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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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Primary Results for GA, ID, AR, KY, PA and OR

5/21/2014

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It was a big day for primaries around the country and the business community should be very pleased with the results as favored candidates won or advanced to runoffs in almost all cases.

Georgia: Runoff: July 22

Senate:

David Perdue and Jack Kingston advanced to a July 22 runoff. Vote percentages for all candidates were: David Perdue: 30%, Jack Kingston: 26%, Karen Handel: 22%, Phil Gingrey: 10%, Paul Broun: 10%. In such a crowded primary, paths to victory existed for each candidate in the early going, with the Georgia business community largely supporting former Reebok and Dollar General CEO David Perdue and longtime Congressman Jack Kingston. This is the best possible result for the business community as either candidate would be an excellent advocate. The eventual winner will face Michelle Nunn who secured the Democratic nomination with no real opposition. The general election may be competitive and is a top target of national Democrats.

House:

With three House members running for Senate, there were three open seats in Georgia and Congressman Hank Johnson also faced a tough primary challenge in his heavily Democratic district. All three open seats are in solidly Republican districts and are not expected to be competitive in the general election. The business community will want to be immediately and actively engaged in at least two of the runoffs.

GA-1: Jack Kingston's open seat, centered in Savannah, had a field of six candidates and State Senator Buddy Carter and physician Bob Johnson will advance to a runoff. Carter, a community pharmacist, split business community support with businessman John McCallum who came in third. Johnson, who modeled his candidacy on Ron Paul and courted tea party supporters, attracted controversy last month when he said he would rather experience another 9-11 than put up with TSA search regulations. The general election is not expected to be competitive, so the business community should immediately and actively engage in the runoff in this district, much like the 10th district.

GA-4: Congressman Hank Johnson barely held off primary challenger DeKalb County Sheriff Tom Brown. Brown outraised Johnson financially, but ultimately came up short. This is a solidly Democratic district and not competitive in the general election.

GA-10: In Paul Broun's open seat, covering much of the east-central portion of the state, six candidates vied for the nomination with Mike Collins and Jody Hice headed to a runoff. Jody Hice is an evangelical preacher and radio talk show host who focused his campaign on social issues while local trucking company operator Mike Collins is the son of former Congressman Mac Collins. Collins, who has not held elected office before, is expected to consolidate the support of the business community in the runoff. Hice has actively expressed opposition to several priorities of the business community in Georgia. The general election is not expected to be competitive, so if the business community would like to have a partner in this district, the runoff is the place to engage.

GA-11: Congressman Gingrey's suburban Atlanta district also had six people on the ballot with former Congressman Bob Barr and State Representative Barry Loudermilk advancing to the runoff. Most of the business community here supported State Rep Ed Lindsey and Workforce Development Director Tricia Pridemore and unfortunately neither advanced to the runoff. Loudermilk ran as a champion of tea party values while former member of Congress Bob Barr pointed to his record of conservative activism as reason to return to Congress. The general election is not expected to be competitive.

GA-12: John Barrow is one of the last remaining Blue Dog Democrats in the Congress and will face Augusta businessman Rick Allen who won a crowded Republican primary with over 50% of the vote. The business community here is split between Barrow and Allen and has historically had a good working relationship with Barrow. Allen started and runs a large local construction company and has been an active supporter of local business interests. This top Republican target district went to Romney by 12 points.

All other Congressional incumbents won their primaries and none are expected to be competitive in the general election.

Kentucky

Senate:


Republican Leader Mitch McConnell easily beat tea party challenger Matt Bevin in the GOP primary. Bevin was championed by conservative groups around the country but McConnell's superior fundraising and organizational capacity left him little to worry about. Democrats see this seat as a pick up opportunity with their nominee Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Current polling has the race very close despite the outsized Republican performance in Kentucky at the Presidential level.

House:

All House Incumbents won their primaries and none are expected to be competitive in the general election.

Idaho:

Senate:


Incumbent Jim Risch won his primary and the seat is not expected to be competitive in the general election.

House:

In the second district, Congressman Mike Simpson easily defeated tea party financed challenger Bryan Smith. Simpson was endorsed by BIPAC and we actively engaged the local business community through our state partner, the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry, to share Simpson's record of support for the business community, and sustained job and economic growth. The general election is not expected to be competitive.

Arkansas:

Senate:


Nominations were formalized for incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor and Republican challenger, Congressman Tom Cotton. Neither faced primary opposition. The general election between the two will be among the most closely watched in the country and is a key component to Republican attempts to retake Senate control.

House:

AR-2: Retiring Congressman Tim Griffin's seat is expected to now go to Little Rock banker French Hill who won the Republican primary in this solidly GOP seat. Hill has been a leader in the local business community and received enthusiastic backing from state, local and national business interests. He is expected to be champion of economic growth policies in the next Congress.

AR-4: In the race to fill Tom Cotton's open seat, State Senator Bruce Westerman beat young businessman Tommy Moll in the Republican primary. He will face former FEMA director James Lee Witt in the general election. The seat is solidly Republican, but Witt's high profile makes this a seat to keep an eye on. The local business community split between Westerman and Moll and the race didn't turn heavily on ideological differences.

Incumbents Steve Womack and Rick Crawford both won their primaries and do not expect difficult reelection battles in the general election.

Oregon:

Senate:


In the Republican Primary, physician Monica Wehby defeated State Rep Jason Conger and a handful of minor candidates to win the nomination to challenge Democratic Incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley. Wehby, a pediatric neurosurgeon, has run close with Merkley in recent polling and is a candidate garnering broad support from the business community in Oregon and nationally. This past weekend, Wehby faced a scandal involving "stalking" a former boyfriend and it remains to be seen how that resolves itself with voters.

House:

All Oregon incumbents won their primaries and none are expected to have difficult reelection fights in the general election.

Pennsylvania:

House:


PA-6: In the race to replace retiring Rep Jim Gerlach, nominations were formalized for Republican Ryan Costello and Democrat Manan Trivedi. Costello is a business-oriented County Commissioner and Trivedi is a physician and Iraq War veteran who previously ran twice against Gerlach. Neither faced primary opposition and though the district leans Republican, Trivedi is an experienced candidate with a strong biography that could make the seat competitive.

PA-8: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick will face Democratic challenger Kevin Strouse who defeated Shaughnessy Naughton in the Democratic primary 53-46 and presents a potentially serious challenge to Fitzpatrick in this suburban Philadelphia district though Fitzpatrick has consistently outperformed other Republicans in the district.

PA-9: Congressman Bill Shuster easily held off tea party oriented challenger Art Halvorson who partly self-funded a challenge to the incumbent. Shuster is not expected to have a significant general election challenge.

PA-13: In one of the most interesting races of the day, State Rep. Brendan Boyle handily won the Democratic nomination in this heavily Democratic open seat vacated by Allyson Schwartz. With four compelling and talented candidates, each with very different appeals and paths to victory, Boyle gathered almost 55% of the vote. The general election is not expected to be competitive.

All other Pennsylvania incumbents won their primaries and are not expecting difficult re-election fights.
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2014 Most Vulnerable Governors

9/3/2013

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Stakes in the States Series

There are 36 states with governor’s races in 2014. The current party breakdown for governorships is 30 Republican and 20 Democratic. There are currently six open seats in AR, AZ, NE, MD, MA and TX meaning there are 30 governors running for re-election. Despite Republicans having a ten seat advantage, several current Republican governors won election in the Tea Party wave of 2010 and nine Republican governors are up in states that Obama won in 2012. As such, Republican governors are now running for re-election in states that are far more moderate than they’ve governed, leaving them more vulnerable than their Democratic counterparts. Below is a list of the top four most vulnerable Republicans and top four most vulnerable Democrats running for re-election in 2014. We’ve provided an overview as to why they are at risk and listed the most recent race ratings from several top political analysts as well as those from BIPAC.

Top Four Vulnerable Republicans

Gov. Rick Snyder (MI)
BIPAC: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Leans Republican
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -8

Snyder’s approval ratings dropped drastically after signing Michigan’s “right-to-work” law last December. While it has improved in the past few months, it has not fully recovered. His recent decisions regarding Detroit’s bankruptcy have helped him with approval ratings, but his support for expanding Medicaid is now costing him with Republicans. This is a state that Obama won in 2008 and 2012.

Gov. Paul LePage (ME) BIPAC: Toss Up/Lean D Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Dem/Indy; changed from Toss Up on 8/8/13 538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -12   LePage has faced attacks from both sides of the aisle during his time in office, most recently with his own party over Maine’s budget, supporting a government shutdown over the legislature’s bipartisan agreement. The potential three-way race shaping up could help him again if he runs in 2014, just as it did in 2010.

Gov. Rick Scott (FL)
BIPAC: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -20

Rick Scott, one of the more vulnerable governors in the country, could see a primary challenge from his own party. His approval ratings have been improving a bit recently, with Florida’s economy regaining some strength and his reversal to support Medicaid expansion in Florida (though he was unable to win legislative support for it).

Gov. Tom Corbett (PA)
BIPAC: Toss Up/Lean D
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Toss Up
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -14

Corbett has a lot working against him for 2014. He has yet to get his “big three” campaign promises passed, including transportation funding, liquor privatization and public employee pension reform. Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is also often above that of the national average, and Corbett has been highly criticized for his handling of the Penn State scandal when he was attorney general.

Top Four Vulnerable Democrats

Gov. Dan Malloy (CT)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Leans Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval +6

Malloy faced a large drop in approval ratings when he signed the largest tax hike in Connecticut’s history, during his first year as governor. Connecticut has also been ranked the worst state for economic growth the past two years. Malloy has gained some popularity of late, due to his support of gun control legislation in the state. This may not however, be enough to offset the lack of support for his economic policies.

Gov. Lincoln Chafee (RI)
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss Up; changed from Likely Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -40

Chafee’s biggest problem for re-election is Rhode Island’s economy. For July 2013, it was ranked third in the nation, with an unemployment rate of 8.9 and was rated the second worst state for business by CNBC in 2013. Chafee has recently switched parties, from Independent to Democrat, which could help his chances at winning re-election.

Gov. Pat Quinn (IL) 
BIPAC: Lean D
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Toss Up, has this highlighted as a potential retirement
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Likely Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval -24

Quinn’s approval ratings are so low it is very possible he will face a primary challenger, which is where he will be most vulnerable in the deep blue state. Like several of the governors on this list, Quinn’s unpopularity has a lot to do with the economy. Illinois has faced major budget problems under Quinn, including a $100 billion pension crisis; the worst faced by any US state. Quinn has halted payments for state lawmakers until they pass pension reform and is now being sued by members of his own party for the pay freeze.

Gov. Hickenlooper (CO)
BIPAC: Likely D
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Solid D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic; changed from Safe Democratic on 6/20/13
538/NYT Apr. 8: Net Job Approval +33

Hickenlooper could be potentially vulnerable for two main noneconomic reasons- his recent stances on the death penalty and gun control legislation. A Quinnipiac survey found that his handling on both issues, granting temporary reprieve to a man on death row, and supporting gun control legislation, went against public opinion in Colorado. Whether or not these will be enough to make Hickenlooper a one term governor has yet to be seen.

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Redistricting: The Ins & Outs of the New House and Senate Lines

7/9/2013

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Pennsylvania
Guest Blogger Series

By Christopher Nicholas

Political Director of the Pennsylvania Business Council

The country can now close the books on its decennial redistricting process as the last holdout — Pennsylvania’s state House and Senate maps — are now complete and street legal. The Supreme Court voted unanimously in May to approve the second set of maps produced by the Legislative Reapportionment Commission (LRC), which had been under review for nearly a year. As the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote, “In their unanimous decision, written by Chief Justice Ronald D. Castille, the three Republican and three Democratic justices concluded that the revised plan ‘complies with the Pennsylvania Constitution, which shall hereby have the force of law, beginning with the 2014 election cycle.’”

What follows is a look at some of the statistical quirks of our new districts. All state House members and those state Senators in even-numbered districts will run in the new districts in 2014. The state redistricting process re-balances the 203 state House and 50 state Senate districts to reflect changes in population within the state. Last decade saw strong growth in the Harrisburg – Lehigh Valley – Philly suburbs region plus Centre County, while most of western Pennsylvania and especially Pittsburgh, saw declines in population.

All the numbers quoted here are derived from the political data company Labels & List’s VoterMapping.com system. And remember that voter registration lists change every day as people move into new area and/or change their registration, etc.

State House

Ironically, 111 House districts (55 percent) have more registered Democrats than Republicans while the GOP holds 111 (55 percent) of the seats in the Chamber. The House District with the most registered voters is the 137th (Joe Emrick – R) located in northeastern Northampton County, with 54,257 voters while the 127th (Tom Caltagirone – D) in Reading has the fewest, with just 26,104. That’s a whopping 108 percent swing between the number of registered voters in those districts– but remember that districts are drawn based on total population, not registered voters. This gives Emrick slightly more job security as well, since it would cost any challenger more money to message into that district via direct mail, which despite the rise in cable TV advertising, is still the dominant form of voter communication in most districts.

Remember too that Emrick’s part of the state has experienced strong growth since the Census was taken in 2010 while Reading has not, so the 137th has significantly more people now.

The 60th District (Jeff Pyle – R) in Armstrong and Indiana counties contains the most Republicans of any House District, with 24,982, while the 37th in Lancaster (Mindy Fee – R) has the highest percentage, 64.5 percent. Conversely, the House District with the fewest Republicans is the 201st (Stephen Kinsey – D) in Philadelphia, with just 1,199. (Imagine having to get GOP petition signatures in those neighborhoods.) The neighboring 200th District (Cherelle Parker – D) is home to the most Democrats, with 39,920, but Rep. Kinsey’s 201st owns the highest percentage of Democrats, at 91.5 percent.

Note the wide discrepancy between the most Republican registered district, the 37th which has 64.5 percent, and the most Democratic district, 91.5 percent. When analysts talk about the fact that Democrats are more highly clustered, this is what they are talking about. The 99th House District in Lancaster (Gordon Denlinger – R) has the fewest Democrats, with 6,157, or just 22.5 percent.

Incredibly, 17 House districts have more Independent voters than Republicans; not surprisingly they are clustered in Pittsburgh (19th, 23rd and 24th) and Philadelphia (175th, 181st, 182nd, 186th, 188th, 190th, 191st, 192nd, 195th, 197th, 198th, 200th, 201st, 203rd). Fourteen of those districts are represented by either African American or Hispanic Democrats; there are white Democrats in the other three — 23rd (Dan Frankel), 175th (Mike O’Brien) and 182nd (Brian Sims). The State College-centered 77th District (Scott Conklin -D) has the highest percentage of Independents in a district, at 26 percent.

Steve Santasiero of the 31st District (Bucks County) is the Democrat in the seat with the most Republican voters, while Rick Mirabito of the 83rd District is the Democrat in the district with the highest percentage of Republicans, at 48.5 percent. Both are perennial targets of the House Republican Campaign Committee, although Santasiero and Mirabito took 58 percent and 59 percent respectively in their 2012 re-elections.

Conversely, the Republican in the seat with the most Democratic voters is Joe Emrick of the 137th District. Interestingly, the GOP Representative with the highest percentage of Democrats (61 percent) is John Taylor — the new Chair of the Philadelphia Republican City Committee. Emrick won with 61 percent in 2012 while Taylor took 57 percent of the vote then.

State Senate

In the upper chamber, 26 Senate districts (52 percent) have more registered Democrats than Republicans while the GOP holds 27 seats (54 percent) there.

The 4th District of Philadelphia & Montgomery counties (LeAnna Washington- D) has the most registered voters in the state, with 175,416. Meanwhile Republican Gene Yaw, of the 23rd District — part of Susquehanna, all of Lycoming, Bradford & Sullivan counties — holds the fewest voters, 123,849. That’s a 42 percent swing between the 4th and the 23rd.

Lancaster County’s 36th District (the retiring Mike Brubaker – R) contains the most Republicans of any Senate district, with 82,047. The 4th District has the most Democrats, with 133,436.

The 1st District (Larry Farnese – D) and the 3rd District (Shirley Kitchen -D), both in Philadelphia, each contain more Independents than Republicans. The new 40th District, of Monroe and Northampton counties, has the highest percentage of Independent voters, at 18 percent, while the 18th District (Lisa Boscola – D) in Northampton and Lehigh counties is the district with most Independent voters, with 27,244.

The Republican-held seat with the smallest percentage of GOP voters is the 16th, (Pat Browne), with just 36 percent. His seat loses its more Republican section in Monroe County and is now fully contained within Lehigh County. If re-elected next year, and barring any surprises elsewhere, he will represent the largest city (Allentown) of any member of his Caucus. Sen. Randy Vulakovich would represent a small portion of Pittsburgh should he run and win re-election next year in the much-altered 38th District. The Democrat-held seat with smallest percentage of Democrats is the 19th of Chester County, (Andy Dinniman) with 40.89 percent; he easily won re-election last year in his old district.

Click here to view the article


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State Unemployment Rates

6/5/2013

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The economy is always a major headline in elections, especially unemployment rates. When looking at the unemployment numbers for the states that have governors up for reelection in 2014, 14 states currently have unemployment rates higher than the national average of 7.5%. How significantly will these numbers affect the elections? While it is true that several of the nation’s most unpopular governors are on this list, including Chafee (I-RI), Quinn (D-IL) and Corbett (R-PA), other governors with high unemployment rates are relatively popular. Nevada has one of the highest unemployment rates right now with 9.6% unemployment, yet Gov. Sandoval (R) has positive approval ratings. While unemployment rates may not predict the outcomes of races, it is certainly a factor to keep in mind going into the 2014 elections.
Unemployment
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