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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Primary Results in ME, NV, ND, SC & VA

6/11/2014

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House Majority Leader Eric Cantor defeated by conservative challenger

VA-7: In a huge upset yesterday, Randolph-Macon economics Professor David Brat defeated GOP House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, 56% to 44%.  Turnout in the 7th district was low, around 12%.  Though Brat was Cantor's most serious opponent in over a decade, Cantor was expected to easily defeat him on Tuesday, according to the polls.  Cantor did not take this challenge lightly; attacking Brat after his candidacy was announced.  With low campaign funds,  Brat relied on conservative activists such as radio talk show host Laura Ingraham to get out his message and attack Cantor on voting to end the government shutdown, raising the debt ceiling and, especially, his support for immigration reform.  Brat faces Democratic nominee Jack Trammell, who is also a professor at Randolph-Macon College, in the general.  This is a conservative district, but depending on the quality of the candidates, could become a race to watch.

The results for the remainder of Tuesday's primaries are below. 

BIPAC Endorsed Candidate Results
  • ME- 2: Kevin Raye: Lost Primary
  • VA-8: Don Beyer: Won Primary
  • VA-10: Barbara Comstock: Won Firehouse Primary (April)
Maine

House

ME-2: Rep. Mike Michaud (D) is running for Governor, which set up competitive primaries for the Democrats and Republicans in the 2nd district.  The Democratic primary was a fight between a progressive rising star, state Sen. Emily Cain and a socially conservative, pro-union candidate, state Sen. Troy Jackson.  Cain had a slight edge going into the primary and won with over 70% of the vote.  On the Republican side, BIPAC endorsed candidate Kevin Raye, a businessman-state Senator and former state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin faced off for the nomination.  Poliquin won with 56% of the vote.  This blue collar district has a slight Democratic edge, but it still expected to be competitive in the general.  

Nevada

House

NV-3: Democratic National Committeewoman and political consultant Erin Bilbray (D) is now the official nominee to take on Rep. Joe Heck (R) in the general election.  This will be Nevada's closest watched race in 2014, though Heck is currently favored.

NV-4: Assemblyman Cresent Hardy won the Republican nomination in the district.  The 4th district has the potential to become competitive, if the political environment continues to trend in the Republican's favor, but for now Rep. Steven Horsford (D) is sitting comfortably.

North Dakota

House

At-large: Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) had no primary opposition and his at-large seat is safe in the general.  
South Carolina

Senate

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) was able to avoid a runoff yesterday, receiving over 50% of the vote.  Graham was an early target for Tea Party groups because of his support of issues such as immigration reform.  While he faced six challengers in the Republican primary, none of them were able to gain traction or raise the funds necessary to take on Graham.  Graham also had the support of establishment Republican groups, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  Graham is not expected to have a tough general election race.  

House

There are no competitive primaries or general elections in the Congressional delegation.

Virginia

Senate

Ed Gillespie, former Republican National Committee chairman and lobbyist, won the Republican Senate nomination this past Saturday at a party convention. Gillespie was the most credible Republican challenger to Sen. Mark Warner (D), though he still has a long way to go to make this race competitive.  His fundraising numbers have been impressive, but polling still gives the advantage to Warner.

House

VA-8: With Rep. Jim Moran (D) retiring, seven Democrats were vying for the nomination in this safe Democrat seat.  BIPAC endorsed candidate Don Beyer, a former Lieutenant Governor and car dealership owner, won the nomination with 46% of the vote.  Beyer had been the frontrunner in the race since he entered and is favored to be the next Congressman from the 8th district.  

VA 10: The nominees for the open seat due to Rep. Frank Wolf's (R) retirement were decided back in March and April.  BIPAC endorsed candidate, state Delegate Barbara Comstock won the Republican nomination in a firehouse primary, beating back conservative firebrand, state Delegate Bob Marshall.  Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust became the official Democratic nominee in March when he was the only candidate to file.   This will be a competitive general election and one that the business community should pay attention to.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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Stakes in the States: Recall Elections

8/12/2013

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What is a recall election? It is a procedure that allows citizens to remove and replace an elected official before the end of their term. Recalls can be used to rid the office of a corrupt or incompetent leader, for partisan politics, or removing officials for a policy position. It is estimated that a majority, three-fourths, of recall elections are at city council or school board level, though there have been increasing instances of recalls at the state level. Nineteen states (AK, AZ, CA, CO, GA, ID, IL, KS, LA, MI, MN, MT, NV, NJ, ND, OR, RI, WA and WI) and the District of Columbia currently allow recalls of state officials. In the past three years, several states have seen state elected officials face recalls, including WI, AZ, MI and currently, CO.

State Level Recalls since 2010 (according to National Conference of State Legislatures)

  • 2011 Wisconsin: Nine state senators faced recall elections regarding the budget bill proposed by Governor Walker (R). Sens. Robert Cowles (R), Alberta Darling (R), Dave Hansen (D), Sheila Harsdorf (R), Jim Holperin (D), Luther Olsen (R) and Robert Wirch (D) survived recall attempts. Senators Randy Hopper (R) and Dan Kapanke (R) were recalled.
  • 2011 Arizona: Senate President Russell Pearce (R) was recalled over his sponsorship of AZ’s immigration law.
  • 2011 Michigan: State Representative Paul Scott (R) was recalled for supporting Gov. Snyder’s budget and angering teachers unions.
  • 2012 Wisconsin: Gov. Walker and four state senators faced recalls over collective bargaining issues. Gov. Scott Walker, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) and Senator Terry Moulton (R) survived recall attempts. Senator Van Wanggaard (R) was recalled. Senator Pam Galloway (R) resigned before her recall election, a recall was still held for her seat.
  • 2013 Colorado: State Senate President John Morse (D) and Senator Angela Giron (D) face recall elections on September 10 for their support of gun control legislation.
In the first ever recall elections of state lawmakers in Colorado, two Democratic senators in Colorado are facing recalls due to their vote on stricter gun control measures, State Senate President John Morse of El Paso County and Senator Angela Giron of Pueblo County. After the Secretary of State deemed there were enough signatures for a recall, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) set the recall election date for September 10, 2013.

The gun control bills causing such uproar in CO, passed in the 2013 legislative session by the Democratically-controlled CO state legislature, were the first such bills passed in over ten years. This is a hot topic issue in a state that is well known for the Columbine High School and Aurora shootings, but is also known for its bipartisan passion of hunting and sport shooting.

A group behind the recall, the Basic Freedom Defense Fund (501 (c)(4) non-profit), was set up in February in response to the passed gun legislation. The founding members say the main issue is about legislators not listening to their constituents. Originally, four Democrats were targeted to be recalled, including Sen. Evie Hudak (D) of Westminster and Rep. Mike McLachlan (D) of Durango but only the recall attempts for Sens. Morse and Giron gained enough signatures. Former Colorado Springs City Councilman Bernie Herpin (R) is challenging Morse and former police officer Georgia Rivera (R) of Pueblo is challenging Giron.

Money has been pouring into the elections, with Giron and Morse raising nearly a quarter million dollars, and receiving thousands of dollars from Colorado liberal groups. Recall supporters have been sending their funds to the Basic Freedom Defense, and the NRA has helped with mailers and phone banks. According to El Paso and Pueblo county clerks, the elections will cost somewhere between $150,000 and $200,000.

Even if the recall attempts are successful, Democrats will still hold the majority in the Senate, 18-17. However, supporters of the recall still hope this will send messages to legislators in CO and across the country.

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Breaking It Down: Senate Seniority

2/8/2013

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Seniority in the U.S. Senate has always been viewed as beneficial.  More senior members usually have increased clout in the chamber and higher positions in committees.  However, in a year where almost half of the senators have been serving less than six years, lack of seniority and experience can also be a good thing.  This is a great time to reach out to the newer members and introduce yourself and your issues.

There are currently 45 senators (this includes Senator Kerry’s successor) that have served less than six years and 39 of these senators are still serving in their first term.  In eleven states – CO, CT, HI, IN, MA, ND, NE, NH, NM, VA and WI – both senators have served less than six years.

Since the 2012 elections, changes in the Hawaii and Massachusetts delegations have drastically altered seniority in both states and the Senate.  When Senator Inouye passed away, the Senate lost its most senior member and Hawaii lost its seniority as a state in the Chamber.  Both Sens. Schatz and Hirono have served less than 2 months, a major change from the long careers of Sens. Inouye and Akaka.  Schatz is considered Hawaii’s senior member, since he was sworn in on December 27, 2012 and Hirono was sworn in on January 3, 1013.

Now that Kerry has submitted his resignation to become Secretary of State, Massachusetts lost the seniority it held for decades.  Kerry was the seventh most senior senator and Ted Kennedy, before he passed away, was the second most senior member.  Once Kerry’s seat is filled, both Senators from Massachusetts will have been in office for less than a year (This will still hold true if Scott Brown is elected to take Kerry’s seat.  He lost his seniority when he left office in January 2013 after losing to Elizabeth Warren).

Two states that still hold considerable seniority in the Senate are Iowa and California.  For Iowa, Senator Grassley is the sixth most senior senator, followed by Senator Harkin who is seventh.  Iowa’s position will change following the 2014 election now that Harkin has announced his retirement.  California holds the fourteenth and fifteenth most senior spots, with Sens. Feinstein and Boxer.   Senator Leahy from Vermont is the Senate’s most senior member, and President pro tempore.
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Exit Polling Is Going To Look Very Different In Some States This Year

11/6/2012

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A strong indication of who is going to win the Presidential election comes from exit polling results. A conglomerate of news outlets, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News Channel, NBC and the AP, are responsible for creating preliminary results for viewers to get an early indication of who is going to win a certain state. This year, however, cutbacks have been put in place regarding how extensive the polling will be in certain states; in 19 states, AK, AR, DE, GA, HI, ID, KY, LA, NE, ND, OK, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV and WY, the barest form of polling will occur, as opposed to full reports being conducted in all states in election cycles past.

In previous election years, full reports were conducted in each state, with a series of questions posed to the people being interviewed. Among the questions were: for whom they were voting, which age group they belonged to, and which issues were most critical in leading up to a decision. Such reports will still be conducted in 31 states. In the other 19 states however, the exit polls have been stripped to a singular question of who the interviewed person is voting for. These polls are happening exclusively in non-battleground states where no surprises are expected to occur. One of the main disadvantages of this system is that extensive post-race analysis will not be available for all of the states.

The reasoning for such a system comes down to the conglomerate of news outlets wanting to dedicate their resources to the most critical states, thereby giving the public concise analysis in states that dictated the outcome of the election. Early voting has also proved to be a stumbling block for pollsters, who now are forced to conduct cell phone interviews, as opposed to in-person interviews, which has increased costs greatly.

While the citizens of every state will not be awarded with in-depth analysis of their state’s races, it serves a bigger purpose in giving the entire nation a better idea of where the Presidential races were won and lost.
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