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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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RealClearPolitic's "Job Growth and Tax Reform"

6/20/2014

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RealClearPolitics
BIPAC attends RealClearPolitics event Job Growth and Tax Reform with Congressmen Dave Camp (R-MI) and Panelists William Gale, Maya MacGuineas, Grover Norquist, and Alan Viard.  It was a great discussion on current and other approaches to tax reform that could strengthen the economy and bring jobs back to the U.S.

The program was hosted in Washington, DC, on June 19, 2014.

Learn more at http://bit.ly/1ssZqLO.

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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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Romney Leads Obama in Delegate Race to Nomination

3/28/2012

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Now that you are done shaking your head at the headline above, let me explain. Mitt Romney (R) has secured 52.8% of the delegates necessary to secure the Republican nomination while President Obama (D) has secured 50.5% of the delegates necessary to secure the Democrat nomination. All this points out is that to secure the nomination under the new rules of the game that it simply takes a lot longer, regardless if you are in a contested battle or an unopposed incumbent, to secure a party nomination for president. While the nomination for the president is clearly a given, the nomination for the Republicans is now a one person delegate count race for Romney.

Rick Santorum (R) scored a decisive victory in Louisiana last Saturday (49% to 27% for Romney), but the race for delegates was hardly effected following the 34th of 56 contests. This near insurmountable delegate lead for Romney is clear in the table below where Santorum needs to win over 70% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination and both Newt Gingrich (R) and Ron Paul (R) need well over 80%.

Estimated GOP delegate count:
March 28 2012
Let’s take a look at some other interesting questions/issues to consider over the next few weeks as we are about to turn the calendar to April:

  • U.S. Senate – Control for the Senate is highly competitive and a major determining factor that will decide this will be the quality of candidates. Over the next few months, key states in this battle (to name a few – Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Florida, Nebraska, Indiana and Maine) will settle their primaries and thus shape the fall contests. Several states will fall (or rise) in the rankings of competitive states based on primary election outcomes.
  • Health Care at SCOTUS – The U.S. Supreme Court hears the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act/“Obamacare” case this week. Will this case alter the outcome of elections in November? No matter the decision, how many people will, after two years of intense media coverage, finally come to their own decision on this issue and then decided that they will support or oppose the president as a result? I would expect a ton of media coverage, a ton of political ads, a ton of fundraising off of the decision, but very few people changing or making up their mind on which candidate(s) to vote for in November.
  • Anti-incumbent year or not? – So far, incumbents are holding on, but clearly the mood of voters is that of someone who has their back against the wall and can quickly decide to toss out an incumbent who is perceived to be part of the “problem.”
  • Turnover – The number of new faces going to Washington in the next Congress is going to be big…again. Of the 33 seats up in the U.S. Senate, 10 are open seats. In the U.S. House, there will be at least 53 new faces next January as a result of retirements, running for other offices and redistricting battles where two incumbents face each other. As we continue to move through candidate filings, primaries and eventually the General Election, these numbers will obviously rise and could easily reach 75 freshmen in the House.
  • Movement of Independent voters – Independent-minded voters are always a big prize in any contested election. Will this critical voting group begin to settle on a candidate now that fall matchups are starting to take shape?
  • Energy/gas price politics – No other price of a product in this country is as well known as the price of gas. None. Gas prices are visible on every other street corner and a change in price often leads to a rush of new media stories. How high (or low) will gas prices be late in the summer, what can/will the President/Congress do about them and how engaged will voters and the energy industry be leading up to the election. With the Vote4Energy campaign, the energy industry has clearly put its chips on the table.
  • Manufacturing – This election is about jobs and that largely means manufacturing jobs. Follow the number of manufacturing jobs in key states like Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina to get a good snapshot of how well incumbents will do at the ballot box in competitive races.
  • VP Choice – People are starting to ask, but I will save this one for a later article.
Where does the GOP race go from here (number of delegates)?

  • April 3 – WI (42), MD (37) and DC (19)
  • April 24 – NY (95), PA (72), CT (28), RI (19) and DE (17)
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A One Candidate Race to 1,144 Delegates

3/22/2012

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Fueled by a set of GOP voters that are a better ideological match and a set of voters that will more closely resemble those needed to win independent voters in swing states, Mitt Romney handily won the Illinois presidential primary contest. Approximately 53% of GOP primary voters in Illinois hail from Chicago, Cook County or the five surrounding counties. This large urban/suburban mix of voters continued to perform well for Romney over Santorum and provided a large enough margin to offset any gains made by Santorum in the more conservative rural and down-state GOP voters.

With 99% of Illinois precincts reporting, Mitt Romney secured 47% of the vote (and an estimated 40 delegates) compared to 35% for Rick Santorum (and 11 delegates), 9% for Ron Paul and in fourth place Newt Gingrich received 8% in the Illinois presidential primary.

The delegate count continues to grow for Romney and at this point he is the only candidate with a realistic chance of mathematically clinching the GOP nomination before the primary season concludes in June. Any objective measuring stick (delegates won, votes, contests won, money raised, organization and outside support) used to compare campaigns favors Romney and has done so for a considerable amount of time.

Estimated GOP delegate count:
March 22 2012
Where does the GOP race go from here (number of delegates)?
  • March 24 – LA (46)
  • April 3 – WI (42), MD (37) and DC (19)
  • April 24 – NY (95), PA (72), CT (28), RI (19) and DE (17)
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The “R” Era is Upon Us: New Political Options? (Part 1)

4/15/2011

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This election cycle is the “R Cycle.”  R, as in Reapportionment, Redistricting, Recall, Referendum and Recount.

When we compile some sort of top ten political stories for the 2011-2012 election cycle, each of these “R’s” will likely occupy several slots on the list.  Reapportionment and the rapidly changing demographics of cities/rural areas/states/regions will have a tremendous impact on policy and elections in the future.  Redistricting comes at a time when voters are more upset with the selfishness and partisanship of elected bodies that will be undertaking the most self-centered act of all in any ten-year period.  The storylines on the referendums and recounts have not played out yet, but there are plenty of early indicators that those subjects will be major stories this cycle too.  That leaves us with the one “R’ I want to focus on right now – recall elections

One of those slots on that top ten political stories list will certainly be Wisconsin and their divisive Supreme Court election from last week and the possible recount that will follow.  The energizing of grassroots networks around the country in key states will have its origins in this election battle and the many impending recall elections fought in Wisconsin as a result of the labor union issue debates at the statehouse.

With the recent and ongoing events in Wisconsin, we very well may be looking at engaging in two simultaneous election cycles.  One that is the traditional two-year cycle that culminates on the first Tuesday following the first Monday in November of the even numbered year.  The second cycle being an ongoing effort to redo the last election or issue fight via recall and referendum elections.

While not exactly new, it appears the use of recall elections (a procedure, usually by signature petition, that allows voters to remove a public official from office prior to serving their full term) is going to be used with increased frequency in an era where elected officials find it more difficult by the day to effectively govern.  While, according to recall election researcher and Wagner College’s Joshua Spivak, recall elections appeared in Colonial America and were debated at the Constitutional Convention in 1787, the first statute was passed at the local level by Los Angeles, CA in 1903 and at the state level by Oregon in 1908.  The Oregon effort was spearheaded by a Progressive originally from Wisconsin, former Populist Party State Representative William S. U’Ren.  U’Ren organized the labor unions, the Farmer’s Alliance, the editor of the Portland Oregonian and others to put the issue before voters as a referendum.

The upcoming Wisconsin Senate recall elections will go down as the biggest recall election in the U.S. since California Governor Grey Davis was recalled/defeated by Arnold Schwarzenegger in October 2003.  While none of them ever resulted in a recall election being held, Schwarzenegger faced seven recall election attempts while governor.  The only other recall of a statewide elected official was in North Dakota in 1921 when the Governor, Attorney General and the Commissioner of Agriculture were all recalled.  Two years later the recalled Governor, Lynn Frazier, was elected to the U.S. Senate.

Millions of dollars, from multiple fronts, was spent on the Wisconsin contest with more to come over the next couple of months as nineteen different campaign committees have filed recall efforts against sixteen different members of the Wisconsin Senate (eight Republican/eight Democratic).  Wisconsin state law does not allow for recall of a Governor until they have served one year and you can bet that next January Governor Scott Walker will be facing a well-funded recall attempt.

With so much volatility in American politics over the last year (Republicans gained control of 22 legislative chambers plus the U.S. House) and continued economic difficulties, the American public and organizations with their backs against the wall are more than willing to explore alternatives to solve problems to passing legislation and putting into office those who will support their viewpoint – or remove those who oppose their cause.  This means recall elections, court challenges, and referendums. Recall and referendum elections have created an unpredictable and never-ending election cycle.  If one side doesn’t like the outcome of an election, fight for a “do over.”  If you don’t like the result in the legislature, go to an issue referendum to go around the legislature or go to court to seek your desired outcome.  This appears to be the new way to play the game and, over time, will likely continue to erode the public’s confidence in the electoral process.

Currently, nineteen states (AK, AZ, CA, CO, GA, ID, IL, KS, LA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NJ, ND, OR, RI, WA, WI) plus the District of Columbia have the ability to remove state officials via a recall process.  Virginia’s recall process results in a recall trail with a circuit court deciding the outcome.  In every other state, a recall election by voters is conducted.  Illinois allows recall elections only for Governor.  While unlikely to be allowed and thrown out by a federal court, New Jersey and Wisconsin law permit the recall of Congressman.  Many other states also have also allowed for the recall of local officials.

Why Wisconsin?  The Wisconsin GOP had arguably the best November and December to close out 2010 of any state party.  In the November Election, they won control back in the State Assembly (House of Representatives), the State Senate, the Governor’s office, two seats in the U.S. House and a U.S. Senate seat.  Following the elections, Wisconsin GOP Chairman Reince Priebus was elected as the Chairman of the Republican National Committee and Rep. Paul Ryan was tapped to be the Chairman of the House Budget Committee.  With all of the electoral success and a contentious legislative session focused on labor issues, Wisconsin became target #1.

Who’s next?  The Wisconsin story will not be a one-and-done story this year.  Efforts are already under way in several states either to gather signatures for recall elections or to allow recall elections.  There are efforts well under way in the battleground state of Ohio, which currently does not have recall elections, for a referendum that would allow for recall elections.  Do you think Ohio Governor John Kasich has called Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker about recall elections?

Find out who is on the recall election clock in part 2.  I will provide an informative map and highlight several other states that should anticipate strong discussion, activity and even a recall election in the near future.

Data from Joshua Spivak, Senior Fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform of Wagner College, National Conference of State Legislatures, and Wikipedia was used to compile this story.
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