Category: Michigan

Crystal Ball, Crystal Ball, Show Me November 5

10/29/2014

by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

With the midterm election less than a week away on November 4, there is more uncertainty of what the Senate results will be than in any recent election. While every election night holds surprises (remember Eric Cantor?), next Tuesday night we may be in store for several surprises and upsets.

The races that are most competitive with a week to go are the Republican held seats in Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia and the Democrat held seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado and Alaska.

So, let's rub the crystal ball and see what emerges....

A couple of assumptions: First, let's assume Republicans win South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia, giving them three pickups. Republicans have held consistent double digit leads in all three seats for months. Also, we can safely assume that Louisiana will go to a run off on December 6th and in that scenario is considered a toss-up.

With KY, KS and GA in the air, but MT, SD and WV likely additions, Republicans start with a 45 seat foundation.

With MI, LA, NC, NH, CO, AR, AK, and IA in the air, Democrats start with a foundation of 44 seats.
Republicans need to get to 51 for a majority because at 50-50, Vice President Joe Biden is the tie-breaker on behalf of Democrats.

Polling averages in many of these races have been fairly consistent for the last month, indicating that the races have settled a bit. While all are very close (within the margin of error in most cases) the stability of the leader hasn't shifted in over a month in many of these.

Republicans have held a consistent lead in Kentucky, Arkansas, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado.

Democrats have held steady leads in North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire.

The three wild cards are Kansas, Georgia and Louisiana. Louisiana, as we have said, is likely to go to a runoff which will be held December 6. Increasingly, a runoff is also the most likely scenario in Georgia, but this one held January 6. Kansas is the other real toss up and is complicated by the fact that Republican Pat Roberts isn't running against a Democrat, he's running against an Independent, Greg Orman, who hasn't said if he would caucus with Republicans or Democrats, but has hinted that he will work with whoever is in the majority. (Just to make it more fun, remember that Maine Independent Angus King has ALSO said he reserves the right to switch and caucus with Republicans if they take the majority).

If current polling trends hold steady for another week and predict who will win each state (a BIG "if"), then Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC. KS and GA are both tied. That puts Republicans at 50 seats with three in the air. In a 50-50 tie, Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed.
So, understanding that there will be at least one and probably two races outstanding, and possibly two Senators who could caucus with either party, what are the various scenarios and how likely are we to see each on the morning of November 5th?

Democrats Hold the Senate:
Democrats holding the Senate is the least likely scenario. It would mean that Republicans won no more than two of the following: MI, NH, NC, CO, AR, AK, IA and/or lost seats in Georgia or Kentucky (or Orman wins Kansas and immediately announces as a Democrat). Given the consistent polling advantage Republican candidates enjoy a week before the election, this is an unlikely scenario.

Likelihood: 15%

Republicans Win the Senate:
For Republicans to know on November 5th that they will be in the majority in the Senate in the next Congress is more likely than Democrats knowing that THEY will be in the majority, but still not certain. For this to happen, with Louisiana still out, would mean that Republicans won three or more of the races listed above AND swept GA, KY and KS. With Republicans leading in polls in AR, CO, IA and AK, the first part of that equation is possible, but the second part is deicer. A possible scenario is Roberts wins Kansas, GA and LA go to runoffs. In this case, Republicans would have 51 and be in the majority regardless of the outcome of Georgia or Louisiana runoffs.

Likelihood: 40%

Majority Control is Unclear:
An equally likely scenario is that we still won't know who will control the Senate on the morning after the election. If current polling holds through Election Day, Republicans would hold KY and pick up CO, IA, AR and AK, Democrats would hold NH, MI and NC. KS and GA are both tied and LA is already headed to a runoff. That puts Republicans at 50 seats and Democrats would retain control with Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote when needed.

Likelihood: 45%

The permutations of which party Orman (and King) would caucus with, the results of runoffs, if any state switches from one side to the other in current polling (remember that ALL of these races are still within the margin of error) then we are in for an unpredictable Election Night where anything is possible the next morning.

The one thing you CAN count on is receiving the latest updates and analysis from BIPAC so your members and employees will have the most updated information possible.

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Senate Outlook - One Month Out

10/8/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

We are now 27 days out from the election and into the final stretch. Below is BIPAC's Senate Rankings for 2014, and today's EIS will focus on the current trajectory of the competitive races, including the Lean Republican, Toss Up and Lean Democrat.

Overview

Typically races move on or off the competitive playing field as the election cycle progresses, but this cycle has remained remarkably steady with the races that were thought to be competitive a year out still being the ones that are competitive less than a month out and with very few new races creeping into the competitive category. All of the races outlined below are still considered highly competitive, but some are beginning to drift one way or another and are designated as "lean" towards one party or the other.

Lean Republican

AR: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) has been on the list of most vulnerable Democrats for a while now, and not much is changing. Pryor is relatively well liked and his family has been involved in Arkansas politics for years, but Arkansas is a solidly red state now at the federal level. Romney won by 24 points in 2012 and Pyror is the only Democrat left in the federal delegation. Most polls have Rep. Tom Cotton (R) leading the race by an average four points, with Pryor stuck around 40% - bad numbers for an incumbent.

GA: Democrats fielded an impressive candidate in Michelle Nunn (D), who has given Republicans a competitive race in Georgia. However, now that the Republican primary is over and David Perdue (R) has coalesced the Republican base, he is starting to pull away in the polls and currently leads by about three points. While Perdue is leading, both candidates are still under 50%, and if neither get a majority of the vote, this race will go into a runoff on January 6th. Runoffs tend to favor Republicans, especially in a midterm election year, and depending how the other races flesh out on Election Day, this could be the race that decides the control of the Senate.

KY: Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) has been an impressive candidate, but Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) has double downed and with Pres. Obama's dismal approval ratings in this coal state, the race is looking less and less competitive as we head into October. Currently, McConnell leads on average by about five points, with his lead widening in the past few weeks. This is still a competitive race, but McConnell has the advantage in the home stretch.

LA: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) continues to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle. With no candidate in this race polling above 50%, it is likely the race will be decided in a runoff on December 6th. If Democrats hold the Senate, Landrieu will become Chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which Democrats hoped would give her an edge in this race. Cassidy however has run a good campaign and President Obama's approval rating in Louisiana is underwater. Control of the Senate may come down to the LA runoff, and in the runoff polling, Cassidy leads by about six points.

Toss Up

AK: Sen. Mark Begich (D) is faring better than some of his colleagues this cycle, but still faces an extremely competitive race against former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan. Polling in Alaska has been all over the place the past few months, with Begich and Sullivan both leading at one point or another. With a very late Republican primary over, Sullivan has begun his general election campaigning in full and is leading the polls by 3-6 points. However, polling in Alaska is notoriously difficult. This could go either way at this point.

CO: This is a tossup race that no one had on their radar a year ago, with Rep. Gory Gardner (R) entering the race in March. Since Gardner entered, polls showed him statistically tied with Sen. Mark Udall (D) and that has continued throughout the summer and into the final stretch. Pres. Obama won Colorado in 2012 by five points, but his approval ratings continue to drop, hurting Udall's chances. Gov. Hickenlooper (D) also faces a competitive election this cycle, which could further hurt Udall's reelection campaign. Expect this race to stay a tossup until the election.

IA: Since Joni Ernst (R) won the GOP nomination in June, this race has been a tossup. Democratic nominee Rep. Bruce Braley (D) has had trouble connecting with voters and like most other Democrats running this cycle, has had to distance himself from Pres. Obama's negative approval numbers in the state. He also does not have the advantage of incumbency, like several of the other Democratic candidates this cycle. Ernst has run a strong campaign and Republicans are hopeful that having popular Gov. Branstad (R) on the ticket as well will help her chances. Ernst currently leads Braley by an average of two points - still within the margin of error.

KS: Kansas has become the wild card race this election cycle. Sen. Pat Roberts (R) faces a surprisingly competitive general election after being damaged in the primary. The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, had little name ID or funds for the general election. He has been removed from the ballot, presenting a clear path for a challenge to Roberts by Independent candidate Greg Orman. Orman has affiliated with each party over the years and describes himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate. He has not indicated which party he would caucus with if elected. On average, Orman is leading Roberts in the polls by five points though Roberts and outside groups have just begun attacking Orman who had been running months of positive ads, so the race is expected to tighten as the attacks sink in with voters. Further complicating Roberts' reelection chances is Gov. Sam Brownback (R), who is also up for re-election this cycle and is losing support from the more moderate wing of the Republican Party in Kansas. This Senate race is currently a tossup and Roberts has become the most vulnerable Republican Senator this cycle.

Lean Democrat

MI: For the past few months, Rep. Gary Peters (D) has been leading in the polls against former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R). Michigan went for Pres. Obama in 2012 and is the only state Pres. Obama is visiting with a Senate race this fall, showing his national brand is not as damaged in Michigan as it is in other Senate states. Peters is up by an average of seven points and this seat is leaning in his favor.

NH: Carpet bagging attacks against former MA Senator Scott Brown (R) don't appear to be sticking and this race is getting closer and closer as we approach November. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) had a double digit lead in the summer, but now only leads by an average of five points. While NH is currently in the lean D column, it could soon be moved to toss up, if the poll numbers continue to tighten. Shaheen is well liked in the state, but Pres. Obama is underwater in NH and Brown is campaigning heavily on foreign policy, nationalizing the race. New Hampshire, more than any other state, has a tendency to sway with the political winds, going heavily Democratic in strong Democratic years and strongly Republican in good GOP years. If anyone could survive those powerful electoral winds, it would be Shaheen but the state's electoral tendencies run deep with the voters here.

NC: Once of the more vulnerable Senators running for re-election, Kay Hagan (D) has started to pull away from state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in the polls, and if this trend continues, will be favored for re-election. Tillis, coming from an unpopular legislative session, has been dropping in the polls, and his favorability ratings are less than Hagan, with only 36% of voters having a favorable view, compared to Hagan's 42%. The North Carolina race has turned into a lesser of two evils race, with Hagan currently in the lead.

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Top 10 Most Competitive Senate Races

8/20/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President of Political Affairs

With primary season almost complete and political campaigns nearing the final sprint to Election Day, it is a good time to review which races are most competitive heading into Labor Day. In the Senate, Republicans need to pick up six seats to win a majority and control both houses of Congress. The last three years of a divided Congress (Republicans controlling the House, Democrats controlling the Senate) has led to gridlock in Washington. The Congress can’t even muster the political fortitude or agreement to name Post Offices and bridges anymore, much less pass things like an annual budget or appropriations. The result is the lowest approval ratings of Congress in history. Dissatisfaction with Washington is at depths never measured since polling began tracking such things.

Three seats currently held by Democrats are highly likely to switch to Republican control. Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota are all Democratic held seats in very heavily Republican states with well-funded and well liked Republicans. So, with three seats “in the bag” for Republicans, they need three more to win control of the Senate. The most competitive seats where they will try to do that are:

TOSS-UPS

LOUISIANA
Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu is running against Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy and a handful of other candidates. Louisiana voted for Romney by 18 points and holds an open primary on Election Day with all candidates on the ballot regardless of party. If no candidate receives 50%, a runoff election is held in December between the top two finishers, again, regardless of party. Polls show Cassidy and Landrieu neck and neck, but both under 50%, meaning the two will likely face off in a December 5 runoff. Landrieu is one of the most pro-business Democrats in the Senate and as the chair of the Energy Committee has been supportive of the extensive oil and gas interests in Louisiana, giving her a boost. In a run-off scenario however, Landrieu would face an uphill struggle to turn out base Democrat voters in a non-traditional election time. There are fewer African Americans in the state as many were displaced after Hurricane Katrina and base Democrats who remain are disenchanted. Landrieu’s family’s political legacy and her ability to bring independent and some Republican crossover votes make this an enormously competitive race.

NORTH CAROLINA
Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan is facing Republican state house Speaker Thom Tillis in what has been the most expensive election to date. Outside groups have already spent over $15 million on this race with pledges of much more to come. This attests to the very close split in the campaign. Hagan has been much more adversarial to the business community than Pryor in Arkansas or Landrieu, but North Carolina is a true swing state and Democrats are much better organized than in Louisiana or Arkansas. The massive number of attack ads already aired has had the effect of diminishing both candidates severely and many North Carolina voters already view the election as a choice for the lesser of two evils as each candidate is highly unpopular and there is a much larger number of undecided voters than would be expected at this point in an election. Polling has the race neck and neck with each candidate in the low 40s.

ARKANSAS
Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Pryor faces a tough re-election bid in 2014. He is being challenged by freshman Rep. Tom Cotton. While Pryor is relatively well liked in Arkansas, President Obama’s approval numbers in the state are dismal. The state is trending red and went to 2012 GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney by over 20 points but has a solid history of electing Democrats to the Senate and Governorship. Both candidates are showing impressive fundraising numbers and polling on average, has Cotton up three points. However, taking on an incumbent is hard especially for a newcomer like Cotton against Pryor whose family has generations of elected service in the state. Pryor is typically considered a pro-business Democrat in the state though his support of Harry Reid has made it difficult for him to break from his party on many significant occasions. Cotton has frustrated the business community on a handful of occasions as well as he has aligned himself with Ted Cruz and other tea-party oriented groups that are not always supportive of a pro-growth agenda.

ALASKA
The fourth Democrat incumbent running in a state carried by Mitt Romney is Mark Begich, who won the seat following the indictment and scandal surrounding longtime Senator Ted Stevens (R). Begich is the former Mayor of Anchorage whose father was a leading political figure in the state until his death in a plane crash in the 70s. Begich is the first Democrat to win federal office in Alaska in over 30 years. He faces former Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan who won the GOP primary against Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and tea-party activist Joe Miller. Begich has run a disciplined campaign to date and has highlighted his work in bipartisan collaboration with fellow Alaska Senator Republican Lisa Murkowski. Murkowski has pushed back however, asking him not to mention her in his ads and if Begich pushes too far he could draw Murkowski further into the race, but in active opposition to him. Polling has the race neck and neck and Sullivan has done an admirable job of positioning himself as a practical, business oriented Republican.

COLORADO
Democratic Sen. Mark Udall looked to be safe in his re-election bid, until Rep. Cory Gardner jumped in the race in February. Once Gardner entered, polling soon showed the two candidates statistically tied. Colorado went to President Obama (D) in 2012 by six points. As is the trend nationally, Obama’s approval ratings have dropped significantly in Colorado, hurting Udall’s election chances for 2014. Gardner got a boost when Bob Beauprez won the GOP nomination for Governor making that a competitive seat as well rather than the highly controversial Tom Tancredo which would have forced a large amount of ticket splitting for Gardner to win. Udall was helped when the anti-fracking ballot initiatives were shelved recently. The ballot issues caused a huge rift between the business community and environmentalists, both of whom Udall needs to be successful and having them off the ballot means he will not have the difficult balancing act he had before. This race is generally seen as the barometer of whether Republicans will sweep a large number of seats or not. If Colorado goes Republican, it is probably an indication of a larger Republican wave. If it remains Democrat, it likely means the Democrats have held off the worst of the GOP attacks.

IOWA
Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is retiring, leaving an open seat for 2014. The Democrats quickly rallied around Congressman Bruce Braley, while the Republicans had several candidates compete for the nomination. State Sen. Joni Ernst overwhelmingly won the GOP primary, despite the crowded field and that created momentum that has carried her into one of the most competitive races in the country. Ernst has proven to be an impressive candidate and is running one of the most disciplined campaigns in the field this year. Even in the primary, she consolidated tea party supporters with more traditional business establishment support and that broad appeal has served her well. Braley is a standard issue Democrat and even though Iowa has tilted Democratic at the Presidential level the last few years, Braley has made a number of unforced errors including disparaging comments about farmers and senior Senator Charles Grassley who is highly popular in the state. Also helping Ernst’s prospects is the highly popular Governor Terry Branstand running for reelection who has made high turnout amongst Republicans a priority. Branstand is close to Ernst and is putting the full force of his political organization to work to support her election. Polling at this point shows a dead even race.

LEAN REPUBLICAN

KENTUCKY
Republican Leader Mitch McConnell faces a competitive race from Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell also had a primary challenger, but McConnell's superior fundraising and organizational capacity left him little to worry about. The real competitive race is the general, and this is one of the Democrat’s two opportunities to pick up a seat in 2014. Current polling has the race very close despite the outsized Republican performance in Kentucky at the Presidential level. McConnell is known for his fundraising and campaign prowess, but Grimes is holding her own and even recently outraised the Senator. Grimes, 35, has a political pedigree in the state and has proven her ability to win statewide in the Republican heavy state as she currently serves as Secretary of State. The position, as in most states, is administrative and she hasn’t had to take any difficult votes and is attempting to position herself outside of the Obama administration, which is highly unpopular in the state, especially in the coal producing areas. McConnell, meanwhile, is the embodiment of “Republicans in Washington” as the Senate GOP leader, and has served as Senator for almost 30 years in a year when members of Congress generically are literally held in lower esteem than Darth Vader.

GEORGIA
Republican business executive David Perdue, former CEO of Reebok and Dollar General Stores, won a crowded and hard fought GOP primary and will take on Democrat Michelle Nunn in this open seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss. While Georgia hasn’t voted for a Democrat for Governor or Senator in over a decade and the state went solidly for Romney in 2012, Democrats are hoping Nunn can draw on the goodwill towards her father, former Senator Sam Nunn who is still very highly regarded in the state, as well as the fact that she has no voting record to pick apart. She will attempt to paint Perdue as a Romney-like corporate raider but in a Republican leaning state in a Republican leaning year, the odds are with Perdue. Ironically, Perdue can demonstrate his independence from the corporate world thanks to a high profile spat with the US Chamber of Commerce during the primary.

LEAN DEMOCRAT

MICHIGAN
This open seat features Democrat Congressman Gary Peters against Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. The state went for Obama by 10 points in 2012 but has a Republican Governor, Republican Legislature and a majority of its Congressional seats are Republican. When Land was elected Secretary of State, it was with the highest percentage of the vote of any Republican running statewide in recent history. She also has the ability to partly self-fund the campaign and has already put in over $2 million of her own money. Union groups in the state, especially autoworkers, are furious with Governor Rick Snyder for passing Right to Work legislation last year and have vowed an all-out voter mobilization and turnout effort that would benefit Peters should it materialize. While every state tends to see non-Presidential year electorates that are slightly older and less minority than Presidential year turnouts, this is especially pronounced in Michigan for some reason, giving Republicans an almost even playing field in off-year elections as opposed to Presidential year turnout. Peters has still been able to maintain some lead in the polls and the Democratic tilt of the state make it an uphill climb for Land though it is a race both parties are heavily invested in.

MINNESOTA
Republican business executive Mike McFadden is taking on Democrat incumbent Al Franken. Franken has been a reliably Democratic vote, sometimes at the expense of home state interests but has proven himself to be a serious policy maker who gets the job done for his constituents. McFadden is an attractive candidate with the ability to raise substantial financial resources. Franken won in 2008 by less than 1000 votes but polls to date show him with a consistent lead but still with less than 50% of the vote and Obama with a surprisingly weak approval rating in the state.

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Kansas, Michigan, Missouri & Washington Primary Recaps

8/6/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Director of Political Affairs

BIPAC Action Fund Endorsed Candidate Results

Senate:
*    MI: Terri Lynn Land Advanced to General Election

House:
*    MI-3: Brian Ellis: Lost Primary
*    MI-11: Dave Trott: Advanced to General Election

Kansas

Senate:

Senator Pat Roberts (R) will be back in the Senate for a fourth term after defeating his primary challenger radiologist Milton Wolf.   Wolf, backed by Tea Party groups such as the Senate Conservatives Fund, had a campaign plagued with scandal, after he posted x-rays of his patients on Facebook. Roberts, however, had his own campaign issues to deal with, more specifically the criticism that he lives in Virginia. He owns a home in Kansas, but leases it out. Roberts is safe in the general election.

House:

KS-1: Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R) easily beat back a primary challenge from Alan LaPolice, a former school superintendent. Huelskamp, a Tea Party favorite, took heat from the agriculture and ethanol industries in Kansas for his recent policy standings. Huelskamp is favored in the general.

KS-4: Rep. Mike Pompeo (R) beat back a challenge from former Congressman Todd Tiahart. Pompeo had a cash advantage and was leading in the polls up to the election. Tiahart, who had endorsed Pompeo in his previous Congressional races, was running to Pompeo's left in the election, a rare occurrence in GOP primaries. Pompeo received the backing of Koch Industries, the Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity. This is a safe Republican seat and Pompeo is expected to easily win the general.

Michigan

Senate:

Rep. Gary Peters (D) and former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) faced no primary opposition in their Senate bids to succeed retiring Senator Carl Levin (D). As such, they have been campaigning for the general election for weeks now. Michigan went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012, and Peters has been leading in the polls, however BIPAC Action Fund endorsed candidate Land has proved to be a serious candidate and this will be an extremely competitive race.

House:

MI-1: Congressman Dan Benishek (R) had a primary challenger, but the competitive race in this district is the general. Benishek handily defeated Tea Party candidate Alan Arcand on Tuesday. He now faces Jerry Cannon (D), a former county sheriff and retired Army Major General, in what could shape up to be a race to watch.

MI-3: Rep. Justin Amash (R) staved off a primary challenge from businessman Brian Ellis. Amash, a Tea Party darling in the House, was one of the few Republicans whose primary challenger was endorsed by business groups, such as BIPAC and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Amash had help from Tea Party groups, such as the Club for Growth, and the advantage of a primary electorate on his side. He is safe in the general.

MI-4: State Sen. John Moolenaar won the GOP nomination to succeed Rep. Dave Camp (R). Moolenaar was endorsed by both Rep. Camp and Tea Party groups, including the Tea Party Express. Paul Mitchell self-funded his campaign. The race was tight up to Election Day, with the candidates close in the polls. This is a safe Republican seat and Moolenaar will be the next Congressman.

MI-8: Former State Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R) and Ingham County Treasurer Eric Schertzing will be vying to succeed retiring Rep. Mike Rogers (R) in the general election. Bishop was backed by Rep. Rogers and is favored in the general election, but this is still a race to watch.

MI-11: Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R) becomes the next incumbent to fall in the primary season. He had a competitive primary on his hands this year, after being dubbed an accidental candidate in 2012, when Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) failed to qualify for the ballot. This year, the BIPAC Action Fund endorsed candidate Dave Trott in challenging Bentivolio. As expected, he beat Bentivolio. Trott also had the backing of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Michigan Chamber of Commerce, Detroit Regional Chamber and Michigan Farm Bureau. Trott will face Bobby McKenzie in the general election. Trott starts with the advantage.

MI-12: Debbie Dingell (D) has been the heir apparent to the open seat of her husband, Rep. John Dingell(D), for some time, and it is now official. Dingell is a Democratic strategist, former GM executive and chairwoman of the Wayne State University board of governors. She faces nominal opposition in November.

MI-14: Four Democrats ran in this race to succeed retiring Rep. Gary Peters (D) with Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence winning the nomination. This is a solid Democratic district and Lawrence will be the next Congressman.

Missouri

There were no competitive primaries in Missouri, and no competitive general election races.

Washington

House:

WA 4: Rep. Doc Hastings (R) is retiring, giving another Republican a chance to hold this seat. Eight Republicans ran for the seat, along with two Democrats and two independents. Washington is one of the few states that does all mail ballots for elections, and the top two vote getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election. Two Republicans, former state Agriculture Commissioner Dan Newhouse and Clint Didier, a former NFL player advanced to the general. Newhouse was the frontrunner going into the primary, as well as the establishment choice, and will continue to have the edge for November.

WA-1: Tea Party oriented Robert Sutherland edged Microsoft Executive Pedro Celis (R) to challenge Rep. Suzan DelBene (D) in November. Celis was one of four Republican candidates vying for the nomination and was considered the best shot for Republicans to make this race competitive. DelBene is favored to return to Congress.

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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections. By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief. The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin. The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate. Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school. That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor. However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents. It is a revealing test for both. It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns. This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics: the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections. So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare. Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated. In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better. Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader. This is going to change the campaign dynamics. Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem. Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans. Neither number is particular good. However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago. For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise. That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina. Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership. GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision. Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa. Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley. Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job." If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left. In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House. In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held. There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats. All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed. We will keep you posted.

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BIPAC Action Fund - US House Endorsement Recaps

7/16/2014

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By Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

Like last week when we reviewed endorsed candidates for US Senate, we urge BIPAC members to support Action Fund endorsed candidate for US House as well. In each case, candidates met all of the following criteria:

Candidate has demonstrated a strong inclination towards working constructively with the business community to grow the economy, create jobs and support private sector growth.
The race is highly competitive and support of the business community could be decisive.
The candidate has had a personal meeting with a BIPAC Senior Staff person or Board member.
There is broad consensus amongst national business organizations, our state partner representing local businesses, BIPAC's Board of Directors and members with operations in the target state or district.

These are all pro-business candidates in races that need and deserve your support to ensure a pro-growth, pro-private sector oriented Congress. If your PAC and senior leadership has not contributed in these races, we would strongly encourage you to do so.

US House of Representatives
(in alphabetical order)

Don Beyer (D-VA 8): Advanced to general election
Don Beyer won the Democratic nomination for the open seat in this safe Democratic district.   Beyer, former Lieutenant Governor and car dealership owner, faced several candidates in the primary. He demonstrated a welcomed propensity to working with the business community to solve problems and grow the economy during his time as Lt. Governor. www.friendsofdonbeyer.com

Mike Bost (R-IL 12): Advanced to general election
State Rep. Mike Bost is running to unseat freshman Rep. Bill Enyart (D). This is a competitive race with the district being split pretty evenly between Democrat and Republican. Bost has a background in small business, having worked for Bost Trucking, owned by his father and uncle. He has a 79% (2011-2012) and 100% (2009-2008) rating from the Illinois Chamber of Commerce Legislative Ratings. www.bostforcongress.com

Bradley Byrne (R-AL 1): Won special election
Byrne won the special election to replace Rep. Jo Bonner (R) and is now the Congressman from the 1st district. Bradley Byrne (R) is a business attorney and former state legislator and was tasked as CEO of the state's two year college system with reforming the system and restructuring its financial underpinnings. www.byrneforcongress.com

Buddy Carter (R-GA 1): Runoff election, July 22
State Senator Buddy Carter is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Jack Kingston (R). Carter is in the runoff with Bob Johnson, a surgeon and Veteran.   Buddy, a pharmacist and businessman, has an A+ legislative rating from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce. Bob Johnson is running as the tea party oriented candidate, and has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund and the Club for Growth. Johnson, known to put his foot in his month, recently said "I'd rather see another terrorist attack, truly I would, than to give up my liberty as an American citizen," referring to TSA screenings. Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement. Carter was also endorsed by the US Chamber. www.buddycarterforcongress.com

Mike Coffman (R-CO 6): Advanced to general election
Rep. Mike Coffman faces a competitive general election with Democratic nominee, former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. This toss up race is a top Democratic target for 2014. Coffman is a good business ally in the House and scored 95% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record. During Romanoff's campaign for US Senate last election, he positioned himself distinctly to the left of current Democratic Senator Michael Bennett and actively opposed many key priorities of the Colorado business community. This is one of the most competitive districts in the country and one of the clearest distinctions between a pro-jobs, pro-prosperity consensus building candidate in Coffman and a hard left avowed opponent of the business community. www.coffmanforcongress.com

Mike Collins (R-GA 10): Runoff election, July 22
Mike Collins is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Paul Broun (R). Mike Collins came in second place in the primary election and faces a runoff with Baptist Pastor and radio talk show host Jody Hice, who garnered 34% of the vote. Hice, who has been endorsed by the Tea Party Leadership Fund PAC and Citizens United Political Victory Fund, has stated a number of positions opposed by local, state and national business organizations. Hice is also the founder and President of Ten Commandments - Georgia, Inc., which describes itself as a "grassroots organization committed to the task of locating, educating, and motivating citizens to acknowledge God through knowing, obeying, and displaying the Ten Commandments." Collins, a businessman, owns and runs a trucking company and has gained the support of the business community.   Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement. www.overhauldc.com

Barbara Comstock (R-VA 10): Advanced to general election
Delegate Barbara Comstock won GOP nomination in this competitive open seat. Comstock faced conservative firebrand, state Delegate Bob Marshall. Comstock has a 95% rating from the Virginia Chamber 2013 Legislative Scorecard and is gaining broad national and local GOP and business support for her nomination. In the general, Comstock faces Democratic nominee Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust. The district has a slight Republican edge, and went to Romney by 1 point in 2012 and Obama by 3 points in 2008. Comstock is supported by the National Association of Manufacturers, the US Chamber of Commerce, and many BIPAC members. www.barbaracomstockforcongress.com

Carlos Curbelo (R-FL 26): Primary, August 26
Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo is challenging Rep. Joe Garcia (D) in this toss up race. While the general election is expected to be highly competitive, Curbelo also has to make it through a GOP primary. Curbelo is the frontrunner, and has been endorsed by Jeb Bush, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and most of the Miami area business community. www.carloscurbelo.com

Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL 13): Advanced to general election
Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis (R) won the GOP primary and is now in a competitive general election race. He won with less than 1% of the vote in the 2012 general election. This is a swing district that went to President Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. Currently serving on the Agriculture and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, Davis has been a consistent business ally. Davis is also endorsed by the US Chamber and the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and other Illinois business entities encouraged the BIPAC Action Fund's endorsement. www.ElectRodney.com

Carl DeMaio (R-CA 52): Advanced to general election
Carl DeMaio (R), a former city councilman and mayoral candidate, is a formidable challenger to freshman Rep. Scott Peters (D).   The two made it out of California's top two primary and will be competing in November.   DeMaio is gaining the support of the California business community and this race is expected to be extremely competitive. www.carldemaio.com

Bob Dold (R-IL 10): Advanced to general election
Former Rep. Bob Dold is challenging Rep. Brad Schneider (D). This is a rematch from the 2012 race where Dold lost to Schneider by less than 3,500 votes. Rep. Dold scored 82% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record while Schneider has not been a friend during his time in Congress. BIPAC's state partner, the Illinois Chamber of Commerce has also endorsed Dold. www.doldforcongress.com

Brian Ellis (R-MI 3): Primary, August 5
Businessman Brian Ellis is challenging Tea Party Rep. Justin Amash in the Republican Primary. Amash has not been a friend to the business community, especially for his part in the Tea Party led government shutdown and efforts to default on federal debt. He also opposed a balanced budget amendment and the Keystone XL pipeline. Ellis has a business and financial services background and the backing of the Grand Rapids business community and the Michigan Chamber of Commerce. This race represents the business community taking an important symbolic stand in favor of pro-business candidates when they mount a primary challenge to non-business oriented candidates. www.ellis4congress.com

David Jolly (R-FL 13): Won special election
David Jolly won the competitive open seat to replace former Congressman Bill Young (R). This swing district voted for a Republican congressman but went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012. David Jolly (R) ran against former chief financial officer Alex Sink (D). Jolly, a government affairs professional and former chief counsel to Young, was supported by the local business community and The Florida Chamber of Commerce, BIPAC's state partner, and several of our national association member. www.DavidJolly.com

Ted Lieu (D-CA 33): Advanced to general election
State Senator Ted Lieu is running in the open seat to replace retiring Rep. Waxman. This seat is heavily Democratic and Lieu's candidacy provides an opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business Democrat. Lieu has received the official endorsement of the Democratic Party and a number of business leaders in the district are supporting Lieu. www.tedlieu.com

Alex Mooney (R-WV 2): General election
Former Maryland State Senator Alex Mooney is running in the West Virginia 2nd Congressional District seat being vacated by Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R). The Democratic nominee is Nick Casey, former Chairman of the WV Democratic Party and a major trial attorney in the state. Mooney has garnered the support of the business community in West Virginia based on his service in Maryland as well as the openly adversarial positions adopted by Casey. Mooney has consolidated support from a wide array of Republican groups, including the NRCC Young Guns program and the Senate Conservatives Fund. www.mooneyforcongress.com

Doug Ose (R-CA 7): Advanced to general election
Former Congressman Doug Ose (R) is running in the 7th district, challenging Rep. Ami Bera (D). Ose previously served three terms in the House, first elected in 1998. This is one of the most highly competitive general election races in the country. Ose is supported by the California Prosperity Project and the California Business Roundtable as well as several BIPAC members in the district. www.dougose.com

Colin Peterson (D-MN 7): Primary, August 12
Rep. Colin Peterson is running for re-election in a tough race. A member of the Blue Dog Coalition, he was first elected in 1990 and is currently the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee. Peterson scored 86% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record. www.petersonforcongress.com

Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID 2): Advanced to general election
Mike Simpson is the Republican incumbent running for re-election to his ninth term. He has been a strong supporter of the business community throughout his tenure in the House. Rep. Simpson has a perfect BIPAC voting record of 100% and sits on the House Appropriations Committee. Simpson was challenged in the Republican primary by tea party candidate and attorney Bryan Smith (R), but easily defeated him.   Simpson is safe in the general. www.simpsonforcongress.com

Eric Swalwell (D-CA 15): Advanced to general election
Freshman Rep. Eric Swalwell is running for re-election. In 2012, Swalwell defeated incumbent Rep. Pete Stark (D) in the general election. During his brief tenure in Congress, Swalwell has impressed the business community in California and nationally for his willingness to seek consensus solutions and actively bring all sides together for productive legislation. Many BIPAC members with operations in the district are strongly supporting Swalwell's reelection. www.swalwellforcongress.com

Richard Tisei (R-MA 6): Primary, September 9
Former State Senator Richard Tisei is challenging Rep. John Tierney (D) in a rematch of the 2012 race. The 6th district is Democratic at the Presidential level but was carried by Republicans for Senate and Governor. Tierney barely won in 2012 and remains vulnerable after past ethics troubles. Tierney scored 4% on BIPAC's 112th Congress Voting record and is not a business friendly candidate. Tierney also faces a primary challenger, veteran Seth Moulton in a late primary which make this an even better opportunity to replace him with a business-oriented advocate. www.tiseiforcongress.com

Andy Tobin (R-AZ 1): Primary, August 26
House Speaker Andy Tobin is looking to unseat Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D). This is a tossup seat that Kirkpatrick lost in her 2010 reelection bid and won back in 2012. Tobin is a small business owner who has the backing of the local business community, such as the Arizona Restaurant Association. Other Republican candidates include State Rep. Adam Kwasman, and rancher Gary Kiehne. www.andytobin.com

Dave Trott (R-MI 11): Primary, August 5
Businessman Dave Trott is challenging Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in the Republican primary. Bentivolio is a self-proclaimed tea party candidate who is not a friend of the business community. He did note vote to reopen the government during the shutdown. Trott has a business background and has created and saved 1,800 jobs in southeast Michigan. Trott has gained the backing of the business community, including the US Chamber of Commerce and our state partner, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce. He has also recently gained the endorsement of Mitt Romney. www.trottforcongress.com

David Valadao (R-CA 21): Advanced to general election
Rep. Valadao is a House freshman running for re-election. Valadao is a Republican sitting in a district that President Obama (D) won by 11 points in 2012. Amanda Renteria (D), former Chief of Staff for Senator Stabenow is challenging Valadao. The 21st district is known for its farming and agriculture, especially dairy, and Valadao has a solid background in dairy farming, as a managing partner of Valadao Dairy, which he started with his brothers. A friend to the business community, Valadao has previously been endorsed by BIPAC. The endorsement is supported by virtually all BIPAC members with California operations, as well as the Cal Chamber and California Prosperity Project. www.valadaoforcongress.com

Lee Zeldin (R-NY 1): Advanced to general election
State Senator Lee Zeldin is running in New York's 1st Congressional District against Rep. Tim Bishop (D). In the primary, he faced and beat self-financing right wing candidate George Demos. Zeldin has the support of the state and local business community based on his leadership in the State Legislature where he has chaired the committee that deals with most business issues. In the general election, Zeldin faces Congressman Tim Bishop who scored 13% and 20% on BIPAC's 112th and 111th Voting Records, respectively, and is facing an FBI investigation into influence peddling. Zeldin has a 90% rating from The Business Council of New York State 2012 Voters' Guide and is a member of the NRCC Young Guns program. This is a competitive race, in an R+2 district. Bishop won by 4% in 2012. www.zeldinforcongress.com

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BIPAC Action Fund Endorsements: AL, GA Runoffs & Senate Candidates

7/9/2014

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By Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

This week's EIS focuses on the BIPAC Action Fund endorsed candidates. Four endorsed candidates in Alabama and Georgia are in crucial runoff elections taking place in July. We are also recapping our list of endorsed Senate candidates to date. In the following weeks we will focus on our endorsed candidates in the House. BIPAC has actively worked with our members with operations in the states, with other business organizations and with the business community on the ground in the states, so the endorsed candidates are very much the consensus choice of businesses in the states. We strongly encourage all of our members to make these candidates a priority.

Upcoming runoffs: AL, GA

Alabama: July 15

In the 6th district, BIPAC endorsed candidate State Rep. Paul DeMarco is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Spencer Bachus (R). DeMarco is in a runoff with Gary Palmer, Alabama Policy Institute co-founder. Palmer has been endorsed by the Club for Growth. DeMarco has an average rating of 95% from the Alabama NFIB, showing his commitment to the business community.

Georgia: July 22

There are three runoffs that the business community should get involved in - the Senate race, 1st district and 10th district. In the Senate, BIPAC endorsed candidate Rep. Jack Kingston (R) faces businessman Dave Perdue. The winner of the runoff faces Michelle Nunn (D), in what is expected to be a competitive race. In the 1st district, BIPAC endorsed candidate Buddy Carter (R) is running in Kingston's open seat, against Bob Johnson. Carter, a businessman, has the support of the local business community and an A+ rating from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce while Johnson is running on tea party principles. The 10th district has a similar dynamic, with the business community rallying around BIPAC endorsed candidate Mike Collins (R). Collins has a small business background in the trucking industry and is running against Pastor Jody Hice, another tea party oriented candidate.

BIPAC Senate Endorsements

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito easily won the GOP nomination for the open Senate seat. Capito scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record. She faces Democratic nominee Secretary of State Natalie Tennant in the general election. Polling shows Capito with a double digit lead, making this seat a prime opportunity to move from adverse to business as it was when held by Rockefeller to pro-business as it would be with Capito. www.capitoforsenate.com

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican

In one of the most competitive GOP primaries this cycle, Sen. Thad Cochran survived a runoff election with state Senator Chris McDaniel. Senator Cochran scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and has a long history as a champion of free markets and working towards a pro-growth economic climate. McDaniel was a Tea Party candidate backed by conservative groups such as Club for Growth. Cochran now faces former Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the general election, but is expected to hold his seat. www.ThadForMississippi.com

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican

Senator Cornyn easily won his primary election back in March. He faced several primary opponents, including Rep. Steve Stockman. Cornyn has been a consistent business champion and is being uniformly supported by the business community in Texas and around the country. Cornyn faces minimal opposition from David Alameel (D) in the general election. www.JohnCornyn.com

Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Leans Republican

Rep. Daines is running against Senator John Walsh (D) in a competitive general election. Walsh was appointed to the seat in February, after Senator Baucus (D) resigned to become Ambassador to China. Daines is a pro-business candidate who was been endorsed by BIPAC and the U.S. Chamber in 2012 when running for the at large Congressional seat and has proven to be a strong advocate for the business community during his time in the House. Daines offers the best chance to make this seat reliably pro-business in its orientation. www.stevedaines.com

Joni Ernst (R-IA): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up

State Senator Joni Ernst earned the GOP nomination with 56% of the vote, avoiding a nominating convention. She now faces Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in what is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Ernst has earned 100% on the Iowa Prosperity Project's 2011 State Senate voting record and 90% on the 2012 State Senate voting record. She has consolidated support within Iowa's business community over the last month and has attracted support from across the ideological spectrum. www.joniforiowa.com

Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up

Rep. Cory Gardner is challenging incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D). Gardner easily won the Republican nomination and has been a friend to the business community in the House. There are few races featuring a greater contrast between the candidates in terms of their orientation towards supporting pro-growth economic policies. Gardner scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and is working closely with employers in Colorado to expand their operations and create a more comfortable operating environment. Polling shows this race to be a toss-up at this point, so your engagement is important. www.corygardnerforsenate.com

Terri Lynn Land (R-MI): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up

Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is running against Rep. Gary Peters (D) for the Michigan open Senate seat. While Michigan went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012, this race is considered a tossup. Polls have the two candidates within 2-5 points from one another. Land has shown impressive fundraising to date and her record as Secretary of State, personal interviews, and history managing a family real estate development company in Michigan has shown her to be a friend of business. She is strongly supported by many of Michigan's leading employers and is the very clear choice of the business community in Michigan. Rep. Peters scored only 8% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record. www.terrilynnland.com

Rep. James Lankford (R-OK): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican

Rep. James Lankford won the Republican nomination for the open Senate special election to replace Sen. Coburn (R) and is now most likely going to be the next Senator from Oklahoma. The Republican primary was the competitive race, with several candidates running, including state House Speaker T.W. Shannon. Lankford scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Prosperity Project voting record. www.jameslankford.com

Thom Tillis (R-NC): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up

State House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) won the primary election with over 40% of the vote, avoiding a potentially damaging runoff. Tillis is challenging Senator Kay Hagan (D) in the general. Tillis was the preferred GOP nominee, due to his consistent record supporting economic growth and job creation in the state legislature. Hagan consistently scores less than 40% on leading business organization legislative scorecards. This race is currently a toss-up, and a great opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business candidate. www.ThomTillis.com

Rep. Jack Kingston (R- GA): Runoff election, July 22
BIPAC Rating: Lean Republican

Rep. Jack Kingston in running in the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R). Kingston is in a runoff with businessman Dave Perdue. Kingston has a solid business record, scoring an 87% average on BIPAC's Prosperity Project voting records, 85% on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's cumulative voting record and 86% on NAM's 112th Congress voting record. Whoever advances out of the runoff faces a credible Democratic opponent in Michelle Nunn (D). This could shape up to be a very competitive race in the general. www.jackkingston.org

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AP: "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...

U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."

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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out. Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:

May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.

The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding. As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today.

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors: retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.

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Social Media and the 2014 Midterm Elections

7/2/2014

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By Jason Langsner, Director, New Media and Communications

Pew Research's Internet and American Life Project's most recent "Social Media Update" tells us that 73% of online adults are now using social media and Facebook is the dominant network. We've all heard the data on Facebook usage: 802 million daily active users globally and 1.28 billion users logging in at least once a month.

That is a lot of people.

BIPAC is running an ad campaign on Facebook to influence American potential voters with our pro-prosperity message. Our ad targets approximately 175 million Americans who are 18+ on Facebook.

That is a lot of potential voters.

You can't say something about Facebook and an organization's social strategy these days, without quickly following it up with Twitter. 500 million tweets are sent each and every day, on average, by Twitter's 255 million users who log in at least once a month. That is 5,787 tweets a second. Not all of them are about kittens and pop music. Politics is one of the trending topics across Twitter.

23% of Twitter users are American, which is about 58.7 million people (or about 1/3 of the reach of Facebook). Still a lot of people. Especially if you consider that in the last midterm elections, in 2010, 90.7 million ballots were counted across the United States. So a candidate or political organization can reach a large percentage of potential voters by pushing content across social media, listening to potential voters, being responsive to constituents and potential voters online, presenting geo-targeted and personalized ads, and creating their own narrative by being self-publishers. It is more than a 21st century direct mail program because it is a two-way form of communication.
Similar to what BIPAC is doing on Facebook, we are also presenting ads on Twitter with a goal to influence potential 18+ voters. But an ad strategy is far from a social strategy. A true social strategy is based on content, listening to your audience, a sharing strategy, and participating in broader topical conversations. The root is "social" for a reason...

I use our online political advocacy work purely to set the stage for what we are seeing with a lot of creative digital campaign work by the BIPAC Action Fund's endorsed candidates. And in this blog post, I wanted to share with you some data from what we've seen in the primaries and what we expect in the general.

Of all online adults, the following approximate demographics are on Facebook and Twitter (according to the aforementioned Pew study's sample size):

Therefore, a campaign's social strategy isn't just put in place to reach out to young voters.

The power of social media and real-time reporting additionally provides organizations like ours and yours with intelligence that wasn't easily attainable 10 years ago about how candidates are reaching these voting blocks.

Comparing how many followers Candidate A has compared to Candidate B doesn't really tell us much. But comparing and contrasting how "influential" Campaign A is compared to Campaign B is across all of social media tells us a great deal of information about how they are connecting with potential voters.

Case-in-point, Eric Cantor's campaign primary channels on social media (e.g. Facebook and Twitter) had 404,901 followers as of this past weekend. Dave Brat's had 22,744. Brat won the primary with 36,110 votes as compared to Eric Cantor's 28,898 votes. The gap of 404.9k to 22.7k shrinks considerably after the vote if you ask yourself how many of the 400k-plus live in Virginia's 7th district (NOTE - the district has a total population of 758k) v how many live elsewhere. It is the difference between data and intelligence. What I find more telling is how influential those channels are across social media. That provides a better litmus test of how well they are being received in their district/state as-well-as across the broader political spectrum. Cantor's campaign channels scored a 73/100 on Klout while Brat's scored a 70/100. Both strong numbers. And pretty much identical. This is telling. The campaigns online influence was essentially equal as of our pulling of the data on Klout.com. And we all know who outspent who and by how much. Again, an ad strategy is not a content strategy. Content and the message is king - and as BIPAC preaches, the messenger and the trust that they have with the potential audience is critically important.

A second piece of intelligence we can glean from social media is looking at the sentiment of the conversation revolving around a candidate online. Let's look at the Mississippi Senate Runoff - for instance. Thad Cochran won the runoff. And a lot is being said about it in media. Unfortunately, not a lot is being said about our industry's efforts to Get Out the Vote. It wasn't just Democrats voting in a Republican primary... But I'll leave that kind of analysis up to BIPAC's Political Affairs department. What, I will add to the storyline is that for every one negative thing said about the BIPAC endorsed Thad Cochran on social media over the last 30 days, there have been 28 positive or neutral things said about the senior Mississippi Senator (according to SocialMention.com data). Like the VA-07 example, McDaniel had about 14k more followers on social media than Cochran but they were pretty much equally influential across social media. And this 28:1 favorability of all dialogue on social media tells us a great deal. Any brand would want that. The sentiment around the "Chris McDaniel" brand was 13:1 favorable.

I've prepared some data on each of the BIPAC U.S. Senate endorsed candidates below. It looks at their following and how influential they are on social media. It also compares that against their primary challenger (if one existed or if it was a crowded field, I choose the individual who received the second most votes) and their general opponent. Lastly it looks at how many votes they received in the primary.