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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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BIPAC Action Fund - US House Endorsement Recaps  

7/16/2014

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By Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

Like last week when we reviewed endorsed candidates for US Senate, we urge BIPAC members to support Action Fund endorsed candidate for US House as well.  In each case, candidates met all of the following criteria:

  • Candidate has demonstrated a strong inclination towards working constructively with the business community to grow the economy, create jobs and support private sector growth.
  • The race is highly competitive and support of the business community could be decisive.
  • The candidate has had a personal meeting with a BIPAC Senior Staff person or Board member.
  • There is broad consensus amongst national business organizations, our state partner representing local businesses, BIPAC's Board of Directors and members with operations in the target state or district.
These are all pro-business candidates in races that need and deserve your support to ensure a pro-growth, pro-private sector oriented Congress.  If your PAC and senior leadership has not contributed in these races, we would strongly encourage you to do so.

US House of Representatives
(in alphabetical order)

Don Beyer (D-VA 8): Advanced to general election
Don Beyer won the Democratic nomination for the open seat in this safe Democratic district.   Beyer, former Lieutenant Governor and car dealership owner, faced several candidates in the primary.  He demonstrated a welcomed propensity to working with the business community to solve problems and grow the economy during his time as Lt. Governor.  www.friendsofdonbeyer.com

Mike Bost (R-IL 12): Advanced to general election
State Rep. Mike Bost is running to unseat freshman Rep. Bill Enyart (D).  This is a competitive race with the district being split pretty evenly between Democrat and Republican. Bost has a background in small business, having worked for Bost Trucking, owned by his father and uncle. He has a 79% (2011-2012) and 100% (2009-2008) rating from the Illinois Chamber of Commerce Legislative Ratings. www.bostforcongress.com

Bradley Byrne (R-AL 1): Won special election
Byrne won the special election to replace Rep. Jo Bonner (R) and is now the Congressman from the 1st district. Bradley Byrne (R) is a business attorney and former state legislator and was tasked as CEO of the state's two year college system with reforming the system and restructuring its financial underpinnings.  www.byrneforcongress.com

Buddy Carter (R-GA 1): Runoff election, July 22
State Senator Buddy Carter is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Jack Kingston (R).  Carter is in the runoff with Bob Johnson, a surgeon and Veteran.   Buddy, a pharmacist and businessman, has an A+ legislative rating from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce.  Bob Johnson is running as the tea party oriented candidate, and has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund and the Club for Growth.  Johnson, known to put his foot in his month, recently said "I'd rather see another terrorist attack, truly I would, than to give up my liberty as an American citizen," referring to TSA screenings.  Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement.  Carter was also endorsed by the US Chamber.  www.buddycarterforcongress.com

Mike Coffman (R-CO 6): Advanced to general election
Rep. Mike Coffman faces a competitive general election with Democratic nominee, former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.  This toss up race is a top Democratic target for 2014.  Coffman is a good business ally in the House and scored 95% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  During Romanoff's campaign for US Senate last election, he positioned himself distinctly to the left of current Democratic Senator Michael Bennett and actively opposed many key priorities of the Colorado business community.  This is one of the most competitive districts in the country and one of the clearest distinctions between a pro-jobs, pro-prosperity consensus building candidate in Coffman and a hard left avowed opponent of the business community.  www.coffmanforcongress.com

Mike Collins (R-GA 10): Runoff election, July 22
Mike Collins is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Paul Broun (R).  Mike Collins came in second place in the primary election and faces a runoff with Baptist Pastor and radio talk show host Jody Hice, who garnered 34% of the vote.  Hice, who has been endorsed by the Tea Party Leadership Fund PAC and Citizens United Political Victory Fund, has stated a number of positions opposed by local, state and national business organizations. Hice is also the founder and President of Ten Commandments - Georgia, Inc., which describes itself as a "grassroots organization committed to the task of locating, educating, and motivating citizens to acknowledge God through knowing, obeying, and displaying the Ten Commandments." Collins, a businessman, owns and runs a trucking company and has gained the support of the business community.   Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement. www.overhauldc.com

Barbara Comstock (R-VA 10): Advanced to general election
Delegate Barbara Comstock won GOP nomination in this competitive open seat. Comstock faced conservative firebrand, state Delegate Bob Marshall. Comstock has a 95% rating from the Virginia Chamber 2013 Legislative Scorecard and is gaining broad national and local GOP and business support for her nomination.  In the general, Comstock faces Democratic nominee Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust. The district has a slight Republican edge, and went to Romney by 1 point in 2012 and Obama by 3 points in 2008. Comstock is supported by the National Association of Manufacturers, the US Chamber of Commerce, and many BIPAC members. www.barbaracomstockforcongress.com

Carlos Curbelo (R-FL 26): Primary, August 26
Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo is challenging Rep. Joe Garcia (D) in this toss up race.  While the general election is expected to be highly competitive, Curbelo also has to make it through a GOP primary.  Curbelo is the frontrunner, and has been endorsed by Jeb Bush, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and most of the Miami area business community. www.carloscurbelo.com

Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL 13): Advanced to general election
Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis (R) won the GOP primary and is now in a competitive general election race. He won with less than 1% of the vote in the 2012 general election.  This is a swing district that went to President Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.  Currently serving on the Agriculture and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, Davis has been a consistent business ally.  Davis is also endorsed by the US Chamber and the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and other Illinois business entities encouraged the BIPAC Action Fund's endorsement. www.ElectRodney.com

Carl DeMaio (R-CA 52): Advanced to general election
Carl DeMaio (R), a former city councilman and mayoral candidate, is a formidable challenger to freshman Rep. Scott Peters (D).   The two made it out of California's top two primary and will be competing in November.   DeMaio is gaining the support of the California business community and this race is expected to be extremely competitive.  www.carldemaio.com

Bob Dold (R-IL 10): Advanced to general election
Former Rep. Bob Dold is challenging Rep. Brad Schneider (D).  This is a rematch from the 2012 race where Dold lost to Schneider by less than 3,500 votes. Rep. Dold scored 82% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record while Schneider has not been a friend during his time in Congress.  BIPAC's state partner, the Illinois Chamber of Commerce has also endorsed Dold.  www.doldforcongress.com

Brian Ellis (R-MI 3): Primary, August 5
Businessman Brian Ellis is challenging Tea Party Rep. Justin Amash in the Republican Primary. Amash has not been a friend to the business community, especially for his part in the Tea Party led government shutdown and efforts to default on federal debt. He also opposed a balanced budget amendment and the Keystone XL pipeline. Ellis has a business and financial services background and the backing of the Grand Rapids business community and the Michigan Chamber of Commerce. This race represents the business community taking an important symbolic stand in favor of pro-business candidates when they mount a primary challenge to non-business oriented candidates. www.ellis4congress.com

David Jolly (R-FL 13): Won special election
David Jolly won the competitive open seat to replace former Congressman Bill Young (R).  This swing district voted for a Republican congressman but went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012.  David Jolly (R) ran against former chief financial officer Alex Sink (D).  Jolly, a government affairs professional and former chief counsel to Young, was supported by the local business community and The Florida Chamber of Commerce, BIPAC's state partner, and several of our national association member. www.DavidJolly.com

Ted Lieu (D-CA 33): Advanced to general election
State Senator Ted Lieu is running in the open seat to replace retiring Rep. Waxman. This seat is heavily Democratic and Lieu's candidacy provides an opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business Democrat. Lieu has received the official endorsement of the Democratic Party and a number of business leaders in the district are supporting Lieu. www.tedlieu.com

Alex Mooney (R-WV 2): General election
Former Maryland State Senator Alex Mooney is running in the West Virginia 2nd Congressional District seat being vacated by Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).  The Democratic nominee is Nick Casey, former Chairman of the WV Democratic Party and a major trial attorney in the state.  Mooney has garnered the support of the business community in West Virginia based on his service in Maryland as well as the openly adversarial positions adopted by Casey.  Mooney has consolidated support from a wide array of Republican groups, including the NRCC Young Guns program and the Senate Conservatives Fund. www.mooneyforcongress.com

Doug Ose (R-CA 7): Advanced to general election
Former Congressman Doug Ose (R) is running in the 7th district, challenging Rep. Ami Bera (D). Ose previously served three terms in the House, first elected in 1998. This is one of the most highly competitive general election races in the country. Ose is supported by the California Prosperity Project and the California Business Roundtable as well as several BIPAC members in the district. www.dougose.com

Colin Peterson (D-MN 7): Primary, August 12
Rep. Colin Peterson is running for re-election in a tough race.  A member of the Blue Dog Coalition, he was first elected in 1990 and is currently the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee.  Peterson scored 86% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  www.petersonforcongress.com

Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID 2): Advanced to general election
Mike Simpson is the Republican incumbent running for re-election to his ninth term.  He has been a strong supporter of the business community throughout his tenure in the House.  Rep. Simpson has a perfect BIPAC voting record of 100% and sits on the House Appropriations Committee.  Simpson was challenged in the Republican primary by tea party candidate and attorney Bryan Smith (R), but easily defeated him.   Simpson is safe in the general.  www.simpsonforcongress.com

Eric Swalwell (D-CA 15): Advanced to general election
Freshman Rep. Eric Swalwell is running for re-election.  In 2012, Swalwell defeated incumbent Rep. Pete Stark (D) in the general election.  During his brief tenure in Congress, Swalwell has impressed the business community in California and nationally for his willingness to seek consensus solutions and actively bring all sides together for productive legislation.  Many BIPAC members with operations in the district are strongly supporting Swalwell's reelection.  www.swalwellforcongress.com

Richard Tisei (R-MA 6): Primary, September 9
Former State Senator Richard Tisei is challenging Rep. John Tierney (D) in a rematch of the 2012 race.  The 6th district is Democratic at the Presidential level but was carried by Republicans for Senate and Governor.  Tierney barely won in 2012 and remains vulnerable after past ethics troubles.  Tierney scored 4% on BIPAC's 112th Congress Voting record and is not a business friendly candidate. Tierney also faces a primary challenger, veteran Seth Moulton in a late primary which make this an even better opportunity to replace him with a business-oriented advocate.  www.tiseiforcongress.com

Andy Tobin (R-AZ 1): Primary, August 26
House Speaker Andy Tobin is looking to unseat Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D).  This is a tossup seat that Kirkpatrick lost in her 2010 reelection bid and won back in 2012.  Tobin is a small business owner who has the backing of the local business community, such as the Arizona Restaurant Association. Other Republican candidates include State Rep. Adam Kwasman, and rancher Gary Kiehne.  www.andytobin.com

Dave Trott (R-MI 11): Primary, August 5
Businessman Dave Trott is challenging Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in the Republican primary.  Bentivolio is a self-proclaimed tea party candidate who is not a friend of the business community.  He did note vote to reopen the government during the shutdown.  Trott has a business background and has created and saved 1,800 jobs in southeast Michigan. Trott has gained the backing of the business community, including the US Chamber of Commerce and our state partner, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce.  He has also recently gained the endorsement of Mitt Romney.  www.trottforcongress.com

David Valadao (R-CA 21): Advanced to general election
Rep. Valadao is a House freshman running for re-election. Valadao is a Republican sitting in a district that President Obama (D) won by 11 points in 2012. Amanda Renteria (D), former Chief of Staff for Senator Stabenow is challenging Valadao. The 21st district is known for its farming and agriculture, especially dairy, and Valadao has a solid background in dairy farming, as a managing partner of Valadao Dairy, which he started with his brothers. A friend to the business community, Valadao has previously been endorsed by BIPAC. The endorsement is supported by virtually all BIPAC members with California operations, as well as the Cal Chamber and California Prosperity Project. www.valadaoforcongress.com

Lee Zeldin (R-NY 1): Advanced to general election
State Senator Lee Zeldin is running in New York's 1st Congressional District against Rep. Tim Bishop (D).  In the primary, he faced and beat self-financing right wing candidate George Demos.  Zeldin has the support of the state and local business community based on his leadership in the State Legislature where he has chaired the committee that deals with most business issues.  In the general election, Zeldin faces Congressman Tim Bishop who scored 13% and 20% on BIPAC's 112th and 111th Voting Records, respectively, and is facing an FBI investigation into influence peddling.  Zeldin has a 90% rating from The Business Council of New York State 2012 Voters' Guide and is a member of the NRCC Young Guns program.  This is a competitive race, in an R+2 district.  Bishop won by 4% in 2012. www.zeldinforcongress.com
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Alabama Works Better When Alabamans Vote

7/14/2014

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Whether you yell Roll Tide or War Eagle, you make sure you attend or watch the game.  That is the message that you need to take into the July 15 Alabama Primary Runoff Election.  Whichever candidate you support, you need to go to the polls.  You need to make your voice heard.

Of the 4.8 million people who live in Alabama, 1.25 million voted for Mitt Romney and 794k voted for President Obama in 2012.  Midterm years receive fewer voters and on this year’s Primary Election Day that is exactly what we observed.  For instance, in Alabama’s 6th Congressional District, State Representative Paul DeMarco and Gary Palmer are now heading into a runoff to succeed retiring Congressman Spencer Bachus.   94k total votes were cast in the district in the June 3 primary while over 302k votes were cast in the 2012 general election.  In terms of impacting the result, an individual voter was over three times more influential in the 2014 primary as in the 2012 general election.  

Runoff elections typically receive even fewer votes, so your influence in participating is even bigger…  

The sixth district is also the most heavily Republican district in the state, so the GOP nominee will almost certainly be the next U.S. Congressman, so your chance to have your voice heard is essentially limited to this Tuesday.  

The law in Alabama is that any registered voter may participate in the Republican runoff regardless of whether they voted in the original primary or not.  

The Business-Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC) works with private sector Alabama employers to engage employees in the political process:  to make sure they are registered to vote, that they have access to accurate and unbiased information about issues and candidates, and that they have the information about polling places so they show up to cast their vote.  

DeMarco is supported by the Alabama business community.  He received a 95% rating by the state’s largest small business coalition.  BIPAC’s Action Fund supported DeMarco.  While we believe DeMarco’s proven record of working to grow the economy and create jobs is compelling, it is our stronger belief that no matter who you support that all Alabamans and all Americans should take part in the election process.  

Alabama employers should never tell their employees how to vote, but the business community can play an important role in educating private sector workers about the political process by sharing our views about candidates and how we feel they would best represent the interests of hard working Alabama job creators and workers.  Private sector employers can also help their employees register to vote, know where the polling places are, and allow their employees to take an extended lunch break to vote, or offer flexibility in the work so they can make it to the polls so their voice could be heard.  Offering an extended lunch break or allowing staff to show up an hour late or leave an hour early could help more people make their voices heard.  

NCAA football may be a spectator sport, but representative government is not.  Alabama employers and employees need to participate to make sure that their voice is heard.

Bo Harmon is the Senior Vice President of Political Affairs for BIPAC.  He was raised in Selma, Alabama.
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BIPAC Action Fund Endorsements: AL, GA Runoffs & Senate Candidates

7/9/2014

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By Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

This week's EIS focuses on the BIPAC Action Fund endorsed candidates.  Four endorsed candidates in Alabama and Georgia are in crucial runoff elections taking place in July.  We are also recapping our list of endorsed Senate candidates to date.  In the following weeks we will focus on our endorsed candidates in the House.  BIPAC has actively worked with our members with operations in the states, with other business organizations and with the business community on the ground in the states, so the endorsed candidates are very much the consensus choice of businesses in the states.  We strongly encourage all of our members to make these candidates a priority. 

Upcoming runoffs: AL, GA

Alabama: July 15

In the 6th district, BIPAC endorsed candidate State Rep. Paul DeMarco is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Spencer Bachus (R).  DeMarco is in a runoff with Gary Palmer, Alabama Policy Institute co-founder.  Palmer has been endorsed by the Club for Growth.  DeMarco has an average rating of 95% from the Alabama NFIB, showing his commitment to the business community.  

Georgia: July 22

There are three runoffs that the business community should get involved in - the Senate race, 1st district and 10th district.  In the Senate, BIPAC endorsed candidate Rep. Jack Kingston (R) faces businessman Dave Perdue.  The winner of the runoff faces Michelle Nunn (D), in what is expected to be a competitive race.  In the 1st district, BIPAC endorsed candidate Buddy Carter (R) is running in Kingston's open seat, against Bob Johnson.  Carter, a businessman, has the support of the local business community and an A+ rating from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce while Johnson is running on tea party principles.  The 10th district has a similar dynamic, with the business community rallying around BIPAC endorsed candidate Mike Collins (R).  Collins has a small business background in the trucking industry and is running against Pastor Jody Hice, another tea party oriented candidate. 

BIPAC Senate Endorsements

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating:  Likely Republican


Rep. Shelley Moore Capito easily won the GOP nomination for the open Senate seat. Capito scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  She faces Democratic nominee Secretary of State Natalie Tennant in the general election.  Polling shows Capito with a double digit lead, making this seat a prime opportunity to move from adverse to business as it was when held by Rockefeller to pro-business as it would be with Capito.  www.capitoforsenate.com

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican


In one of the most competitive GOP primaries this cycle, Sen. Thad Cochran survived a runoff election with state Senator Chris McDaniel.   Senator Cochran scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and has a long history as a champion of free markets and working towards a pro-growth economic climate.  McDaniel was a Tea Party candidate backed by conservative groups such as Club for Growth.  Cochran now faces former Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the general election, but is expected to hold his seat. www.ThadForMississippi.com

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican


Senator Cornyn easily won his primary election back in March.  He faced several primary opponents, including Rep. Steve Stockman.  Cornyn has been a consistent business champion and is being uniformly supported by the business community in Texas and around the country.  Cornyn faces minimal opposition from David Alameel (D) in the general election. www.JohnCornyn.com

Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Leans Republican


Rep. Daines is running against Senator John Walsh (D) in a competitive general election.  Walsh was appointed to the seat in February, after Senator Baucus (D) resigned to become Ambassador to China.  Daines is a pro-business candidate who was been endorsed by BIPAC and the U.S. Chamber in 2012 when running for the at large Congressional seat and has proven to be a strong advocate for the business community during his time in the House.  Daines offers the best chance to make this seat reliably pro-business in its orientation.  www.stevedaines.com

Joni Ernst (R-IA): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


State Senator Joni Ernst earned the GOP nomination with 56% of the vote, avoiding a nominating convention.  She now faces Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in what is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Ernst has earned 100% on the Iowa Prosperity Project's 2011 State Senate voting record and 90% on the 2012 State Senate voting record.  She has consolidated support within Iowa's business community over the last month and has attracted support from across the ideological spectrum.  www.joniforiowa.com

Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


Rep. Cory Gardner is challenging incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D).   Gardner easily won the Republican nomination and has been a friend to the business community in the House.  There are few races featuring a greater contrast between the candidates in terms of their orientation towards supporting pro-growth economic policies.  Gardner scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and is working closely with employers in Colorado to expand their operations and create a more comfortable operating environment.  Polling shows this race to be a toss-up at this point, so your engagement is important.  www.corygardnerforsenate.com

Terri Lynn Land (R-MI): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is running against Rep. Gary Peters (D) for the Michigan open Senate seat. While Michigan went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012, this race is considered a tossup. Polls have the two candidates within 2-5 points from one another. Land has shown impressive fundraising to date and her record as Secretary of State, personal interviews, and history managing a family real estate development company in Michigan has shown her to be a friend of business. She is strongly supported by many of Michigan's leading employers and is the very clear choice of the business community in Michigan. Rep. Peters scored only 8% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record. www.terrilynnland.com

Rep. James Lankford (R-OK): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican


Rep. James Lankford won the Republican nomination for the open Senate special election to replace Sen. Coburn (R) and is now most likely going to be the next Senator from Oklahoma.  The Republican primary was the competitive race, with several candidates running, including state House Speaker T.W. Shannon.  Lankford scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Prosperity Project voting record. www.jameslankford.com

Thom Tillis (R-NC): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


State House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) won the primary election with over 40% of the vote, avoiding a potentially damaging runoff.  Tillis is challenging Senator Kay Hagan (D) in the general.  Tillis was the preferred GOP nominee, due to his consistent record supporting economic growth and job creation in the state legislature. Hagan consistently scores less than 40% on leading business organization legislative scorecards.  This race is currently a toss-up, and a great opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business candidate.  www.ThomTillis.com

Rep. Jack Kingston (R- GA): Runoff election, July 22
BIPAC Rating: Lean Republican


Rep. Jack Kingston in running in the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R).  Kingston is in a runoff with businessman Dave Perdue.  Kingston has a solid business record, scoring an 87% average on BIPAC's Prosperity Project voting records, 85% on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's cumulative voting record and 86% on NAM's 112th Congress voting record.  Whoever advances out of the runoff faces a credible Democratic opponent in Michelle Nunn (D).  This could shape up to be a very competitive race in the general. www.jackkingston.org
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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Primary Election Updates

6/4/2014

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By Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs, BIPAC 

A big day of primaries with several BIPAC endorsed candidates doing well.  As you know, BIPAC endorses only in competitive races where there is broad consensus at the federal, state and local level that one candidate is the strongest advocate for the business community's policy priorities.  Yesterday's results were good news for the business community in those key races where all but one BIPAC endorsed candidate won their primary.

BIPAC Endorsed Candidate Results

Senate:

  • MS-Sen: Thad Cochran: Runoff
  • MT-Sen: Steve Daines: Won Primary
  • IA-Sen: Joni Ernst: Won Primary
House:

  • IA-1: Swati Dandekar: Lost Primary
  • NOTE: CA has an open primary with top 2 candidates, regardless of party, advancing to a general election
  • CA-7: Doug Ose: Advanced to General Election
  • CA-15: Eric Swalwell: Advanced to General Election
  • CA-21: David Valadao: Advanced to General Election
  • CA-33: Ted Lieu: Advanced to General Election
  • CA-52: Carl DeMaio: Advanced to General Election
Taking a look at contested races in each state, the business community will be pleased with the results even beyond the key races in which BIPAC issued an endorsement.  In many cases, business-oriented candidates from both parties prevailed and will move forward in strong position to the general election.

Mississippi

Senate:

In perhaps the most watched race of the day, Senator Thad Cochran and tea-party challenger Chris McDaniel will advance to a run off because neither broke 50% of the primary vote and ended less than 1% away from each other in the final tally.  BIPAC and much of the rest of the business community rallied to support Cochran and will now need to redouble their efforts to reelect him.  The runoff was a completely unexpected scenario as a little known third candidate in the primary ended up with less than 2% of the vote, but it was enough to hold both Cochran and McDaniel under 50%.  The runoff will be held June 24.  The winner will face former Democratic Congressman Travis Childers in the general election.

House:

All Incumbents won their primaries and are not expecting difficult general election challenges.  Of note, in MS-4: Republican Congressman Steven Palazzo held off a primary challenge from former Democratic Congressman Gene Taylor who had represented the district for many years and switched parties to run for his old seat in the primary.  Palazzo won 50-43 with other minor candidates taking the balance.

Iowa

Senate:

BIPAC endorsed candidate Joni Ernst overwhelmingly won the Republican nomination against a crowded field including former Reliant Energy CEO Mark Jacobs and US Attorney Matt Whitaker.   Ernst took over 55% of the vote to Jacobs' 17% and the balance going to the remaining candidates.  Clearing the 35% threshold means Ernst wins the nomination outright without having to go to a state nominating convention, which could have presented great uncertainty to the process.  Ernst will now face Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley in the general election and the race is expected to be one of the most competitive of the cycle. 

House:

Congressmen Dave Loebsack and Steve King both won their primaries easily and do not face strong general election challenges.

IA-1: In the Bruce Braley held open seat, Democratic Pat Murphy won the nomination with 37% of the vote over BIPAC endorsed candidate Swati Dandekar and Cedar Rapids Congresswoman Monica Vernon.  Murphy has served as Speaker of the Iowa legislature for many years and has compiled a disappointingly anti-business record over that time.  He will face Republican Rod Blum in the general election which has the potential of becoming competitive but has been a consistently Democratic district to date.

IA-3: In the Tom Latham open seat, Republicans Brad Zaun and Robert Cramer will advance to a district convention to determination the nomination as no candidate received over 35% of the vote.  The business community in Iowa and the district was very split during the primary with no candidate emerging as the consensus business candidate.  The eventual nominee will face Democratic nominee Staci Appel in what is expected to be one of the most competitive elections of the cycle.

Montana

Senate:

BIPAC endorsed candidate Steve Daines secured the Republican nomination for Senate to take on Democrat John Walsh who was appointed to the seat upon Max Baucus confirmation as Ambassador.  Daines is the current at-large member of Congress and has amassed a strong record of supporting the business community.   Daines has maintained a lead in most polls to date and Republicans consider this one of their most likely pick up opportunities.

House At-Large:

In the open seat for the state's sole Congressional seat, Republican Ryan Zinke will face Democrat John Lewis, a long time staffer to Sen. Baucus in the general election.  The seat is expected to remain in Republican hands and Zinke is expected to have a good working relationship with the business community which split between him and other candidates during the primary.

Alabama

House:

AL-6: In the six person primary to fill retiring Republican Spencer Bachus' seat, Republicans will face a runoff between Paul DeMarco and Gary Palmer. In such a crowded field, the business community split amongst a number of the candidates, but DeMarco has a strong record as a friend of the business community in the state legislature and was supported by BIPAC's deployment partner Manufacture Alabama.  He is expected to be a friend to the business community in Washington in what is the most Republican district in one of the most Republican states in the country. 

California

In California, the top two vote getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election.

House:

CA-7: Rep. Ami Bera (D) and BIPAC endorsed candidate, former Congressman and businessman Doug Ose (R) made it out of with primary, with 47 and 27 percent, respectively.   This is a top race to watch going into the general and a good opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business candidate.

CA-10: Rep. Denham (R), from the 10th district, will face bee farmer Michael Eggman (D) in the general.   This could be a race to watch as the general shapes up, but Denham starts out with an advantage.

CA-11: In the 11th district, Rep. Miller (D) is retiring, and the field quickly cleared for state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier (D).  He advanced to the general, along with Republican Tue Phan though DeSaulnier is the easy favorite to win the general in this heavily Democratic seat.  

CA-15: BIPAC endorsed candidate Eric Swalwell will face Republican Hugh Bussell who edged out a Democrat who was seeking to upset the incumbent, business friendly Democrat.  Swalwell is expected to retain the seat in the general election.

CA-17: Democrats have been dealing with a family feud in the 17th district, with former Obama administration official Ro Khanna (D) challenging sitting Rep. Mike Honda (D).  Both advanced to the general, with Honda winning 49 percent of the vote and Khanna pulling in 26 percent.  This could become a competitive race, but Honda currently has the advantage.

CA-21: Former Congressional aide Amanda Renteria (D) received 24 percent of the vote and will challenge Rep. David Valadao (R) in the general.  Renteria is a top Democratic recruit and this will be a competitive general election race.  Valadao has been a great friend to business and has been endorsed by BIPAC this cycle.

CA-25: The race to replace retiring Rep. McKeon (R) led to a competitive primary between three of the candidates, Lee Rogers (D), Tony Strickland (R) and Steve Knight (R).  Strickland and Knight will advance to the general election, so the seat is assured to remain republican.  The business community is rallying around Strickland, who is now the favorite for the general election.

CA-26: Freshman Rep. Julia Brownley (D) will face off against Assemblyman Jeff Gorell (R) in November.  A member of the U.S. Navy Reserve and a former prosecutor, Gorell is a formidable challenger and could make this race competitive. 

CA-31: The 31st district has been a top target for Democrats, especially once Rep. Miller (R) announced his retirement.  With four Democrats on the ballot and two serious Republican contenders, Democrats were worried that once again, the Democrats' votes would be too split and the two Republicans would make it out of the primary.   The general election will be Republican businessman Paul Chabot against Democrat Pete Aguilar in this Democratic-leaning district.

CA-33: The 33rd district had a whopping 18 candidates running to replacing outgoing Rep. Waxman (D) in this reliably safe Democratic seat.   Former LA Controller Wendy Greuel (D) and BIPAC endorsed candidate, state Sen. Ted Lieu (D) battled it out on the Democratic side while most Republican votes went to Elan Carr.  Lieu and Carr will advance to the general election.  This is an opportunity for the business community to gain a pro-business candidate in the delegation as Lieu is a pro-business Democrat and was the favorite of the business community to emerge amongst the crowded field.

CA-35: State Sen. Norma Torres (D) and Christina Gagnier (D) won the top two spots in the 35th district to succeed Rep. Negrete McLeod (D).  Torres is expected to easily win the general.  

CA-36: In the 36th district, Assemblyman Brian Nestande (R) and Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) formalized their general election.  Nestande is a great business candidate and Ruiz is vulnerable going into the general.  This will be a race to watch. 

CA-45: With Rep. Campbell's (R) retirement, the top two spots went to state Sen. Mimi Walters (R) and Democrat Drew Leavens.  Walters is the favorite to become the next Congresswoman from the 45th district and would be a good friend to the business community. 

CA-52: In the 52nd district, BIPAC endorsed candidate and former member of the San Diego City Council Carl DeMaio (R) became the official challenger to vulnerable Rep. Scott Peters (D).  This will be competitive general election and one the business community should pay attention to.

New Jersey

House:

NJ-3: Rep. Jon Runyan (R) is retiring, setting off a competitive Republican primary and general election.   In the primary, former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur beat former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, a conservative firebrand, 60-40.  MacArthur was leading Lonegan in the polls and is the best bet for Republicans to hold this seat.  Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard (D) won the Democratic nomination with 84 percent of the vote.  

NJ-12: Rush Holt's (D) retirement in this safe Democratic seat led to a four way race in the Democratic primary.  The two frontrunners were state Sen. Linda Greenstein and state Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman.  Coleman won with 43 percent of the vote and is expected to become the next Congresswoman in the Trenton area district.

New Mexico

Senate:

Businessman and former state Republican Chair Allen Weh won the Republican nomination to take on Sen. Tom Udall (D).   The Senate race is not expected to be competitive, and Tom Udall will keep his seat.  

South Dakota

Senate:

The nominees are officially set for the open U.S. Senate seat due to Sen. Johnson's (D) retirement.  Former Gov. Mike Rounds won the Republican nomination, as expected.  Rick Weiland is the Democratic nominee.   South Dakota is one of the Republican's best chance at a pickup in 2014 and Rounds goes into the general election as the favorite.

All other incumbents easily won their primaries and none anticipate difficult general election battles.
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