Category: Kentucky

Crystal Ball, Crystal Ball, Show Me November 5

10/29/2014

by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

With the midterm election less than a week away on November 4, there is more uncertainty of what the Senate results will be than in any recent election. While every election night holds surprises (remember Eric Cantor?), next Tuesday night we may be in store for several surprises and upsets.

The races that are most competitive with a week to go are the Republican held seats in Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia and the Democrat held seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado and Alaska.

So, let's rub the crystal ball and see what emerges....

A couple of assumptions: First, let's assume Republicans win South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia, giving them three pickups. Republicans have held consistent double digit leads in all three seats for months. Also, we can safely assume that Louisiana will go to a run off on December 6th and in that scenario is considered a toss-up.

With KY, KS and GA in the air, but MT, SD and WV likely additions, Republicans start with a 45 seat foundation.

With MI, LA, NC, NH, CO, AR, AK, and IA in the air, Democrats start with a foundation of 44 seats.
Republicans need to get to 51 for a majority because at 50-50, Vice President Joe Biden is the tie-breaker on behalf of Democrats.

Polling averages in many of these races have been fairly consistent for the last month, indicating that the races have settled a bit. While all are very close (within the margin of error in most cases) the stability of the leader hasn't shifted in over a month in many of these.

Republicans have held a consistent lead in Kentucky, Arkansas, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado.

Democrats have held steady leads in North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire.

The three wild cards are Kansas, Georgia and Louisiana. Louisiana, as we have said, is likely to go to a runoff which will be held December 6. Increasingly, a runoff is also the most likely scenario in Georgia, but this one held January 6. Kansas is the other real toss up and is complicated by the fact that Republican Pat Roberts isn't running against a Democrat, he's running against an Independent, Greg Orman, who hasn't said if he would caucus with Republicans or Democrats, but has hinted that he will work with whoever is in the majority. (Just to make it more fun, remember that Maine Independent Angus King has ALSO said he reserves the right to switch and caucus with Republicans if they take the majority).

If current polling trends hold steady for another week and predict who will win each state (a BIG "if"), then Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC. KS and GA are both tied. That puts Republicans at 50 seats with three in the air. In a 50-50 tie, Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed.
So, understanding that there will be at least one and probably two races outstanding, and possibly two Senators who could caucus with either party, what are the various scenarios and how likely are we to see each on the morning of November 5th?

Democrats Hold the Senate:
Democrats holding the Senate is the least likely scenario. It would mean that Republicans won no more than two of the following: MI, NH, NC, CO, AR, AK, IA and/or lost seats in Georgia or Kentucky (or Orman wins Kansas and immediately announces as a Democrat). Given the consistent polling advantage Republican candidates enjoy a week before the election, this is an unlikely scenario.

Likelihood: 15%

Republicans Win the Senate:
For Republicans to know on November 5th that they will be in the majority in the Senate in the next Congress is more likely than Democrats knowing that THEY will be in the majority, but still not certain. For this to happen, with Louisiana still out, would mean that Republicans won three or more of the races listed above AND swept GA, KY and KS. With Republicans leading in polls in AR, CO, IA and AK, the first part of that equation is possible, but the second part is deicer. A possible scenario is Roberts wins Kansas, GA and LA go to runoffs. In this case, Republicans would have 51 and be in the majority regardless of the outcome of Georgia or Louisiana runoffs.

Likelihood: 40%

Majority Control is Unclear:
An equally likely scenario is that we still won't know who will control the Senate on the morning after the election. If current polling holds through Election Day, Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC. KS and GA are both tied and LA is already headed to a runoff. That puts Republicans at 50 seats and Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed.

Likelihood: 45%

The permutations of which party Orman (and King) would caucus with, the results of runoffs, if any state switches from one side to the other in current polling (remember that ALL of these races are still within the margin of error) then we are in for an unpredictable Election Night where anything is possible the next morning.

The one thing you CAN count on is receiving the latest updates and analysis from BIPAC so your members and employees will have the most updated information possible.

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Senate Outlook - One Month Out

10/8/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

We are now 27 days out from the election and into the final stretch. Below is BIPAC's Senate Rankings for 2014, and today's EIS will focus on the current trajectory of the competitive races, including the Lean Republican, Toss Up and Lean Democrat.

Overview

Typically races move on or off the competitive playing field as the election cycle progresses, but this cycle has remained remarkably steady with the races that were thought to be competitive a year out still being the ones that are competitive less than a month out and with very few new races creeping into the competitive category. All of the races outlined below are still considered highly competitive, but some are beginning to drift one way or another and are designated as "lean" towards one party or the other.

Lean Republican

AR: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) has been on the list of most vulnerable Democrats for a while now, and not much is changing. Pryor is relatively well liked and his family has been involved in Arkansas politics for years, but Arkansas is a solidly red state now at the federal level. Romney won by 24 points in 2012 and Pyror is the only Democrat left in the federal delegation. Most polls have Rep. Tom Cotton (R) leading the race by an average four points, with Pryor stuck around 40% - bad numbers for an incumbent.

GA: Democrats fielded an impressive candidate in Michelle Nunn (D), who has given Republicans a competitive race in Georgia. However, now that the Republican primary is over and David Perdue (R) has coalesced the Republican base, he is starting to pull away in the polls and currently leads by about three points. While Perdue is leading, both candidates are still under 50%, and if neither get a majority of the vote, this race will go into a runoff on January 6th. Runoffs tend to favor Republicans, especially in a midterm election year, and depending how the other races flesh out on Election Day, this could be the race that decides the control of the Senate.

KY: Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) has been an impressive candidate, but Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) has double downed and with Pres. Obama's dismal approval ratings in this coal state, the race is looking less and less competitive as we head into October. Currently, McConnell leads on average by about five points, with his lead widening in the past few weeks. This is still a competitive race, but McConnell has the advantage in the home stretch.

LA: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) continues to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle. With no candidate in this race polling above 50%, it is likely the race will be decided in a runoff on December 6th. If Democrats hold the Senate, Landrieu will become Chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which Democrats hoped would give her an edge in this race. Cassidy however has run a good campaign and President Obama's approval rating in Louisiana is underwater. Control of the Senate may come down to the LA runoff, and in the runoff polling, Cassidy leads by about six points.

Toss Up

AK: Sen. Mark Begich (D) is faring better than some of his colleagues this cycle, but still faces an extremely competitive race against former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan. Polling in Alaska has been all over the place the past few months, with Begich and Sullivan both leading at one point or another. With a very late Republican primary over, Sullivan has begun his general election campaigning in full and is leading the polls by 3-6 points. However, polling in Alaska is notoriously difficult. This could go either way at this point.

CO: This is a tossup race that no one had on their radar a year ago, with Rep. Gory Gardner (R) entering the race in March. Since Gardner entered, polls showed him statistically tied with Sen. Mark Udall (D) and that has continued throughout the summer and into the final stretch. Pres. Obama won Colorado in 2012 by five points, but his approval ratings continue to drop, hurting Udall's chances. Gov. Hickenlooper (D) also faces a competitive election this cycle, which could further hurt Udall's reelection campaign. Expect this race to stay a tossup until the election.

IA: Since Joni Ernst (R) won the GOP nomination in June, this race has been a tossup. Democratic nominee Rep. Bruce Braley (D) has had trouble connecting with voters and like most other Democrats running this cycle, has had to distance himself from Pres. Obama's negative approval numbers in the state. He also does not have the advantage of incumbency, like several of the other Democratic candidates this cycle. Ernst has run a strong campaign and Republicans are hopeful that having popular Gov. Branstad (R) on the ticket as well will help her chances. Ernst currently leads Braley by an average of two points - still within the margin of error.

KS: Kansas has become the wild card race this election cycle. Sen. Pat Roberts (R) faces a surprisingly competitive general election after being damaged in the primary. The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, had little name ID or funds for the general election. He has been removed from the ballot, presenting a clear path for a challenge to Roberts by Independent candidate Greg Orman. Orman has affiliated with each party over the years and describes himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate. He has not indicated which party he would caucus with if elected. On average, Orman is leading Roberts in the polls by five points though Roberts and outside groups have just begun attacking Orman who had been running months of positive ads, so the race is expected to tighten as the attacks sink in with voters. Further complicating Roberts' reelection chances is Gov. Sam Brownback (R), who is also up for re-election this cycle and is losing support from the more moderate wing of the Republican Party in Kansas. This Senate race is currently a tossup and Roberts has become the most vulnerable Republican Senator this cycle.

Lean Democrat

MI: For the past few months, Rep. Gary Peters (D) has been leading in the polls against former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R). Michigan went for Pres. Obama in 2012 and is the only state Pres. Obama is visiting with a Senate race this fall, showing his national brand is not as damaged in Michigan as it is in other Senate states. Peters is up by an average of seven points and this seat is leaning in his favor.

NH: Carpet bagging attacks against former MA Senator Scott Brown (R) don't appear to be sticking and this race is getting closer and closer as we approach November. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) had a double digit lead in the summer, but now only leads by an average of five points. While NH is currently in the lean D column, it could soon be moved to toss up, if the poll numbers continue to tighten. Shaheen is well liked in the state, but Pres. Obama is underwater in NH and Brown is campaigning heavily on foreign policy, nationalizing the race. New Hampshire, more than any other state, has a tendency to sway with the political winds, going heavily Democratic in strong Democratic years and strongly Republican in good GOP years. If anyone could survive those powerful electoral winds, it would be Shaheen but the state's electoral tendencies run deep with the voters here.

NC: Once of the more vulnerable Senators running for re-election, Kay Hagan (D) has started to pull away from state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in the polls, and if this trend continues, will be favored for re-election. Tillis, coming from an unpopular legislative session, has been dropping in the polls, and his favorability ratings are less than Hagan, with only 36% of voters having a favorable view, compared to Hagan's 42%. The North Carolina race has turned into a lesser of two evils race, with Hagan currently in the lead.

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Top 10 Most Competitive Senate Races

8/20/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President of Political Affairs

With primary season almost complete and political campaigns nearing the final sprint to Election Day, it is a good time to review which races are most competitive heading into Labor Day. In the Senate, Republicans need to pick up six seats to win a majority and control both houses of Congress. The last three years of a divided Congress (Republicans controlling the House, Democrats controlling the Senate) has led to gridlock in Washington. The Congress can’t even muster the political fortitude or agreement to name Post Offices and bridges anymore, much less pass things like an annual budget or appropriations. The result is the lowest approval ratings of Congress in history. Dissatisfaction with Washington is at depths never measured since polling began tracking such things.

Three seats currently held by Democrats are highly likely to switch to Republican control. Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota are all Democratic held seats in very heavily Republican states with well-funded and well liked Republicans. So, with three seats “in the bag” for Republicans, they need three more to win control of the Senate. The most competitive seats where they will try to do that are:

TOSS-UPS

LOUISIANA
Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu is running against Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy and a handful of other candidates. Louisiana voted for Romney by 18 points and holds an open primary on Election Day with all candidates on the ballot regardless of party. If no candidate receives 50%, a runoff election is held in December between the top two finishers, again, regardless of party. Polls show Cassidy and Landrieu neck and neck, but both under 50%, meaning the two will likely face off in a December 5 runoff. Landrieu is one of the most pro-business Democrats in the Senate and as the chair of the Energy Committee has been supportive of the extensive oil and gas interests in Louisiana, giving her a boost. In a run-off scenario however, Landrieu would face an uphill struggle to turn out base Democrat voters in a non-traditional election time. There are fewer African Americans in the state as many were displaced after Hurricane Katrina and base Democrats who remain are disenchanted. Landrieu’s family’s political legacy and her ability to bring independent and some Republican crossover votes make this an enormously competitive race.

NORTH CAROLINA
Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan is facing Republican state house Speaker Thom Tillis in what has been the most expensive election to date. Outside groups have already spent over $15 million on this race with pledges of much more to come. This attests to the very close split in the campaign. Hagan has been much more adversarial to the business community than Pryor in Arkansas or Landrieu, but North Carolina is a true swing state and Democrats are much better organized than in Louisiana or Arkansas. The massive number of attack ads already aired has had the effect of diminishing both candidates severely and many North Carolina voters already view the election as a choice for the lesser of two evils as each candidate is highly unpopular and there is a much larger number of undecided voters than would be expected at this point in an election. Polling has the race neck and neck with each candidate in the low 40s.

ARKANSAS
Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Pryor faces a tough re-election bid in 2014. He is being challenged by freshman Rep. Tom Cotton. While Pryor is relatively well liked in Arkansas, President Obama’s approval numbers in the state are dismal. The state is trending red and went to 2012 GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney by over 20 points but has a solid history of electing Democrats to the Senate and Governorship. Both candidates are showing impressive fundraising numbers and polling on average, has Cotton up three points. However, taking on an incumbent is hard especially for a newcomer like Cotton against Pryor whose family has generations of elected service in the state. Pryor is typically considered a pro-business Democrat in the state though his support of Harry Reid has made it difficult for him to break from his party on many significant occasions. Cotton has frustrated the business community on a handful of occasions as well as he has aligned himself with Ted Cruz and other tea-party oriented groups that are not always supportive of a pro-growth agenda.

ALASKA
The fourth Democrat incumbent running in a state carried by Mitt Romney is Mark Begich, who won the seat following the indictment and scandal surrounding longtime Senator Ted Stevens (R). Begich is the former Mayor of Anchorage whose father was a leading political figure in the state until his death in a plane crash in the 70s. Begich is the first Democrat to win federal office in Alaska in over 30 years. He faces former Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan who won the GOP primary against Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and tea-party activist Joe Miller. Begich has run a disciplined campaign to date and has highlighted his work in bipartisan collaboration with fellow Alaska Senator Republican Lisa Murkowski. Murkowski has pushed back however, asking him not to mention her in his ads and if Begich pushes too far he could draw Murkowski further into the race, but in active opposition to him. Polling has the race neck and neck and Sullivan has done an admirable job of positioning himself as a practical, business oriented Republican.

COLORADO
Democratic Sen. Mark Udall looked to be safe in his re-election bid, until Rep. Cory Gardner jumped in the race in February. Once Gardner entered, polling soon showed the two candidates statistically tied. Colorado went to President Obama (D) in 2012 by six points. As is the trend nationally, Obama’s approval ratings have dropped significantly in Colorado, hurting Udall’s election chances for 2014. Gardner got a boost when Bob Beauprez won the GOP nomination for Governor making that a competitive seat as well rather than the highly controversial Tom Tancredo which would have forced a large amount of ticket splitting for Gardner to win. Udall was helped when the anti-fracking ballot initiatives were shelved recently. The ballot issues caused a huge rift between the business community and environmentalists, both of whom Udall needs to be successful and having them off the ballot means he will not have the difficult balancing act he had before. This race is generally seen as the barometer of whether Republicans will sweep a large number of seats or not. If Colorado goes Republican, it is probably an indication of a larger Republican wave. If it remains Democrat, it likely means the Democrats have held off the worst of the GOP attacks.

IOWA
Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is retiring, leaving an open seat for 2014. The Democrats quickly rallied around Congressman Bruce Braley, while the Republicans had several candidates compete for the nomination. State Sen. Joni Ernst overwhelmingly won the GOP primary, despite the crowded field and that created momentum that has carried her into one of the most competitive races in the country. Ernst has proven to be an impressive candidate and is running one of the most disciplined campaigns in the field this year. Even in the primary, she consolidated tea party supporters with more traditional business establishment support and that broad appeal has served her well. Braley is a standard issue Democrat and even though Iowa has tilted Democratic at the Presidential level the last few years, Braley has made a number of unforced errors including disparaging comments about farmers and senior Senator Charles Grassley who is highly popular in the state. Also helping Ernst’s prospects is the highly popular Governor Terry Branstand running for reelection who has made high turnout amongst Republicans a priority. Branstand is close to Ernst and is putting the full force of his political organization to work to support her election. Polling at this point shows a dead even race.

LEAN REPUBLICAN

KENTUCKY
Republican Leader Mitch McConnell faces a competitive race from Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell also had a primary challenger, but McConnell's superior fundraising and organizational capacity left him little to worry about. The real competitive race is the general, and this is one of the Democrat’s two opportunities to pick up a seat in 2014. Current polling has the race very close despite the outsized Republican performance in Kentucky at the Presidential level. McConnell is known for his fundraising and campaign prowess, but Grimes is holding her own and even recently outraised the Senator. Grimes, 35, has a political pedigree in the state and has proven her ability to win statewide in the Republican heavy state as she currently serves as Secretary of State. The position, as in most states, is administrative and she hasn’t had to take any difficult votes and is attempting to position herself outside of the Obama administration, which is highly unpopular in the state, especially in the coal producing areas. McConnell, meanwhile, is the embodiment of “Republicans in Washington” as the Senate GOP leader, and has served as Senator for almost 30 years in a year when members of Congress generically are literally held in lower esteem than Darth Vader.

GEORGIA
Republican business executive David Perdue, former CEO of Reebok and Dollar General Stores, won a crowded and hard fought GOP primary and will take on Democrat Michelle Nunn in this open seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss. While Georgia hasn’t voted for a Democrat for Governor or Senator in over a decade and the state went solidly for Romney in 2012, Democrats are hoping Nunn can draw on the goodwill towards her father, former Senator Sam Nunn who is still very highly regarded in the state, as well as the fact that she has no voting record to pick apart. She will attempt to paint Perdue as a Romney-like corporate raider but in a Republican leaning state in a Republican leaning year, the odds are with Perdue. Ironically, Perdue can demonstrate his independence from the corporate world thanks to a high profile spat with the US Chamber of Commerce during the primary.

LEAN DEMOCRAT

MICHIGAN
This open seat features Democrat Congressman Gary Peters against Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. The state went for Obama by 10 points in 2012 but has a Republican Governor, Republican Legislature and a majority of its Congressional seats are Republican. When Land was elected Secretary of State, it was with the highest percentage of the vote of any Republican running statewide in recent history. She also has the ability to partly self-fund the campaign and has already put in over $2 million of her own money. Union groups in the state, especially autoworkers, are furious with Governor Rick Snyder for passing Right to Work legislation last year and have vowed an all-out voter mobilization and turnout effort that would benefit Peters should it materialize. While every state tends to see non-Presidential year electorates that are slightly older and less minority than Presidential year turnouts, this is especially pronounced in Michigan for some reason, giving Republicans an almost even playing field in off-year elections as opposed to Presidential year turnout. Peters has still been able to maintain some lead in the polls and the Democratic tilt of the state make it an uphill climb for Land though it is a race both parties are heavily invested in.

MINNESOTA
Republican business executive Mike McFadden is taking on Democrat incumbent Al Franken. Franken has been a reliably Democratic vote, sometimes at the expense of home state interests but has proven himself to be a serious policy maker who gets the job done for his constituents. McFadden is an attractive candidate with the ability to raise substantial financial resources. Franken won in 2008 by less than 1000 votes but polls to date show him with a consistent lead but still with less than 50% of the vote and Obama with a surprisingly weak approval rating in the state.

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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections. By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief. The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin. The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate. Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school. That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor. However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents. It is a revealing test for both. It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns. This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics: the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections. So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare. Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated. In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better. Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader. This is going to change the campaign dynamics. Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem. Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans. Neither number is particular good. However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago. For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise. That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina. Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership. GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision. Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa. Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley. Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job." If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left. In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House. In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held. There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats. All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed. We will keep you posted.

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AP: "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...

U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."

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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out. Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:

May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.

The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding. As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today.

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors: retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.

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Business and the Tea Party Insurgency

6/18/2014

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It is understood the GOP will maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which does not speak to "who" will control the House GOP. The exodus of so many senior Democrats is telling. Regarding governors, although the GOP will lose ground, the big gains Democrats hoped to achieve in state houses isn't going to materialize. All eyes are then focused on whether the GOP will regain the U.S. Senate.

Washington wisdom suggests outright control of the Senate is the GOP's to lose. The environment seems consistent with that. The public leans towards GOP control of Congress. The President's approval is under water by double digits in key states and some core issues are going south for their party. Historically, the party of the White House doesn't do well in the off year election during a President's second term and given their base historically doesn't show up well in off year elections anyway, therefore Democrats face a potentially toxic political environment in November.

The math and the cadre of quality GOP candidates also seems to suggest a GOP advantage. The GOP needs six seats to regain the majority outright. Three of those seem certain, assuming the GOP candidates in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia keep their eye on the ball. That leaves a target rich environment of another eleven or so potentially competitive Senate races from which the GOP needs to win three, assuming they hold Georgia and Kentucky. In six of those eleven states, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina, the GOP candidate leads in three and the other three are legitimate jump balls. Let's not slice this to fine at this point. They are all close. There are five other races in Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia that lean Democratic but with numbers to iffy to provide much comfort. A little push from a legitimate wave and the close seats and anyone of these leaners could move in the GOP direction.

Still, the GOP has recently squandered similar opportunities. This time, however, it may be less about bad candidates than outdated campaigns. The recent upset of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia teaches us three obvious lessons; keeping your eye on the ball back home matters, money alone is no cure for taking your eye off the ball and the electorate everywhere is pretty angry at Washington arrogance. Maybe not so obvious, however, was the oft stated disdain for Leader Cantor's cozy relationship with "corporate influence." While anti-big business, "crony capitalism" has been part of the Tea Party line for some time, it was full-throated the day after this unknown and underfunded candidate upset the Majority Leader even after being outspent 5 to 1.

As I was preparing my thoughts for this newsletter, Red State published an article entitled "Big Business is afraid of conservatives - and they should be." Although I don't buy the full narrative, it does speak to a growing belief among many that "corporate" America is as much a part of the problem as "big government" and hints that big, overt corporate support of candidates may not always be as helpful as it once was.

This carries a significant warning, less related to the rhetoric of the extreme right than it to the tactics used to defend against their insurgency. Congressman Ralph Hall (R-TX) had the support of the business "establishment" and lost in a run off. Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) had the support of the establishment too and came in a close second in his primary and is forced to a runoff. Conversely, Tea Party targets Congressman Mike Simpson (R-ID) and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) made the ground game and personal voter contact mainstays of their campaigns and won handily. While it is obvious there was a significant difference in the capability of these candidates, it does suggest there is no substitute for real grassroots in this environment, even by, or especially by, business. Maybe we should keep our eye on the same ball.

Brad Dayspring, a former Cantor aide and NRSC Communications Director said last week, "one of the extremely valuable, must follow lessons is you have to adapt and run a modern campaign. Doing things the same old way in the current environment and with the current electorate isn't going to cut it anymore." Good advice for the GOP and for the business community.

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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:

Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.

To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.

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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013. This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.

The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports. Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30. In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.

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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.

To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.

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