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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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BIPAC Action Fund - US House Endorsement Recaps  

7/16/2014

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By Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

Like last week when we reviewed endorsed candidates for US Senate, we urge BIPAC members to support Action Fund endorsed candidate for US House as well.  In each case, candidates met all of the following criteria:

  • Candidate has demonstrated a strong inclination towards working constructively with the business community to grow the economy, create jobs and support private sector growth.
  • The race is highly competitive and support of the business community could be decisive.
  • The candidate has had a personal meeting with a BIPAC Senior Staff person or Board member.
  • There is broad consensus amongst national business organizations, our state partner representing local businesses, BIPAC's Board of Directors and members with operations in the target state or district.
These are all pro-business candidates in races that need and deserve your support to ensure a pro-growth, pro-private sector oriented Congress.  If your PAC and senior leadership has not contributed in these races, we would strongly encourage you to do so.

US House of Representatives
(in alphabetical order)

Don Beyer (D-VA 8): Advanced to general election
Don Beyer won the Democratic nomination for the open seat in this safe Democratic district.   Beyer, former Lieutenant Governor and car dealership owner, faced several candidates in the primary.  He demonstrated a welcomed propensity to working with the business community to solve problems and grow the economy during his time as Lt. Governor.  www.friendsofdonbeyer.com

Mike Bost (R-IL 12): Advanced to general election
State Rep. Mike Bost is running to unseat freshman Rep. Bill Enyart (D).  This is a competitive race with the district being split pretty evenly between Democrat and Republican. Bost has a background in small business, having worked for Bost Trucking, owned by his father and uncle. He has a 79% (2011-2012) and 100% (2009-2008) rating from the Illinois Chamber of Commerce Legislative Ratings. www.bostforcongress.com

Bradley Byrne (R-AL 1): Won special election
Byrne won the special election to replace Rep. Jo Bonner (R) and is now the Congressman from the 1st district. Bradley Byrne (R) is a business attorney and former state legislator and was tasked as CEO of the state's two year college system with reforming the system and restructuring its financial underpinnings.  www.byrneforcongress.com

Buddy Carter (R-GA 1): Runoff election, July 22
State Senator Buddy Carter is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Jack Kingston (R).  Carter is in the runoff with Bob Johnson, a surgeon and Veteran.   Buddy, a pharmacist and businessman, has an A+ legislative rating from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce.  Bob Johnson is running as the tea party oriented candidate, and has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund and the Club for Growth.  Johnson, known to put his foot in his month, recently said "I'd rather see another terrorist attack, truly I would, than to give up my liberty as an American citizen," referring to TSA screenings.  Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement.  Carter was also endorsed by the US Chamber.  www.buddycarterforcongress.com

Mike Coffman (R-CO 6): Advanced to general election
Rep. Mike Coffman faces a competitive general election with Democratic nominee, former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.  This toss up race is a top Democratic target for 2014.  Coffman is a good business ally in the House and scored 95% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  During Romanoff's campaign for US Senate last election, he positioned himself distinctly to the left of current Democratic Senator Michael Bennett and actively opposed many key priorities of the Colorado business community.  This is one of the most competitive districts in the country and one of the clearest distinctions between a pro-jobs, pro-prosperity consensus building candidate in Coffman and a hard left avowed opponent of the business community.  www.coffmanforcongress.com

Mike Collins (R-GA 10): Runoff election, July 22
Mike Collins is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Paul Broun (R).  Mike Collins came in second place in the primary election and faces a runoff with Baptist Pastor and radio talk show host Jody Hice, who garnered 34% of the vote.  Hice, who has been endorsed by the Tea Party Leadership Fund PAC and Citizens United Political Victory Fund, has stated a number of positions opposed by local, state and national business organizations. Hice is also the founder and President of Ten Commandments - Georgia, Inc., which describes itself as a "grassroots organization committed to the task of locating, educating, and motivating citizens to acknowledge God through knowing, obeying, and displaying the Ten Commandments." Collins, a businessman, owns and runs a trucking company and has gained the support of the business community.   Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement. www.overhauldc.com

Barbara Comstock (R-VA 10): Advanced to general election
Delegate Barbara Comstock won GOP nomination in this competitive open seat. Comstock faced conservative firebrand, state Delegate Bob Marshall. Comstock has a 95% rating from the Virginia Chamber 2013 Legislative Scorecard and is gaining broad national and local GOP and business support for her nomination.  In the general, Comstock faces Democratic nominee Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust. The district has a slight Republican edge, and went to Romney by 1 point in 2012 and Obama by 3 points in 2008. Comstock is supported by the National Association of Manufacturers, the US Chamber of Commerce, and many BIPAC members. www.barbaracomstockforcongress.com

Carlos Curbelo (R-FL 26): Primary, August 26
Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo is challenging Rep. Joe Garcia (D) in this toss up race.  While the general election is expected to be highly competitive, Curbelo also has to make it through a GOP primary.  Curbelo is the frontrunner, and has been endorsed by Jeb Bush, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and most of the Miami area business community. www.carloscurbelo.com

Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL 13): Advanced to general election
Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis (R) won the GOP primary and is now in a competitive general election race. He won with less than 1% of the vote in the 2012 general election.  This is a swing district that went to President Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.  Currently serving on the Agriculture and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, Davis has been a consistent business ally.  Davis is also endorsed by the US Chamber and the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and other Illinois business entities encouraged the BIPAC Action Fund's endorsement. www.ElectRodney.com

Carl DeMaio (R-CA 52): Advanced to general election
Carl DeMaio (R), a former city councilman and mayoral candidate, is a formidable challenger to freshman Rep. Scott Peters (D).   The two made it out of California's top two primary and will be competing in November.   DeMaio is gaining the support of the California business community and this race is expected to be extremely competitive.  www.carldemaio.com

Bob Dold (R-IL 10): Advanced to general election
Former Rep. Bob Dold is challenging Rep. Brad Schneider (D).  This is a rematch from the 2012 race where Dold lost to Schneider by less than 3,500 votes. Rep. Dold scored 82% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record while Schneider has not been a friend during his time in Congress.  BIPAC's state partner, the Illinois Chamber of Commerce has also endorsed Dold.  www.doldforcongress.com

Brian Ellis (R-MI 3): Primary, August 5
Businessman Brian Ellis is challenging Tea Party Rep. Justin Amash in the Republican Primary. Amash has not been a friend to the business community, especially for his part in the Tea Party led government shutdown and efforts to default on federal debt. He also opposed a balanced budget amendment and the Keystone XL pipeline. Ellis has a business and financial services background and the backing of the Grand Rapids business community and the Michigan Chamber of Commerce. This race represents the business community taking an important symbolic stand in favor of pro-business candidates when they mount a primary challenge to non-business oriented candidates. www.ellis4congress.com

David Jolly (R-FL 13): Won special election
David Jolly won the competitive open seat to replace former Congressman Bill Young (R).  This swing district voted for a Republican congressman but went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012.  David Jolly (R) ran against former chief financial officer Alex Sink (D).  Jolly, a government affairs professional and former chief counsel to Young, was supported by the local business community and The Florida Chamber of Commerce, BIPAC's state partner, and several of our national association member. www.DavidJolly.com

Ted Lieu (D-CA 33): Advanced to general election
State Senator Ted Lieu is running in the open seat to replace retiring Rep. Waxman. This seat is heavily Democratic and Lieu's candidacy provides an opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business Democrat. Lieu has received the official endorsement of the Democratic Party and a number of business leaders in the district are supporting Lieu. www.tedlieu.com

Alex Mooney (R-WV 2): General election
Former Maryland State Senator Alex Mooney is running in the West Virginia 2nd Congressional District seat being vacated by Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).  The Democratic nominee is Nick Casey, former Chairman of the WV Democratic Party and a major trial attorney in the state.  Mooney has garnered the support of the business community in West Virginia based on his service in Maryland as well as the openly adversarial positions adopted by Casey.  Mooney has consolidated support from a wide array of Republican groups, including the NRCC Young Guns program and the Senate Conservatives Fund. www.mooneyforcongress.com

Doug Ose (R-CA 7): Advanced to general election
Former Congressman Doug Ose (R) is running in the 7th district, challenging Rep. Ami Bera (D). Ose previously served three terms in the House, first elected in 1998. This is one of the most highly competitive general election races in the country. Ose is supported by the California Prosperity Project and the California Business Roundtable as well as several BIPAC members in the district. www.dougose.com

Colin Peterson (D-MN 7): Primary, August 12
Rep. Colin Peterson is running for re-election in a tough race.  A member of the Blue Dog Coalition, he was first elected in 1990 and is currently the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee.  Peterson scored 86% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  www.petersonforcongress.com

Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID 2): Advanced to general election
Mike Simpson is the Republican incumbent running for re-election to his ninth term.  He has been a strong supporter of the business community throughout his tenure in the House.  Rep. Simpson has a perfect BIPAC voting record of 100% and sits on the House Appropriations Committee.  Simpson was challenged in the Republican primary by tea party candidate and attorney Bryan Smith (R), but easily defeated him.   Simpson is safe in the general.  www.simpsonforcongress.com

Eric Swalwell (D-CA 15): Advanced to general election
Freshman Rep. Eric Swalwell is running for re-election.  In 2012, Swalwell defeated incumbent Rep. Pete Stark (D) in the general election.  During his brief tenure in Congress, Swalwell has impressed the business community in California and nationally for his willingness to seek consensus solutions and actively bring all sides together for productive legislation.  Many BIPAC members with operations in the district are strongly supporting Swalwell's reelection.  www.swalwellforcongress.com

Richard Tisei (R-MA 6): Primary, September 9
Former State Senator Richard Tisei is challenging Rep. John Tierney (D) in a rematch of the 2012 race.  The 6th district is Democratic at the Presidential level but was carried by Republicans for Senate and Governor.  Tierney barely won in 2012 and remains vulnerable after past ethics troubles.  Tierney scored 4% on BIPAC's 112th Congress Voting record and is not a business friendly candidate. Tierney also faces a primary challenger, veteran Seth Moulton in a late primary which make this an even better opportunity to replace him with a business-oriented advocate.  www.tiseiforcongress.com

Andy Tobin (R-AZ 1): Primary, August 26
House Speaker Andy Tobin is looking to unseat Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D).  This is a tossup seat that Kirkpatrick lost in her 2010 reelection bid and won back in 2012.  Tobin is a small business owner who has the backing of the local business community, such as the Arizona Restaurant Association. Other Republican candidates include State Rep. Adam Kwasman, and rancher Gary Kiehne.  www.andytobin.com

Dave Trott (R-MI 11): Primary, August 5
Businessman Dave Trott is challenging Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in the Republican primary.  Bentivolio is a self-proclaimed tea party candidate who is not a friend of the business community.  He did note vote to reopen the government during the shutdown.  Trott has a business background and has created and saved 1,800 jobs in southeast Michigan. Trott has gained the backing of the business community, including the US Chamber of Commerce and our state partner, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce.  He has also recently gained the endorsement of Mitt Romney.  www.trottforcongress.com

David Valadao (R-CA 21): Advanced to general election
Rep. Valadao is a House freshman running for re-election. Valadao is a Republican sitting in a district that President Obama (D) won by 11 points in 2012. Amanda Renteria (D), former Chief of Staff for Senator Stabenow is challenging Valadao. The 21st district is known for its farming and agriculture, especially dairy, and Valadao has a solid background in dairy farming, as a managing partner of Valadao Dairy, which he started with his brothers. A friend to the business community, Valadao has previously been endorsed by BIPAC. The endorsement is supported by virtually all BIPAC members with California operations, as well as the Cal Chamber and California Prosperity Project. www.valadaoforcongress.com

Lee Zeldin (R-NY 1): Advanced to general election
State Senator Lee Zeldin is running in New York's 1st Congressional District against Rep. Tim Bishop (D).  In the primary, he faced and beat self-financing right wing candidate George Demos.  Zeldin has the support of the state and local business community based on his leadership in the State Legislature where he has chaired the committee that deals with most business issues.  In the general election, Zeldin faces Congressman Tim Bishop who scored 13% and 20% on BIPAC's 112th and 111th Voting Records, respectively, and is facing an FBI investigation into influence peddling.  Zeldin has a 90% rating from The Business Council of New York State 2012 Voters' Guide and is a member of the NRCC Young Guns program.  This is a competitive race, in an R+2 district.  Bishop won by 4% in 2012. www.zeldinforcongress.com
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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BIPAC Candidate Endorsement Alert

5/29/2014

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After extensive consultation with our state partners, BIPAC members, state, and local employers and business organizations with operations and employees in these states and districts, BIPAC has issued its next round of candidate endorsements in four U.S. Senate and ten U.S. House races.  Each of these candidates are the broad consensus choice of the business community both nationally and at the local level and each are very competitive or highly significant races.  If your organization has not been involved on behalf of these candidates to date, we would urge you to consider these as top priority candidates for the business community.

BIPAC will be working with our membership, local business organizations, and our state partners to educate employees in these states and districts on issues important to creating a pro-growth economic climate, how the candidates stand on those issues, and working to create a powerful business-driven grassroots Get Out The Vote effort in each of these races.

We strongly encourage you to join BIPAC and the local business community in each of these races in supporting these candidates as the clear favorite to provide a pro-growth, prosperity and jobs oriented economic climate.

If you have affiliates or employees in these states or districts and would like to join BIPAC's business-driven employee education and GOTV efforts here, please contact Bo Harmon at 202-776-7462.

U.S. Senate:

Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Colorado)
Primary Election: June 24

Rep. Cory Gardner is challenging incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D).   Gardner has largely cleared the primary field and has been a friend to the business community in the House.  There are few races featuring a greater contrast between the candidates in terms of their orientation towards supporting pro-growth economic policies.  Gardner scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and is working closely with employers in Colorado to expand their operations and create a more comfortable operating environment.  Polling shows this race to be a toss-up at this point, so your engagement is important.  www.corygardnerforsenate.com

Joni Ernst (R-Iowa)
Primary Election: June 3

State Senator Joni Ernst is running in Iowa's open Senate seat.  Ernst is running in a crowded GOP primary and needs to get 35% of the vote in the primary to avoid a convention.  Ernst has earned 100% on the Iowa Prosperity Project's 2011 State Senate voting record and 90% on the 2012 State Senate voting record.  She has consolidated support within Iowa's business community over the last month and has attracted support from across the ideological spectrum.  Both the US Chamber of Commerce AND the Senate Conservatives Fund, typically opposed to each other, are BOTH advertising on her behalf to help avoid a convention selection which would make the candidate selection process completely unpredictable.  She is endorsed for both the primary and general elections.   www.joniforiowa.com

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-West Virginia)
Primary Election: May 13 > See Results

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is running in the open West Virginia Senate seat.  Capito scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  She faces Democratic nominee Secretary of State Natalie Tennant in the general election.  Polling shows Capito with a double digit lead, making this seat a prime opportunity to move from adverse to business as it was when held by Rockefeller to pro-business as it would be with Capito.  www.capitoforsenate.com

Rep. Steve Daines (R-Montana)
Primary Election: June 3

Rep. Daines is running against Senator John Walsh (D).  Walsh was appointed to the seat in February, after Senator Baucus resigned to become Ambassador to China.  Daines is a pro-business candidate who was been endorsed by BIPAC and the U.S. Chamber in 2012 when running for the at large Congressional seat and has proven to be a strong advocate for the business community during his time in the House.  While Baucus was accommodating to some pro-business opportunities, Daines offers the best chance to make this seat reliably pro-business in its orientation.  www.stevedaines.com

U.S. House

Don Beyer (D-Virginia 8)
Primary Election: June 10

Don Beyer is seeking the Democratic nomination for the open seat in this safe Democratic seat.   Beyer, former Lieutenant Governor and car dealership owner, faces several candidates in the primary.  Beyer has won the first straw poll in the district and is considered the frontrunner.  He demonstrated a welcomed propensity to working with the business community to solve problems and grow the economy during his time as Lt. Governor. With the primary quickly approaching, getting involved with the Beyer campaign during the primary is important.  www.friendsofdonbeyer.com

Carlos Curbelo (R-Florida 26)
Primary Election: August 26

Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo is challenging Rep. Joe Garcia (D) in this toss up race.  While the general election is expected to be highly competitive, Curbelo also has to make it through a GOP primary featuring former member of Congress David Rivera who lost the seat to Garcia in 2012 following a campaign finance scandal very similar to the one Garcia now faces himself.  Curbelo is the frontrunner, and has been endorsed by Jeb Bush, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and most of the Miami area business community. www.carloscurbelo.com

Bob Dold (R-Illinois 10)
Primary Election: March 18 > See Results

Former Rep. Bob Dold is challenging Rep. Brad Schneider (D).  This is a rematch from the 2012 race where Dold lost to Schneider by less than 3,500 votes. Rep. Dold scored 82% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record while Schneider has not been a friend during his time in Congress.  BIPAC's state partner, the Illinois Chamber of Commerce has also endorsed Dold and is working with BIPAC and local businesses in the district to support his return to Congress.  www.doldforcongress.com

Mike Coffman (R-Colorado 6)
Primary Election: June 24

Rep. Mike Coffman faces a competitive general election with likely Democratic nominee former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.  This toss up race is a top Democratic target for 2014.  Coffman is a good business ally in the House and scored 95% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  During Romanoff's campaign for U.S. Senate last election, he positioned himself distinctly to the left of current Democratic Senator Michael Bennett and actively opposed many key priorities of the Colorado business community.  This is one of the most competitive districts in the country and one of the clearest distinctions between a pro-jobs, pro-prosperity consensus building candidate in Coffman and a hard left avowed opponent of the business community.  www.coffmanforcongress.com

Andy Tobin (R-Arizona 1)
Primary Election: August 26

House Speaker Andy Tobin is looking to unseat Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D).  This is a tossup seat that Kirkpatrick lost in her 2010 reelection bid and won back in 2012.  Tobin is a small business owner who has the backing of the local business community, such as the Arizona Restaurant Association. Other Republican candidates include State Rep. Adam Kwasman, and rancher Gary Kiehne.   www.andytobin.com

Swati Dandekar (D-Iowa 1)
Primary Election: June 3

Former state legislator Swati Dandekar is running in Rep. Braley's open seat in Iowa 1.  This is a safe Democratic seat and the competitive race will be in the Democratic primary.  Dandekar has a good working relationship with the business community in Iowa and has been endorsed by John Deere and Rockwell International, two major employers in IA 1.  Another leading candidate in the primary is State House Speaker Pat Murphy who has a long legislative record of actively opposing the business community and pro-growth policies.  Should Murphy win, he would be very adversarial.  www.swatidandekarforcongress.com

Richard Tisei (R-Massachusetts 6)
Primary Election: September 9

Former State Senator Richard Tisei is challenging Rep. John Tierney (D) in a rematch of the 2012 race.  The 6th district is Democratic at the Presidential level but was carried by Republicans for Senate and Governor.  Tierney barely won in 2012 and remains vulnerable after past ethics troubles.  Tierney scored 4% on BIPAC's 112th Congress Voting record and is not a business friendly candidate. Tierney also faces a primary challenger, veteran Seth Moulton in a late primary which make this an even better opportunity to replace him with a business-oriented advocate.  www.tiseiforcongress.com

Eric Swalwell (D-California 15)
Primary Election: June 3

Freshman Rep. Eric Swalwell is running for re-election.  In 2012, Swalwell defeated incumbent Rep. Pete Stark (D) in the general election.  During his brief tenure in Congress, Swalwell has impressed the business community in California and nationally for his willingness to seek consensus solutions and actively bring all sides together for productive legislation.  Many BIPAC members with operations in the district are strongly supporting Swalwell's reelection who faces a Republican and Democrat in the June open primary.  www.swalwellforcongress.com

Mike Bost (R-Illinois 12)
Primary Election: March 18 > See Results

State Rep. Mike Bost is running to unseat freshman Rep. Bill Enyart (D).  This is a competitive race with the district being split pretty evenly between Democrat and Republican. Bost has a background in small business, having worked for Bost Trucking, owned by his father and uncle. He has a 79% (2011-2012) and 100% (2009-2008) rating from the Illinois Chamber of Commerce Legislative Ratings. www.bostforcongress.com

Colin Peterson (D-Minnesota 7)
Primary Election: August 12

Rep. Colin Peterson is running for re-election in a tough race.  A member of the Blue Dog Coalition, he was first elected in 1990 and is currently the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee.  Peterson scored 86% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  www.petersonforcongress.com

NOTE: BIPAC will continue to endorse candidates as consensus emerges in primary and general elections amongst its members and the local business community in favor of particular candidates.
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2014 Most Vulnerable Governors

9/3/2013

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Stakes in the States Series

There are 36 states with governor’s races in 2014. The current party breakdown for governorships is 30 Republican and 20 Democratic. There are currently six open seats in AR, AZ, NE, MD, MA and TX meaning there are 30 governors running for re-election. Despite Republicans having a ten seat advantage, several current Republican governors won election in the Tea Party wave of 2010 and nine Republican governors are up in states that Obama won in 2012. As such, Republican governors are now running for re-election in states that are far more moderate than they’ve governed, leaving them more vulnerable than their Democratic counterparts. Below is a list of the top four most vulnerable Republicans and top four most vulnerable Democrats running for re-election in 2014. We’ve provided an overview as to why they are at risk and listed the most recent race ratings from several top political analysts as well as those from BIPAC.

Top Four Vulnerable Republicans

Gov. Rick Snyder (MI)
BIPAC: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Leans Republican
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -8

Snyder’s approval ratings dropped drastically after signing Michigan’s “right-to-work” law last December. While it has improved in the past few months, it has not fully recovered. His recent decisions regarding Detroit’s bankruptcy have helped him with approval ratings, but his support for expanding Medicaid is now costing him with Republicans. This is a state that Obama won in 2008 and 2012.

Gov. Paul LePage (ME) BIPAC: Toss Up/Lean D Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Dem/Indy; changed from Toss Up on 8/8/13 538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -12   LePage has faced attacks from both sides of the aisle during his time in office, most recently with his own party over Maine’s budget, supporting a government shutdown over the legislature’s bipartisan agreement. The potential three-way race shaping up could help him again if he runs in 2014, just as it did in 2010.

Gov. Rick Scott (FL)
BIPAC: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -20

Rick Scott, one of the more vulnerable governors in the country, could see a primary challenge from his own party. His approval ratings have been improving a bit recently, with Florida’s economy regaining some strength and his reversal to support Medicaid expansion in Florida (though he was unable to win legislative support for it).

Gov. Tom Corbett (PA)
BIPAC: Toss Up/Lean D
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Toss Up
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -14

Corbett has a lot working against him for 2014. He has yet to get his “big three” campaign promises passed, including transportation funding, liquor privatization and public employee pension reform. Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is also often above that of the national average, and Corbett has been highly criticized for his handling of the Penn State scandal when he was attorney general.

Top Four Vulnerable Democrats

Gov. Dan Malloy (CT)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Leans Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval +6

Malloy faced a large drop in approval ratings when he signed the largest tax hike in Connecticut’s history, during his first year as governor. Connecticut has also been ranked the worst state for economic growth the past two years. Malloy has gained some popularity of late, due to his support of gun control legislation in the state. This may not however, be enough to offset the lack of support for his economic policies.

Gov. Lincoln Chafee (RI)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Likely Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -40

Chafee’s biggest problem for re-election is Rhode Island’s economy. For July 2013, it was ranked third in the nation, with an unemployment rate of 8.9 and was rated the second worst state for business by CNBC in 2013. Chafee has recently switched parties, from Independent to Democrat, which could help his chances at winning re-election.

Gov. Pat Quinn (IL) 
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Likely Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -24

Quinn’s approval ratings are so low it is very possible he will face a primary challenger, which is where he will be most vulnerable in the deep blue state. Like several of the governors on this list, Quinn’s unpopularity has a lot to do with the economy. Illinois has faced major budget problems under Quinn, including a $100 billion pension crisis; the worst faced by any US state. Quinn has halted payments for state lawmakers until they pass pension reform and is now being sued by members of his own party for the pay freeze.

Gov. Hickenlooper (CO)
BIPAC: Likely D
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Solid D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Safe Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval +33

Hickenlooper could be potentially vulnerable for two main noneconomic reasons- his recent stances on the death penalty and gun control legislation. A Quinnipiac survey found that his handling on both issues, granting temporary reprieve to a man on death row, and supporting gun control legislation, went against public opinion in Colorado. Whether or not these will be enough to make Hickenlooper a one term governor has yet to be seen.

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Stakes in the States: Recall Elections

8/12/2013

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What is a recall election? It is a procedure that allows citizens to remove and replace an elected official before the end of their term. Recalls can be used to rid the office of a corrupt or incompetent leader, for partisan politics, or removing officials for a policy position. It is estimated that a majority, three-fourths, of recall elections are at city council or school board level, though there have been increasing instances of recalls at the state level. Nineteen states (AK, AZ, CA, CO, GA, ID, IL, KS, LA, MI, MN, MT, NV, NJ, ND, OR, RI, WA and WI) and the District of Columbia currently allow recalls of state officials. In the past three years, several states have seen state elected officials face recalls, including WI, AZ, MI and currently, CO.

State Level Recalls since 2010 (according to National Conference of State Legislatures)

  • 2011 Wisconsin: Nine state senators faced recall elections regarding the budget bill proposed by Governor Walker (R). Sens. Robert Cowles (R), Alberta Darling (R), Dave Hansen (D), Sheila Harsdorf (R), Jim Holperin (D), Luther Olsen (R) and Robert Wirch (D) survived recall attempts. Senators Randy Hopper (R) and Dan Kapanke (R) were recalled.
  • 2011 Arizona: Senate President Russell Pearce (R) was recalled over his sponsorship of AZ’s immigration law.
  • 2011 Michigan: State Representative Paul Scott (R) was recalled for supporting Gov. Snyder’s budget and angering teachers unions.
  • 2012 Wisconsin: Gov. Walker and four state senators faced recalls over collective bargaining issues. Gov. Scott Walker, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) and Senator Terry Moulton (R) survived recall attempts. Senator Van Wanggaard (R) was recalled. Senator Pam Galloway (R) resigned before her recall election, a recall was still held for her seat.
  • 2013 Colorado: State Senate President John Morse (D) and Senator Angela Giron (D) face recall elections on September 10 for their support of gun control legislation.
In the first ever recall elections of state lawmakers in Colorado, two Democratic senators in Colorado are facing recalls due to their vote on stricter gun control measures, State Senate President John Morse of El Paso County and Senator Angela Giron of Pueblo County. After the Secretary of State deemed there were enough signatures for a recall, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) set the recall election date for September 10, 2013.

The gun control bills causing such uproar in CO, passed in the 2013 legislative session by the Democratically-controlled CO state legislature, were the first such bills passed in over ten years. This is a hot topic issue in a state that is well known for the Columbine High School and Aurora shootings, but is also known for its bipartisan passion of hunting and sport shooting.

A group behind the recall, the Basic Freedom Defense Fund (501 (c)(4) non-profit), was set up in February in response to the passed gun legislation. The founding members say the main issue is about legislators not listening to their constituents. Originally, four Democrats were targeted to be recalled, including Sen. Evie Hudak (D) of Westminster and Rep. Mike McLachlan (D) of Durango but only the recall attempts for Sens. Morse and Giron gained enough signatures. Former Colorado Springs City Councilman Bernie Herpin (R) is challenging Morse and former police officer Georgia Rivera (R) of Pueblo is challenging Giron.

Money has been pouring into the elections, with Giron and Morse raising nearly a quarter million dollars, and receiving thousands of dollars from Colorado liberal groups. Recall supporters have been sending their funds to the Basic Freedom Defense, and the NRA has helped with mailers and phone banks. According to El Paso and Pueblo county clerks, the elections will cost somewhere between $150,000 and $200,000.

Even if the recall attempts are successful, Democrats will still hold the majority in the Senate, 18-17. However, supporters of the recall still hope this will send messages to legislators in CO and across the country.

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