California Commission Is Not As Advertised & Democrats Record A Couple Of Big Victories

In the last couple of weeks the big states of California, Illinois, and Texas produced what will be some of the biggest stories related to redistricting battles that followed the 2010 reapportionment.

I am convinced after spending all day Monday with California redistricting experts that the new California Redistricting Commission is far from what the model that states should copy, which is a story line that some have been pushing recently.  I am also convinced that no matter what set of maps the Commission approves, you will see plenty of lawsuits and since the Department of Justice (DOJ) has to approve the maps drawn in four counties due to the Voting Rights Act (VRA), you may even see the maps redrawn by the courts.  Stayed tuned to California because it has several headlines yet unwritten.

In the typical “in your face” political style of Chicago, Illinois Democrats make it clear they intend to turn back Republican gains of 2010.  While many states may hide behind nice PR driven comments that make you think their process is removed of politics, not in Illinois.  In a state that loses one Congressional seat and has five freshman Republicans, many of those freshman will be one term and done.

It is quite realistic that Illinois and California will net 7 to 9 seats in Congress for Democrats in just about any election environment.

Texas has now passed state legislative maps and is on the verge of passing congressional maps too.  With huge population growth fueled by Hispanics, the four seats Texas gained in reapportionment will likely be initially split evenly between the two parties.

At this still early stage in the redistricting process, Democrats must feel better than Republicans as a result of big changes in California and Illinois and no significant cumulative gains for Republicans.

Here are some state redistricting updates since my last redistricting article:

California

Initial maps have been revealed and would likely lead to a gain of four seats by Democrats in Congress.  Democrats may also end up with two-thirds control of both the State Senate and Assembly.  Latino voters in the state appear to be well positioned for a strong VRA challenge on the lack of majority-minority districts created for Latino’s by the Redistricting Commission.

Colorado

The Colorado Reapportionment Commission, which handles only the state legislative maps, held its first official meeting this week.  A statewide plan must be submitted to the Colorado Supreme Court by October 7 and the approved version filed with the Secretary of State by December 14, 2011.

Louisiana

The DOJ has given approval of the State House of Representative maps.  According to House Speaker Algiers, this is the first time the DOJ has approved a House map without being redrawn by the courts or lawmakers.  Despite increasing the number of minority districts from 27 to 29, the Legislative Black Caucus is considering a lawsuit to challenge the maps.  Looks like the Speaker began celebrating a little too soon.

Maine

Maine’s deadline to approve Congressional redistricting by 2013 has been changed by a federal three judge panel.  The legislature will now try to complete the task this September in time for the 2012 elections, as ordered by the judges.  The state legislative maps will still be drawn in 2013, ensuring that redistricting will be at least a three year process across the country.

Michigan

Republicans will be moving to pass all maps as quickly as possible.  Republican control the process and it appears the congressional map will throw Democratic Reps. Sander Levin and Gary Peters into the same district.  Maps must be approved and signed by the Governor by November 1, 2011.

North Carolina

State legislative maps have been proposed and the issue of packing minority voters will be a key issue to watch here.  Republicans have increased the number of majority-minority districts (districts with a minority population greater than 50%) in the House to 24 in the House and to 10 in the Senate.  Republicans will argue this is to meet the strict guidelines set by the Voting Rights Act while Democrats will be upset that African-American voters are being “packed” into districts to reduce the overall number of potentially Democrat seats.  Mixing race, redistricting and politics is a sure way to lead to a continuous decade in the North Carolina legislature.

Ohio

Another big state to watch gets started on Congressional redistricting.  13 of the 18 seats are held by Republicans while the state loses two districts due to reapportionment.  Holding on to 13 Republicans in 16 districts during the next decade will be a steep challenge for the GOP in Ohio.  While the Republican controlled legislature will draw the Congressional maps, a State Apportionment Board, also controlled by Republicans, will draw state legislative maps later this year.

Rhode Island

The General Assembly approves the redistricting commission to handle Congressional, State Senate and State House maps with a goal of presenting the General Assembly maps by January 15, 2012.

South Carolina

The legislature is near the end of the process on passing a new Congressional map that would make the seat gained through the 2010 reapportionment a Republican held seat.  A lawsuit is likely since it may be possible to have drawn a VRA protected seat.

Texas

State Legislature has finished drawing Congressional maps, but it took a special session to do so.  Governor Perry, a Republican, is expected to sign the maps drawn by a Republican controlled legislature.  However, Texas is still far from being history.  The DOJ must approve the maps and court challenges are as likely as a humid summer day in DC.  You can expect more interesting stories involving Texas and the DOJ, the courts or both.

Virginia

The DOJ has given approval to the state legislative maps.  Virginia can now move forward with their 2011 state elections consisting of an August primary and a November general election.

Current status on the congressional redistricting process:

Completed congressional redistricting:

AR, IA, IN, MO, OK

Completed congressional redistricting, waiting on approval from the Department of Justice due to compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965:

LA, TX

State Legislature failed to draw a new map.  Map will now be drawn by a Court:

CO, MN, NV

Current status on the state legislative redistricting process

Completed state legislative redistricting:

IA, IL, IN, MS, NE, NJ, OK, OR, TX, VA

Completed state legislative redistricting, waiting on approval from the Department of Justice due to compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965:

AK, AL, LA

State Legislature failed to draw a new map. Map will now be drawn by a Court:

MN, NV

With the conclusion or near conclusion of several state legislative bodies, the attention will begin to shift to special sessions and redistricting commissions over the next couple of months.  We will continue to provide updates to you on this activity and will give you more analysis on states that have completed the redistricting process.

> Check out our maps webpage to learn more about congressional redistricting