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Crystal Ball, Crystal Ball, Show Me November 5

10/29/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

With the midterm election less than a week away on November 4, there is more uncertainty of what the Senate results will be than in any recent election. While every election night holds surprises (remember Eric Cantor?), next Tuesday night we may be in store for several surprises and upsets.

The races that are most competitive with a week to go are the Republican held seats in Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia and the Democrat held seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado and Alaska.

So, let's rub the crystal ball and see what emerges....

A couple of assumptions: First, let's assume Republicans win South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia, giving them three pickups.  Republicans have held consistent double digit leads in all three seats for months.  Also, we can safely assume that Louisiana will go to a run off on December 6th and in that scenario is considered a toss-up.  

With KY, KS and GA in the air, but MT, SD and WV likely additions, Republicans start with a 45 seat foundation.

With MI, LA, NC, NH, CO, AR, AK, and IA in the air, Democrats start with a foundation of 44 seats.
Republicans need to get to 51 for a majority because at 50-50, Vice President Joe Biden is the tie-breaker on behalf of Democrats.

Polling averages in many of these races have been fairly consistent for the last month, indicating that the races have settled a bit.  While all are very close (within the margin of error in most cases) the stability of the leader hasn't shifted in over a month in many of these.  

Republicans have held a consistent lead in Kentucky, Arkansas, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado.  

Democrats have held steady leads in North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire.  

The three wild cards are Kansas, Georgia and Louisiana.  Louisiana, as we have said, is likely to go to a runoff which will be held December 6.  Increasingly, a runoff is also the most likely scenario in Georgia, but this one held January 6.  Kansas is the other real toss up and is complicated by the fact that Republican Pat Roberts isn't running against a Democrat, he's running against an Independent, Greg Orman, who hasn't said if he would caucus with Republicans or Democrats, but has hinted that he will work with whoever is in the majority. (Just to make it more fun, remember that Maine Independent Angus King has ALSO said he reserves the right to switch and caucus with Republicans if they take the majority).

If current polling trends hold steady for another week and predict who will win each state (a BIG "if"), then Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC.   KS and GA are both tied.  That puts Republicans at 50 seats with three in the air.  In a 50-50 tie, Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed.  
So, understanding that there will be at least one and probably two races outstanding, and possibly two Senators who could caucus with either party, what are the various scenarios and how likely are we to see each on the morning of November 5th?

Democrats Hold the Senate:
Democrats holding the Senate is the least likely scenario.  It would mean that Republicans won no more than two of the following: MI, NH, NC, CO, AR, AK, IA and/or lost seats in Georgia or Kentucky (or Orman wins Kansas and immediately announces as a Democrat).  Given the consistent polling advantage Republican candidates enjoy a week before the election, this is an unlikely scenario. 

Likelihood: 15%

Republicans Win the Senate:
For Republicans to know on November 5th that they will be in the majority in the Senate in the next Congress is more likely than Democrats knowing that THEY will be in the majority, but still not certain.  For this to happen, with Louisiana still out, would mean that Republicans won three or more of the races listed above AND swept GA, KY and KS.  With Republicans leading in polls in AR, CO, IA and AK, the first part of that equation is possible, but the second part is deicer.  A possible scenario is Roberts wins Kansas, GA and LA go to runoffs.  In this case, Republicans would have 51 and be in the majority regardless of the outcome of Georgia or Louisiana runoffs. 

Likelihood: 40%

Majority Control is Unclear:
An equally likely scenario is that we still won't know who will control the Senate on the morning after the election.  If current polling holds through Election Day, Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC.   KS and GA are both tied and LA is already headed to a runoff.  That puts Republicans at 50 seats and Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed. 

Likelihood: 45%

The permutations of which party Orman (and King) would caucus with, the results of runoffs, if any state switches from one side to the other in current polling (remember that ALL of these races are still within the margin of error) then we are in for an unpredictable Election Night where anything is possible the next morning.  

The one thing you CAN count on is receiving the latest updates and analysis from BIPAC so your members and employees will have the most updated information possible.
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Online Influence of the Action Fund's Latest Endorsements

10/22/2014

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by Jason Langsner, Director of New Media and Communications

Last week the BIPAC Action Fund released its final set of candidate endorsements for 2014 (see below).  To follow-up from those endorsements, the following Election Insights looks quantitatively at each endorsed candidate's race and provides a summary of how they are engaging with potential voters across social media as-compared-to the other party's candidate.

Candidates' social voices ranged from the high 40s to low 60s as defined by the Klout.com scale of influence, which goes up to 100.  As points of comparison, Speaker of the House John Boehner's official channel (@johnboehner) has a score of 87 and President Obama's official channel (@barackobama) has a score of 99.

The range of those that like the candidates' pages on Facebook and follow them on Twitter ranges from a few hundred to an outlier of 128k.  Some candidates are thus investing more in social and new media with their paid advertising strategy than others who are relying on organic growth and a content strategy that isn't promoted by ads.  Counting followers though doesn't provide a true metric of how engaged the candidates are with their desired audience of potential voters.  Klout is a bit better, but a true metric is to look at the sentiment of what is being said about the candidates.  For instance in the Alaska Senate race, those sharing on social media about Dan Sullivan are posting at a 4:1 positive-to-negative ration; as-compared-to a 1:1 ratio for Begich (source:  SocialMention.com).

Listening to the campaigns on social media helps to guide our strategy, but what impacts the strategy and makes a difference is the work being done on the ground by our members and partners.  BIPAC itself has assets on the ground across the U.S. in key election states of importance to our private sector community.  What we are seeing throughout the country in our grassroots political training workshops will provide the impact.

A Twitter channel cannot vote but the individual behind the online identity can - and BIPAC, plus our members and partners, want to make sure that private sector employees are registered and educated about the issues of importance to their job, company, and industry.

Employees Vote (and tweet) in 2014.

BIPAC Action Fund Final Endorsed Candidates' Online Voice
BIPAC Action Fund Final Endorsed Candidates' Online Voice
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Less Than Two Weeks To Go and ANYTHING Could Happen

10/22/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

There are 10 U.S. Senate races that are toss-ups with the candidates within five points of each other and no candidate polling over 50%.
  • Approval ratings for both parties are at historic lows.
  • Confidence in Congress to solve even minor problems is at a historic low.
  • There has been more money spent on midterm elections than ever before.  By a lot.
  • Voter enthusiasm and engagement is significantly lower than 2006 or 2010 midterms.
  • That is a recipe for unpredictability.
There are two really remarkable things about this mid-term Senate election.  The first is the sheer number of highly competitive Senate races.  The second is just how close so many of them remain with less than two weeks before Election Day.

In recent weeks, polling has tightened in two races that had been considered likely to go Republican - South Dakota and Georgia.  Other races that had already been considered competitive are seeming even more so in the closing weeks.  

In a typical election cycle, there are four or five Senate races that are considered highly competitive.  This year, there are 10.  Two held by Republicans and eight held by Democrats.  Two additional Democratic held seats in Montana and West Virginia are likely to switch to Republican control.  If that happens, Republicans would need to net four additional seats to take control of the Senate.  

If Republicans lose either Georgia or Kansas, currently held by Republicans, it makes it very difficult for them to win a majority in the Senate.  The seats that have long been considered competitive, currently held by Democrats all remain so.  Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Dakota are states all carried by Mitt Romney in 2012 with Democratic incumbents and have been top Republican targets for over a year.  Other Democratic held seats that could go either way include Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire.  

Polling averages in ALL of these races have less than a five point difference between the top candidates and none have a candidate breaking 50%.  With less than two weeks to go, that is truly unprecedented.  

In a political environment where both parties' approval ratings and public confidence in the ability of Congress to solve even minor problems has dwindled to record low levels, there is such broad dissatisfaction with Washington and politics, it makes for a very volatile electorate.  Polling results are increasingly unreliable and even more so in an unpredictable, low turnout, mid-term election.  The result is less clarity about what may happen on Election Day than at any time in recent history.
We have seen some unexpected results already, most notably the surprise loss of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in his primary.  More such surprises are likely in store for November 4.

With voter enthusiasm at such low levels and so many races that could go either way, engaging and mobilizing your workforce is more important than ever and allows your voice to be magnified so much more in determining the result of these elections.  In the closing days of one of the wildest and most unpredictable elections cycles in a long time, your leadership in employee engagement is critical.
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Senate Outlook - One Month Out

10/8/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

We are now 27 days out from the election and into the final stretch.  Below is BIPAC's Senate Rankings for 2014, and today's EIS will focus on the current trajectory of the competitive races, including the Lean Republican, Toss Up and Lean Democrat.

Senate Outlook - One Month Out
Overview

Typically races move on or off the competitive playing field as the election cycle progresses, but this cycle has remained remarkably steady with the races that were thought to be competitive a year out still being the ones that are competitive less than a month out and with very few new races creeping into the competitive category.  All of the races outlined below are still considered highly competitive, but some are beginning to drift one way or another and are designated as "lean" towards one party or the other.

Lean Republican

AR:  Sen. Mark Pryor (D) has been on the list of most vulnerable Democrats for a while now, and not much is changing.  Pryor is relatively well liked and his family has been involved in Arkansas politics for years, but Arkansas is a solidly red state now at the federal level.  Romney won by 24 points in 2012 and Pyror is the only Democrat left in the federal delegation.  Most polls have Rep.  Tom Cotton (R) leading the race by an average four points, with Pryor stuck around 40% - bad numbers for an incumbent.

GA:  Democrats fielded an impressive candidate in Michelle Nunn (D), who has given Republicans a competitive race in Georgia.  However, now that the Republican primary is over and David Perdue (R) has coalesced the Republican base, he is starting to pull away in the polls and currently leads by about three points.  While Perdue is leading, both candidates are still under 50%, and if neither get a majority of the vote, this race will go into a runoff on January 6th.  Runoffs tend to favor Republicans, especially in a midterm election year, and depending how the other races flesh out on Election Day, this could be the race that decides the control of the Senate.

KY:  Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) has been an impressive candidate, but Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) has double downed and with Pres. Obama's dismal approval ratings in this coal state, the race is looking less and less competitive as we head into October.  Currently, McConnell leads on average by about five points, with his lead widening in the past few weeks.  This is still a competitive race, but McConnell has the advantage in the home stretch.

LA:  Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) continues to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle.  With no candidate in this race polling above 50%, it is likely the race will be decided in a runoff on December 6th.  If Democrats hold the Senate, Landrieu will become Chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which Democrats hoped would give her an edge in this race.  Cassidy however has run a good campaign and President Obama's approval rating in Louisiana is underwater.  Control of the Senate may come down to the LA runoff, and in the runoff polling, Cassidy leads by about six points.   

Toss Up

AK:  Sen. Mark Begich (D) is faring better than some of his colleagues this cycle, but still faces an extremely competitive race against former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan.  Polling in Alaska has been all over the place the past few months, with Begich and Sullivan both leading at one point or another.  With a very late Republican primary over, Sullivan has begun his general election campaigning in full and is leading the polls by 3-6 points.  However, polling in Alaska is notoriously difficult. This could go either way at this point.

CO:  This is a tossup race that no one had on their radar a year ago, with Rep. Gory Gardner (R) entering the race in March.  Since Gardner entered, polls showed him statistically tied with Sen. Mark Udall (D) and that has continued throughout the summer and into the final stretch.  Pres. Obama won Colorado in 2012 by five points, but his approval ratings continue to drop, hurting Udall's chances.  Gov. Hickenlooper (D) also faces a competitive election this cycle, which could further hurt Udall's reelection campaign. Expect this race to stay a tossup until the election.

IA:  Since Joni Ernst (R) won the GOP nomination in June, this race has been a tossup.  Democratic nominee Rep. Bruce Braley (D) has had trouble connecting with voters and like most other Democrats running this cycle, has had to distance himself from Pres. Obama's negative approval numbers in the state.   He also does not have the advantage of incumbency, like several of the other Democratic candidates this cycle.  Ernst has run a strong campaign and Republicans are hopeful that having popular Gov. Branstad (R) on the ticket as well will help her chances. Ernst currently leads Braley by an average of two points - still within the margin of error.

KS:  Kansas has become the wild card race this election cycle.  Sen. Pat Roberts (R) faces a surprisingly competitive general election after being damaged in the primary.  The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, had little name ID or funds for the general election.  He has been removed from the ballot, presenting a clear path for a challenge to Roberts by Independent candidate Greg Orman.  Orman has affiliated with each party over the years and describes himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate.  He has not indicated which party he would caucus with if elected.  On average, Orman is leading Roberts in the polls by five points though Roberts and outside groups have just begun attacking Orman who had been running months of positive ads, so the race is expected to tighten as the attacks sink in with voters. Further complicating Roberts' reelection chances is Gov. Sam Brownback (R), who is also up for re-election this cycle and is losing support from the more moderate wing of the Republican Party in Kansas.  This Senate race is currently a tossup and Roberts has become the most vulnerable Republican Senator this cycle.

Lean Democrat

MI:  For the past few months, Rep. Gary Peters (D) has been leading in the polls against former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R).  Michigan went for Pres. Obama in 2012 and is the only state Pres. Obama is visiting with a Senate race this fall, showing his national brand is not as damaged in Michigan as it is in other Senate states.  Peters is up by an average of seven points and this seat is leaning in his favor.

NH:  Carpet bagging attacks against former MA Senator Scott Brown (R) don't appear to be sticking and this race is getting closer and closer as we approach November. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) had a double digit lead in the summer, but now only leads by an average of five points.  While NH is currently in the lean D column, it could soon be moved to toss up, if the poll numbers continue to tighten.  Shaheen is well liked in the state, but Pres. Obama is underwater in NH and Brown is campaigning heavily on foreign policy, nationalizing the race.  New Hampshire, more than any other state, has a tendency to sway with the political winds, going heavily Democratic in strong Democratic years and strongly Republican in good GOP years.  If anyone could survive those powerful electoral winds, it would be Shaheen but the state's electoral tendencies run deep with the voters here.

NC:  Once of the more vulnerable Senators running for re-election, Kay Hagan (D) has started to pull away from state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in the polls, and if this trend continues, will be favored for re-election.  Tillis, coming from an unpopular legislative session, has been dropping in the polls, and his favorability ratings are less than Hagan, with only 36% of voters having a favorable view, compared to Hagan's 42%.  The North Carolina race has turned into a lesser of two evils race, with Hagan currently in the lead.
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House Races You May Not Be Watching, But Should

10/1/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

While Republicans are expected to expand their majority in the House due to a significantly higher number of Democrats facing competitive races and the Republican lean of the election cycle, there are always a few surprises on election night.  Below are a few of the races that haven't topped most political radars, but are proving to be some of the most interesting contests in the country.

ME-2
Rep. Mike Michaud's (D) open seat features one of the most interesting political dynamics in the country for the business community.  Maine has a history of centrist consensus builders like Rep. Mike Michaud, former Sen. Olympia Snowe (R), Sen. Angus King (I), Sen. Susan Collins (R) and former Sen. Bill Cohen (R).  The Democrat nominee, 35 year old State Senator Emily Cain, seems cut from a similar cloth and has a reputation of open-door, consensus building in the state legislature admired even by her political opponents.  Her voting record however is reliably progressive and pro-labor.   Bruce Poliquin, who beat an Olympia Snowe protégé in the primary with a tea-party oriented message on taxes and spending, is the Republican nominee who would likely be a reliable business vote.  The district tilts slightly Democratic but as an open seat, it is very much a toss-up.  The candidates involved leave the business community in a quandary: a Democrat who won't vote with you as frequently but can help build consensus to get things working better in Washington versus a more reliable vote.

CA-3
Democrat incumbent John Garamendi is facing Republican State Senator Dan Logue.  Garamendi is a reliable vote for home state colleague Nancy Pelosi (D) and scored just 4% on BIPAC's Outline for Prosperity vote guide.  Logue meanwhile has a perfect record with both NFIB and the CalChamber but more interesting is Logue's approach to public service.  A good government reformer and consensus builder at heart, Logue does things like assembling a bi-partisan team to hold meetings with CEOs who have taken their businesses out of California and asking what, specifically, it would take for them to return to the state.  He has used his position to force local governments to be more transparent in contracting which saved millions of tax dollars and created an even playing field for all.   Garamendi won in 2012 with less than 55% of the vote and Logue's Assembly district is almost wholly within the Congressional district.  While it is a Democrat leaning seat, with an off-year electorate, an incumbent who is to the left of the voters and a reform oriented Republican with a record of bi-partisanship, CA-3 is a ripe opportunity for a surprise on election night.

IA-1
Rep. Bruce Braley (D) will need a big turnout in his home district to win his Senate race in what is considered the most heavily Democratic district in the state at D+5 and having voted for Pres. Obama with 56% of the vote in 2012.  Dynamics on the ground however are making this one of the most interesting races in the country to watch.  Democrat Speaker of the House Pat Murphy has a long, very adversarial relationship with the business community in Iowa and beat two other much more centrist Democrats to win the nomination.  First time candidate Republican Rod Blum conversely was named Entrepreneur of the Year in Iowa for growing his software company from 5 employees to 325.   In this rural district, NFIB and the NRA are brand names that Democrats have always worked hard to court and both have endorsed Blum this year.  An early September poll showed a two point race - closer than the open 3rd district seat which had been considered to be much more competitive.  Blum has surprised many with his adept campaign ability and slow and steady work to win over voters.  With Murphy so far to the left of the district and a popular Governor Branstad (R) driving turnout at the top of the ticket, Iowa's first district could be at the top of the list of races with a surprising result.

AR-2
In the race to fill the open seat of Rep. Tim Griffin (R), the business community quickly rallied around Republican banker French Hill and Democrats chose North Little Rock Mayor Patrick Henry Hays (who has one of the best candidate names of the cycle).  On the surface, it seemed a safe bet to hold the seat for Republicans, but it has become one of the sleeper races the Democrats hope to pick off.  It is Arkansas' most Democratic district and voted for Obama by 8 points more than any other Congressional District in the state.  Senator Mark Pryor will be pushing a big Democratic turnout in Hays' Little Rock backyard if he is going to have a chance at reelection and Hays has focused like a laser on job creation, running some of the most effective TV ads of the cycle.   Observers in the state still give an edge to Hill, but Hays has proven to be a much more formidable candidate than anticipated and Hill's patrician demeanor in the most Democratic leaning district in the state COULD result in a surprise Democratic pickup in the deep south.

NY-11
You would think a Republican in a district carried by Barack Obama who was caught on camera threatening to kill a news reporter and being under FBI indictment would pretty much end his chances at reelection.  If so, you aren't familiar with the political dynamics on Staten Island and Rep. Michael Grimm.  Staten Island has always felt itself different and separate from New York, even voting to secede as recently as 1993.  They are the picked on little brother who gets little but scorn from the rest of the cosmopolitan world capital. Michael Grimm is one of them. On a visceral level, he understands and relates to them - and vice versa.  The district also has a couple of precincts in Brooklyn, which may as well be in Connecticut for the impact they have on the thinking of the district.  It is from one of these precincts that Democrat Councilman Domenic Recchia hails.  Staten Island has the highest percentage of Italian ancestry in the country according to the Almanac of American Politics. Grimm and Recchia both have Italian heritage, but Grimm's Staten Island roots and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio's (D) unpopularity in the district may show that Grimm, despite the politics of the district, despite federal indictments, despite threats to reporters, has a real chance to hold his seat.  If he does, it will be one of the most remarkable results of the election.

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Primary Recap & BIPAC Action Fund Endorsements 

9/10/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Political Affairs

Senate:

NH: Former MA Senator Scott Brown won the Republican nomination with 50% of the vote.  He is challenging Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in November.

House:
 
MA-06: Rep. John Tierney was defeated by Iraq War veteran and political newcomer Seth Moulton in Tuesday's primary. Moulton received 51% of the vote, Tierney, 40%.  Scandal plagued Tierney, who faced his most competitive primary yet, barely won his 2012 re-election, winning by one point when President Obama carried the district by 11.  Moulton now faces 2012 Republican nominee and BIPAC Action Fund endorsed former state Sen. Richard Tisei (R), one of the two openly gay Republicans running in 2014, who is known for his bipartisanship and working across the aisle.   

NH-01: Former Mayor of Manchester and Rep. Frank Guinta won the Republican primary with 49% of the vote, with former UNH Business School Dean Dan Innis receiving 41%.  Guinta previously won the seat in 2010 and was defeated in 2012 by Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D).  They will face off again in November, in what is expected to be another competitive year for the district.
 
NH-02: State Rep. Marilinda Garcia won the Republican nomination with 50% of the vote.  Garcia, who gained the support of the more conservative wing of the party, defeated former state Senator Gary Lambert. Republicans are excited about Marilinda, a 31 year old Hispanic woman, who has gained support across the Republican spectrum.  While she has Tea Party support, she is also appealing to the business community.  Rep. Ann Kuster (D) has the advantage in this race, but it is not one to count out.

BIPAC Action Fund Endorsements

Primary season is in the rearview and we are now only 55 days away from the general election.  This next round of candidate endorsements, one Senate race and six House races, focus on key races that we expect to be competitive in November where one candidate is the preferred choice of the business community. If your PAC and senior leadership has not taken a side in these races, we would strongly encourage you to do so.
 
U.S. Senate

Mike McFadden (R- Minnesota):  Businessman Mike McFadden is running to unseat Sen. Al Franken (D).  Franken who has developed a workmanlike approach to service in the Senate, has not been particularly friendly to business, scoring only 20% on BIPAC's 112th Voting Record.  First elected in 2008 by only a few hundred votes, Franken has often even voted against home state employer interests but has proven to be a prolific fundraiser and is running an aggressive campaign.  Mike McFadden's background is largely financial services and he is currently on a leave of absence from his role of co-CEO at Lazard Middle Market and has the support of the local Minnesota business community.  A Tim Pawlenty style campaigner, McFadden has also been endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  Average polling has Franken leading by about 8 points but Obama is surprisingly unpopular in the state and Franken has continued to remain below 50% in his reelection numbers, a dangerous place for an incumbent with less than two months to go.  www.mikemcfadden.com
 
U.S. House

Chris Gibson (R- NY 19):  Congressman Gibson faces a general election challenge from investor Sean Eldridge (D). Gibson scored a 91% on BIPAC's 112th Congress scorecard and has been a reliable vote for the business community.  A pragmatic Congressman and combat veteran, Gibson focuses primarily on fiscal and national security issues. This is a crossover district won by Obama in 2012.  Eldridge, whose husband was a co-founder of Facebook, has generally self-funded his campaign and while he talks about working across the aisle, advocates issues that are among the most partisan and divisive and consistently opposed to business priorities. www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com
 
Dan Logue (R-CA 3): Assemblyman Dan Logue is running against Congressman John Garamendi (D) in the 3rd district.  Logue was previously a county supervisor and business owner and one of the most intriguing candidates of the cycle.  He has a perfect rating from NFIB and the California Chamber of Commerce, and is an active advocate for solutions oriented government.  Garamendi, conversely, scored 4% on BIPAC's in the 112th Congress voting record and has demonstrated little interest in creating consensus solutions.  Logue is a reformer at heart and has a history of very strong constituent advocacy and building bipartisan coalitions to battle corruption, incompetence and waste.  President Obama won the 3rd district in 2008 and 2012, but in a midterm election this district has been known to be competitive. www.danlogue.com
 
Tom MacArthur (R- NJ 3): Businessman Tom MacArthur is running in the open seat to succeed retirement Rep. Jon Runyan (R).  He faces Democratic nominee, Aimee Belgard (D) in the general election.   This is another crossover district won by President Obama in 2012. MacArthur comes from a career in the insurance industry where he built and grew a small brokerage into a large multi-disciplinary company.   He has been endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, NFIB, and the almost the entire local business community.  www.tmac4congress.com
 
Dan Newhouse (R - WA 4): This is a top two primary state and two Republicans, Dan Newhouse and Clint Didier, advanced in the WA 4 open seat to replace retiring Rep. Doc Hastings (R).  Newhouse is a farmer, former state representative, former state agriculture commissioner and has a demonstrated history of working with the business community in a bipartisan manner.  Clint Didier is a former NFL lineman for the Washington Redskins and is endorsed by FreedomWorks and Ron Paul.  When the retiring Doc Hastings announced his endorsement of Newhouse, Didier responded by saying he didn't want DC insider support and preferred "liberty loving patriots" to support his campaign.  Much of the business community is rallying around Newhouse, especially due to his agriculture background.  www.dannewhouse.com
 
Elise Stefanik (R - NY 21):  Elise Stefanik is running to succeed Rep. Bill Owens (D).  She faces Democratic candidate, Brooklyn-based grocer and filmmaker Aaron Woolf (D) who moved to the district for the campaign.   29 years old, Stefanik has an extensive small business and policy background, previously serving in the Bush administration and at the Foreign Policy Initiative.  Stefanik is wrapping up the support of the local business community, including the New York State Builders Association and the New York State Automobile Dealers Association.  She is also a member of the NRCC's Young Gun program.  www.Eliseforcongress.com
 
David Young (R - IA 3):  After a somewhat surprising convention win, Young faces Democrat Staci Appel in the race to replace retiring Congressman Tom Latham (R).  Young was formerly the Chief of Staff to Senator Chuck Grassley (R) and is expected to operate in a similar manner. Young was one of the more business-oriented, mainstream candidates running in the GOP primary and his nomination certainly made this race more competitive.  This district was carried narrowly by Obama in 2012.  Young is gaining the support of the local business community, including the Iowa Corn Growers Association and Iowa Farm Bureau.  www.youngforiowa.com
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Top 10 Most Competitive Senate Races

8/20/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President of Political Affairs

With primary season almost complete and political campaigns nearing the final sprint to Election Day, it is a good time to review which races are most competitive heading into Labor Day.  In the Senate, Republicans need to pick up six seats to win a majority and control both houses of Congress.  The last three years of a divided Congress (Republicans controlling the House, Democrats controlling the Senate) has led to gridlock in Washington.  The Congress can’t even muster the political fortitude or agreement to name Post Offices and bridges anymore, much less pass things like an annual budget or appropriations.  The result is the lowest approval ratings of Congress in history.  Dissatisfaction with Washington is at depths never measured since polling began tracking such things. 

Three seats currently held by Democrats are highly likely to switch to Republican control.  Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota are all Democratic held seats in very heavily Republican states with well-funded and well liked Republicans.  So, with three seats “in the bag” for Republicans, they need three more to win control of the Senate.  The most competitive seats where they will try to do that are:

TOSS-UPS

LOUISIANA
Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu is running against Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy and a handful of other candidates.  Louisiana voted for Romney by 18 points and holds an open primary on Election Day with all candidates on the ballot regardless of party.  If no candidate receives 50%, a runoff election is held in December between the top two finishers, again, regardless of party.  Polls show Cassidy and Landrieu neck and neck, but both under 50%, meaning the two will likely face off in a December 5 runoff.  Landrieu is one of the most pro-business Democrats in the Senate and as the chair of the Energy Committee has been supportive of the extensive oil and gas interests in Louisiana, giving her a boost.  In a run-off scenario however, Landrieu would face an uphill struggle to turn out base Democrat voters in a non-traditional election time.  There are fewer African Americans in the state as many were displaced after Hurricane Katrina and base Democrats who remain are disenchanted.  Landrieu’s family’s political legacy and her ability to bring independent and some Republican crossover votes make this an enormously competitive race.

NORTH CAROLINA
Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan is facing Republican state house Speaker Thom Tillis in what has been the most expensive election to date.  Outside groups have already spent over $15 million on this race with pledges of much more to come.  This attests to the very close split in the campaign.  Hagan has been much more adversarial to the business community than Pryor in Arkansas or Landrieu, but North Carolina is a true swing state and Democrats are much better organized than in Louisiana or Arkansas.  The massive number of attack ads already aired has had the effect of diminishing both candidates severely and many North Carolina voters already view the election as a choice for the lesser of two evils as each candidate is highly unpopular and there is a much larger number of undecided voters than would be expected at this point in an election.  Polling has the race neck and neck with each candidate in the low 40s.

ARKANSAS
Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Pryor faces a tough re-election bid in 2014.  He is being challenged by freshman Rep. Tom Cotton.  While Pryor is relatively well liked in Arkansas, President Obama’s approval numbers in the state are dismal.  The state is trending red and went to 2012 GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney by over 20 points but has a solid history of electing Democrats to the Senate and Governorship.  Both candidates are showing impressive fundraising numbers and polling on average, has Cotton up three points.  However, taking on an incumbent is hard especially for a newcomer like Cotton against Pryor whose family has generations of elected service in the state.  Pryor is typically considered a pro-business Democrat in the state though his support of Harry Reid has made it difficult for him to break from his party on many significant occasions.  Cotton has frustrated the business community on a handful of occasions as well as he has aligned himself with Ted Cruz and other tea-party oriented groups that are not always supportive of a pro-growth agenda.

ALASKA
The fourth Democrat incumbent running in a state carried by Mitt Romney is Mark Begich, who won the seat following the indictment and scandal surrounding longtime Senator Ted Stevens (R).  Begich is the former Mayor of Anchorage whose father was a leading political figure in the state until his death in a plane crash in the 70s.  Begich is the first Democrat to win federal office in Alaska in over 30 years.  He faces former Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan who won the GOP primary against Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and tea-party activist Joe Miller.  Begich has run a disciplined campaign to date and has highlighted his work in bipartisan collaboration with fellow Alaska Senator Republican Lisa Murkowski.  Murkowski has pushed back however, asking him not to mention her in his ads and if Begich pushes too far he could draw Murkowski further into the race, but in active opposition to him.  Polling has the race neck and neck and Sullivan has done an admirable job of positioning himself as a practical, business oriented Republican.

COLORADO
Democratic Sen. Mark Udall looked to be safe in his re-election bid, until Rep. Cory Gardner jumped in the race in February.  Once Gardner entered, polling soon showed the two candidates statistically tied.  Colorado went to President Obama (D) in 2012 by six points.  As is the trend nationally, Obama’s approval ratings have dropped significantly in Colorado, hurting Udall’s election chances for 2014.   Gardner got a boost when Bob Beauprez won the GOP nomination for Governor making that a competitive seat as well rather than the highly controversial Tom Tancredo which would have forced a large amount of ticket splitting for Gardner to win.  Udall was helped when the anti-fracking ballot initiatives were shelved recently.  The ballot issues caused a huge rift between the business community and environmentalists, both of whom Udall needs to be successful and having them off the ballot means he will not have the difficult balancing act he had before.  This race is generally seen as the barometer of whether Republicans will sweep a large number of seats or not.  If Colorado goes Republican, it is probably an indication of a larger Republican wave.  If it remains Democrat, it likely means the Democrats have held off the worst of the GOP attacks.

IOWA
Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is retiring, leaving an open seat for 2014.  The Democrats quickly rallied around Congressman Bruce Braley, while the Republicans had several candidates compete for the nomination.   State Sen. Joni Ernst overwhelmingly won the GOP primary, despite the crowded field and that created momentum that has carried her into one of the most competitive races in the country.   Ernst has proven to be an impressive candidate and is running one of the most disciplined campaigns in the field this year.  Even in the primary, she consolidated tea party supporters with more traditional business establishment support and that broad appeal has served her well.  Braley is a standard issue Democrat and even though Iowa has tilted Democratic at the Presidential level the last few years, Braley has made a number of unforced errors including disparaging comments about farmers and senior Senator Charles Grassley who is highly popular in the state.  Also helping Ernst’s prospects is the highly popular Governor Terry Branstand running for reelection who has made high turnout amongst Republicans a priority.  Branstand is close to Ernst and is putting the full force of his political organization to work to support her election.  Polling at this point shows a dead even race.  

LEAN REPUBLICAN

KENTUCKY
Republican Leader Mitch McConnell faces a competitive race from Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.  McConnell also had a primary challenger, but McConnell's superior fundraising and organizational capacity left him little to worry about.  The real competitive race is the general, and this is one of the Democrat’s two opportunities to pick up a seat in 2014.  Current polling has the race very close despite the outsized Republican performance in Kentucky at the Presidential level.  McConnell is known for his fundraising and campaign prowess, but Grimes is holding her own and even recently outraised the Senator. Grimes, 35, has a political pedigree in the state and has proven her ability to win statewide in the Republican heavy state as she currently serves as Secretary of State.  The position, as in most states, is administrative and she hasn’t had to take any difficult votes and is attempting to position herself outside of the Obama administration, which is highly unpopular in the state, especially in the coal producing areas.  McConnell, meanwhile, is the embodiment of “Republicans in Washington” as the Senate GOP leader, and has served as Senator for almost 30 years in a year when members of Congress generically are literally held in lower esteem than Darth Vader.

GEORGIA
Republican business executive David Perdue, former CEO of Reebok and Dollar General Stores, won a crowded and hard fought GOP primary and will take on Democrat Michelle Nunn in this open seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss.  While Georgia hasn’t voted for a Democrat for Governor or Senator in over a decade and the state went solidly for Romney in 2012, Democrats are hoping Nunn can draw on the goodwill towards her father, former Senator Sam Nunn who is still very highly regarded in the state, as well as the fact that she has no voting record to pick apart.  She will attempt to paint Perdue as a Romney-like corporate raider but in a Republican leaning state in a Republican leaning year, the odds are with Perdue.  Ironically, Perdue can demonstrate his independence from the corporate world thanks to a high profile spat with the US Chamber of Commerce during the primary.

LEAN DEMOCRAT

MICHIGAN
This open seat features Democrat Congressman Gary Peters against Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.  The state went for Obama by 10 points in 2012 but has a Republican Governor, Republican Legislature and a majority of its Congressional seats are Republican.  When Land was elected Secretary of State, it was with the highest percentage of the vote of any Republican running statewide in recent history.  She also has the ability to partly self-fund the campaign and has already put in over $2 million of her own money.  Union groups in the state, especially autoworkers, are furious with Governor Rick Snyder for passing Right to Work legislation last year and have vowed an all-out voter mobilization and turnout effort that would benefit Peters should it materialize.  While every state tends to see non-Presidential year electorates that are slightly older and less minority than Presidential year turnouts, this is especially pronounced in Michigan for some reason, giving Republicans an almost even playing field in off-year elections as opposed to Presidential year turnout.  Peters has still been able to maintain some lead in the polls and the Democratic tilt of the state make it an uphill climb for Land though it is a race both parties are heavily invested in.

MINNESOTA
Republican business executive Mike McFadden is taking on Democrat incumbent Al Franken.  Franken has been a reliably Democratic vote, sometimes at the expense of home state interests but has proven himself to be a serious policy maker who gets the job done for his constituents.  McFadden is an attractive candidate with the ability to raise substantial financial resources.  Franken won in 2008 by less than 1000 votes but polls to date show him with a consistent lead but still with less than 50% of the vote and Obama with a surprisingly weak approval rating in the state.  

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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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BIPAC Action Fund Endorsements: AL, GA Runoffs & Senate Candidates

7/9/2014

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By Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

This week's EIS focuses on the BIPAC Action Fund endorsed candidates.  Four endorsed candidates in Alabama and Georgia are in crucial runoff elections taking place in July.  We are also recapping our list of endorsed Senate candidates to date.  In the following weeks we will focus on our endorsed candidates in the House.  BIPAC has actively worked with our members with operations in the states, with other business organizations and with the business community on the ground in the states, so the endorsed candidates are very much the consensus choice of businesses in the states.  We strongly encourage all of our members to make these candidates a priority. 

Upcoming runoffs: AL, GA

Alabama: July 15

In the 6th district, BIPAC endorsed candidate State Rep. Paul DeMarco is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Spencer Bachus (R).  DeMarco is in a runoff with Gary Palmer, Alabama Policy Institute co-founder.  Palmer has been endorsed by the Club for Growth.  DeMarco has an average rating of 95% from the Alabama NFIB, showing his commitment to the business community.  

Georgia: July 22

There are three runoffs that the business community should get involved in - the Senate race, 1st district and 10th district.  In the Senate, BIPAC endorsed candidate Rep. Jack Kingston (R) faces businessman Dave Perdue.  The winner of the runoff faces Michelle Nunn (D), in what is expected to be a competitive race.  In the 1st district, BIPAC endorsed candidate Buddy Carter (R) is running in Kingston's open seat, against Bob Johnson.  Carter, a businessman, has the support of the local business community and an A+ rating from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce while Johnson is running on tea party principles.  The 10th district has a similar dynamic, with the business community rallying around BIPAC endorsed candidate Mike Collins (R).  Collins has a small business background in the trucking industry and is running against Pastor Jody Hice, another tea party oriented candidate. 

BIPAC Senate Endorsements

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating:  Likely Republican

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito easily won the GOP nomination for the open Senate seat. Capito scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  She faces Democratic nominee Secretary of State Natalie Tennant in the general election.  Polling shows Capito with a double digit lead, making this seat a prime opportunity to move from adverse to business as it was when held by Rockefeller to pro-business as it would be with Capito.  www.capitoforsenate.com

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican

In one of the most competitive GOP primaries this cycle, Sen. Thad Cochran survived a runoff election with state Senator Chris McDaniel.   Senator Cochran scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and has a long history as a champion of free markets and working towards a pro-growth economic climate.  McDaniel was a Tea Party candidate backed by conservative groups such as Club for Growth.  Cochran now faces former Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the general election, but is expected to hold his seat. www.ThadForMississippi.com

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican

Senator Cornyn easily won his primary election back in March.  He faced several primary opponents, including Rep. Steve Stockman.  Cornyn has been a consistent business champion and is being uniformly supported by the business community in Texas and around the country.  Cornyn faces minimal opposition from David Alameel (D) in the general election. www.JohnCornyn.com

Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Leans Republican

Rep. Daines is running against Senator John Walsh (D) in a competitive general election.  Walsh was appointed to the seat in February, after Senator Baucus (D) resigned to become Ambassador to China.  Daines is a pro-business candidate who was been endorsed by BIPAC and the U.S. Chamber in 2012 when running for the at large Congressional seat and has proven to be a strong advocate for the business community during his time in the House.  Daines offers the best chance to make this seat reliably pro-business in its orientation.  www.stevedaines.com

Joni Ernst (R-IA): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up

State Senator Joni Ernst earned the GOP nomination with 56% of the vote, avoiding a nominating convention.  She now faces Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in what is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Ernst has earned 100% on the Iowa Prosperity Project's 2011 State Senate voting record and 90% on the 2012 State Senate voting record.  She has consolidated support within Iowa's business community over the last month and has attracted support from across the ideological spectrum.  www.joniforiowa.com

Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up

Rep. Cory Gardner is challenging incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D).   Gardner easily won the Republican nomination and has been a friend to the business community in the House.  There are few races featuring a greater contrast between the candidates in terms of their orientation towards supporting pro-growth economic policies.  Gardner scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and is working closely with employers in Colorado to expand their operations and create a more comfortable operating environment.  Polling shows this race to be a toss-up at this point, so your engagement is important.  www.corygardnerforsenate.com

Terri Lynn Land (R-MI): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up

Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is running against Rep. Gary Peters (D) for the Michigan open Senate seat. While Michigan went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012, this race is considered a tossup. Polls have the two candidates within 2-5 points from one another. Land has shown impressive fundraising to date and her record as Secretary of State, personal interviews, and history managing a family real estate development company in Michigan has shown her to be a friend of business. She is strongly supported by many of Michigan's leading employers and is the very clear choice of the business community in Michigan. Rep. Peters scored only 8% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record. www.terrilynnland.com

Rep. James Lankford (R-OK): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican

Rep. James Lankford won the Republican nomination for the open Senate special election to replace Sen. Coburn (R) and is now most likely going to be the next Senator from Oklahoma.  The Republican primary was the competitive race, with several candidates running, including state House Speaker T.W. Shannon.  Lankford scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Prosperity Project voting record. www.jameslankford.com

Thom Tillis (R-NC): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up

State House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) won the primary election with over 40% of the vote, avoiding a potentially damaging runoff.  Tillis is challenging Senator Kay Hagan (D) in the general.  Tillis was the preferred GOP nominee, due to his consistent record supporting economic growth and job creation in the state legislature. Hagan consistently scores less than 40% on leading business organization legislative scorecards.  This race is currently a toss-up, and a great opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business candidate.  www.ThomTillis.com

Rep. Jack Kingston (R- GA): Runoff election, July 22
BIPAC Rating: Lean Republican

Rep. Jack Kingston in running in the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R).  Kingston is in a runoff with businessman Dave Perdue.  Kingston has a solid business record, scoring an 87% average on BIPAC's Prosperity Project voting records, 85% on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's cumulative voting record and 86% on NAM's 112th Congress voting record.  Whoever advances out of the runoff faces a credible Democratic opponent in Michelle Nunn (D).  This could shape up to be a very competitive race in the general. www.jackkingston.org
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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