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Primary Recap: TN, HI, CT, MN & WI 

8/13/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

Tennessee

Senate:

Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) beat back a challenge from Tea Party candidate state Rep. Joe Carr last Thursday, 50% to 41%.  There were several other Republicans in the race as well, though none garnered more than 5% of the vote each.   Tennessee was the last chance for Tea Party groups to take out an incumbent Senator this cycle, after failing to take down McConnell in Kentucky, Cochran in Mississippi, Graham in South Carolina and Roberts in Kansas.  While Carr was a more credible and less controversial candidate than others, such as Milton Wolf, Alexander took his primary challenges seriously and starting rally his base early in the campaign, leaving little money or support left for Carr. While the Tea Party has had some success in 2014, it is clear that taking on incumbents is still an uphill battle.  Senator Alexander is safe in the general.

House:

TN-03:  Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R) narrowly beat his primary challenger, Weston Wamp, 51% to 49%.  Wamp positioned himself as a moderate candidate, trying to win the seat that his dad, Zach Wamp, once held.  This primary was not the traditional tea-party/establishment race we have seen this cycle, but it was very close and another example of how hard it is to beat an incumbent, even with a good candidate in a district that isn't ideal for the incumbent.  Fleishman has never won a majority in the primary but this was the first time there weren't multiple candidates to split the remaining vote.

TN-04:  One Tea Party oriented candidate could find success in Tennessee, Rep. Scott DesJarlais.  DesJarlais faced an extremely competitive challenge from state Sen. Jim Tracy, who had the backing of the Tennessee business community, Republican establishment and outraised and outspent DesJarlais.  Much of DesJarlais' trouble came from the scandals that plagued him in 2012, however, two years is a long time for voters.  Many appeared to have forgiven DesJarlais for his digressions, and were more focused on his conservative policies in the House and his recent disclosure that he has cancer, both helping his re-election bid.  DesJarlais is currently ahead by 35 votes, but the race is still under consideration and has not been finalized by the Secretary of State. Some absentee and provisional ballots may remain and Tracy can call for a recount.

Hawaii

Senate:

The most competitive Democratic Senate primary to take place this cycle is still too close to call.  After Saturday's election, Sen. Brian Schatz currently leads Rep. Colleen Hanabusa by 1,635 votes.   The special election is for the final two years of the late Sen. Daniel Inouye (D), who passed away in December, 2012.  Inouye had requested that Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) appoint Rep. Hanabusa to serve the remainder of his term after he passed, but Abercrombie instead named his lieutenant governor, Brian Schatz, setting up the beginnings of the primary challenge.  While the Republicans' intraparty fight is playing out in Senate races across the country, the Hawaii race is a microcosm of what is going on within the Democratic Party.  It pits Schatz, a young, very liberal Democratic against Hanabusa, a more moderate liberal and senior candidate.  Schatz has gained the support of the Democratic establishment, liberal groups and Presidents Obama while Hanabusa has gained the endorsement of Emily's List.   Two precincts have not held their elections yet due to Tropical Storm Iselle, and will hold their elections on Friday.  Those results could have an impact on the primary.  The eventual winner of the primary faces businessman and former state Rep. Cam Cavasso (R), but the seat is likely to stay in Democratic hands.

House:


HI-01: State Rep. Mark Takai easily won the crowded Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Hanabusa, with 45% of the vote.  Former Rep. Charles Djou won the Republican nomination.  The district leans Democratic but with a competitive Governor's race and a talented candidate on the GOP side in Djou who has held the seat before, this race could be competitive.

Connecticut

There were no competitive primaries in Connecticut.

Minnesota


Senate:

Businessman Mike McFadden (R) won the GOP primary to take on Sen. Al Franken (D), with 72% of the vote.  McFadden was the GOP endorsed candidate going into the primary and was favored to win.  Franken, who won in 2008 by only 312 votes, was expected to be one of the Republicans' top targets in 2014.  Franken however, has done a good job of winning over his critics and is currently favored to win re-election though Obama has surprisingly low approval ratings in the state and McFadden has the ability to spend substantially on the race through personal funds and has demonstrated a strong ability to raise money.  Franken has already spent almost $15 million, more than any other candidate to date, and remains under 50% in polling, a dangerous place for incumbents.  Republicans believe Minnesota is the state most likely among the "second tier" states of VA, NH, OR and NM to jump to the highly competitive category as we approach November.

House:

MN-06: Former State Rep. Tom Emmer (R) won the Republican primary with 72% of the vote to succeed retiring Rep. Michele Bachmann (R).  Emmer already won the GOP party's endorsement at the August convention and was expected to win the primary over Anoka County Commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah.  Emmer was able to bring together a wide base of support, from the Freedom Club to the U.S. Chamber.  He faces Sartell mayor Joe Perske, but this is a very Republican seat and Emmer should be safe.

MN-08: The key players in this competitive race have been set for a while, with Rep. Rick Nolan (D) being challenged by Mills Fleet Farm Vice President Stewart Mills, III (R).  This northern, rural, iron range district has been getting more and more competitive over the years, and Mills has proved himself a credible candidate.  He has working class appeal and his family's farm supply stores are a staple of small towns across the district.  Mills, a 42 year old with shoulder length hair has a unique appeal and polling shows this is a tight race.

MN-07: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) is being challenged by state Sen. Torrey Westrom (R), in what is expected to be a competitive race.   Peterson, one of the last few Blue Dogs in the House, has been endorsed by the BIPAC Action Fund, several of our Minnesota based business members and NFIB.  Peterson is one of the few remaining farmers in Congress and is ranking member on the Agriculture committee having demonstrated a strong tendency to work across the aisle to find consensus on issues.  With Peterson and Westrom being on the same side of many policy issues, Westrom's campaign is focusing on the need for change, and linking Peterson to the Obama administration.  Right now, Peterson has a small advantage, but this is race to pay attention to.

Wisconsin

House:

WI-06:  State Sen. Glenn Grothman won the GOP nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Tom Petri (R).  Grothman received 39% of the vote, while state Sen. Joe Leibham got 29% and state Rep. Duey Stroebel received 29%.  Grothman was running to the right of the GOP candidates in the group, while Stroebel labeled himself as an outsider and was able to self-fund.  Leibham had a lot of the business community support, including ABC- Wisconsin and the Dairy Business Association.  The Democratic nominee is Winnebago county executive Mark Harris, though Grothman has the advantage in this Republican district.
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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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Iowa Special Election

6/22/2014

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IA-3:  No candidate in the 3rd district received over 35% on the June 3 primary, sending this race to a convention that took place this past Saturday. David Young, who came in fifth place in the primary, has won the nomination.  Young, Sen. Chuck Grassley's former Chief of Staff, first entered the Senate race for Tom Harkin's (D) open seat, then changed and ran for the 3rd district, which is open due to Tom Latham's (R) retirement.  Young faces Democrat state Sen. Staci Appel in the general.  With Republicans nominating a more mainstream, less antagonizing candidate than many expected to come out of a convention, this seat is expected to be very competitive.

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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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State Unemployment Rates

6/5/2013

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The economy is always a major headline in elections, especially unemployment rates. When looking at the unemployment numbers for the states that have governors up for reelection in 2014, 14 states currently have unemployment rates higher than the national average of 7.5%. How significantly will these numbers affect the elections? While it is true that several of the nation’s most unpopular governors are on this list, including Chafee (I-RI), Quinn (D-IL) and Corbett (R-PA), other governors with high unemployment rates are relatively popular. Nevada has one of the highest unemployment rates right now with 9.6% unemployment, yet Gov. Sandoval (R) has positive approval ratings. While unemployment rates may not predict the outcomes of races, it is certainly a factor to keep in mind going into the 2014 elections.
Unemployment
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Stakes in the States: Mayoral Rundown

4/8/2013

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Mayors and mayoral elections often fall below the national radar, even though they are an important part of our state and local governance. As America observes a Congress unable to balance its own budget, heads of municipalities around the country have been making tough decisions and rising to the needs of their constituents for years. Not only have they been struggling to govern in a weak economy, they’ve also been tasked with simultaneously saving and cutting pensions, reducing school budgets while improving education and cutting law enforcement while at the same time keeping their citizens safe. And most recently they’ve had to cope with a lack of federal funding as sequestration cuts have gone into effect.

As of April 2nd, 64 cities already held mayoral elections or appointments this year. Most mayoral offices are elected by voters, but a significant number of mayors are appointed by local councils. There are an additional 607 mayoral elections scheduled to be held in 23 states throughout 2013. Cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland and Houston have elections this year, as well as the country’s two most populous cities – New York City and Los Angeles.

Serving as mayor is often a stepping stone for higher office such as congress, governor or even president. Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McRory (R) is now the governor of North Carolina. Former governor of Hawaii, Linda Lingle (R) was first the mayor of Maui. Current U.S. Senators Mark Begich (D) and Dianne Feinstein (D) got their starts as mayors in Alaska and California. And three U.S. presidents were mayors before moving to the White House: Calvin Coolidge (Northampton, MA), Grover Cleveland (Buffalo, NY) and Andrew Johnson (Greeneville, TN). Perhaps 2013 will produce the next batch of future senators, governors or a future president.

Below is an overview of the top mayoral races making headlines in 2013:

Boston
The 2013 Boston mayoral election looks to be not only the most exciting mayoral race in Boston history, but possibly in the entire country in November. Incumbent Thomas Menino (D), the longest-serving mayor in Boston’s history, recently announced that he will not run for a sixth term due to health issues. After serving the city of Boston for 20 years as a popular public official, Menino’s departure is going to trigger a free for all for this race. Additionally, since defeating incumbents is very difficult in Boston mayoral elections, now is an opportune time for candidates to enter the race. So far, the only major candidate that has declared is John R. Connolly, member of the Boston City Council. Other declared minor candidates include former Boston police officer Charles Clemons and 2011 Boston City Council candidate Will Dorcena. With Menino’s recent announcement, many more candidates are expected to enter the race. Potential candidates include City Councilors Rob Consalvo and Tito Jackson, Representative Martin Walsh (D), and former Boston City Council President Michael Flaherty (D). The filing period for the mayoral election ends on May 21st, with the primary election taking place on September 24th. The top two candidates from the primary election will advance to the general election, which will be held on November 5th.Note: The Boston race is a nonpartisan election and several of the candidates above do not wish to be identified with a party affiliation, however backgrounds and professional experience show each as having ties to the Democratic Party.

New York City
NYC is the largest city in the country and has a population larger than 39 states. As a result, previous NYC mayors such as Ed Koch (D), Rudy Giuliani (R) and current mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) have left lasting legacies and became national figures in U.S. politics. As the race for Bloomberg’s successor takes shape, it looks like the current crop of candidates is going to have some big shoes to fill. There are four Democratic candidates who have declared and two Republicans: Christine Quinn (D) City Council Speaker, Bill Thompson (D) Former Comptroller & 2009 mayoral nominee, Public Advocate Bill De Blasio (D), Comptroller John Liu (D), MTA Chairman Joe Lhota (R), and billionaire John Catsimatidis (R). Recent polls have shown that a Democrat is heavily favored to win this race, which would make it the first time a Democrat has won since 1989. Christine Quinn has been the front runner, but has had to contend with close ties to Bloomberg. She has tried to distance herself while the other candidates have sought to exploit that alliance. She has also had to address concerns regarding her temperament and bellicose personality. The filing deadline to run is July 11th, the primary is September 10th, and if no candidate receives 40% of the vote a runoff will be held September 24th. The general election will be held November 5th.

Los Angeles
The Los Angeles mayoral race is a nonpartisan race. Current Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa (D) has termed out, creating an open seat. The election for mayor is conducted through California’s top-two primary system, in which the top-two vote getters, regardless of party move on to the general election held May 21st. The primary was already held on March 5th and Eric Garcetti (D) and Wendy Greuel (D) emerged from the election as the top-two vote getters. Garcetti took 33% and Greuel took 29%. Eric Garcetti (D) is a city councilman and has played up his Mexican heritage. He’s backed by the Teamsters and the teachers union. He just received the endorsement of Jan Perry (the third place finisher in the election and favorite of the African American voters) and most of the Los Angeles City Council. Wendy Greuel (D) is the City Controller, and if elected, would be LA’s first female mayor. She’s received endorsements from the SEIU, LA County Federation of Labor, Department of Water and Power Union and Bill Clinton. The race is too close to call with the most recent polls giving Garcetti a slight edge. The election is expected to have low voter turnout, so whichever candidate gets the most supporters to the polls will be the winner.

Seattle
The 2013 Seattle mayoral election will give the city a chance to show their displeasure with current mayor Mike McGinn (D). McGinn, who will seek reelection for a second term in office, has had a difficult tenure characterized by unpopular stances on issues and poor demonstration of leadership. Early speculation indicates that the city does not want another four years of McGinn, and the winner of the primary election will be the favorite to take the office. Currently, several candidates have declared that they will be running for the position of mayor: Tim Burgess, Bruce Harrell, Kate Martin, Ed Murray, Charlie Staadecker, and Peter Steinbrueck. Of these candidates, City Councilmembers Harrell and Burgess, former City Councilmember Steinbrueck, and state Senator Murray appear to be the most formidable opponents to McGinn. The filing deadline for mayoral candidates is May 17th, and the primary election will occur on August 6th. The top two candidates from the primary election will advance to the general election, which will take place on November 5th. Municipal elections in the state of Washington are non-partisan elections. Note: Because this is a nonpartisan election, several of the candidates above do not wish to be identified with a party affiliation. However backgrounds and professional experience show with the exception of Burgess and Staadecker, each has ties to the Democratic Party.
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