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Source: National Journal

Today we continue our 4 part series in which BIPAC will analyze the upcoming 2014 House crossover districts. House crossover districts are the congressional districts where the U.S. Representative and the presidential candidate voted for by that district are of opposite parties. There are currently 26 House crossover districts or 26 House members whose district voted for the presidential candidate of the opposite party. There are 15 incumbent Republicans serving in districts President Obama won and 9 incumbent Democrats serving in districts Mitt Romney won. This series will analyze the incumbents, the districts and potential challengers as the political landscape for 2014 continues to evolve and take shape.

To see the full list of House crossover districts visit the BIPAC portal here.

Jeff Denham (R, CA-10)
Rep. Denham is currently serving in his second term and besides his agriculture and military background, is known around town for a very specific issue – making sure federal office space is being used efficiently. Denham ran in the newly created 10th district in 2012, which leaned more Democratic than Denham’s old district, giving Democrats hope at switching the seat. All together, about $12 million dollars was spent on the race, showing how significant it was to both parties. Expect the same in 2014, especially since recent polls show that Denham may be facing backlash for the government shutdown. Right now, Denham’s most formidable opponent appears to be beekeeper and farmer Michael Eggman (D). Eggman has been part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) effort, Jumpstart, which supports promising candidates for 2014.

Bill Young (R, FL-13)
Rep. Young passed away on October 18, 2013, setting up a special election for the remainder of his term. The moderate Republican with a seat on the Appropriations Committee would have been a tough competitor in 2014, but a special election gives Democrats a much better chance at the seat that went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012. Several potential candidates from both parties are now being mentioned for the seat. Expect this to be a major focus for both parties.

John Kline (R, MN-2)
2012 was one of Rep. Kline’s most competitive elections. He was running in a more competitive district after redistricting and faced a credible challenger, Mike Obermueller (Democratic-Farmer-Labor). However, Kline was able to draw on his reputation for working in a bipartisan manner and experience as Chairman of the House Education and Workforce Committee to beat Obermueller by over 8 pts. Kline already has challengers for 2014, including Obermueller, who is running again. Kline will be hard to beat, especially with his fundraising numbers; he already has over a million in the bank.

Scott Rigell (R, VA-2)
Currently in his second term, Rep. Rigell is known in Virginia for his pragmatic positions. The 2nd district leans more Republican after redistricting and has a large military presence. Because of this, Rigell has made sure to cater his positions, such as speaking out on sequestration. Due to his more centrist approach, Rigell will be seeing challengers from both sides in 2014. He already has a primary challenger, Kevin Meynardie (R) and on the Democratic side, retired naval officer and former Pentagon official Suzanne Patrick (D) has announced.

Ron Barber (D, AZ-2)
Rep. Barber was first elected to congress in the special election to succeed his boss, former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D). In 2012, Barber won a full term to the 2nd district, beating Retired U.S. Air Force combat pilot Martha McSally (R) by less than one point. The 2nd district was drawn more Democratic after redistricting and Barber asserted himself as an independent voice in the House, voting with Republicans on issues important to the 2nd district, such as border control. McSally has already announced she will be running again in 2014, setting up what could be another competitive race.

Nick Rahall (D, WV-3)
Rep. Rahall has served in the U.S. House since 1977. While Rahall has easily won most of his elections, his margins of victory have gotten smaller as West Virginia becomes more conservative. In 2012, the moderate Democrat had to run against an unpopular President Obama in the state, but was able to prevail with strong fundraising numbers and support of the coal industry. Rahall already has a challenger for 2013, state Sen. Evan Jenkins (R). Jenkins was a Democrat, but switched parties to run against Rahall.

The Louisiana special election was held yesterday and no candidate in the crowded field won the 50 percent required to avoid a runoff election. As such, State Sen. Neil Riser (R) and businessman Vance McAllister (R) will face off in the November 16th runoff. Riser is the GOP establishment candidate and was the top fundraiser heading into the election. McAllister (R) is running as an outsider candidate. The winner of the election will replace Rodney Alexander (R), who resigned from Congress in September to become the new head of the state's Department of Veterans Affairs.

The primary results are in for the 5th district special election.   Former Congressman Ed Markey (D) was elected to the Senate in June to fill the remainder of John Kerry’s (D) term after he resigned to be Secretary of State, setting off a special election for Markey’s House seat.  On the Democratic side, the race was tight, but State Sen. Katherine Clark (D), who was leading the polls at the end of the race, won the nomination.  Attorney Frank Addivinola (R) is the Republican nominee.  Turnout for the election was low, as expected.  Massachusetts has had its share of elections this year, with a Senate special election earlier in 2013 and several local town elections.  The 5th district is solidly blue and the competitive race was the Democratic primary.  Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Clark is expected to easily win the general election on December 10th.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) will be the next senator from New Jersey. Booker easily cruised to victory on Wednesday, beating opponent Steve Lonegan (R). Booker had been consistently ahead in the polls leading up to the election. Booker will replace Sen. Jeffrey Chiesa (R), who was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Christie (R) after Sen. Launtenberg (D) passed away in June. This changes the Senate breakdown to 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans. Booker is up for re-election in November 2014.

The primary results are in for the 5th district special election. Former Congressman Ed Markey (D) was elected to the Senate in June to fill the remainder of John Kerry’s (D) term after he resigned to be Secretary of State, setting off a special election for Markey’s House seat. On the Democratic side, the race was tight, but State Sen. Katherine Clark (D), who was leading the polls at the end of the race, won the nomination. Attorney Frank Addivinola (R) is the Republican nominee. Turnout for the election was low, as expected. Massachusetts has had its share of elections this year, with a Senate special election earlier in 2013 and several local town elections. The 5th district is solidly blue and the competitive race was the Democratic primary. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Clark is expected to easily win the general election on December 10th.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) will be the next senator from New Jersey. Booker easily cruised to victory on Wednesday, beating opponent Steve Lonegan (R). Booker had been consistently ahead in the polls leading up to the election. Booker will replace Sen. Jeffrey Chiesa (R), who was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Christie (R) after Sen. Launtenberg (D) passed away in June. This changes the Senate breakdown to 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans. Booker is up for re-election in November 2014.

New poll numbers for the Virginia gubernatorial race dropped this week, giving McAuliffe (D) an edge over the other candidates. In the Politico poll released Monday, 44 percent of Virginians support Terry McAuliffe (D), 35 percent support Ken Cuccinelli (R), and 12 percent support Robert Sarvis (Lib). Further polls from Roanoke College and Christopher Newport University also show McAuliffe running ahead of Cuccinelli, by 6 points and 9 points, respectively.

These polls show a significant change from a few months back. At the beginning of the year, McAuliffe and Cuccinelli ran even at about 36 percent each. When the influx of negative ads began to hit the airwaves in July, both men saw their number take a significant dip, with McAuliffe maintaining a slight edge, and then gaining more steam in September and October.

Two major factors that could be playing into the recent numbers are the addition of Robert Sarvis (Lib) to the polls and the effect of the recent government shutdown. Sarvis was not included in several of the early polling reports. Now that he is, he could be taking away support for the other two candidates, changing the poll dynamics. According to a recent Politico poll, 14 percent of Virginians who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 have defected in favor of the libertarian candidate. The shutdown has also had a large impact on Virginia, a state known for its federal employee and military presence. Polls show that Americans, Virginians included, blame republicans more than democrats for the shutdown, which could put a damper on Cuccinelli’s (R) numbers, if voters associate him with the Republican Party. No matter the reasons, the polls all seem to be on the same page about one thing. McAuliffe (D) has the lead in the race going in to the final few weeks and Cuccinelli (R) has an uphill battle to climb if he wants to be the next governor of Virginia.

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Source: National Journal