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Crystal Ball, Crystal Ball, Show Me November 5

10/29/2014

by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

With the midterm election less than a week away on November 4, there is more uncertainty of what the Senate results will be than in any recent election. While every election night holds surprises (remember Eric Cantor?), next Tuesday night we may be in store for several surprises and upsets.

The races that are most competitive with a week to go are the Republican held seats in Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia and the Democrat held seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado and Alaska.

So, let's rub the crystal ball and see what emerges....

A couple of assumptions: First, let's assume Republicans win South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia, giving them three pickups. Republicans have held consistent double digit leads in all three seats for months. Also, we can safely assume that Louisiana will go to a run off on December 6th and in that scenario is considered a toss-up.

With KY, KS and GA in the air, but MT, SD and WV likely additions, Republicans start with a 45 seat foundation.

With MI, LA, NC, NH, CO, AR, AK, and IA in the air, Democrats start with a foundation of 44 seats.
Republicans need to get to 51 for a majority because at 50-50, Vice President Joe Biden is the tie-breaker on behalf of Democrats.

Polling averages in many of these races have been fairly consistent for the last month, indicating that the races have settled a bit. While all are very close (within the margin of error in most cases) the stability of the leader hasn't shifted in over a month in many of these.

Republicans have held a consistent lead in Kentucky, Arkansas, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado.

Democrats have held steady leads in North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire.

The three wild cards are Kansas, Georgia and Louisiana. Louisiana, as we have said, is likely to go to a runoff which will be held December 6. Increasingly, a runoff is also the most likely scenario in Georgia, but this one held January 6. Kansas is the other real toss up and is complicated by the fact that Republican Pat Roberts isn't running against a Democrat, he's running against an Independent, Greg Orman, who hasn't said if he would caucus with Republicans or Democrats, but has hinted that he will work with whoever is in the majority. (Just to make it more fun, remember that Maine Independent Angus King has ALSO said he reserves the right to switch and caucus with Republicans if they take the majority).

If current polling trends hold steady for another week and predict who will win each state (a BIG "if"), then Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC. KS and GA are both tied. That puts Republicans at 50 seats with three in the air. In a 50-50 tie, Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed.
So, understanding that there will be at least one and probably two races outstanding, and possibly two Senators who could caucus with either party, what are the various scenarios and how likely are we to see each on the morning of November 5th?

Democrats Hold the Senate:
Democrats holding the Senate is the least likely scenario. It would mean that Republicans won no more than two of the following: MI, NH, NC, CO, AR, AK, IA and/or lost seats in Georgia or Kentucky (or Orman wins Kansas and immediately announces as a Democrat). Given the consistent polling advantage Republican candidates enjoy a week before the election, this is an unlikely scenario.

Likelihood: 15%

Republicans Win the Senate:
For Republicans to know on November 5th that they will be in the majority in the Senate in the next Congress is more likely than Democrats knowing that THEY will be in the majority, but still not certain. For this to happen, with Louisiana still out, would mean that Republicans won three or more of the races listed above AND swept GA, KY and KS. With Republicans leading in polls in AR, CO, IA and AK, the first part of that equation is possible, but the second part is deicer. A possible scenario is Roberts wins Kansas, GA and LA go to runoffs. In this case, Republicans would have 51 and be in the majority regardless of the outcome of Georgia or Louisiana runoffs.

Likelihood: 40%

Majority Control is Unclear:
An equally likely scenario is that we still won't know who will control the Senate on the morning after the election. If current polling holds through Election Day, Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC. KS and GA are both tied and LA is already headed to a runoff. That puts Republicans at 50 seats and Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed.

Likelihood: 45%

The permutations of which party Orman (and King) would caucus with, the results of runoffs, if any state switches from one side to the other in current polling (remember that ALL of these races are still within the margin of error) then we are in for an unpredictable Election Night where anything is possible the next morning.

The one thing you CAN count on is receiving the latest updates and analysis from BIPAC so your members and employees will have the most updated information possible.

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Online Influence of the Action Fund's Latest Endorsements

10/22/2014

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by Jason Langsner, Director of New Media and Communications

Last week the BIPAC Action Fund released its final set of candidate endorsements for 2014 (see below). To follow-up from those endorsements, the following Election Insights looks quantitatively at each endorsed candidate's race and provides a summary of how they are engaging with potential voters across social media as-compared-to the other party's candidate.

Candidates' social voices ranged from the high 40s to low 60s as defined by the Klout.com scale of influence, which goes up to 100. As points of comparison, Speaker of the House John Boehner's official channel (@johnboehner) has a score of 87 and President Obama's official channel (@barackobama) has a score of 99.

The range of those that like the candidates' pages on Facebook and follow them on Twitter ranges from a few hundred to an outlier of 128k. Some candidates are thus investing more in social and new media with their paid advertising strategy than others who are relying on organic growth and a content strategy that isn't promoted by ads. Counting followers though doesn't provide a true metric of how engaged the candidates are with their desired audience of potential voters. Klout is a bit better, but a true metric is to look at the sentiment of what is being said about the candidates. For instance in the Alaska Senate race, those sharing on social media about Dan Sullivan are posting at a 4:1 positive-to-negative ration; as-compared-to a 1:1 ratio for Begich (source: SocialMention.com).

Listening to the campaigns on social media helps to guide our strategy, but what impacts the strategy and makes a difference is the work being done on the ground by our members and partners. BIPAC itself has assets on the ground across the U.S. in key election states of importance to our private sector community. What we are seeing throughout the country in our grassroots political training workshops will provide the impact.

A Twitter channel cannot vote but the individual behind the online identity can - and BIPAC, plus our members and partners, want to make sure that private sector employees are registered and educated about the issues of importance to their job, company, and industry.

Employees Vote (and tweet) in 2014.

BIPAC Action Fund Final Endorsed Candidates' Online Voice

BIPAC Action Fund Final Endorsed Candidates' Online Voice

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Less Than Two Weeks To Go and ANYTHING Could Happen

10/22/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

There are 10 U.S. Senate races that are toss-ups with the candidates within five points of each other and no candidate polling over 50%.

Approval ratings for both parties are at historic lows.
Confidence in Congress to solve even minor problems is at a historic low.
There has been more money spent on midterm elections than ever before. By a lot.
Voter enthusiasm and engagement is significantly lower than 2006 or 2010 midterms.
That is a recipe for unpredictability.

There are two really remarkable things about this mid-term Senate election. The first is the sheer number of highly competitive Senate races. The second is just how close so many of them remain with less than two weeks before Election Day.

In recent weeks, polling has tightened in two races that had been considered likely to go Republican - South Dakota and Georgia. Other races that had already been considered competitive are seeming even more so in the closing weeks.

In a typical election cycle, there are four or five Senate races that are considered highly competitive. This year, there are 10. Two held by Republicans and eight held by Democrats. Two additional Democratic held seats in Montana and West Virginia are likely to switch to Republican control. If that happens, Republicans would need to net four additional seats to take control of the Senate.

If Republicans lose either Georgia or Kansas, currently held by Republicans, it makes it very difficult for them to win a majority in the Senate. The seats that have long been considered competitive, currently held by Democrats all remain so. Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Dakota are states all carried by Mitt Romney in 2012 with Democratic incumbents and have been top Republican targets for over a year. Other Democratic held seats that could go either way include Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire.

Polling averages in ALL of these races have less than a five point difference between the top candidates and none have a candidate breaking 50%. With less than two weeks to go, that is truly unprecedented.

In a political environment where both parties' approval ratings and public confidence in the ability of Congress to solve even minor problems has dwindled to record low levels, there is such broad dissatisfaction with Washington and politics, it makes for a very volatile electorate. Polling results are increasingly unreliable and even more so in an unpredictable, low turnout, mid-term election. The result is less clarity about what may happen on Election Day than at any time in recent history.
We have seen some unexpected results already, most notably the surprise loss of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in his primary. More such surprises are likely in store for November 4.

With voter enthusiasm at such low levels and so many races that could go either way, engaging and mobilizing your workforce is more important than ever and allows your voice to be magnified so much more in determining the result of these elections. In the closing days of one of the wildest and most unpredictable elections cycles in a long time, your leadership in employee engagement is critical.

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Senate Outlook - One Month Out

10/8/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

We are now 27 days out from the election and into the final stretch. Below is BIPAC's Senate Rankings for 2014, and today's EIS will focus on the current trajectory of the competitive races, including the Lean Republican, Toss Up and Lean Democrat.

Overview

Typically races move on or off the competitive playing field as the election cycle progresses, but this cycle has remained remarkably steady with the races that were thought to be competitive a year out still being the ones that are competitive less than a month out and with very few new races creeping into the competitive category. All of the races outlined below are still considered highly competitive, but some are beginning to drift one way or another and are designated as "lean" towards one party or the other.

Lean Republican

AR: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) has been on the list of most vulnerable Democrats for a while now, and not much is changing. Pryor is relatively well liked and his family has been involved in Arkansas politics for years, but Arkansas is a solidly red state now at the federal level. Romney won by 24 points in 2012 and Pyror is the only Democrat left in the federal delegation. Most polls have Rep. Tom Cotton (R) leading the race by an average four points, with Pryor stuck around 40% - bad numbers for an incumbent.

GA: Democrats fielded an impressive candidate in Michelle Nunn (D), who has given Republicans a competitive race in Georgia. However, now that the Republican primary is over and David Perdue (R) has coalesced the Republican base, he is starting to pull away in the polls and currently leads by about three points. While Perdue is leading, both candidates are still under 50%, and if neither get a majority of the vote, this race will go into a runoff on January 6th. Runoffs tend to favor Republicans, especially in a midterm election year, and depending how the other races flesh out on Election Day, this could be the race that decides the control of the Senate.

KY: Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) has been an impressive candidate, but Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) has double downed and with Pres. Obama's dismal approval ratings in this coal state, the race is looking less and less competitive as we head into October. Currently, McConnell leads on average by about five points, with his lead widening in the past few weeks. This is still a competitive race, but McConnell has the advantage in the home stretch.

LA: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) continues to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle. With no candidate in this race polling above 50%, it is likely the race will be decided in a runoff on December 6th. If Democrats hold the Senate, Landrieu will become Chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which Democrats hoped would give her an edge in this race. Cassidy however has run a good campaign and President Obama's approval rating in Louisiana is underwater. Control of the Senate may come down to the LA runoff, and in the runoff polling, Cassidy leads by about six points.

Toss Up

AK: Sen. Mark Begich (D) is faring better than some of his colleagues this cycle, but still faces an extremely competitive race against former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan. Polling in Alaska has been all over the place the past few months, with Begich and Sullivan both leading at one point or another. With a very late Republican primary over, Sullivan has begun his general election campaigning in full and is leading the polls by 3-6 points. However, polling in Alaska is notoriously difficult. This could go either way at this point.

CO: This is a tossup race that no one had on their radar a year ago, with Rep. Gory Gardner (R) entering the race in March. Since Gardner entered, polls showed him statistically tied with Sen. Mark Udall (D) and that has continued throughout the summer and into the final stretch. Pres. Obama won Colorado in 2012 by five points, but his approval ratings continue to drop, hurting Udall's chances. Gov. Hickenlooper (D) also faces a competitive election this cycle, which could further hurt Udall's reelection campaign. Expect this race to stay a tossup until the election.

IA: Since Joni Ernst (R) won the GOP nomination in June, this race has been a tossup. Democratic nominee Rep. Bruce Braley (D) has had trouble connecting with voters and like most other Democrats running this cycle, has had to distance himself from Pres. Obama's negative approval numbers in the state. He also does not have the advantage of incumbency, like several of the other Democratic candidates this cycle. Ernst has run a strong campaign and Republicans are hopeful that having popular Gov. Branstad (R) on the ticket as well will help her chances. Ernst currently leads Braley by an average of two points - still within the margin of error.

KS: Kansas has become the wild card race this election cycle. Sen. Pat Roberts (R) faces a surprisingly competitive general election after being damaged in the primary. The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, had little name ID or funds for the general election. He has been removed from the ballot, presenting a clear path for a challenge to Roberts by Independent candidate Greg Orman. Orman has affiliated with each party over the years and describes himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate. He has not indicated which party he would caucus with if elected. On average, Orman is leading Roberts in the polls by five points though Roberts and outside groups have just begun attacking Orman who had been running months of positive ads, so the race is expected to tighten as the attacks sink in with voters. Further complicating Roberts' reelection chances is Gov. Sam Brownback (R), who is also up for re-election this cycle and is losing support from the more moderate wing of the Republican Party in Kansas. This Senate race is currently a tossup and Roberts has become the most vulnerable Republican Senator this cycle.

Lean Democrat

MI: For the past few months, Rep. Gary Peters (D) has been leading in the polls against former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R). Michigan went for Pres. Obama in 2012 and is the only state Pres. Obama is visiting with a Senate race this fall, showing his national brand is not as damaged in Michigan as it is in other Senate states. Peters is up by an average of seven points and this seat is leaning in his favor.

NH: Carpet bagging attacks against former MA Senator Scott Brown (R) don't appear to be sticking and this race is getting closer and closer as we approach November. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) had a double digit lead in the summer, but now only leads by an average of five points. While NH is currently in the lean D column, it could soon be moved to toss up, if the poll numbers continue to tighten. Shaheen is well liked in the state, but Pres. Obama is underwater in NH and Brown is campaigning heavily on foreign policy, nationalizing the race. New Hampshire, more than any other state, has a tendency to sway with the political winds, going heavily Democratic in strong Democratic years and strongly Republican in good GOP years. If anyone could survive those powerful electoral winds, it would be Shaheen but the state's electoral tendencies run deep with the voters here.

NC: Once of the more vulnerable Senators running for re-election, Kay Hagan (D) has started to pull away from state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in the polls, and if this trend continues, will be favored for re-election. Tillis, coming from an unpopular legislative session, has been dropping in the polls, and his favorability ratings are less than Hagan, with only 36% of voters having a favorable view, compared to Hagan's 42%. The North Carolina race has turned into a lesser of two evils race, with Hagan currently in the lead.

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House Races You May Not Be Watching, But Should

10/1/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

While Republicans are expected to expand their majority in the House due to a significantly higher number of Democrats facing competitive races and the Republican lean of the election cycle, there are always a few surprises on election night. Below are a few of the races that haven't topped most political radars, but are proving to be some of the most interesting contests in the country.

ME-2
Rep. Mike Michaud's (D) open seat features one of the most interesting political dynamics in the country for the business community. Maine has a history of centrist consensus builders like Rep. Mike Michaud, former Sen. Olympia Snowe (R), Sen. Angus King (I), Sen. Susan Collins (R) and former Sen. Bill Cohen (R). The Democrat nominee, 35 year old State Senator Emily Cain, seems cut from a similar cloth and has a reputation of open-door, consensus building in the state legislature admired even by her political opponents. Her voting record however is reliably progressive and pro-labor.   Bruce Poliquin, who beat an Olympia Snowe protégé in the primary with a tea-party oriented message on taxes and spending, is the Republican nominee who would likely be a reliable business vote. The district tilts slightly Democratic but as an open seat, it is very much a toss-up. The candidates involved leave the business community in a quandary: a Democrat who won't vote with you as frequently but can help build consensus to get things working better in Washington versus a more reliable vote.

CA-3
Democrat incumbent John Garamendi is facing Republican State Senator Dan Logue. Garamendi is a reliable vote for home state colleague Nancy Pelosi (D) and scored just 4% on BIPAC's Outline for Prosperity vote guide. Logue meanwhile has a perfect record with both NFIB and the CalChamber but more interesting is Logue's approach to public service. A good government reformer and consensus builder at heart, Logue does things like assembling a bi-partisan team to hold meetings with CEOs who have taken their businesses out of California and asking what, specifically, it would take for them to return to the state. He has used his position to force local governments to be more transparent in contracting which saved millions of tax dollars and created an even playing field for all.   Garamendi won in 2012 with less than 55% of the vote and Logue's Assembly district is almost wholly within the Congressional district. While it is a Democrat leaning seat, with an off-year electorate, an incumbent who is to the left of the voters and a reform oriented Republican with a record of bi-partisanship, CA-3 is a ripe opportunity for a surprise on election night.

IA-1
Rep. Bruce Braley (D) will need a big turnout in his home district to win his Senate race in what is considered the most heavily Democratic district in the state at D+5 and having voted for Pres. Obama with 56% of the vote in 2012. Dynamics on the ground however are making this one of the most interesting races in the country to watch. Democrat Speaker of the House Pat Murphy has a long, very adversarial relationship with the business community in Iowa and beat two other much more centrist Democrats to win the nomination. First time candidate Republican Rod Blum conversely was named Entrepreneur of the Year in Iowa for growing his software company from 5 employees to 325.   In this rural district, NFIB and the NRA are brand names that Democrats have always worked hard to court and both have endorsed Blum this year. An early September poll showed a two point race - closer than the open 3rd district seat which had been considered to be much more competitive. Blum has surprised many with his adept campaign ability and slow and steady work to win over voters. With Murphy so far to the left of the district and a popular Governor Branstad (R) driving turnout at the top of the ticket, Iowa's first district could be at the top of the list of races with a surprising result.

AR-2
In the race to fill the open seat of Rep. Tim Griffin (R), the business community quickly rallied around Republican banker French Hill and Democrats chose North Little Rock Mayor Patrick Henry Hays (who has one of the best candidate names of the cycle). On the surface, it seemed a safe bet to hold the seat for Republicans, but it has become one of the sleeper races the Democrats hope to pick off. It is Arkansas' most Democratic district and voted for Obama by 8 points more than any other Congressional District in the state. Senator Mark Pryor will be pushing a big Democratic turnout in Hays' Little Rock backyard if he is going to have a chance at reelection and Hays has focused like a laser on job creation, running some of the most effective TV ads of the cycle.   Observers in the state still give an edge to Hill, but Hays has proven to be a much more formidable candidate than anticipated and Hill's patrician demeanor in the most Democratic leaning district in the state COULD result in a surprise Democratic pickup in the deep south.

NY-11
You would think a Republican in a district carried by Barack Obama who was caught on camera threatening to kill a news reporter and being under FBI indictment would pretty much end his chances at reelection. If so, you aren't familiar with the political dynamics on Staten Island and Rep. Michael Grimm. Staten Island has always felt itself different and separate from New York, even voting to secede as recently as 1993. They are the picked on little brother who gets little but scorn from the rest of the cosmopolitan world capital. Michael Grimm is one of them. On a visceral level, he understands and relates to them - and vice versa. The district also has a couple of precincts in Brooklyn, which may as well be in Connecticut for the impact they have on the thinking of the district. It is from one of these precincts that Democrat Councilman Domenic Recchia hails. Staten Island has the highest percentage of Italian ancestry in the country according to the Almanac of American Politics. Grimm and Recchia both have Italian heritage, but Grimm's Staten Island roots and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio's (D) unpopularity in the district may show that Grimm, despite the politics of the district, despite federal indictments, despite threats to reporters, has a real chance to hold his seat. If he does, it will be one of the most remarkable results of the election.

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