Join the Fight for Jobs!
  • Home
  • About
    • Maps
    • Register to Vote
    • Contact Us
  • Top Issues
  • Voter Tools
  • Find Your Candidate

2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

0 Comments

 
by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
0 Comments

AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

0 Comments

 
Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
0 Comments

U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

0 Comments

 
The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
0 Comments

Business and the Tea Party Insurgency

6/18/2014

0 Comments

 
It is understood the GOP will maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which does not speak to "who" will control the House GOP. The exodus of so many senior Democrats is telling. Regarding governors, although the GOP will lose ground, the big gains Democrats hoped to achieve in state houses isn't going to materialize. All eyes are then focused on whether the GOP will regain the U.S. Senate.
 
Washington wisdom suggests outright control of the Senate is the GOP's to lose. The environment seems consistent with that. The public leans towards GOP control of Congress. The President's approval is under water by double digits in key states and some core issues are going south for their party. Historically, the party of the White House doesn't do well in the off year election during a President's second term and given their base historically doesn't show up well in off year elections anyway, therefore Democrats face a potentially toxic political environment in November.
 
The math and the cadre of quality GOP candidates also seems to suggest a GOP advantage. The GOP needs six seats to regain the majority outright. Three of those seem certain, assuming the GOP candidates in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia keep their eye on the ball. That leaves a target rich environment of another eleven or so potentially competitive Senate races from which the GOP needs to win three, assuming they hold Georgia and Kentucky. In six of those eleven states, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina, the GOP candidate leads in three and the other three are legitimate jump balls. Let's not slice this to fine at this point. They are all close. There are five other races in Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia that lean Democratic but with numbers to iffy to provide much comfort. A little push from a legitimate wave and the close seats and anyone of these leaners could move in the GOP direction.

Still, the GOP has recently squandered similar opportunities. This time, however, it may be less about bad candidates than outdated campaigns. The recent upset of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia teaches us three obvious lessons; keeping your eye on the ball back home matters, money alone is no cure for taking your eye off the ball and the electorate everywhere is pretty angry at Washington arrogance. Maybe not so obvious, however, was the oft stated disdain for Leader Cantor's cozy relationship with "corporate influence."   While anti-big business, "crony capitalism" has been part of the Tea Party line for some time, it was full-throated the day after this unknown and underfunded candidate upset the Majority Leader even after being outspent 5 to 1.
 
As I was preparing my thoughts for this newsletter, Red State published an article entitled "Big Business is afraid of conservatives - and they should be." Although I don't buy the full narrative, it does speak to a growing belief among many that "corporate" America is as much a part of the problem as "big government" and hints that big, overt corporate support of candidates may not always be as helpful as it once was.
 
This carries a significant warning, less related to the rhetoric of the extreme right than it to the tactics used to defend against their insurgency. Congressman Ralph Hall (R-TX) had the support of the business "establishment" and lost in a run off.  Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) had the support of the establishment too and came in a close second in his primary and is forced to a runoff. Conversely, Tea Party targets Congressman Mike Simpson (R-ID) and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) made the ground game and personal voter contact mainstays of their campaigns and won handily. While it is obvious there was a significant difference in the capability of these candidates, it does suggest there is no substitute for real grassroots in this environment, even by, or especially by, business. Maybe we should keep our eye on the same ball.
 
Brad Dayspring, a former Cantor aide and NRSC Communications Director said last week, "one of the extremely valuable, must follow lessons is you have to adapt and run a modern campaign. Doing things the same old way in the current environment and with the current electorate isn't going to cut it anymore." Good advice for the GOP and for the business community.
0 Comments

USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

0 Comments

 
Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
0 Comments

The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

0 Comments

 
Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
0 Comments

Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

0 Comments

 
The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
0 Comments

Primary Election Updates

6/4/2014

0 Comments

 
By Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs, BIPAC 

A big day of primaries with several BIPAC endorsed candidates doing well.  As you know, BIPAC endorses only in competitive races where there is broad consensus at the federal, state and local level that one candidate is the strongest advocate for the business community's policy priorities.  Yesterday's results were good news for the business community in those key races where all but one BIPAC endorsed candidate won their primary.

BIPAC Endorsed Candidate Results

Senate:

  • MS-Sen: Thad Cochran: Runoff
  • MT-Sen: Steve Daines: Won Primary
  • IA-Sen: Joni Ernst: Won Primary
House:

  • IA-1: Swati Dandekar: Lost Primary
  • NOTE: CA has an open primary with top 2 candidates, regardless of party, advancing to a general election
  • CA-7: Doug Ose: Advanced to General Election
  • CA-15: Eric Swalwell: Advanced to General Election
  • CA-21: David Valadao: Advanced to General Election
  • CA-33: Ted Lieu: Advanced to General Election
  • CA-52: Carl DeMaio: Advanced to General Election
Taking a look at contested races in each state, the business community will be pleased with the results even beyond the key races in which BIPAC issued an endorsement.  In many cases, business-oriented candidates from both parties prevailed and will move forward in strong position to the general election.

Mississippi

Senate:

In perhaps the most watched race of the day, Senator Thad Cochran and tea-party challenger Chris McDaniel will advance to a run off because neither broke 50% of the primary vote and ended less than 1% away from each other in the final tally.  BIPAC and much of the rest of the business community rallied to support Cochran and will now need to redouble their efforts to reelect him.  The runoff was a completely unexpected scenario as a little known third candidate in the primary ended up with less than 2% of the vote, but it was enough to hold both Cochran and McDaniel under 50%.  The runoff will be held June 24.  The winner will face former Democratic Congressman Travis Childers in the general election.

House:

All Incumbents won their primaries and are not expecting difficult general election challenges.  Of note, in MS-4: Republican Congressman Steven Palazzo held off a primary challenge from former Democratic Congressman Gene Taylor who had represented the district for many years and switched parties to run for his old seat in the primary.  Palazzo won 50-43 with other minor candidates taking the balance.

Iowa

Senate:

BIPAC endorsed candidate Joni Ernst overwhelmingly won the Republican nomination against a crowded field including former Reliant Energy CEO Mark Jacobs and US Attorney Matt Whitaker.   Ernst took over 55% of the vote to Jacobs' 17% and the balance going to the remaining candidates.  Clearing the 35% threshold means Ernst wins the nomination outright without having to go to a state nominating convention, which could have presented great uncertainty to the process.  Ernst will now face Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley in the general election and the race is expected to be one of the most competitive of the cycle. 

House:

Congressmen Dave Loebsack and Steve King both won their primaries easily and do not face strong general election challenges.

IA-1: In the Bruce Braley held open seat, Democratic Pat Murphy won the nomination with 37% of the vote over BIPAC endorsed candidate Swati Dandekar and Cedar Rapids Congresswoman Monica Vernon.  Murphy has served as Speaker of the Iowa legislature for many years and has compiled a disappointingly anti-business record over that time.  He will face Republican Rod Blum in the general election which has the potential of becoming competitive but has been a consistently Democratic district to date.

IA-3: In the Tom Latham open seat, Republicans Brad Zaun and Robert Cramer will advance to a district convention to determination the nomination as no candidate received over 35% of the vote.  The business community in Iowa and the district was very split during the primary with no candidate emerging as the consensus business candidate.  The eventual nominee will face Democratic nominee Staci Appel in what is expected to be one of the most competitive elections of the cycle.

Montana

Senate:

BIPAC endorsed candidate Steve Daines secured the Republican nomination for Senate to take on Democrat John Walsh who was appointed to the seat upon Max Baucus confirmation as Ambassador.  Daines is the current at-large member of Congress and has amassed a strong record of supporting the business community.   Daines has maintained a lead in most polls to date and Republicans consider this one of their most likely pick up opportunities.

House At-Large:

In the open seat for the state's sole Congressional seat, Republican Ryan Zinke will face Democrat John Lewis, a long time staffer to Sen. Baucus in the general election.  The seat is expected to remain in Republican hands and Zinke is expected to have a good working relationship with the business community which split between him and other candidates during the primary.

Alabama

House:

AL-6: In the six person primary to fill retiring Republican Spencer Bachus' seat, Republicans will face a runoff between Paul DeMarco and Gary Palmer. In such a crowded field, the business community split amongst a number of the candidates, but DeMarco has a strong record as a friend of the business community in the state legislature and was supported by BIPAC's deployment partner Manufacture Alabama.  He is expected to be a friend to the business community in Washington in what is the most Republican district in one of the most Republican states in the country. 

California

In California, the top two vote getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election.

House:

CA-7: Rep. Ami Bera (D) and BIPAC endorsed candidate, former Congressman and businessman Doug Ose (R) made it out of with primary, with 47 and 27 percent, respectively.   This is a top race to watch going into the general and a good opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business candidate.

CA-10: Rep. Denham (R), from the 10th district, will face bee farmer Michael Eggman (D) in the general.   This could be a race to watch as the general shapes up, but Denham starts out with an advantage.

CA-11: In the 11th district, Rep. Miller (D) is retiring, and the field quickly cleared for state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier (D).  He advanced to the general, along with Republican Tue Phan though DeSaulnier is the easy favorite to win the general in this heavily Democratic seat.  

CA-15: BIPAC endorsed candidate Eric Swalwell will face Republican Hugh Bussell who edged out a Democrat who was seeking to upset the incumbent, business friendly Democrat.  Swalwell is expected to retain the seat in the general election.

CA-17: Democrats have been dealing with a family feud in the 17th district, with former Obama administration official Ro Khanna (D) challenging sitting Rep. Mike Honda (D).  Both advanced to the general, with Honda winning 49 percent of the vote and Khanna pulling in 26 percent.  This could become a competitive race, but Honda currently has the advantage.

CA-21: Former Congressional aide Amanda Renteria (D) received 24 percent of the vote and will challenge Rep. David Valadao (R) in the general.  Renteria is a top Democratic recruit and this will be a competitive general election race.  Valadao has been a great friend to business and has been endorsed by BIPAC this cycle.

CA-25: The race to replace retiring Rep. McKeon (R) led to a competitive primary between three of the candidates, Lee Rogers (D), Tony Strickland (R) and Steve Knight (R).  Strickland and Knight will advance to the general election, so the seat is assured to remain republican.  The business community is rallying around Strickland, who is now the favorite for the general election.

CA-26: Freshman Rep. Julia Brownley (D) will face off against Assemblyman Jeff Gorell (R) in November.  A member of the U.S. Navy Reserve and a former prosecutor, Gorell is a formidable challenger and could make this race competitive. 

CA-31: The 31st district has been a top target for Democrats, especially once Rep. Miller (R) announced his retirement.  With four Democrats on the ballot and two serious Republican contenders, Democrats were worried that once again, the Democrats' votes would be too split and the two Republicans would make it out of the primary.   The general election will be Republican businessman Paul Chabot against Democrat Pete Aguilar in this Democratic-leaning district.

CA-33: The 33rd district had a whopping 18 candidates running to replacing outgoing Rep. Waxman (D) in this reliably safe Democratic seat.   Former LA Controller Wendy Greuel (D) and BIPAC endorsed candidate, state Sen. Ted Lieu (D) battled it out on the Democratic side while most Republican votes went to Elan Carr.  Lieu and Carr will advance to the general election.  This is an opportunity for the business community to gain a pro-business candidate in the delegation as Lieu is a pro-business Democrat and was the favorite of the business community to emerge amongst the crowded field.

CA-35: State Sen. Norma Torres (D) and Christina Gagnier (D) won the top two spots in the 35th district to succeed Rep. Negrete McLeod (D).  Torres is expected to easily win the general.  

CA-36: In the 36th district, Assemblyman Brian Nestande (R) and Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) formalized their general election.  Nestande is a great business candidate and Ruiz is vulnerable going into the general.  This will be a race to watch. 

CA-45: With Rep. Campbell's (R) retirement, the top two spots went to state Sen. Mimi Walters (R) and Democrat Drew Leavens.  Walters is the favorite to become the next Congresswoman from the 45th district and would be a good friend to the business community. 

CA-52: In the 52nd district, BIPAC endorsed candidate and former member of the San Diego City Council Carl DeMaio (R) became the official challenger to vulnerable Rep. Scott Peters (D).  This will be competitive general election and one the business community should pay attention to.

New Jersey

House:

NJ-3: Rep. Jon Runyan (R) is retiring, setting off a competitive Republican primary and general election.   In the primary, former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur beat former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, a conservative firebrand, 60-40.  MacArthur was leading Lonegan in the polls and is the best bet for Republicans to hold this seat.  Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard (D) won the Democratic nomination with 84 percent of the vote.  

NJ-12: Rush Holt's (D) retirement in this safe Democratic seat led to a four way race in the Democratic primary.  The two frontrunners were state Sen. Linda Greenstein and state Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman.  Coleman won with 43 percent of the vote and is expected to become the next Congresswoman in the Trenton area district.

New Mexico

Senate:

Businessman and former state Republican Chair Allen Weh won the Republican nomination to take on Sen. Tom Udall (D).   The Senate race is not expected to be competitive, and Tom Udall will keep his seat.  

South Dakota

Senate:

The nominees are officially set for the open U.S. Senate seat due to Sen. Johnson's (D) retirement.  Former Gov. Mike Rounds won the Republican nomination, as expected.  Rick Weiland is the Democratic nominee.   South Dakota is one of the Republican's best chance at a pickup in 2014 and Rounds goes into the general election as the favorite.

All other incumbents easily won their primaries and none anticipate difficult general election battles.
0 Comments

Q&A with Alan Webber: Alan Webber could win on new ideas and enthusiasm — but will that be enough?

5/30/2014

0 Comments

 
By Carroll Cagle of the New Mexico Prosperity Project  

If the ingredients to win the five-person race to be the Democratic candidate for governor were enthusiasm and ideas, and the ability to articulate them clearly, Alan Webber could coast to the nomination.  Oh, and that he is a high-net worth fellow able to provide healthy cash infusions into his campaign does not hurt either.  

That Webber is brimming with enthusiasm and ideas is what shone through in the interview New Mexico Prosperity Project had with the Santa Fe resident, successful entrepreneur (he founded and later sold Fast Company, a magazine for high-growth, high tech companies) and, among other things, the managing editor of the Harvard Business Review.  

Webber, although a newcomer to elective politics in New Mexico, is practically bubbling over with insights and plans that are not characteristic of the state’s familiar candidates from more traditional political backgrounds in the state, with a more familiar litany of proposals.  So who is Alan Webber?  Given that he is within striking distance of winning the nomination, we felt it was important to provide this report, a combination of interview and context, prior to Tuesday’s primary election.   

(A poll shows Gary King in the lead with 22 percent and Webber tied for second with Lawrence Rael at 16 percent each — but with a whopping 29 percent undecided only days before the election. We already have interviewed both King and Rael, and posted articles accordingly. We did not seek out the other two Democratic candidates who seem to be lagging far behind.)    

A year ago most active Democrats here probably had never heard of Alan Webber — and of course that was true in spades with rank-and-file voters out across the state. Now, Webber’s ubiquitous television commercials have changed that. He is hoping that his innovative ideas and ability to knit regions and ideological camps together into a cooperative whole can help him oust Republican Governor Susana Martinez and govern effectively with positive outcomes.  

Webber sees the incumbent, who is seeking her second four-year term, as being the wrong person for the job, and because of that, New Mexico is hurting economically more than it should. He says New Mexico was “one of only two states to actually lose jobs between April 2013 and April 2014.” This outcome not only is bad but pretty hard to achieve, according to Webber. Although his frequently aired TV commercials do not criticize the governor in such a fashion, Webber told us: “Her background is as a prosecutor — and a prosecutor prosecutes,” whereas his own background is as a “journalist, businessman, and entrepreneur.” Because the current governor sees the world through a prosecutorial lens, he observes, her administration is marked by “a lack of vision, a lack of leadership, and a lack of strategy” — whereas, “I speak the language (of leadership and strategy) and I understand the issues.”  

If he were to end up in the fourth-floor capitol offices as governor, Webber would address several of the strategic economic problems facing New Mexico in these ways:  

Federal spending reductions
In 1942, Robert Oppenheimer and his colleagues perched on the remote mesa southwest of Santa Fe, reached only by twisty gravel roads with travelers peering down over perilous precipices into the steep canyons far below, and focused their thinking and analysis on developing the world’s first nuclear weapon. Since then, on a pie chart labeled, “New Mexico economy,” federal expenditures would be a big, important slice. In some ways, New Mexico, although an independent state and “one of the 50,” has been a “defense colony,” providing vital research, services and capabilities on behalf of national security objectives. Los Alamos National Laboratory is now a sprawling, multi-billion-dollar-a-year enterprise and so, too, is Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque. Add three Air Force bases and the nation’s largest military reservation, White Sands Missile Range, and the federal government has seen a legitimate reason to funnel billions into the state.  

However, now that Washington’s cumulative debt is more than $17 trillion, and the interest payments alone are worrisome and growing, members of congress seem less likely to keep this healthy cash flow going. Indeed the reductions already have begun, and private-sector contractors, as well as lab employees, have felt the pinch. Progressives (formerly known as liberals) and tea party budget hawks alike now look askance at the once-sacrosanct nuclear weapons labs budgets. They, and even middle-of-the road types, have a different view on this than once not only because of debt worries but because of a growing sentiment to ease back on the costly, and entangling, nature of Pax Americana, which began about the time of the Manhattan Project. This means storm clouds on the state’s economic horizon, even aside from other familiar downturns such as the housing sector.  

What would Webber do? Two things, he says: Work closely with the (mostly Democratic) congressional delegation, to help protect against unthoughtful and Draconian cuts to the labs’ budgets. And, he says, Los Alamos and Sandia “ought to be a source of ideas to create economic activity – turning ideas into commercialization.” Protecting the state lab budgets is something longtime Senators Pete Domenici, R, and Jeff Bingaman, D, took on as their mantra for decades. Current members of the delegation do not shrink from the need, but seem to recognize the glory days of lab may be past. What’s not to like about the “swords to plowshare” premise that Webber would like to promote? It does sound appealing. Domenici and Bingaman were keen on this going back to the first “technology transfer” federal legislation, the Stevenson-Wylder Act of 1980. Thirty-five years on, there are some success stories but, over all, this seems to perpetually be an idea whose time will soon come (but never actually does). The notion that nuclear weaponry has commercial spinoffs is a head-scratcher to some, but even if ideas were to be put forth, nuke researchers at government labs do not often tend to be of an entrepreneurial bent, and business people on the outside keen to commercialize are not always met with a user-friendly interface at the labs, shall we say. Yet, the time may finally be here, because the old ways are changing and if Webber were to work this intensely, maybe inertia will be replaced by a slow-building momentum toward private commercialization endeavors.  

The overall N.M. economy
A good way to observe Alan Webber’s fervid idea-generating mind is to ask him what to do to get New Mexico out of the economic cellar. Ideas spill out with such staccato rapidity that it is difficult to keep up. Of course he thinks Governor Martinez is ever the prosecutor and does not “get” the world of business. He also thinks previous “New Mexico economic development” efforts have erroneously seen the state as a whole when, in reality, he says, “there is not just one economy but at least 10 economies that we need to weave together.”   

The specific ideas come flying out like tennis balls from one of those automated devices on a tennis court:  Listen to the already-existing national, and international, successful people with demonstrated great ideas already living here. Recognize that New Mexico is a “high-BTU energy state” and make it a leader via “a renewable economy with wind, solar and geothermal.”   

In the agriculture sector, move way beyond the popular Hatch green chile leadership role and position New Mexico as a center with a growing emphasis on healthy foods.   

Change what is a “water problem” (growing shortages and long-term severe drought) into a plus by marshaling interested parties toward making New Mexico a national or world leader in “managing water smartly.”  

For tourism, even though New Mexico is colorful and fascinating in many ways, the state’s promos “make us look about as bland as everybody.” He would position New Mexico at the head of the mobile-device universe by fostering “hack-a-thons” to develop the coolest and best apps related to tourism. Tie this in with the TV and movie production industry here, for example, developing apps to lead the interested to location scenes in such films as “No Country for Old Men.” He is aggravated that Austin has assumed the mantle as live music capital of America, when New Mexico has a much older, broader and diverse set of musical talents of all stripes. He would work with state musicians to remedy that little Austin problem. More movies and TV productions are “ideal for New Mexico because they don’t use water” and they provide jobs to far more than the actors — such as caterers, set builders, truck drivers. In all, innovators, entrepreneurs and business people of all types “need a governor that speaks their language.”  

One bit of timing may be helping Webber in his economic development messaging has to do with this assertion on his campaign website:  “She (Susana Martinez) wants to bribe big out-of-state corporations to come to New Mexico by giving away our tax dollars. It won’t work. Because when the handouts run out, so do the corporations — and they take the jobs with them.” In recent days, two big national tech companies, Intel and Hewlett-Packard, both with operations in Rio Rancho, have announced they are cutting back. Intel, once the crown jewel of the “recruitment” premise (luring national corporations to put plants or offices here), is a shadow of its former self, having slowly (and often without announcement) let its workforce and contractors dwindle to less than half of the glory days. Not only that, in the ever-evolving semiconductor business, a plant that does not stay cutting edge usually ends up closing. Even a once “solar darling,” Schott Solar, that was seen — even, or especially, by progressives — as a wondrous thing, closed its operations at Mesa del Sol, shed all its jobs, and went bye-bye.  

Regarding all of the above — and who knows what else? — Webber says as governor he would be “not only the CEO but the chief marketing officer” for New Mexico, communicating far and wide and tirelessly to let the outside world know what is here, but not known or misunderstood, or what could be (via innovation).  

A progressive – and the oil and gas sector
It may not be normal for most business people, esp. one with presumably millions in net worth, but Webber portrays himself as an unabashed progressive — for many years known as a “liberal.”  That label is anathema to many in traditional business world, whatever the economic sector.  In our interview, we duly noted Webber’s prolific and productive idea-generating mind, including most particularly his ardent support for wind and solar energy (a perennial progressive favorite), but wondered how he would go over among the electorate outside the “solar voter” regions, in a general election when the voter base is much broader than in a Democratic primary (requiring appeal to, if not too many Republicans, at least the big bloc of independents). Specifically, Webber’s campaign extolls all things solar but is silent on the economic benefits of the state’s oil and gas sector, which supplies one-third of all tax revenue to state government (helping pay for schools and all other services). He does, however, on this campaign website, call for outcomes which oil and gas, in general, tends to strenuously object to: “mandated reductions” from what he calls “major carbon polluters.” Since oil and gas are carbon-based fuels, and their combustion results in CO2 emissions, Webber, in that fashion, seems to be putting oil and gas in his crosshairs as a target.     

Webber was asked how he could possibly take his popular-in-the-primary “renewables” story and then, if he were to win next Tuesday’s primary, reach out to, for example, the business owners, managers and workers putting in oil rigs as fast as they can around Roswell, Artesia, Carlsbad, Lovington, and Hobbs. Although his ads and website do not say so, or perhaps say the opposite, Webber  told us he is keenly aware of how this sector is the largest single source of tax revenues to state government, and thus much needed. He also says, with his business background, he would offer oil and gas “stability and predictability” with regard to logical, well-administered, consistent regulations, while, he said, Governor Martinez’ administration is actually somewhat of a danger to the sector because it does not understand these principles, and thus is likely to be erratic and/or to not have sufficient, well-trained, regulators, to check out the well sites and such. “Business people don’t like unpredictability,” he said.  

Webber says when he first announced for governor and labeled himself as a “pro-jobs progressive” he got a lot of blowback from conservatives and Republicans who expressed skepticism there could be such a creature. He says he wrote a long email to these skeptics saying, yes, one can be both pro-economic growth and a “progressive.” He says he ardently supports rights without regard to race, creed, color, national origin or sexual orientation, but at the same time thinks well-thought-out economic growth is highly beneficial. He says, “I’m not much for (political) labels. Once you use a label you don’t have to listen anymore.” (Although it is a fact that he labels himself, in that the first sentence on the biography section of his campaign website says: “Alan Webber is a progressive Democrat running for Governor of New Mexico.”   

The election(s)
Webber and his advisors may have felt, early on, that “progressive” self-labeling would be necessary to win the Democratic primary, where progressives often do well. Highly organized get-out-the-vote groups such as teachers’ unions and environmental groups tend to be progressive-minded and can affect Democratic primary outcomes. If Webber does not win the primary, it might be because, in a low-turnout primary in an “off-year” election, such as this, younger and more progressive-oriented voters do not vote nearly as reliably as older, more conservative Democrats. This fact would seem to favor the generally more centrist, and conservative in style, Gary King, the attorney general and one of Webber’s opponents. A loss might also be because the Webber TV commercials, the first Democratic ones on the air, and most all of his messaging, do not nearly reflect the pro-jobs nuances he articulated in his interview with New Mexico Prosperity Project. Likely, someone concluded that a 30-second spot was no time for nuance, and that they had to go whole hog for the big progressive bloc — but if that message loses him support among the not-so-progressive older voting bloc, well…If Gary King holds on to his tenuous lead and Webber does not win the prize next Tuesday, it might also demonstrate that personal connections and networks, established over many years, can trump the efforts of a deep-pocketed relative newcomer, however intelligent and sincere.  

On the other hand, there is the fact that Webber could, and did, spend hundreds of thousands of dollars (many of them his own) on early TV, which can be a major influencer. Even for voters who may not be so “progressive,” perhaps enough will decide, “What the heck? I am embarrassed, or tired of New Mexico always seeming to be on the bottom. This new guy seems smart, energetic, and — well, new, so what’ve we got to lose? — maybe we’ll just give him a try.”    

If that were to be the case, Webber then would have to adroitly pivot from the primary-winning “progressive” messaging to a broader, and more nuanced, story that would resonate from Hobbs to Las Vegas (whose Democratic mayor has all but endorsed Governor Martinez), and capture votes from, if not outright conservatives, at least moderate Democrats and independents.  

Webber was born in Missouri, graduated from Amherst, and later worked in Portland, OR, (for the mayor), Washington, D.C. (for the secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation), and in Boston (for Governor Michael Dukakis’ administration and as the managing editor of the Harvard Business Review, which he says is known as “the West Point of capitalism”). He has the wherewithal to take on a project as demanding (in terms of both energy and dollars) as a governor’s race because of the big-league success of the business magazine he founded over the reservations of more cautious minds.
0 Comments

Breaking It Down: Senate Seniority

2/8/2013

0 Comments

 
Seniority in the U.S. Senate has always been viewed as beneficial.  More senior members usually have increased clout in the chamber and higher positions in committees.  However, in a year where almost half of the senators have been serving less than six years, lack of seniority and experience can also be a good thing.  This is a great time to reach out to the newer members and introduce yourself and your issues.

There are currently 45 senators (this includes Senator Kerry’s successor) that have served less than six years and 39 of these senators are still serving in their first term.  In eleven states – CO, CT, HI, IN, MA, ND, NE, NH, NM, VA and WI – both senators have served less than six years.

Since the 2012 elections, changes in the Hawaii and Massachusetts delegations have drastically altered seniority in both states and the Senate.  When Senator Inouye passed away, the Senate lost its most senior member and Hawaii lost its seniority as a state in the Chamber.  Both Sens. Schatz and Hirono have served less than 2 months, a major change from the long careers of Sens. Inouye and Akaka.  Schatz is considered Hawaii’s senior member, since he was sworn in on December 27, 2012 and Hirono was sworn in on January 3, 1013.

Now that Kerry has submitted his resignation to become Secretary of State, Massachusetts lost the seniority it held for decades.  Kerry was the seventh most senior senator and Ted Kennedy, before he passed away, was the second most senior member.  Once Kerry’s seat is filled, both Senators from Massachusetts will have been in office for less than a year (This will still hold true if Scott Brown is elected to take Kerry’s seat.  He lost his seniority when he left office in January 2013 after losing to Elizabeth Warren).

Two states that still hold considerable seniority in the Senate are Iowa and California.  For Iowa, Senator Grassley is the sixth most senior senator, followed by Senator Harkin who is seventh.  Iowa’s position will change following the 2014 election now that Harkin has announced his retirement.  California holds the fourteenth and fifteenth most senior spots, with Sens. Feinstein and Boxer.   Senator Leahy from Vermont is the Senate’s most senior member, and President pro tempore.
0 Comments
<<Previous

    About Us

    There is a time for politics and a time for governing. The time for politics is over the time for governing is upon us.

    113th Congress Cheatsheet

    Learn More

    Archives

    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    April 2011
    March 2011
    January 2011
    December 2010
    November 2010
    October 2010
    August 2010

    Categories

    All
    Alabama
    Alaska
    Arizona
    Arkansas
    California
    Colorado
    Connecticut
    Delaware
    District Of Columbia
    Florida
    Georgia
    Hawaii
    Idaho
    Illinois
    Indiana
    Iowa
    Kansas
    Kentucky
    Louisiana
    Maine
    Maryland
    Massachusetts
    Michigan
    Minnesota
    Mississippi
    Missouri
    Montana
    Nebraska
    Nevada
    New Hampshire
    New Jersey
    New Mexico
    New York
    North Carolina
    North Dakota
    Ohio
    Oklahoma
    Oregon
    Pennsylvania
    Rhode Island
    South Carolina
    South Dakota
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Utah
    Vermont
    Virginia
    Washington
    West Virginia
    Wisconsin
    Wyoming

    RSS Feed

Fight for Jobs
© 2014 BIPAC. All rights reserved.

Fight for Jobs

> About Fight for Jobs
> Top Issues
> Voter Tools
> Find Your Candidate
> Register to Vote

Connect With Us

> Facebook
> Twitter
> YouTube
> Email

Search Fight For Jobs

Fight for Jobs is a product of:
BIPAC