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Online Influence of the Action Fund's Latest Endorsements

10/22/2014

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by Jason Langsner, Director of New Media and Communications

Last week the BIPAC Action Fund released its final set of candidate endorsements for 2014 (see below).  To follow-up from those endorsements, the following Election Insights looks quantitatively at each endorsed candidate's race and provides a summary of how they are engaging with potential voters across social media as-compared-to the other party's candidate.

Candidates' social voices ranged from the high 40s to low 60s as defined by the Klout.com scale of influence, which goes up to 100.  As points of comparison, Speaker of the House John Boehner's official channel (@johnboehner) has a score of 87 and President Obama's official channel (@barackobama) has a score of 99.

The range of those that like the candidates' pages on Facebook and follow them on Twitter ranges from a few hundred to an outlier of 128k.  Some candidates are thus investing more in social and new media with their paid advertising strategy than others who are relying on organic growth and a content strategy that isn't promoted by ads.  Counting followers though doesn't provide a true metric of how engaged the candidates are with their desired audience of potential voters.  Klout is a bit better, but a true metric is to look at the sentiment of what is being said about the candidates.  For instance in the Alaska Senate race, those sharing on social media about Dan Sullivan are posting at a 4:1 positive-to-negative ration; as-compared-to a 1:1 ratio for Begich (source:  SocialMention.com).

Listening to the campaigns on social media helps to guide our strategy, but what impacts the strategy and makes a difference is the work being done on the ground by our members and partners.  BIPAC itself has assets on the ground across the U.S. in key election states of importance to our private sector community.  What we are seeing throughout the country in our grassroots political training workshops will provide the impact.

A Twitter channel cannot vote but the individual behind the online identity can - and BIPAC, plus our members and partners, want to make sure that private sector employees are registered and educated about the issues of importance to their job, company, and industry.

Employees Vote (and tweet) in 2014.

BIPAC Action Fund Final Endorsed Candidates' Online Voice
BIPAC Action Fund Final Endorsed Candidates' Online Voice
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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio Primary Recap

5/7/2014

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Primary season is upon us, with eleven states holding their primaries in May.  Yesterday, Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio kicked us off, with the results below.  

North Carolina

U.S. Senate:  In one of the most closely watched races on Tuesday, state Assembly Speaker Thom Tillis (R) garnered more than 40% of the vote in the GOP Senate primary and was thus able to avoid a runoff.  There were eight candidates in the GOP primary, with physician Greg Brannon and Pastor Mark Harris being the two strongest challengers, both from Tillis' right.  Tillis garnered broad support from the business community with endorsements from BIPAC and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, but also National Right to Life and the NRA.  Polls show Tillis in a very close race with incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan in November.

U.S. House:  There were several North Carolina Congressional races to watch, especially in the 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th and 12th Districts.  In the 2nd District, Rep. Ellmers (R) easily beat her primary challenger, Frank Roche, but it was the Democratic primary that gained all of the attention.  Three candidates were running, "American Idol" runner-up Clay Aiken, former state commerce secretary Keith Crisco and mental health counselor Toni Morris.  Aiken had a strong name ID going into the primary, but Crisco outspent Aiken, leading to a competitive primary.  Aiken currently leads by 369 votes, with 41% of the vote.  There is no declared winner yet. This will be an uphill climb for Democrats; Romney took the district with 58 percent of the vote in 2012.

One of the most vulnerable incumbents in the first round of primaries was Rep. Walter Jones (R - NC 3).  Challenged by former Bush administration official Taylor Griffin in the primary, Jones had his toughest race to date.  Griffin had the backing of establishment Republicans, but his background as a Bush staff and lobbyist had some questioning whether he could win over this libertarian leaning district. In the end, Jones was able to hold on to his seat, beating Griffin, 51 percent to 45 percent. The general is not expected to be competitive.

With Rep. Coble (R) retiring, the open seat in NC 6 will go into a runoff, as expected.  Frontrunner Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger Jr. made it into the Republican runoff, along with Baptist Pastor Mark Walker.  Whoever wins the GOP runoff is the favorite for the general election.  Romney won the 6th district with 58 percent of the vote in 2012.  In NC 12, state Rep. Alma Adams (D) narrowly avoided a runoff, winning just over 40% of the vote in both the special and regular primaries.  Rep. Watt (D) resigned from this safe Democratic seat earlier this year.
In the 7th district, former state Sen. David Rouzer beat out former state Sen. Woody White, 53 percent to 40 percent in the Republican primary.  Rouzer had the backing of the business community, including the Chamber of Commerce.  White, the more anti-establishment candidate, had the backing of former Gov. Huckabee.  This is a conservative seat, with Rouzer now favored to win the general.  The seat is being vacated by Blue Dog Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) and is considered one of the Republicans' best chances for a pickup.

Ohio

In Ohio, the field is now set for the two most competitive races in the Buckeye state for 2014 - the 6th and 14th districts.  In the 6th district, Rep. Bill Johnson (R) will face former state Rep. Jennifer Garrison (D).  In the 14th district, freshman Rep. David Joyce (R) survived his primary challenge from Matt Lynch.  This was Joyce's first primary election.  He was appointed to the general election ballot after Rep. LaTourette (R) retired after winning the primary nod in 2012. Attorney Michael Wager is now the official Democratic challenger.  Both these races are on the DCCC's radar and could shape up into competitive general election races.  Speaker John Boehner (R) also easily survived a primary challenge from JD Winteregg, taking 69 percent of the vote.

Indiana

Indiana has been relatively quiet in 2014.  There were no major primary challengers to incumbents, though Club for Growth attempted and failed to launch a credible primary to Rep. Larry Bucshon (R).   Of the nine congressional seats, only Rep. Walorski's (R - IN 2) is shaping up to be a competitive race.  Walorski won the open seat in 2012 by fewer than 4,000 votes.  Joe Bock, a University of Notre Dame professor, won the Democratic primary.  This is a race that could become competitive, but Walorski has the upper hand for now.
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2013: What’s On and Off the Radar?

1/25/2013

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Although 2013 will be relatively quiet compared to the intensity and chaos of 2012, there are many events that will occur impacting policy and elections in 2014, 2015 and 2016. For an overview of moments that are flying both over and under the radar in 2013, view the graphic below. To see what’s “on the radar”, check out the dates in Blue, and to see what’s “under the radar” see the dates in Red.
What's On Your Radar
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2012 Election Outcomes Summary

11/7/2012

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President
- Barack Obama:
50%, 303 Electoral Votes
- Mitt Romney:
48%, 206 Electoral Votes
- Note: Florida’s 29 electoral votes have not officially been called but President Obama leads the raw number count
- Switches from 2008: IN, NC, NE 02 switch from D to R

Senate
- Next Senate: 55 D (includes 2 Ind’s expected to caucus w/D), 45 R
- Net gain of +2 for Dems
- Of 33 on ballot (23 D, 8 R, 2 Ind)
- Freshman Class: 12 (8 D, 3R, 1 Ind)
- 1 incumbent lost in General Election (Scott Brown-MA, R)
- 1 incumbent lost in Primary Election (Dick Lugar-IN, R)
- Switches:
- R to D: IN, MA
- D to R: NE
- I to D: CT
- R to I: ME

*House
- 113th House will have approximately 236 R and 199 D
- If numbers hold, approximately net gain of +6 for D
- Freshman class: at least 80, 35 R and 42 D, 3 yet to be called (AZ 1, AZ 9, CA 26)
- Democrats lost 9 incumbents (Chandler-KY, Kissell-NC, Critz-PA, Hochul-NY, Sutton-OH, Stark-CA, Boswell-IA, Berman-CA, Richardson-CA)
- Republicans lost 14 incumbents (Bartlett-MD, Rivera-FL, Buerkle-NY, Bass-NH, Dold-IL, Walsh-IL, Biggert-IL, Schilling-IL, Guinta-NH, West-FL, Canseco-TX, Hayworth-NY, Cravaak-MN, LA runoff TBD)

Governor
- Current governors breakdown 30 R and 19 D and 1 Ind
- Of the 11 on the ballot 4 R and 6 D (WA still TBD)
- Net gain of +1 R

*Due to the complications of redistricting the House numbers are unusually confusing. For a more thorough explanation contact a BIPAC staff member.

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