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Crystal Ball, Crystal Ball, Show Me November 5

10/29/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

With the midterm election less than a week away on November 4, there is more uncertainty of what the Senate results will be than in any recent election. While every election night holds surprises (remember Eric Cantor?), next Tuesday night we may be in store for several surprises and upsets.

The races that are most competitive with a week to go are the Republican held seats in Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia and the Democrat held seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado and Alaska.

So, let's rub the crystal ball and see what emerges....

A couple of assumptions: First, let's assume Republicans win South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia, giving them three pickups.  Republicans have held consistent double digit leads in all three seats for months.  Also, we can safely assume that Louisiana will go to a run off on December 6th and in that scenario is considered a toss-up.  

With KY, KS and GA in the air, but MT, SD and WV likely additions, Republicans start with a 45 seat foundation.

With MI, LA, NC, NH, CO, AR, AK, and IA in the air, Democrats start with a foundation of 44 seats.
Republicans need to get to 51 for a majority because at 50-50, Vice President Joe Biden is the tie-breaker on behalf of Democrats.

Polling averages in many of these races have been fairly consistent for the last month, indicating that the races have settled a bit.  While all are very close (within the margin of error in most cases) the stability of the leader hasn't shifted in over a month in many of these.  

Republicans have held a consistent lead in Kentucky, Arkansas, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado.  

Democrats have held steady leads in North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire.  

The three wild cards are Kansas, Georgia and Louisiana.  Louisiana, as we have said, is likely to go to a runoff which will be held December 6.  Increasingly, a runoff is also the most likely scenario in Georgia, but this one held January 6.  Kansas is the other real toss up and is complicated by the fact that Republican Pat Roberts isn't running against a Democrat, he's running against an Independent, Greg Orman, who hasn't said if he would caucus with Republicans or Democrats, but has hinted that he will work with whoever is in the majority. (Just to make it more fun, remember that Maine Independent Angus King has ALSO said he reserves the right to switch and caucus with Republicans if they take the majority).

If current polling trends hold steady for another week and predict who will win each state (a BIG "if"), then Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC.   KS and GA are both tied.  That puts Republicans at 50 seats with three in the air.  In a 50-50 tie, Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed.  
So, understanding that there will be at least one and probably two races outstanding, and possibly two Senators who could caucus with either party, what are the various scenarios and how likely are we to see each on the morning of November 5th?

Democrats Hold the Senate:
Democrats holding the Senate is the least likely scenario.  It would mean that Republicans won no more than two of the following: MI, NH, NC, CO, AR, AK, IA and/or lost seats in Georgia or Kentucky (or Orman wins Kansas and immediately announces as a Democrat).  Given the consistent polling advantage Republican candidates enjoy a week before the election, this is an unlikely scenario. 

Likelihood: 15%

Republicans Win the Senate:

For Republicans to know on November 5th that they will be in the majority in the Senate in the next Congress is more likely than Democrats knowing that THEY will be in the majority, but still not certain.  For this to happen, with Louisiana still out, would mean that Republicans won three or more of the races listed above AND swept GA, KY and KS.  With Republicans leading in polls in AR, CO, IA and AK, the first part of that equation is possible, but the second part is deicer.  A possible scenario is Roberts wins Kansas, GA and LA go to runoffs.  In this case, Republicans would have 51 and be in the majority regardless of the outcome of Georgia or Louisiana runoffs. 

Likelihood: 40%

Majority Control is Unclear:
An equally likely scenario is that we still won't know who will control the Senate on the morning after the election.  If current polling holds through Election Day, Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC.   KS and GA are both tied and LA is already headed to a runoff.  That puts Republicans at 50 seats and Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed. 

Likelihood: 45%

The permutations of which party Orman (and King) would caucus with, the results of runoffs, if any state switches from one side to the other in current polling (remember that ALL of these races are still within the margin of error) then we are in for an unpredictable Election Night where anything is possible the next morning.  

The one thing you CAN count on is receiving the latest updates and analysis from BIPAC so your members and employees will have the most updated information possible.
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Senate Outlook - One Month Out

10/8/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

We are now 27 days out from the election and into the final stretch.  Below is BIPAC's Senate Rankings for 2014, and today's EIS will focus on the current trajectory of the competitive races, including the Lean Republican, Toss Up and Lean Democrat.

Senate Outlook - One Month Out
Overview

Typically races move on or off the competitive playing field as the election cycle progresses, but this cycle has remained remarkably steady with the races that were thought to be competitive a year out still being the ones that are competitive less than a month out and with very few new races creeping into the competitive category.  All of the races outlined below are still considered highly competitive, but some are beginning to drift one way or another and are designated as "lean" towards one party or the other.

Lean Republican

AR:  Sen. Mark Pryor (D) has been on the list of most vulnerable Democrats for a while now, and not much is changing.  Pryor is relatively well liked and his family has been involved in Arkansas politics for years, but Arkansas is a solidly red state now at the federal level.  Romney won by 24 points in 2012 and Pyror is the only Democrat left in the federal delegation.  Most polls have Rep.  Tom Cotton (R) leading the race by an average four points, with Pryor stuck around 40% - bad numbers for an incumbent.

GA:  Democrats fielded an impressive candidate in Michelle Nunn (D), who has given Republicans a competitive race in Georgia.  However, now that the Republican primary is over and David Perdue (R) has coalesced the Republican base, he is starting to pull away in the polls and currently leads by about three points.  While Perdue is leading, both candidates are still under 50%, and if neither get a majority of the vote, this race will go into a runoff on January 6th.  Runoffs tend to favor Republicans, especially in a midterm election year, and depending how the other races flesh out on Election Day, this could be the race that decides the control of the Senate.

KY:  Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) has been an impressive candidate, but Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) has double downed and with Pres. Obama's dismal approval ratings in this coal state, the race is looking less and less competitive as we head into October.  Currently, McConnell leads on average by about five points, with his lead widening in the past few weeks.  This is still a competitive race, but McConnell has the advantage in the home stretch.

LA:  Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) continues to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle.  With no candidate in this race polling above 50%, it is likely the race will be decided in a runoff on December 6th.  If Democrats hold the Senate, Landrieu will become Chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which Democrats hoped would give her an edge in this race.  Cassidy however has run a good campaign and President Obama's approval rating in Louisiana is underwater.  Control of the Senate may come down to the LA runoff, and in the runoff polling, Cassidy leads by about six points.   

Toss Up

AK:  Sen. Mark Begich (D) is faring better than some of his colleagues this cycle, but still faces an extremely competitive race against former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan.  Polling in Alaska has been all over the place the past few months, with Begich and Sullivan both leading at one point or another.  With a very late Republican primary over, Sullivan has begun his general election campaigning in full and is leading the polls by 3-6 points.  However, polling in Alaska is notoriously difficult. This could go either way at this point.

CO:  This is a tossup race that no one had on their radar a year ago, with Rep. Gory Gardner (R) entering the race in March.  Since Gardner entered, polls showed him statistically tied with Sen. Mark Udall (D) and that has continued throughout the summer and into the final stretch.  Pres. Obama won Colorado in 2012 by five points, but his approval ratings continue to drop, hurting Udall's chances.  Gov. Hickenlooper (D) also faces a competitive election this cycle, which could further hurt Udall's reelection campaign. Expect this race to stay a tossup until the election.

IA:  Since Joni Ernst (R) won the GOP nomination in June, this race has been a tossup.  Democratic nominee Rep. Bruce Braley (D) has had trouble connecting with voters and like most other Democrats running this cycle, has had to distance himself from Pres. Obama's negative approval numbers in the state.   He also does not have the advantage of incumbency, like several of the other Democratic candidates this cycle.  Ernst has run a strong campaign and Republicans are hopeful that having popular Gov. Branstad (R) on the ticket as well will help her chances. Ernst currently leads Braley by an average of two points - still within the margin of error.

KS:  Kansas has become the wild card race this election cycle.  Sen. Pat Roberts (R) faces a surprisingly competitive general election after being damaged in the primary.  The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, had little name ID or funds for the general election.  He has been removed from the ballot, presenting a clear path for a challenge to Roberts by Independent candidate Greg Orman.  Orman has affiliated with each party over the years and describes himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate.  He has not indicated which party he would caucus with if elected.  On average, Orman is leading Roberts in the polls by five points though Roberts and outside groups have just begun attacking Orman who had been running months of positive ads, so the race is expected to tighten as the attacks sink in with voters. Further complicating Roberts' reelection chances is Gov. Sam Brownback (R), who is also up for re-election this cycle and is losing support from the more moderate wing of the Republican Party in Kansas.  This Senate race is currently a tossup and Roberts has become the most vulnerable Republican Senator this cycle.

Lean Democrat

MI:  For the past few months, Rep. Gary Peters (D) has been leading in the polls against former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R).  Michigan went for Pres. Obama in 2012 and is the only state Pres. Obama is visiting with a Senate race this fall, showing his national brand is not as damaged in Michigan as it is in other Senate states.  Peters is up by an average of seven points and this seat is leaning in his favor.

NH:  Carpet bagging attacks against former MA Senator Scott Brown (R) don't appear to be sticking and this race is getting closer and closer as we approach November. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) had a double digit lead in the summer, but now only leads by an average of five points.  While NH is currently in the lean D column, it could soon be moved to toss up, if the poll numbers continue to tighten.  Shaheen is well liked in the state, but Pres. Obama is underwater in NH and Brown is campaigning heavily on foreign policy, nationalizing the race.  New Hampshire, more than any other state, has a tendency to sway with the political winds, going heavily Democratic in strong Democratic years and strongly Republican in good GOP years.  If anyone could survive those powerful electoral winds, it would be Shaheen but the state's electoral tendencies run deep with the voters here.

NC:  Once of the more vulnerable Senators running for re-election, Kay Hagan (D) has started to pull away from state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in the polls, and if this trend continues, will be favored for re-election.  Tillis, coming from an unpopular legislative session, has been dropping in the polls, and his favorability ratings are less than Hagan, with only 36% of voters having a favorable view, compared to Hagan's 42%.  The North Carolina race has turned into a lesser of two evils race, with Hagan currently in the lead.
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Kansas, Michigan, Missouri & Washington Primary Recaps

8/6/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Director of Political Affairs

BIPAC Action Fund Endorsed Candidate Results

Senate:
*    MI: Terri Lynn Land Advanced to General Election

House:
*    MI-3: Brian Ellis: Lost Primary
*    MI-11: Dave Trott: Advanced to General Election

Kansas

Senate:

Senator Pat Roberts (R) will be back in the Senate for a fourth term after defeating his primary challenger radiologist Milton Wolf.   Wolf, backed by Tea Party groups such as the Senate Conservatives Fund, had a campaign plagued with scandal, after he posted x-rays of his patients on Facebook.  Roberts, however, had his own campaign issues to deal with, more specifically the criticism that he lives in Virginia.  He owns a home in Kansas, but leases it out.  Roberts is safe in the general election.

House:

KS-1: Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R) easily beat back a primary challenge from Alan LaPolice, a former school superintendent.  Huelskamp, a Tea Party favorite, took heat from the agriculture and ethanol industries in Kansas for his recent policy standings.  Huelskamp is favored in the general.

KS-4: Rep. Mike Pompeo (R) beat back a challenge from former Congressman Todd Tiahart.  Pompeo had a cash advantage and was leading in the polls up to the election.  Tiahart, who had endorsed Pompeo in his previous Congressional races, was running to Pompeo's left in the election, a rare occurrence in GOP primaries.  Pompeo received the backing of Koch Industries, the Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity.  This is a safe Republican seat and Pompeo is expected to easily win the general.

Michigan

Senate:

Rep. Gary Peters (D) and former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) faced no primary opposition in their Senate bids to succeed retiring Senator Carl Levin (D).  As such, they have been campaigning for the general election for weeks now.  Michigan went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012, and Peters has been leading in the polls, however BIPAC Action Fund endorsed candidate Land has proved to be a serious candidate and this will be an extremely competitive race.

House:

MI-1:  Congressman Dan Benishek (R) had a primary challenger, but the competitive race in this district is the general.  Benishek handily defeated Tea Party candidate Alan Arcand on Tuesday.  He now faces Jerry Cannon (D), a former county sheriff and retired Army Major General, in what could shape up to be a race to watch.

MI-3:  Rep. Justin Amash (R) staved off a primary challenge from businessman Brian Ellis.  Amash, a Tea Party darling in the House, was one of the few Republicans whose primary challenger was endorsed by business groups, such as BIPAC and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  Amash had help from Tea Party groups, such as the Club for Growth, and the advantage of a primary electorate on his side.  He is safe in the general.

MI-4:  State Sen. John Moolenaar won the GOP nomination to succeed Rep. Dave Camp (R).  Moolenaar was endorsed by both Rep. Camp and Tea Party groups, including the Tea Party Express. Paul Mitchell self-funded his campaign.  The race was tight up to Election Day, with the candidates close in the polls.  This is a safe Republican seat and Moolenaar will be the next Congressman.

MI-8:  Former State Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R) and Ingham County Treasurer Eric Schertzing will be vying to succeed retiring Rep. Mike Rogers (R) in the general election.  Bishop was backed by Rep. Rogers and is favored in the general election, but this is still a race to watch.  

MI-11:  Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R) becomes the next incumbent to fall in the primary season.  He had a competitive primary on his hands this year, after being dubbed an accidental candidate in 2012, when Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) failed to qualify for the ballot.  This year, the BIPAC Action Fund endorsed candidate Dave Trott in challenging Bentivolio.  As expected, he beat Bentivolio.  Trott also had the backing of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Michigan Chamber of Commerce, Detroit Regional Chamber and Michigan Farm Bureau.  Trott will face Bobby McKenzie in the general election.  Trott starts with the advantage. 

MI-12: Debbie Dingell (D) has been the heir apparent to the open seat of her husband, Rep. John Dingell(D), for some time, and it is now official. Dingell is a Democratic strategist, former GM executive and chairwoman of the Wayne State University board of governors.  She faces nominal opposition in November.

MI-14:  Four Democrats ran in this race to succeed retiring Rep. Gary Peters (D) with Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence winning the nomination.  This is a solid Democratic district and Lawrence will be the next Congressman. 

Missouri

There were no competitive primaries in Missouri, and no competitive general election races.

Washington

House:

WA 4:  Rep. Doc Hastings (R) is retiring, giving another Republican a chance to hold this seat. Eight Republicans ran for the seat, along with two Democrats and two independents. Washington is one of the few states that does all mail ballots for elections, and the top two vote getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election.  Two Republicans, former state Agriculture Commissioner Dan Newhouse and Clint Didier, a former NFL player advanced to the general.  Newhouse was the frontrunner going into the primary, as well as the establishment choice, and will continue to have the edge for November.

WA-1: Tea Party oriented Robert Sutherland edged Microsoft Executive Pedro Celis (R) to challenge Rep. Suzan DelBene (D) in November. Celis was one of four Republican candidates vying for the nomination and was considered the best shot for Republicans to make this race competitive.  DelBene is favored to return to Congress.
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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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Stakes in the States: Recall Elections

8/12/2013

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What is a recall election? It is a procedure that allows citizens to remove and replace an elected official before the end of their term. Recalls can be used to rid the office of a corrupt or incompetent leader, for partisan politics, or removing officials for a policy position. It is estimated that a majority, three-fourths, of recall elections are at city council or school board level, though there have been increasing instances of recalls at the state level. Nineteen states (AK, AZ, CA, CO, GA, ID, IL, KS, LA, MI, MN, MT, NV, NJ, ND, OR, RI, WA and WI) and the District of Columbia currently allow recalls of state officials. In the past three years, several states have seen state elected officials face recalls, including WI, AZ, MI and currently, CO.

State Level Recalls since 2010 (according to National Conference of State Legislatures)

  • 2011 Wisconsin: Nine state senators faced recall elections regarding the budget bill proposed by Governor Walker (R). Sens. Robert Cowles (R), Alberta Darling (R), Dave Hansen (D), Sheila Harsdorf (R), Jim Holperin (D), Luther Olsen (R) and Robert Wirch (D) survived recall attempts. Senators Randy Hopper (R) and Dan Kapanke (R) were recalled.
  • 2011 Arizona: Senate President Russell Pearce (R) was recalled over his sponsorship of AZ’s immigration law.
  • 2011 Michigan: State Representative Paul Scott (R) was recalled for supporting Gov. Snyder’s budget and angering teachers unions.
  • 2012 Wisconsin: Gov. Walker and four state senators faced recalls over collective bargaining issues. Gov. Scott Walker, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) and Senator Terry Moulton (R) survived recall attempts. Senator Van Wanggaard (R) was recalled. Senator Pam Galloway (R) resigned before her recall election, a recall was still held for her seat.
  • 2013 Colorado: State Senate President John Morse (D) and Senator Angela Giron (D) face recall elections on September 10 for their support of gun control legislation.
In the first ever recall elections of state lawmakers in Colorado, two Democratic senators in Colorado are facing recalls due to their vote on stricter gun control measures, State Senate President John Morse of El Paso County and Senator Angela Giron of Pueblo County. After the Secretary of State deemed there were enough signatures for a recall, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) set the recall election date for September 10, 2013.

The gun control bills causing such uproar in CO, passed in the 2013 legislative session by the Democratically-controlled CO state legislature, were the first such bills passed in over ten years. This is a hot topic issue in a state that is well known for the Columbine High School and Aurora shootings, but is also known for its bipartisan passion of hunting and sport shooting.

A group behind the recall, the Basic Freedom Defense Fund (501 (c)(4) non-profit), was set up in February in response to the passed gun legislation. The founding members say the main issue is about legislators not listening to their constituents. Originally, four Democrats were targeted to be recalled, including Sen. Evie Hudak (D) of Westminster and Rep. Mike McLachlan (D) of Durango but only the recall attempts for Sens. Morse and Giron gained enough signatures. Former Colorado Springs City Councilman Bernie Herpin (R) is challenging Morse and former police officer Georgia Rivera (R) of Pueblo is challenging Giron.

Money has been pouring into the elections, with Giron and Morse raising nearly a quarter million dollars, and receiving thousands of dollars from Colorado liberal groups. Recall supporters have been sending their funds to the Basic Freedom Defense, and the NRA has helped with mailers and phone banks. According to El Paso and Pueblo county clerks, the elections will cost somewhere between $150,000 and $200,000.

Even if the recall attempts are successful, Democrats will still hold the majority in the Senate, 18-17. However, supporters of the recall still hope this will send messages to legislators in CO and across the country.

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