BIPAC CEO Greg Casey discusses how we got to the fiscal cliff and what Congress needs to do to prevent fiscal disaster.

Congress Addresses The Fiscal Cliff, Impending Expiry of Tax Cuts, Sequestration & Military Spending

As the election cycle concludes, people may feel this is the end of a hotly contested political battle, but it is only the beginning for lawmakers, those staying for another term in Washington and those freshmen who have been elected and are now seeking change. Those who have lost their seats now enter into an unfamiliar phase called lame duck. Lame Duck is the nickname given to the sessions of Congress that occur between November 6th and January 20th. This is sure to be a very tense period because of the critical state of our economy. It is also the time in which new leadership is elected in both chambers and new members of Congress are sworn in.

The Lame Duck session provides a balance between the major issues facing the entire country and those smaller issues that certain corporations and industries want to see passed. The big issues in this particular session are going to be the fiscal cliff, the impending expiry of tax cuts, sequestration and military spending. A major issue which only came up a short time ago is a potential FEMA grant bill, which is sure to be brought up as a result of Hurricane Sandy. Not only will the issue of extra grants be raised, but we’ll likely see legislation on climate change with these sorts of natural disasters being more and more common. With a divided Congress, there is sure to be gridlock on a host of issues, whether they are the major or not.

Although our civic duty to vote is now over, and though we are handing over our trust to the lawmakers to see that this country gets back on the road to recovery, it is critical that the public still remain engaged with their leaders to ensure we see real reform. The lame duck session will hopefully be a step in that direction, but only time will tell.

President
- Barack Obama:
50%, 303 Electoral Votes
- Mitt Romney:
48%, 206 Electoral Votes
- Note: Florida’s 29 electoral votes have not officially been called but President Obama leads the raw number count
- Switches from 2008: IN, NC, NE 02 switch from D to R

Senate
- Next Senate: 55 D (includes 2 Ind’s expected to caucus w/D), 45 R
- Net gain of +2 for Dems
- Of 33 on ballot (23 D, 8 R, 2 Ind)
- Freshman Class: 12 (8 D, 3R, 1 Ind)
- 1 incumbent lost in General Election (Scott Brown-MA, R)
- 1 incumbent lost in Primary Election (Dick Lugar-IN, R)
- Switches:
- R to D: IN, MA
- D to R: NE
- I to D: CT
- R to I: ME

*House
- 113th House will have approximately 236 R and 199 D
- If numbers hold, approximately net gain of +6 for D
- Freshman class: at least 80, 35 R and 42 D, 3 yet to be called (AZ 1, AZ 9, CA 26)
- Democrats lost 9 incumbents (Chandler-KY, Kissell-NC, Critz-PA, Hochul-NY, Sutton-OH, Stark-CA, Boswell-IA, Berman-CA, Richardson-CA)
- Republicans lost 14 incumbents (Bartlett-MD, Rivera-FL, Buerkle-NY, Bass-NH, Dold-IL, Walsh-IL, Biggert-IL, Schilling-IL, Guinta-NH, West-FL, Canseco-TX, Hayworth-NY, Cravaak-MN, LA runoff TBD)

Governor
- Current governors breakdown 30 R and 19 D and 1 Ind
- Of the 11 on the ballot 4 R and 6 D (WA still TBD)
- Net gain of +1 R

*Due to the complications of redistricting the House numbers are unusually confusing. For a more thorough explanation contact a BIPAC staff member.

A strong indication of who is going to win the Presidential election comes from exit polling results. A conglomerate of news outlets, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News Channel, NBC and the AP, are responsible for creating preliminary results for viewers to get an early indication of who is going to win a certain state. This year, however, cutbacks have been put in place regarding how extensive the polling will be in certain states; in 19 states, AK, AR, DE, GA, HI, ID, KY, LA, NE, ND, OK, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV and WY, the barest form of polling will occur, as opposed to full reports being conducted in all states in election cycles past.

In previous election years, full reports were conducted in each state, with a series of questions posed to the people being interviewed. Among the questions were: for whom they were voting, which age group they belonged to, and which issues were most critical in leading up to a decision. Such reports will still be conducted in 31 states. In the other 19 states however, the exit polls have been stripped to a singular question of who the interviewed person is voting for. These polls are happening exclusively in non-battleground states where no surprises are expected to occur. One of the main disadvantages of this system is that extensive post-race analysis will not be available for all of the states.

The reasoning for such a system comes down to the conglomerate of news outlets wanting to dedicate their resources to the most critical states, thereby giving the public concise analysis in states that dictated the outcome of the election. Early voting has also proved to be a stumbling block for pollsters, who now are forced to conduct cell phone interviews, as opposed to in-person interviews, which has increased costs greatly.

While the citizens of every state will not be awarded with in-depth analysis of their state’s races, it serves a bigger purpose in giving the entire nation a better idea of where the Presidential races were won and lost.

As we watch the results roll in, Greg Casey shares insights on the accuracy of exit polls.

Greg Casey talks about the road ahead for America post-election and the realities we face.

Voters will elect at least 62 newcomers to the 113th Congress tomorrow. There are currently 62 open seats as a result of retirements, resignations & lost primary elections. For a list of where we can guarantee a new face see below.

U.S. House
OPEN SEATS (62)

AZ 1 HOLE
AZ 5 OPEN Flake (R)
AZ 9 ADDED

AR 4 OPEN Ross (D)

CA 1 OPEN Herger (R)
CA 2 OPEN Woolsey (D)
CA 8 OPEN Lewis (R)
CA 21 HOLE
CA 26 OPEN Gallegly (R)
CA 29 HOLE
CA 41 HOLE
CA 47 HOLE
CA 51 OPEN Filner (D)

CT 5 OPEN Murphy (D)

FL 3 Lost primary Stearns (R)
FL 6 HOLE
FL 9 ADDED
FL 19 OPEN Mack (R)
FL 22 ADDED

GA 9 ADDED

HI 2 OPEN Hirono (D)

IL 12 OPEN Costello (D)
IL 13 OPEN Johnson (R)

IN 2 OPEN Donnelly (D)
IN 5 OPEN Pence (R)
IN 6 OPEN Burton (R)

KY 4 OPEN Davis (R) VAC

MA 4 OPEN Frank (D)

MI 5 OPEN Kildee (D)
MI 11 OPEN McCotter (R) VAC

MO 2 OPEN Akin (R)

MT/AL OPEN Rehberg (R)

NV 1 OPEN Berkley (D)
NV 4 ADDED

NJ 10 OPEN Payne (D) VAC

NM 1 OPEN Heinrich (D)

NY 6 OPEN Ackerman (D)
NY 8 OPEN Towns (D)

NC 9 OPEN Myrick (R)
NC 11 OPEN Shuler (D)
NC 13 OPEN Miller (D)

ND A/L OPEN Berg (R)

OH 2 Lost primary Schmitt (R)
OH 3 HOLE
OH 14 OPEN LaTourette (R)

OK 1 Lost primary Sullivan (R)
OK 2 OPEN Boren (D)

PA 4 OPEN Platts (R)
PA 17 Lost primary Holden (D)

SC 7 ADDED

TX 14 OPEN Paul (R)
TX 16 Lost primary Reyes (D)
TX 20 OPEN Gonzalez (D)
TX 25 ADDED
TX 33 ADDED
TX 34 ADDED
TX 36 ADDED

UT 2 ADDED

WA 1 OPEN Inslee (D) VAC
WA 6 OPEN Dicks (D)
WA 10 ADDED

WI 2 OPEN Baldwin (D)