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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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Utah Primary Update

6/25/2014

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UT-4: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is retiring, giving the Republicans a top pick up opportunity.   Mitt Romney won the 4th district by over 30 points, and without Matheson on the ticket, Republicans have the advantage.

The Utah primary was yesterday, however the nominees for the 4th district were decided in a May convention. 

Mia Love, former Saratoga Springs Mayor and 2012 GOP candidate is the Republican nominee.  Attorney Doug Owens is the Democratic nominee.  This race is Love's to lose.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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Exit Polling Is Going To Look Very Different In Some States This Year

11/6/2012

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A strong indication of who is going to win the Presidential election comes from exit polling results. A conglomerate of news outlets, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News Channel, NBC and the AP, are responsible for creating preliminary results for viewers to get an early indication of who is going to win a certain state. This year, however, cutbacks have been put in place regarding how extensive the polling will be in certain states; in 19 states, AK, AR, DE, GA, HI, ID, KY, LA, NE, ND, OK, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV and WY, the barest form of polling will occur, as opposed to full reports being conducted in all states in election cycles past.

In previous election years, full reports were conducted in each state, with a series of questions posed to the people being interviewed. Among the questions were: for whom they were voting, which age group they belonged to, and which issues were most critical in leading up to a decision. Such reports will still be conducted in 31 states. In the other 19 states however, the exit polls have been stripped to a singular question of who the interviewed person is voting for. These polls are happening exclusively in non-battleground states where no surprises are expected to occur. One of the main disadvantages of this system is that extensive post-race analysis will not be available for all of the states.

The reasoning for such a system comes down to the conglomerate of news outlets wanting to dedicate their resources to the most critical states, thereby giving the public concise analysis in states that dictated the outcome of the election. Early voting has also proved to be a stumbling block for pollsters, who now are forced to conduct cell phone interviews, as opposed to in-person interviews, which has increased costs greatly.

While the citizens of every state will not be awarded with in-depth analysis of their state’s races, it serves a bigger purpose in giving the entire nation a better idea of where the Presidential races were won and lost.
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U.S. House OPEN SEATS (62)

11/5/2012

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Voters will elect at least 62 newcomers to the 113th Congress tomorrow. There are currently 62 open seats as a result of retirements, resignations & lost primary elections. For a list of where we can guarantee a new face see below.

U.S. House
OPEN SEATS (62)

AZ 1 HOLE
AZ 5 OPEN Flake (R)
AZ 9 ADDED

AR 4 OPEN Ross (D)

CA 1 OPEN Herger (R)
CA 2 OPEN Woolsey (D)
CA 8 OPEN Lewis (R)
CA 21 HOLE
CA 26 OPEN Gallegly (R)
CA 29 HOLE
CA 41 HOLE
CA 47 HOLE
CA 51 OPEN Filner (D)

CT 5 OPEN Murphy (D)

FL 3 Lost primary Stearns (R)
FL 6 HOLE
FL 9 ADDED
FL 19 OPEN Mack (R)
FL 22 ADDED

GA 9 ADDED

HI 2 OPEN Hirono (D)

IL 12 OPEN Costello (D)
IL 13 OPEN Johnson (R)

IN 2 OPEN Donnelly (D)
IN 5 OPEN Pence (R)
IN 6 OPEN Burton (R)

KY 4 OPEN Davis (R) VAC

MA 4 OPEN Frank (D)

MI 5 OPEN Kildee (D)
MI 11 OPEN McCotter (R) VAC

MO 2 OPEN Akin (R)

MT/AL OPEN Rehberg (R)

NV 1 OPEN Berkley (D)
NV 4 ADDED

NJ 10 OPEN Payne (D) VAC

NM 1 OPEN Heinrich (D)

NY 6 OPEN Ackerman (D)
NY 8 OPEN Towns (D)

NC 9 OPEN Myrick (R)
NC 11 OPEN Shuler (D)
NC 13 OPEN Miller (D)

ND A/L OPEN Berg (R)

OH 2 Lost primary Schmitt (R)
OH 3 HOLE
OH 14 OPEN LaTourette (R)

OK 1 Lost primary Sullivan (R)
OK 2 OPEN Boren (D)

PA 4 OPEN Platts (R)
PA 17 Lost primary Holden (D)

SC 7 ADDED

TX 14 OPEN Paul (R)
TX 16 Lost primary Reyes (D)
TX 20 OPEN Gonzalez (D)
TX 25 ADDED
TX 33 ADDED
TX 34 ADDED
TX 36 ADDED

UT 2 ADDED

WA 1 OPEN Inslee (D) VAC
WA 6 OPEN Dicks (D)
WA 10 ADDED

WI 2 OPEN Baldwin (D)

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Behind the Numbers

7/23/2012

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11

In 2012, there will be 11 states holding an election for Governor. Paying attention to these 11 winners will be important because odds are high that you will see future U.S. Senators, cabinet members and even names that will eventually appear on the ticket for president/vice-president.

In a few weeks I will go over the top gubernatorial contests this year and give you the likelihood that Republicans improve/Democrats gain on control of the highest state office (currently 29 Republican, 20 Democrat and 1 Independent).

States holding races for governor in 2012 – DE, IN, MO, MT, NH, NC, ND, UT, VT, WA and WV
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