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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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Bringing Back the Filibuster

3/7/2013

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The talking filibuster made its return to the front pages as Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) took to the Senate floor yesterday to block a vote on President Obama’s nomination of John Brennan to head the CIA.  It was a rare show of bipartisanship as Paul received support from fellow Republicans and a Democrat as he sought to bring attention to the use of unmanned drones and to find out if the government would use drones in the United States.  Just before noon on Wednesday, Paul began his filibuster saying, “I will speak until I can no longer speak.”  As it turns out, that was quite a while, finally ceding the floor at about 12:40 a.m. on Thursday.  All told, Paul spoke without leaving the floor of the Senate for almost 13 hours.

Of late, Senators tend to favor the threat of filibuster or use of Senate rules to block legislation rather than an epic talking filibuster like Paul’s.  The last lengthy filibuster was in 2010, when Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) spoke for more than 8 hours to oppose a tax-cut plan proposed by President Obama.  Today, to end a filibuster, a device known as cloture, requires 60 votes, but by talking and only yielding the floor for questions, Paul was able to keep going.

Speaking for almost 13 hours should be a record, shouldn’t it?  Although the talking filibuster has rarely been used in recent years, it has a long, storied past.  The longest filibuster on record belongs to Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina, clocking in at 24 hours, 18 minutes.  Thurmond sought to block civil rights legislation in 1957.  In addition to Thurmond, Senators Alfonse D’Amato (D-NY) and Wayne Morse (I-OR) both exceeded the 22 hour mark.  Senators Robert M. La Follette, Sr. (R-WI) and William Proxmire (D-WI) filibustered for more than 18 hours and 16 hours, respectively.  While he didn’t set any records, Senator Paul garnered national attention and managed to bring attention to the use of drones, even though it is unlikely this filibuster will keep Brennan from being confirmed.
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Current Event – Voter ID

10/11/2012

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Recent State Court Decisions Strike Down Voter ID Laws While Public Supports Voting Protections

In 2012, a number of states have attempted to pass election laws requiring voters to show a photo ID when voting. The laws are all backed by Republicans and have been passed in Texas, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and South Carolina as an attempt to prevent voter fraud. However, all of them have faced opposition in the courts with varying results.

A September 8-12 nationwide poll conducted by CBS News/New York Times showed that 70% of voters supported “efforts to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote” while 28% opposed voter ID measures. The poll shows that 76% of Independents, 94% of Republicans and 48% of Democrats support voter ID laws. Recent efforts to enact voter ID laws have become a political hot potato and have polarized elected Republicans and Democrats on an issue that at one time found bipartisan support as currently seen in polling numbers among voters.

According to data from the non-partisan National Conference of State Legislators (NCSL), 27 states have passed voter ID laws that will be used in the 2012 election with another 6 states passing voter ID laws that will be used starting in 2013 pending final approval from either a court or state legislature.

Pennsylvania voters will technically be asked to show a photo ID on Election Day, but they won’t be turned away if they don’t have one. The court essentially ruled that it won’t be enforced until after the election. Wisconsin’s voter ID law was ruled unconstitutional in March by a Circuit Court Judge and again by another judge in July.

Newly passed voter ID laws in New Hampshire and Virginia were given pre-clearance by the Department of Justice and will be in effect this November.

Due to the Voting Rights Act, Texas and South Carolina need approval from the Justice Department or a special panel of federal judges in Washington if they want to change election procedures. A federal panel unanimously ruled against the Texas law at the end of August due to a provision in the enacted legislation that would have potentially imposed too high of a financial requirement for some voters.

The ruling on South Carolina’s law was similar to the one in Pennsylvania. The bipartisan, three judge panel in Washington upheld the law and established it as constitutional, saying there was nothing inherently discriminatory in the law. However, voters won’t be asked to show a photo ID this election. The law won’t officially be fully enforced until next election cycle.

The issue of having voters present photo identification to register to vote and to actually vote will continue at statehouses across the country over the next few years. The likelihood that additional cases will head to the U.S. Supreme Court remains high and look for the Court to attempt to provide clarity on one of the hottest issues in election matters.
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RNC Weathers Isaac; Another Wave of Primaries

8/29/2012

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  • Severe storms a catalyst for different convention model
  • AZ nominates Republican and Democratic candidates for Senate
  • Another incumbent falls due to redistricting
  • Primary results in AZ, OK, VT, and AK
  • A conventional number: 2,061
Nearly four years ago today the Republican National Convention was commencing in St. Paul, Minnesota, and Hurricane Gustav was barreling towards the coast of several Gulf States resulting in a delayed start of the convention. This cycle, the convention has again started one day behind schedule due to Hurricane Isaac. For a week now the national media has been unable to resist the use of severe weather puns: “Isaac swamps RNC”, “GOP’s unexpected storm”, “Candidates blow into Tampa for RNC”, etc., etc. Prior to 2008, conventions were held in July or August, well before hurricane season began, but both parties decided in 2008 to hold their conventions after the Olympics in order to maximize press coverage and jumpstart campaigns going into the fall. However, with Isaac making more headlines than Romney, Democrats reorganizing their convention schedule around the NFL Kickoff Game (Giants vs. Cowboys!), and increased social media coverage, the likelihood of holding one day conventions as opposed to four is becoming more realistic.
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Behind the Numbers

8/17/2012

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8

After the four congressional primaries on August 14, only eight states have yet to hold their primaries before the November General Election. Here are the remaining Primary Election dates and the remaining states:

  • August 21 – Wyoming
  • August 28 – Alaska, Arizona and Vermont
  • September 6 – Massachusetts
  • September 11 – Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island
Louisiana holds their Primary Election Day on November 6, which is the General Election Day in the 49 other states, with any Runoff Elections needed to be held on December 1.
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