s seat has already been targeted by the NRCC. Georgia’s 12th District has voted for the Republican nominee for President not only in 2012, but for the past three presidential elections. After redistricting, the 12th District became even more Republican and Barrow was expected to face an uphill battle. However, issues with the Republican candidate’s campaign worked in Barrow’s favor, and he was able to pull through a win. Barrow already has competition in 2014, including businessman Rick Allen (R) and House Republican aide John Stone (R). This race will come down to the quality of the candidates and turnout.

Pete Gallego (D, TX 23)
The 23rd Congressional District is a true swing district, evenly split among Democrats and Republicans. In 2012, Gallego, a former Texas state representative, beat incumbent Rep. Francisoco Canseco (R) by 4.7%. A moderate Democrat, he was able to identify with the issues of the district and used his reputation for working effectively in a majority Republican legislature. The 23rd District has the largest border with Mexico of any U.S. district and has a massive oil industry, putting security, immigration and energy issues on the forefront of any campaign here. Gallego already has challengers in 2014, including businessman and former CIA operative Will Hurd (R) and physician Robert Lowry (R).

Click here for a pdf version

Source: National Journal

Yesterday, Colorado held its first ever recall elections of two state lawmakers, Sen. President John Morse (D) and Sen. Angela Giron (D). Both were recalled and replaced with republicans. Senator Elect Bernie Herpin (R), replaces John Morse and George Rivera (R), replaces Angela Giron. The Senate remains in Democratic control, but its lead has narrowed from 20-15 to 18-17. The State Senate will now also have to elect a new Senate President.

The results of yesterday’s elections could be telling of what to expect in 2014. While Morse’s district was more evenly split with party registration, Giron sat in a district with a much larger Democratic voter registration and was expected to pull through. Turnout for the election was low, but the election did bring in significant campaign funds, about $3.5 million dollars, a lot of it coming from out of state, showing the national significance and interest of the recalls.

Morse and Giron faced the recalls due to the recent gun control bills passed in the 2013 legislative session by the Democratically-controlled CO state legislature. They were the first such bills passed in over ten years, and it was a hot topic issue in a state that is well known for the Columbine High School and Aurora shootings, but is also known for its bipartisan passion of hunting and sport shooting.

Stakes in the States Series

There are 36 states with governor’s races in 2014. The current party breakdown for governorships is 30 Republican and 20 Democratic. There are currently six open seats in AR, AZ, NE, MD, MA and TX meaning there are 30 governors running for re-election. Despite Republicans having a ten seat advantage, several current Republican governors won election in the Tea Party wave of 2010 and nine Republican governors are up in states that Obama won in 2012. As such, Republican governors are now running for re-election in states that are far more moderate than they’ve governed, leaving them more vulnerable than their Democratic counterparts. Below is a list of the top four most vulnerable Republicans and top four most vulnerable Democrats running for re-election in 2014. We’ve provided an overview as to why they are at risk and listed the most recent race ratings from several top political analysts as well as those from BIPAC.

Top Four Vulnerable Republicans

Gov. Rick Snyder (MI)
BIPAC: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Leans Republican
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -8

Snyder’s approval ratings dropped drastically after signing Michigan’s “right-to-work” law last December. While it has improved in the past few months, it has not fully recovered. His recent decisions regarding Detroit’s bankruptcy have helped him with approval ratings, but his support for expanding Medicaid is now costing him with Republicans. This is a state that Obama won in 2008 and 2012.

Gov. Paul LePage (ME) BIPAC: Toss Up/Lean D Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Dem/Indy; changed from Toss Up on 8/8/13 538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -12   LePage has faced attacks from both sides of the aisle during his time in office, most recently with his own party over Maine’s budget, supporting a government shutdown over the legislature’s bipartisan agreement. The potential three-way race shaping up could help him again if he runs in 2014, just as it did in 2010.

Gov. Rick Scott (FL)
BIPAC: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -20

Rick Scott, one of the more vulnerable governors in the country, could see a primary challenge from his own party. His approval ratings have been improving a bit recently, with Florida’s economy regaining some strength and his reversal to support Medicaid expansion in Florida (though he was unable to win legislative support for it).

Gov. Tom Corbett (PA)
BIPAC: Toss Up/Lean D
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Toss Up
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -14

Corbett has a lot working against him for 2014. He has yet to get his “big three” campaign promises passed, including transportation funding, liquor privatization and public employee pension reform. Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is also often above that of the national average, and Corbett has been highly criticized for his handling of the Penn State scandal when he was attorney general.

Top Four Vulnerable Democrats

Gov. Dan Malloy (CT)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Leans Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval +6

Malloy faced a large drop in approval ratings when he signed the largest tax hike in Connecticut’s history, during his first year as governor. Connecticut has also been ranked the worst state for economic growth the past two years. Malloy has gained some popularity of late, due to his support of gun control legislation in the state. This may not however, be enough to offset the lack of support for his economic policies.

Gov. Lincoln Chafee (RI)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Likely Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -40

Chafee’s biggest problem for re-election is Rhode Island’s economy. For July 2013, it was ranked third in the nation, with an unemployment rate of 8.9 and was rated the second worst state for business by CNBC in 2013. Chafee has recently switched parties, from Independent to Democrat, which could help his chances at winning re-election.

Gov. Pat Quinn (IL) 
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Likely Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -24

Quinn’s approval ratings are so low it is very possible he will face a primary challenger, which is where he will be most vulnerable in the deep blue state. Like several of the governors on this list, Quinn’s unpopularity has a lot to do with the economy. Illinois has faced major budget problems under Quinn, including a $100 billion pension crisis; the worst faced by any US state. Quinn has halted payments for state lawmakers until they pass pension reform and is now being sued by members of his own party for the pay freeze.

Gov. Hickenlooper (CO)
BIPAC: Likely D
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Solid D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Safe Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval +33

Hickenlooper could be potentially vulnerable for two main noneconomic reasons- his recent stances on the death penalty and gun control legislation. A Quinnipiac survey found that his handling on both issues, granting temporary reprieve to a man on death row, and supporting gun control legislation, went against public opinion in Colorado. Whether or not these will be enough to make Hickenlooper a one term governor has yet to be seen.