With congressional primaries now complete in 14 states, incumbents in the U.S. House have won 100 out of 101 races where the incumbent is on the ballot and not facing another member of congress. A 99% winning mark doesn’t exactly look like an anti-incumbent election year to date. While there are plenty of incumbents on the hot seat and several will lose this cycle, the election is not so much about being an incumbent. The election is more about where a candidate (incumbent or challenger) stands on moving this county’s economy forward. In the increasingly more competitive U.S. Senate, 5 of the 6 incumbents have won (83%).
In Kentucky, five of the six incumbents are seeking re-election and only one faced an opponent in their primary. In the Louisville-based 3rd district, three term Rep. John Yarmuth (D) easily dispatched his lone perennial opponent, Burrel Farnsley, with over 86% of the vote and will face Brooks Wicker (R), who ran unopposed in the GOP primary, in November. While KY-3 was made a slightly more Democrat district following redistricting, many districts that are along the Ohio River tend to be districts that can and will switch their support for Democrat or Republicans. Many of these Ohio River districts have switched party control during the last decade, including KY-3 when Yarmuth beat incumbent Rep. Anne Northup in 2006. Yarmuth also defeated Northup in a 2008 rematch. Republicans will hope that the President will be a drag on Yarmuth’s numbers and that the financial advisor Wicker, who lost in the 2010 GOP primary, can catch fire to make this a competitive race.
Representative Geoff Davis (R) is one of 45 House members not seeking re-election to the House this year creating an open seat in KY-4. The 4th district stretches from east of Louisville to the West Virginia border in the east with the Covington area (Cincinnati suburbs) serving as the population base of the district. Tea Party backed candidate, Thomas Massie (R), was able to fight off better known Republican candidates state Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington and Boone County Judge Gary Moore.
Bill Adkins (D) won the Democrat nomination and will now face Massie in the fall. Massie, who holds two engineering degrees from M.I.T. and is the Lewis County Judge Executive, will be a heavy favorite in what may now be the most Republican district in the state following redistricting. Sen. Rand Paul (R) cut an ad for Massie and Massie cites massive cuts in government spending at the county level as a major achievement.
In Kentucky, five of the six incumbents are seeking re-election and only one faced an opponent in their primary. In the Louisville-based 3rd district, three term Rep. John Yarmuth (D) easily dispatched his lone perennial opponent, Burrel Farnsley, with over 86% of the vote and will face Brooks Wicker (R), who ran unopposed in the GOP primary, in November. While KY-3 was made a slightly more Democrat district following redistricting, many districts that are along the Ohio River tend to be districts that can and will switch their support for Democrat or Republicans. Many of these Ohio River districts have switched party control during the last decade, including KY-3 when Yarmuth beat incumbent Rep. Anne Northup in 2006. Yarmuth also defeated Northup in a 2008 rematch. Republicans will hope that the President will be a drag on Yarmuth’s numbers and that the financial advisor Wicker, who lost in the 2010 GOP primary, can catch fire to make this a competitive race.
Representative Geoff Davis (R) is one of 45 House members not seeking re-election to the House this year creating an open seat in KY-4. The 4th district stretches from east of Louisville to the West Virginia border in the east with the Covington area (Cincinnati suburbs) serving as the population base of the district. Tea Party backed candidate, Thomas Massie (R), was able to fight off better known Republican candidates state Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington and Boone County Judge Gary Moore.
Bill Adkins (D) won the Democrat nomination and will now face Massie in the fall. Massie, who holds two engineering degrees from M.I.T. and is the Lewis County Judge Executive, will be a heavy favorite in what may now be the most Republican district in the state following redistricting. Sen. Rand Paul (R) cut an ad for Massie and Massie cites massive cuts in government spending at the county level as a major achievement.
In Arkansas, the three Republican incumbents seeking re-election, Rep. Rick Crawford (R-AR1), Rep. Tim Griffin (R-AR2) and Rep. Steve Womack (R-AR3) were all unopposed in the primary.In the 4th district, incumbent Rep. Mike Ross (D) is not seeking re-election. The Democrat winner looking to replace Ross will be decided with a June 12 run-off between state Sen. Gene Jeffress (D) and attorney Bryum Hurst (D). Jeffress received 40% to 36% for Hurst. To avoid a run-off, a candidate needed greater than 50% of the vote. The winner will face Republican nominee Tom Cotton, who avoided a run-off with 57% of the vote. Cotton, an Army veteran and management consultant, received support from several conservative organizations and was the leading fundraiser. Cotton will be the slight favorite to win in November and would thus likely make the Arkansas delegation 4-0 Republican. Also on the horizon for Arkansas could be a party change at the state legislative level to Republican control.
Similar to a handful of other Southern states, President Obama recorded low winning percentages in both Arkansas and Kentucky. And, like the other states before, these numbers really mean nothing at the end of the day. These states are not in play in trying to achieve the quest to receive the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
Similar to a handful of other Southern states, President Obama recorded low winning percentages in both Arkansas and Kentucky. And, like the other states before, these numbers really mean nothing at the end of the day. These states are not in play in trying to achieve the quest to receive the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
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