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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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BIPAC Action Fund Endorsements: AL, GA Runoffs & Senate Candidates

7/9/2014

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By Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

This week's EIS focuses on the BIPAC Action Fund endorsed candidates.  Four endorsed candidates in Alabama and Georgia are in crucial runoff elections taking place in July.  We are also recapping our list of endorsed Senate candidates to date.  In the following weeks we will focus on our endorsed candidates in the House.  BIPAC has actively worked with our members with operations in the states, with other business organizations and with the business community on the ground in the states, so the endorsed candidates are very much the consensus choice of businesses in the states.  We strongly encourage all of our members to make these candidates a priority. 

Upcoming runoffs: AL, GA

Alabama: July 15

In the 6th district, BIPAC endorsed candidate State Rep. Paul DeMarco is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Spencer Bachus (R).  DeMarco is in a runoff with Gary Palmer, Alabama Policy Institute co-founder.  Palmer has been endorsed by the Club for Growth.  DeMarco has an average rating of 95% from the Alabama NFIB, showing his commitment to the business community.  

Georgia: July 22

There are three runoffs that the business community should get involved in - the Senate race, 1st district and 10th district.  In the Senate, BIPAC endorsed candidate Rep. Jack Kingston (R) faces businessman Dave Perdue.  The winner of the runoff faces Michelle Nunn (D), in what is expected to be a competitive race.  In the 1st district, BIPAC endorsed candidate Buddy Carter (R) is running in Kingston's open seat, against Bob Johnson.  Carter, a businessman, has the support of the local business community and an A+ rating from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce while Johnson is running on tea party principles.  The 10th district has a similar dynamic, with the business community rallying around BIPAC endorsed candidate Mike Collins (R).  Collins has a small business background in the trucking industry and is running against Pastor Jody Hice, another tea party oriented candidate. 

BIPAC Senate Endorsements

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating:  Likely Republican


Rep. Shelley Moore Capito easily won the GOP nomination for the open Senate seat. Capito scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  She faces Democratic nominee Secretary of State Natalie Tennant in the general election.  Polling shows Capito with a double digit lead, making this seat a prime opportunity to move from adverse to business as it was when held by Rockefeller to pro-business as it would be with Capito.  www.capitoforsenate.com

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican


In one of the most competitive GOP primaries this cycle, Sen. Thad Cochran survived a runoff election with state Senator Chris McDaniel.   Senator Cochran scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and has a long history as a champion of free markets and working towards a pro-growth economic climate.  McDaniel was a Tea Party candidate backed by conservative groups such as Club for Growth.  Cochran now faces former Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the general election, but is expected to hold his seat. www.ThadForMississippi.com

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican


Senator Cornyn easily won his primary election back in March.  He faced several primary opponents, including Rep. Steve Stockman.  Cornyn has been a consistent business champion and is being uniformly supported by the business community in Texas and around the country.  Cornyn faces minimal opposition from David Alameel (D) in the general election. www.JohnCornyn.com

Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Leans Republican


Rep. Daines is running against Senator John Walsh (D) in a competitive general election.  Walsh was appointed to the seat in February, after Senator Baucus (D) resigned to become Ambassador to China.  Daines is a pro-business candidate who was been endorsed by BIPAC and the U.S. Chamber in 2012 when running for the at large Congressional seat and has proven to be a strong advocate for the business community during his time in the House.  Daines offers the best chance to make this seat reliably pro-business in its orientation.  www.stevedaines.com

Joni Ernst (R-IA): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


State Senator Joni Ernst earned the GOP nomination with 56% of the vote, avoiding a nominating convention.  She now faces Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in what is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Ernst has earned 100% on the Iowa Prosperity Project's 2011 State Senate voting record and 90% on the 2012 State Senate voting record.  She has consolidated support within Iowa's business community over the last month and has attracted support from across the ideological spectrum.  www.joniforiowa.com

Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


Rep. Cory Gardner is challenging incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D).   Gardner easily won the Republican nomination and has been a friend to the business community in the House.  There are few races featuring a greater contrast between the candidates in terms of their orientation towards supporting pro-growth economic policies.  Gardner scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and is working closely with employers in Colorado to expand their operations and create a more comfortable operating environment.  Polling shows this race to be a toss-up at this point, so your engagement is important.  www.corygardnerforsenate.com

Terri Lynn Land (R-MI): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is running against Rep. Gary Peters (D) for the Michigan open Senate seat. While Michigan went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012, this race is considered a tossup. Polls have the two candidates within 2-5 points from one another. Land has shown impressive fundraising to date and her record as Secretary of State, personal interviews, and history managing a family real estate development company in Michigan has shown her to be a friend of business. She is strongly supported by many of Michigan's leading employers and is the very clear choice of the business community in Michigan. Rep. Peters scored only 8% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record. www.terrilynnland.com

Rep. James Lankford (R-OK): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican


Rep. James Lankford won the Republican nomination for the open Senate special election to replace Sen. Coburn (R) and is now most likely going to be the next Senator from Oklahoma.  The Republican primary was the competitive race, with several candidates running, including state House Speaker T.W. Shannon.  Lankford scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Prosperity Project voting record. www.jameslankford.com

Thom Tillis (R-NC): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


State House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) won the primary election with over 40% of the vote, avoiding a potentially damaging runoff.  Tillis is challenging Senator Kay Hagan (D) in the general.  Tillis was the preferred GOP nominee, due to his consistent record supporting economic growth and job creation in the state legislature. Hagan consistently scores less than 40% on leading business organization legislative scorecards.  This race is currently a toss-up, and a great opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business candidate.  www.ThomTillis.com

Rep. Jack Kingston (R- GA): Runoff election, July 22
BIPAC Rating: Lean Republican


Rep. Jack Kingston in running in the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R).  Kingston is in a runoff with businessman Dave Perdue.  Kingston has a solid business record, scoring an 87% average on BIPAC's Prosperity Project voting records, 85% on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's cumulative voting record and 86% on NAM's 112th Congress voting record.  Whoever advances out of the runoff faces a credible Democratic opponent in Michelle Nunn (D).  This could shape up to be a very competitive race in the general. www.jackkingston.org
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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Social Media and the 2014 Midterm Elections

7/2/2014

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By Jason Langsner, Director, New Media and Communications

Pew Research's Internet and American Life Project's most recent "Social Media Update" tells us that 73% of online adults are now using social media and Facebook is the dominant network.  We've all heard the data on Facebook usage:  802 million daily active users globally and 1.28 billion users logging in at least once a month.  

That is a lot of people. 

BIPAC is running an ad campaign on Facebook to influence American potential voters with our pro-prosperity message.  Our ad targets approximately 175 million Americans who are 18+ on Facebook. 

That is a lot of potential voters.

You can't say something about Facebook and an organization's social strategy these days, without quickly following it up with Twitter.  500 million tweets are sent each and every day, on average, by Twitter's 255 million users who log in at least once a month.  That is 5,787 tweets a second.  Not all of them are about kittens and pop music.  Politics is one of the trending topics across Twitter.

23% of Twitter users are American, which is about 58.7 million people (or about 1/3 of the reach of Facebook).  Still a lot of people.  Especially if you consider that in the last midterm elections, in 2010, 90.7 million ballots were counted across the United States.  So a candidate or political organization can reach a large percentage of potential voters by pushing content across social media, listening to potential voters, being responsive to constituents and potential voters online, presenting geo-targeted and personalized ads, and creating their own narrative by being self-publishers.  It is more than a 21st century direct mail program because it is a two-way form of communication.
Similar to what BIPAC is doing on Facebook, we are also presenting ads on Twitter with a goal to influence potential 18+ voters.  But an ad strategy is far from a social strategy.  A true social strategy is based on content, listening to your audience, a sharing strategy, and participating in broader topical conversations.  The root is "social" for a reason...

I use our online political advocacy work purely to set the stage for what we are seeing with a lot of creative digital campaign work by the BIPAC Action Fund's endorsed candidates.  And in this blog post, I wanted to share with you some data from what we've seen in the primaries and what we expect in the general.

Of all online adults, the following approximate demographics are on Facebook and Twitter (according to the aforementioned Pew study's sample size):
Picture
Therefore, a campaign's social strategy isn't just put in place to reach out to young voters.  

The power of social media and real-time reporting additionally provides organizations like ours and yours with intelligence that wasn't easily attainable 10 years ago about how candidates are reaching these voting blocks.  

Comparing how many followers Candidate A has compared to Candidate B doesn't really tell us much.  But comparing and contrasting how "influential" Campaign A is compared to Campaign B is across all of social media tells us a great deal of information about how they are connecting with potential voters.

Case-in-point, Eric Cantor's campaign primary channels on social media (e.g. Facebook and Twitter) had 404,901 followers as of this past weekend.  Dave Brat's had 22,744.  Brat won the primary with 36,110 votes as compared to Eric Cantor's 28,898 votes.  The gap of 404.9k to 22.7k shrinks considerably after the vote if you ask yourself how many of the 400k-plus live in Virginia's 7th district (NOTE - the district has a total population of 758k) v how many live elsewhere.  It is the difference between data and intelligence.  What I find more telling is how influential those channels are across social media.  That provides a better litmus test of how well they are being received in their district/state as-well-as across the broader political spectrum.  Cantor's campaign channels scored a 73/100 on Klout while Brat's scored a 70/100.  Both strong numbers.  And pretty much identical.  This is telling.  The campaigns online influence was essentially equal as of our pulling of the data on Klout.com.  And we all know who outspent who and by how much.  Again, an ad strategy is not a content strategy.  Content and the message is king - and as BIPAC preaches, the messenger and the trust that they have with the potential audience is critically important.

A second piece of intelligence we can glean from social media is looking at the sentiment of the conversation revolving around a candidate online.  Let's look at the Mississippi Senate Runoff - for instance.  Thad Cochran won the runoff.  And a lot is being said about it in media.  Unfortunately, not a lot is being said about our industry's efforts to Get Out the Vote.  It wasn't just Democrats voting in a Republican primary...  But I'll leave that kind of analysis up to BIPAC's Political Affairs department.  What, I will add to the storyline is that for every one negative thing said about the BIPAC endorsed Thad Cochran on social media over the last 30 days, there have been 28 positive or neutral things said about the senior Mississippi Senator (according to SocialMention.com data).  Like the VA-07 example, McDaniel had about 14k more followers on social media than Cochran but they were pretty much equally influential across social media.  And this 28:1 favorability of all dialogue on social media tells us a great deal.  Any brand would want that.  The sentiment around the "Chris McDaniel" brand was 13:1 favorable.

I've prepared some data on each of the BIPAC U.S. Senate endorsed candidates below.  It looks at their following and how influential they are on social media.  It also compares that against their primary challenger (if one existed or if it was a crowded field, I choose the individual who received the second most votes) and their general opponent.  Lastly it looks at how many votes they received in the primary.
Social Media and the Midterm Elections
Social Media and the Midterm Elections
Social Media and the Midterm Elections
If you have any questions about this analysis or if you would like BIPAC to do a similar analysis on another race, please contact langsner@bipac.org.
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Business and the Tea Party Insurgency

6/18/2014

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It is understood the GOP will maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which does not speak to "who" will control the House GOP. The exodus of so many senior Democrats is telling. Regarding governors, although the GOP will lose ground, the big gains Democrats hoped to achieve in state houses isn't going to materialize. All eyes are then focused on whether the GOP will regain the U.S. Senate.
 
Washington wisdom suggests outright control of the Senate is the GOP's to lose. The environment seems consistent with that. The public leans towards GOP control of Congress. The President's approval is under water by double digits in key states and some core issues are going south for their party. Historically, the party of the White House doesn't do well in the off year election during a President's second term and given their base historically doesn't show up well in off year elections anyway, therefore Democrats face a potentially toxic political environment in November.
 
The math and the cadre of quality GOP candidates also seems to suggest a GOP advantage. The GOP needs six seats to regain the majority outright. Three of those seem certain, assuming the GOP candidates in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia keep their eye on the ball. That leaves a target rich environment of another eleven or so potentially competitive Senate races from which the GOP needs to win three, assuming they hold Georgia and Kentucky. In six of those eleven states, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina, the GOP candidate leads in three and the other three are legitimate jump balls. Let's not slice this to fine at this point. They are all close. There are five other races in Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia that lean Democratic but with numbers to iffy to provide much comfort. A little push from a legitimate wave and the close seats and anyone of these leaners could move in the GOP direction.

Still, the GOP has recently squandered similar opportunities. This time, however, it may be less about bad candidates than outdated campaigns. The recent upset of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia teaches us three obvious lessons; keeping your eye on the ball back home matters, money alone is no cure for taking your eye off the ball and the electorate everywhere is pretty angry at Washington arrogance. Maybe not so obvious, however, was the oft stated disdain for Leader Cantor's cozy relationship with "corporate influence."   While anti-big business, "crony capitalism" has been part of the Tea Party line for some time, it was full-throated the day after this unknown and underfunded candidate upset the Majority Leader even after being outspent 5 to 1.
 
As I was preparing my thoughts for this newsletter, Red State published an article entitled "Big Business is afraid of conservatives - and they should be." Although I don't buy the full narrative, it does speak to a growing belief among many that "corporate" America is as much a part of the problem as "big government" and hints that big, overt corporate support of candidates may not always be as helpful as it once was.
 
This carries a significant warning, less related to the rhetoric of the extreme right than it to the tactics used to defend against their insurgency. Congressman Ralph Hall (R-TX) had the support of the business "establishment" and lost in a run off.  Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) had the support of the establishment too and came in a close second in his primary and is forced to a runoff. Conversely, Tea Party targets Congressman Mike Simpson (R-ID) and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) made the ground game and personal voter contact mainstays of their campaigns and won handily. While it is obvious there was a significant difference in the capability of these candidates, it does suggest there is no substitute for real grassroots in this environment, even by, or especially by, business. Maybe we should keep our eye on the same ball.
 
Brad Dayspring, a former Cantor aide and NRSC Communications Director said last week, "one of the extremely valuable, must follow lessons is you have to adapt and run a modern campaign. Doing things the same old way in the current environment and with the current electorate isn't going to cut it anymore." Good advice for the GOP and for the business community.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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House Crossover Districts: Part 2 of 4

9/23/2013

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Today we continue our four part series in which BIPAC will analyze the upcoming 2014 House Crossover districts. House Crossover districts are the congressional districts where the U.S. Representative and the presidential candidate voted for by that district are of opposite parties. There are currently 26 House Crossover districts or 26 House members whose district voted for the presidential candidate of the opposite party. There are 15 incumbent Republicans serving in districts President Obama won and nine incumbent Democrats serving in districts Mitt Romney won. This series will analyze the incumbents, the districts and potential challengers as the political landscape for 2014 continues to evolve and take shape.

To see the full list of House Crossover districts visit the Political Analysis page of the BIPAC portal here.

David Valadao (R, CA 21)
Valadao is a House freshman, elected in 2012, who beat his opponent by double digits. He ran in an open seat created when former 21st District Congressman Jim Coston (D) ran in the newly created 16th District. The 21st District is known for its farming and agriculture, especially dairy, and Valadao has a solid background in dairy farming, as a managing partner of Valadao Dairy, which he started with his brothers. Valadao ran ahead of Obama in this district by four points in 2012, and Democrats blame their loss on a weak 2012 candidate who faced fundraising and debt issues. So far no credible opponents for 2014 have surfaced.

Tom Latham (R, IA 3)
Latham was first elected to Congress in 1995, representing the 5th Congressional District. Redistricting put in him the more competitive 4th District in 2012. Instead, he decided to run in the 3rd District, beating Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. Latham sits on the House Appropriations Committee, which aided him in 2012; he is the only Iowan on the committee. Latham’s 2014 opponents have already popped up, including former State Senator and businesswoman Staci Appel (D) and former factory worker Gabriel De La Cerda (D). This is a district to watch because of the importance of Iowa to presidential elections, as the Iowa caucuses provide the first indicators of which candidate might win the nomination of their party.

Jon Runyan (R, NJ 3)
Runyan, first elected in 2011, is a former football player for the Philadelphia Eagles. He ran ahead of Obama by four points in 2012 in a district that has both blue collar union families and middle/upper class suburban families. The district also has a large military and veteran presence, which Runyan has appealed to in the past years, voting against defense budget cuts and serving on the House Committee on Veterans Affairs. There are no declared opponents for 2014 yet.

Peter King (R, NY 2)
King has been in Congress since 1993 and is known for his moderate to conservative views and his strong support for the U.S. military. The 2nd District has not voted in favor of a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1992, with landslide Democratic wins in ’96, ’00, and ’08. This is a northeast district near the largest city in the country, so it should not be surprising that it supports Democratic presidential candidates, though King ran ahead of Obama by more than ten points. Although he has announced his intention to run for president in 2016, he is still gearing up for reelection in 2014. No Democratic candidates have emerged thus far.

John Barrow (D, GA 12)
Barrow won this district in 2012, which he first won in 2004, by a margin of 7.4% while Mitt Romney won this district by 11.8%. Barrow is a member of the dwindling group of Blue Dogs left in the House. The Blue Dogs are Democrats in the House known for their more conservative stances on issues like taxes and fiscal policy. Barrow’s seat has already been targeted by the NRCC. Georgia’s 12th District has voted for the Republican nominee for President not only in 2012, but for the past three presidential elections. After redistricting, the 12th District became even more Republican and Barrow was expected to face an uphill battle. However, issues with the Republican candidate’s campaign worked in Barrow’s favor, and he was able to pull through a win. Barrow already has competition in 2014, including businessman Rick Allen (R) and House Republican aide John Stone (R). This race will come down to the quality of the candidates and turnout.

Pete Gallego (D, TX 23)
The 23rd Congressional District is a true swing district, evenly split among Democrats and Republicans. In 2012, Gallego, a former Texas state representative, beat incumbent Rep. Francisoco Canseco (R) by 4.7%. A moderate Democrat, he was able to identify with the issues of the district and used his reputation for working effectively in a majority Republican legislature. The 23rd District has the largest border with Mexico of any U.S. district and has a massive oil industry, putting security, immigration and energy issues on the forefront of any campaign here. Gallego already has challengers in 2014, including businessman and former CIA operative Will Hurd (R) and physician Robert Lowry (R).

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