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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Primary Results in ME, NV, ND, SC & VA

6/11/2014

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House Majority Leader Eric Cantor defeated by conservative challenger

VA-7: In a huge upset yesterday, Randolph-Macon economics Professor David Brat defeated GOP House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, 56% to 44%.  Turnout in the 7th district was low, around 12%.  Though Brat was Cantor's most serious opponent in over a decade, Cantor was expected to easily defeat him on Tuesday, according to the polls.  Cantor did not take this challenge lightly; attacking Brat after his candidacy was announced.  With low campaign funds,  Brat relied on conservative activists such as radio talk show host Laura Ingraham to get out his message and attack Cantor on voting to end the government shutdown, raising the debt ceiling and, especially, his support for immigration reform.  Brat faces Democratic nominee Jack Trammell, who is also a professor at Randolph-Macon College, in the general.  This is a conservative district, but depending on the quality of the candidates, could become a race to watch.

The results for the remainder of Tuesday's primaries are below. 

BIPAC Endorsed Candidate Results
  • ME- 2: Kevin Raye: Lost Primary
  • VA-8: Don Beyer: Won Primary
  • VA-10: Barbara Comstock: Won Firehouse Primary (April)
Maine

House

ME-2: Rep. Mike Michaud (D) is running for Governor, which set up competitive primaries for the Democrats and Republicans in the 2nd district.  The Democratic primary was a fight between a progressive rising star, state Sen. Emily Cain and a socially conservative, pro-union candidate, state Sen. Troy Jackson.  Cain had a slight edge going into the primary and won with over 70% of the vote.  On the Republican side, BIPAC endorsed candidate Kevin Raye, a businessman-state Senator and former state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin faced off for the nomination.  Poliquin won with 56% of the vote.  This blue collar district has a slight Democratic edge, but it still expected to be competitive in the general.  

Nevada

House

NV-3: Democratic National Committeewoman and political consultant Erin Bilbray (D) is now the official nominee to take on Rep. Joe Heck (R) in the general election.  This will be Nevada's closest watched race in 2014, though Heck is currently favored.

NV-4: Assemblyman Cresent Hardy won the Republican nomination in the district.  The 4th district has the potential to become competitive, if the political environment continues to trend in the Republican's favor, but for now Rep. Steven Horsford (D) is sitting comfortably.

North Dakota

House

At-large: Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) had no primary opposition and his at-large seat is safe in the general.  
South Carolina

Senate

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) was able to avoid a runoff yesterday, receiving over 50% of the vote.  Graham was an early target for Tea Party groups because of his support of issues such as immigration reform.  While he faced six challengers in the Republican primary, none of them were able to gain traction or raise the funds necessary to take on Graham.  Graham also had the support of establishment Republican groups, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  Graham is not expected to have a tough general election race.  

House

There are no competitive primaries or general elections in the Congressional delegation.

Virginia

Senate

Ed Gillespie, former Republican National Committee chairman and lobbyist, won the Republican Senate nomination this past Saturday at a party convention. Gillespie was the most credible Republican challenger to Sen. Mark Warner (D), though he still has a long way to go to make this race competitive.  His fundraising numbers have been impressive, but polling still gives the advantage to Warner.

House

VA-8: With Rep. Jim Moran (D) retiring, seven Democrats were vying for the nomination in this safe Democrat seat.  BIPAC endorsed candidate Don Beyer, a former Lieutenant Governor and car dealership owner, won the nomination with 46% of the vote.  Beyer had been the frontrunner in the race since he entered and is favored to be the next Congressman from the 8th district.  

VA 10: The nominees for the open seat due to Rep. Frank Wolf's (R) retirement were decided back in March and April.  BIPAC endorsed candidate, state Delegate Barbara Comstock won the Republican nomination in a firehouse primary, beating back conservative firebrand, state Delegate Bob Marshall.  Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust became the official Democratic nominee in March when he was the only candidate to file.   This will be a competitive general election and one that the business community should pay attention to.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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"An Imperial Majority Leader?"   

5/28/2014

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by Gregory S. Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC
The Hill
I start every day with a cup of coffee and a review of the news, which these days comes in a dizzying array of formats.   After more than forty years laboring in the policy and political vineyards, lobbying state legislatures, working campaigns, staffing Capitol Hill offices, serving as an elected officer of Congress and designing all manner of corporate civic engagement, few things strike me as new or compelling.  However, the headline of a story by Alexander Bolton on the front page of The Hill on May 21 asks a provocative question, "An imperial majority leader?"  

Bolton says, "Congressional experts say the Nevada Democrat has used more strong-arm tactics than his predecessors, has a firm grip on his Democratic colleagues and has played a major role in changing the once-collegial Senate."  Bolton calls Reid the "most powerful Senate majority leader in history." It is a jolting statement backed up with plenty of hard evidence. 

This is something those who lobby Congress probably can't say.  Some just don't think the issue resonates with voters anyway.  Democrats who think it is true won't say it publicly.  Some are just afraid.  But as one who spends time every week in some place other than Washington, it is being whispered by just about everyone, just about everywhere.  The Senate Majority Leader is developing an insurmountable credibility gap with the American people that makes him a political liability to his own party and a glaring example of the arrogant partisanship the public hates.  More importantly he seems increasingly unwilling or incapable of leading the Senate in a constructive way.

This is less a partisan issue than a practical one.  A dysfunctional Senate undermines progress on issues of importance to business like trade, taxes, immigration, and energy and prevents Congress from enforceable oversight of the regulatory excess of this Administration.  

I once worked in the office of the Senate Majority Leader.  I know how difficult the job can be.  Trent Lott once called it "herding cats."  The Majority Leader is a party official with no real statutory authority.  By tradition, however, he has to be much more than a party officer.  He must be the adult in the room when the country needs an adult.  This requires the leader be an occasional diplomat, a peacemaker when necessary and a dealmaker all the time.  Some leaders are better at parts of this than others, but the position requires loyalty to the Constitution, the rule of law and the role of governing. 

Sadly, this Majority Leader is failing at all of those. He has become a co-conspirator with the Administration in undermining the role of the Article I branch of government. His bellicose outbursts and temperament shortcomings are coming back to haunt his own party's candidates out on main street.  If his own caucus doesn't yet appreciate that, maybe the Ambassador to China does.
The Senate Majority Leader isn't on the ballot this year, but for many incumbent Democratic Senators struggling for reelection, he is becoming an issue from which his own party cannot escape and for which they are increasingly being held accountable.  His sometimes reckless rhetoric and cavalier disregard for process doesn't sit well with down home folks, main street independents and increasingly even fed up Democrats. 

There was his unsubstantiated claim Romney lied on his taxes, his on camera assertion that all bad stories about the Affordable Care Act were untrue and his unprecedented attacks on the Koch brothers as being "un-American."  While few understand exactly HOW he changed the Senate rules, they know it sounds like "trickery."  His response to the incident with the rancher in Nevada made him look like a bully out to protect his hand-picked agency head.  His comments that Americans who disagree with the sometimes heavy hand of the government are "domestic terrorists" was unbelievably intemperate. 

The concept of blaming all this on Republican obstructionism is wearing thin.  The annual budget resolution required by law is not subject to a GOP filibuster but he chooses not to consider one to save his own party from having to make difficult votes.  He said he is considering more parliamentary chicanery to restrict GOP filibusters of nominees for U.S. attorney even though not a single such nominee has been held up because of a filibuster.  It is an endless list.  I suspect the Majority Leader intends all this to reflect poorly on the GOP.  Instead, it shines the light on his own history of bizarre behavior.   

Every U.S. Senator has the right to be as outrageous as he/she wants to be and there have been plenty of outrageous characters in the Senate over the years. Still, the Majority Leader must have a higher calling.  He carries the burden of making the "world's greatest deliberative body" actually work.  He has to rise above the petty for the greater good.  This Majority Leader isn't and shows no interest in doing so.  That damages the Senate and the nation and makes the business of doing business with the Senate almost impossible.  It has to change.

For those interested in constructive policy outcomes there must be some return to regular order and reasoned decorum.  That will not happen unless the Congress that convenes in January 2015 has a new Senate Majority Leader.  That is and rightly should be an issue in this fall's campaign.  Every candidate running for the U.S. Senate must be asked for whom would they vote if their party is in the majority.  The voters may make the change by electing a Republican Majority.  But should Democrats remain the majority party next January, it would most certainly be in their own best interests, as well as the nation's, to find a suitable replacement.

To read this story by The Hill, and its message about Senator Reid, please visit http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/206733-an-imperial-majority-leader-reid-trumps-forebears-power.


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2014 Primaries: Turnout to Impact the November Ballot

4/16/2014

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More and more, voters believe the only thing that matters is whether or not a candidate is a Democrat or a Republican. Some even see it as a game of R's versus D's-with the Republican team leading the U.S. House with 240 players to the Democrat's 192, while the Democrats lead the U.S. Senate by four seats over the Republicans. In a game like this, voters are distracted from a candidate's platform on important issues and instead base their decisions on party ties. A primary election does not change the score of the game, but it does determine the caliber of the party's player come November. As primary elections continue, it's time to shift focus away from partisanship and toward the important issues affecting our nation and our economy.

It is time to get involved in the primary and become educated on primary candidate platforms. By doing this, voters will be able to shape the general election ballot. Let's make the primaries PRIMARY.

Primary election turnout has historically been lower than general election turnout-despite the fact that primary results directly determine the general election ballot. Average voter turnout in the 2012 statewide primaries slumped to the lowest level since presidential primaries proliferated in 1972. Based on the 41 states which held statewide primaries in both parties, turnout was 17.3%, a 40-point underdog to the nearly 60% turnout in the actual presidential elections^1. In order for the November ballot to accurately represent the voice of a candidate's district, voter turnout must be strong in the primary election.

Low primary turnout means that less of the electorate has shaped the general election ballot.

Primary election voters tend to be more radical voters who support their candidate regardless of electability in the general election^2. In recent years, U.S. House and Senate primary election candidates who were considered more ideologically-extreme, defeated well-established and comparatively moderate candidates. For example, in 2012 Tea Party candidates, Richard Mourdock (IN), Sharron Angle (NV), and Ken Buck (CO) all who triumphed in primary elections over more mainstream candidates, proved unpalatable to the general electorate in November and were not elected to office.

Primary election participation is especially pertinent to ensure the best viable candidate in each party is on the ballot for the general election.

Primary election voters determine the caliber of candidates for November's ballot while general election voters tend to vote along party lines. Furthermore, because approximately 60% of congressional districts are not swing districts^3, a dominant party's primary candidate who makes it to the November ballot will most likely be elected. These primary elections are especially competitive in the advantaged party of constituencies in which one party has a clear advantage in terms of voter loyalties.

It's time to make the primary election the important election. Learn about the primary elections in your district and educate yourself on your primary candidate's platform. Together, we can shape the November ballot and bring the focus back to electing candidates based on their stance on the issues important to our success.

  1. "National Primary Turnout Hits New Record Low." Bipartisan Policy Center, 10 Oct. 2012.
  2. Gerber, Elisabeth R. "Primary Election Systems and Representation." Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization, Vol. 14, No. 2 (1998): 304-24.
  3. Hirano, Shigeo, James M. Snyder, and Michael M. Ting. "Distributive Politics with Primaries." The Journal of Politics 71.04 (2009): 1467-480.
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Stakes in the States: Recall Elections

8/12/2013

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What is a recall election? It is a procedure that allows citizens to remove and replace an elected official before the end of their term. Recalls can be used to rid the office of a corrupt or incompetent leader, for partisan politics, or removing officials for a policy position. It is estimated that a majority, three-fourths, of recall elections are at city council or school board level, though there have been increasing instances of recalls at the state level. Nineteen states (AK, AZ, CA, CO, GA, ID, IL, KS, LA, MI, MN, MT, NV, NJ, ND, OR, RI, WA and WI) and the District of Columbia currently allow recalls of state officials. In the past three years, several states have seen state elected officials face recalls, including WI, AZ, MI and currently, CO.

State Level Recalls since 2010 (according to National Conference of State Legislatures)

  • 2011 Wisconsin: Nine state senators faced recall elections regarding the budget bill proposed by Governor Walker (R). Sens. Robert Cowles (R), Alberta Darling (R), Dave Hansen (D), Sheila Harsdorf (R), Jim Holperin (D), Luther Olsen (R) and Robert Wirch (D) survived recall attempts. Senators Randy Hopper (R) and Dan Kapanke (R) were recalled.
  • 2011 Arizona: Senate President Russell Pearce (R) was recalled over his sponsorship of AZ’s immigration law.
  • 2011 Michigan: State Representative Paul Scott (R) was recalled for supporting Gov. Snyder’s budget and angering teachers unions.
  • 2012 Wisconsin: Gov. Walker and four state senators faced recalls over collective bargaining issues. Gov. Scott Walker, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) and Senator Terry Moulton (R) survived recall attempts. Senator Van Wanggaard (R) was recalled. Senator Pam Galloway (R) resigned before her recall election, a recall was still held for her seat.
  • 2013 Colorado: State Senate President John Morse (D) and Senator Angela Giron (D) face recall elections on September 10 for their support of gun control legislation.
In the first ever recall elections of state lawmakers in Colorado, two Democratic senators in Colorado are facing recalls due to their vote on stricter gun control measures, State Senate President John Morse of El Paso County and Senator Angela Giron of Pueblo County. After the Secretary of State deemed there were enough signatures for a recall, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) set the recall election date for September 10, 2013.

The gun control bills causing such uproar in CO, passed in the 2013 legislative session by the Democratically-controlled CO state legislature, were the first such bills passed in over ten years. This is a hot topic issue in a state that is well known for the Columbine High School and Aurora shootings, but is also known for its bipartisan passion of hunting and sport shooting.

A group behind the recall, the Basic Freedom Defense Fund (501 (c)(4) non-profit), was set up in February in response to the passed gun legislation. The founding members say the main issue is about legislators not listening to their constituents. Originally, four Democrats were targeted to be recalled, including Sen. Evie Hudak (D) of Westminster and Rep. Mike McLachlan (D) of Durango but only the recall attempts for Sens. Morse and Giron gained enough signatures. Former Colorado Springs City Councilman Bernie Herpin (R) is challenging Morse and former police officer Georgia Rivera (R) of Pueblo is challenging Giron.

Money has been pouring into the elections, with Giron and Morse raising nearly a quarter million dollars, and receiving thousands of dollars from Colorado liberal groups. Recall supporters have been sending their funds to the Basic Freedom Defense, and the NRA has helped with mailers and phone banks. According to El Paso and Pueblo county clerks, the elections will cost somewhere between $150,000 and $200,000.

Even if the recall attempts are successful, Democrats will still hold the majority in the Senate, 18-17. However, supporters of the recall still hope this will send messages to legislators in CO and across the country.

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