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Less Than Two Weeks To Go and ANYTHING Could Happen

10/22/2014

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by Bo Harmon, Senior Vice President, Political Affairs

There are 10 U.S. Senate races that are toss-ups with the candidates within five points of each other and no candidate polling over 50%.
  • Approval ratings for both parties are at historic lows.
  • Confidence in Congress to solve even minor problems is at a historic low.
  • There has been more money spent on midterm elections than ever before.  By a lot.
  • Voter enthusiasm and engagement is significantly lower than 2006 or 2010 midterms.
  • That is a recipe for unpredictability.
There are two really remarkable things about this mid-term Senate election.  The first is the sheer number of highly competitive Senate races.  The second is just how close so many of them remain with less than two weeks before Election Day.

In recent weeks, polling has tightened in two races that had been considered likely to go Republican - South Dakota and Georgia.  Other races that had already been considered competitive are seeming even more so in the closing weeks.  

In a typical election cycle, there are four or five Senate races that are considered highly competitive.  This year, there are 10.  Two held by Republicans and eight held by Democrats.  Two additional Democratic held seats in Montana and West Virginia are likely to switch to Republican control.  If that happens, Republicans would need to net four additional seats to take control of the Senate.  

If Republicans lose either Georgia or Kansas, currently held by Republicans, it makes it very difficult for them to win a majority in the Senate.  The seats that have long been considered competitive, currently held by Democrats all remain so.  Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Dakota are states all carried by Mitt Romney in 2012 with Democratic incumbents and have been top Republican targets for over a year.  Other Democratic held seats that could go either way include Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire.  

Polling averages in ALL of these races have less than a five point difference between the top candidates and none have a candidate breaking 50%.  With less than two weeks to go, that is truly unprecedented.  

In a political environment where both parties' approval ratings and public confidence in the ability of Congress to solve even minor problems has dwindled to record low levels, there is such broad dissatisfaction with Washington and politics, it makes for a very volatile electorate.  Polling results are increasingly unreliable and even more so in an unpredictable, low turnout, mid-term election.  The result is less clarity about what may happen on Election Day than at any time in recent history.
We have seen some unexpected results already, most notably the surprise loss of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in his primary.  More such surprises are likely in store for November 4.

With voter enthusiasm at such low levels and so many races that could go either way, engaging and mobilizing your workforce is more important than ever and allows your voice to be magnified so much more in determining the result of these elections.  In the closing days of one of the wildest and most unpredictable elections cycles in a long time, your leadership in employee engagement is critical.
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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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BIPAC Action Fund - US House Endorsement Recaps  

7/16/2014

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By Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

Like last week when we reviewed endorsed candidates for US Senate, we urge BIPAC members to support Action Fund endorsed candidate for US House as well.  In each case, candidates met all of the following criteria:

  • Candidate has demonstrated a strong inclination towards working constructively with the business community to grow the economy, create jobs and support private sector growth.
  • The race is highly competitive and support of the business community could be decisive.
  • The candidate has had a personal meeting with a BIPAC Senior Staff person or Board member.
  • There is broad consensus amongst national business organizations, our state partner representing local businesses, BIPAC's Board of Directors and members with operations in the target state or district.
These are all pro-business candidates in races that need and deserve your support to ensure a pro-growth, pro-private sector oriented Congress.  If your PAC and senior leadership has not contributed in these races, we would strongly encourage you to do so.

US House of Representatives
(in alphabetical order)

Don Beyer (D-VA 8): Advanced to general election
Don Beyer won the Democratic nomination for the open seat in this safe Democratic district.   Beyer, former Lieutenant Governor and car dealership owner, faced several candidates in the primary.  He demonstrated a welcomed propensity to working with the business community to solve problems and grow the economy during his time as Lt. Governor.  www.friendsofdonbeyer.com

Mike Bost (R-IL 12): Advanced to general election
State Rep. Mike Bost is running to unseat freshman Rep. Bill Enyart (D).  This is a competitive race with the district being split pretty evenly between Democrat and Republican. Bost has a background in small business, having worked for Bost Trucking, owned by his father and uncle. He has a 79% (2011-2012) and 100% (2009-2008) rating from the Illinois Chamber of Commerce Legislative Ratings. www.bostforcongress.com

Bradley Byrne (R-AL 1): Won special election
Byrne won the special election to replace Rep. Jo Bonner (R) and is now the Congressman from the 1st district. Bradley Byrne (R) is a business attorney and former state legislator and was tasked as CEO of the state's two year college system with reforming the system and restructuring its financial underpinnings.  www.byrneforcongress.com

Buddy Carter (R-GA 1): Runoff election, July 22
State Senator Buddy Carter is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Jack Kingston (R).  Carter is in the runoff with Bob Johnson, a surgeon and Veteran.   Buddy, a pharmacist and businessman, has an A+ legislative rating from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce.  Bob Johnson is running as the tea party oriented candidate, and has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund and the Club for Growth.  Johnson, known to put his foot in his month, recently said "I'd rather see another terrorist attack, truly I would, than to give up my liberty as an American citizen," referring to TSA screenings.  Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement.  Carter was also endorsed by the US Chamber.  www.buddycarterforcongress.com

Mike Coffman (R-CO 6): Advanced to general election
Rep. Mike Coffman faces a competitive general election with Democratic nominee, former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.  This toss up race is a top Democratic target for 2014.  Coffman is a good business ally in the House and scored 95% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  During Romanoff's campaign for US Senate last election, he positioned himself distinctly to the left of current Democratic Senator Michael Bennett and actively opposed many key priorities of the Colorado business community.  This is one of the most competitive districts in the country and one of the clearest distinctions between a pro-jobs, pro-prosperity consensus building candidate in Coffman and a hard left avowed opponent of the business community.  www.coffmanforcongress.com

Mike Collins (R-GA 10): Runoff election, July 22
Mike Collins is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Paul Broun (R).  Mike Collins came in second place in the primary election and faces a runoff with Baptist Pastor and radio talk show host Jody Hice, who garnered 34% of the vote.  Hice, who has been endorsed by the Tea Party Leadership Fund PAC and Citizens United Political Victory Fund, has stated a number of positions opposed by local, state and national business organizations. Hice is also the founder and President of Ten Commandments - Georgia, Inc., which describes itself as a "grassroots organization committed to the task of locating, educating, and motivating citizens to acknowledge God through knowing, obeying, and displaying the Ten Commandments." Collins, a businessman, owns and runs a trucking company and has gained the support of the business community.   Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement. www.overhauldc.com

Barbara Comstock (R-VA 10): Advanced to general election
Delegate Barbara Comstock won GOP nomination in this competitive open seat. Comstock faced conservative firebrand, state Delegate Bob Marshall. Comstock has a 95% rating from the Virginia Chamber 2013 Legislative Scorecard and is gaining broad national and local GOP and business support for her nomination.  In the general, Comstock faces Democratic nominee Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust. The district has a slight Republican edge, and went to Romney by 1 point in 2012 and Obama by 3 points in 2008. Comstock is supported by the National Association of Manufacturers, the US Chamber of Commerce, and many BIPAC members. www.barbaracomstockforcongress.com

Carlos Curbelo (R-FL 26): Primary, August 26
Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo is challenging Rep. Joe Garcia (D) in this toss up race.  While the general election is expected to be highly competitive, Curbelo also has to make it through a GOP primary.  Curbelo is the frontrunner, and has been endorsed by Jeb Bush, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and most of the Miami area business community. www.carloscurbelo.com

Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL 13): Advanced to general election
Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis (R) won the GOP primary and is now in a competitive general election race. He won with less than 1% of the vote in the 2012 general election.  This is a swing district that went to President Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.  Currently serving on the Agriculture and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, Davis has been a consistent business ally.  Davis is also endorsed by the US Chamber and the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and other Illinois business entities encouraged the BIPAC Action Fund's endorsement. www.ElectRodney.com

Carl DeMaio (R-CA 52): Advanced to general election
Carl DeMaio (R), a former city councilman and mayoral candidate, is a formidable challenger to freshman Rep. Scott Peters (D).   The two made it out of California's top two primary and will be competing in November.   DeMaio is gaining the support of the California business community and this race is expected to be extremely competitive.  www.carldemaio.com

Bob Dold (R-IL 10): Advanced to general election
Former Rep. Bob Dold is challenging Rep. Brad Schneider (D).  This is a rematch from the 2012 race where Dold lost to Schneider by less than 3,500 votes. Rep. Dold scored 82% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record while Schneider has not been a friend during his time in Congress.  BIPAC's state partner, the Illinois Chamber of Commerce has also endorsed Dold.  www.doldforcongress.com

Brian Ellis (R-MI 3): Primary, August 5
Businessman Brian Ellis is challenging Tea Party Rep. Justin Amash in the Republican Primary. Amash has not been a friend to the business community, especially for his part in the Tea Party led government shutdown and efforts to default on federal debt. He also opposed a balanced budget amendment and the Keystone XL pipeline. Ellis has a business and financial services background and the backing of the Grand Rapids business community and the Michigan Chamber of Commerce. This race represents the business community taking an important symbolic stand in favor of pro-business candidates when they mount a primary challenge to non-business oriented candidates. www.ellis4congress.com

David Jolly (R-FL 13): Won special election
David Jolly won the competitive open seat to replace former Congressman Bill Young (R).  This swing district voted for a Republican congressman but went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012.  David Jolly (R) ran against former chief financial officer Alex Sink (D).  Jolly, a government affairs professional and former chief counsel to Young, was supported by the local business community and The Florida Chamber of Commerce, BIPAC's state partner, and several of our national association member. www.DavidJolly.com

Ted Lieu (D-CA 33): Advanced to general election
State Senator Ted Lieu is running in the open seat to replace retiring Rep. Waxman. This seat is heavily Democratic and Lieu's candidacy provides an opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business Democrat. Lieu has received the official endorsement of the Democratic Party and a number of business leaders in the district are supporting Lieu. www.tedlieu.com

Alex Mooney (R-WV 2): General election
Former Maryland State Senator Alex Mooney is running in the West Virginia 2nd Congressional District seat being vacated by Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).  The Democratic nominee is Nick Casey, former Chairman of the WV Democratic Party and a major trial attorney in the state.  Mooney has garnered the support of the business community in West Virginia based on his service in Maryland as well as the openly adversarial positions adopted by Casey.  Mooney has consolidated support from a wide array of Republican groups, including the NRCC Young Guns program and the Senate Conservatives Fund. www.mooneyforcongress.com

Doug Ose (R-CA 7): Advanced to general election
Former Congressman Doug Ose (R) is running in the 7th district, challenging Rep. Ami Bera (D). Ose previously served three terms in the House, first elected in 1998. This is one of the most highly competitive general election races in the country. Ose is supported by the California Prosperity Project and the California Business Roundtable as well as several BIPAC members in the district. www.dougose.com

Colin Peterson (D-MN 7): Primary, August 12
Rep. Colin Peterson is running for re-election in a tough race.  A member of the Blue Dog Coalition, he was first elected in 1990 and is currently the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee.  Peterson scored 86% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  www.petersonforcongress.com

Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID 2): Advanced to general election
Mike Simpson is the Republican incumbent running for re-election to his ninth term.  He has been a strong supporter of the business community throughout his tenure in the House.  Rep. Simpson has a perfect BIPAC voting record of 100% and sits on the House Appropriations Committee.  Simpson was challenged in the Republican primary by tea party candidate and attorney Bryan Smith (R), but easily defeated him.   Simpson is safe in the general.  www.simpsonforcongress.com

Eric Swalwell (D-CA 15): Advanced to general election
Freshman Rep. Eric Swalwell is running for re-election.  In 2012, Swalwell defeated incumbent Rep. Pete Stark (D) in the general election.  During his brief tenure in Congress, Swalwell has impressed the business community in California and nationally for his willingness to seek consensus solutions and actively bring all sides together for productive legislation.  Many BIPAC members with operations in the district are strongly supporting Swalwell's reelection.  www.swalwellforcongress.com

Richard Tisei (R-MA 6): Primary, September 9
Former State Senator Richard Tisei is challenging Rep. John Tierney (D) in a rematch of the 2012 race.  The 6th district is Democratic at the Presidential level but was carried by Republicans for Senate and Governor.  Tierney barely won in 2012 and remains vulnerable after past ethics troubles.  Tierney scored 4% on BIPAC's 112th Congress Voting record and is not a business friendly candidate. Tierney also faces a primary challenger, veteran Seth Moulton in a late primary which make this an even better opportunity to replace him with a business-oriented advocate.  www.tiseiforcongress.com

Andy Tobin (R-AZ 1): Primary, August 26
House Speaker Andy Tobin is looking to unseat Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D).  This is a tossup seat that Kirkpatrick lost in her 2010 reelection bid and won back in 2012.  Tobin is a small business owner who has the backing of the local business community, such as the Arizona Restaurant Association. Other Republican candidates include State Rep. Adam Kwasman, and rancher Gary Kiehne.  www.andytobin.com

Dave Trott (R-MI 11): Primary, August 5
Businessman Dave Trott is challenging Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in the Republican primary.  Bentivolio is a self-proclaimed tea party candidate who is not a friend of the business community.  He did note vote to reopen the government during the shutdown.  Trott has a business background and has created and saved 1,800 jobs in southeast Michigan. Trott has gained the backing of the business community, including the US Chamber of Commerce and our state partner, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce.  He has also recently gained the endorsement of Mitt Romney.  www.trottforcongress.com

David Valadao (R-CA 21): Advanced to general election
Rep. Valadao is a House freshman running for re-election. Valadao is a Republican sitting in a district that President Obama (D) won by 11 points in 2012. Amanda Renteria (D), former Chief of Staff for Senator Stabenow is challenging Valadao. The 21st district is known for its farming and agriculture, especially dairy, and Valadao has a solid background in dairy farming, as a managing partner of Valadao Dairy, which he started with his brothers. A friend to the business community, Valadao has previously been endorsed by BIPAC. The endorsement is supported by virtually all BIPAC members with California operations, as well as the Cal Chamber and California Prosperity Project. www.valadaoforcongress.com

Lee Zeldin (R-NY 1): Advanced to general election
State Senator Lee Zeldin is running in New York's 1st Congressional District against Rep. Tim Bishop (D).  In the primary, he faced and beat self-financing right wing candidate George Demos.  Zeldin has the support of the state and local business community based on his leadership in the State Legislature where he has chaired the committee that deals with most business issues.  In the general election, Zeldin faces Congressman Tim Bishop who scored 13% and 20% on BIPAC's 112th and 111th Voting Records, respectively, and is facing an FBI investigation into influence peddling.  Zeldin has a 90% rating from The Business Council of New York State 2012 Voters' Guide and is a member of the NRCC Young Guns program.  This is a competitive race, in an R+2 district.  Bishop won by 4% in 2012. www.zeldinforcongress.com
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BIPAC Action Fund Endorsements: AL, GA Runoffs & Senate Candidates

7/9/2014

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By Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

This week's EIS focuses on the BIPAC Action Fund endorsed candidates.  Four endorsed candidates in Alabama and Georgia are in crucial runoff elections taking place in July.  We are also recapping our list of endorsed Senate candidates to date.  In the following weeks we will focus on our endorsed candidates in the House.  BIPAC has actively worked with our members with operations in the states, with other business organizations and with the business community on the ground in the states, so the endorsed candidates are very much the consensus choice of businesses in the states.  We strongly encourage all of our members to make these candidates a priority. 

Upcoming runoffs: AL, GA

Alabama: July 15

In the 6th district, BIPAC endorsed candidate State Rep. Paul DeMarco is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Spencer Bachus (R).  DeMarco is in a runoff with Gary Palmer, Alabama Policy Institute co-founder.  Palmer has been endorsed by the Club for Growth.  DeMarco has an average rating of 95% from the Alabama NFIB, showing his commitment to the business community.  

Georgia: July 22

There are three runoffs that the business community should get involved in - the Senate race, 1st district and 10th district.  In the Senate, BIPAC endorsed candidate Rep. Jack Kingston (R) faces businessman Dave Perdue.  The winner of the runoff faces Michelle Nunn (D), in what is expected to be a competitive race.  In the 1st district, BIPAC endorsed candidate Buddy Carter (R) is running in Kingston's open seat, against Bob Johnson.  Carter, a businessman, has the support of the local business community and an A+ rating from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce while Johnson is running on tea party principles.  The 10th district has a similar dynamic, with the business community rallying around BIPAC endorsed candidate Mike Collins (R).  Collins has a small business background in the trucking industry and is running against Pastor Jody Hice, another tea party oriented candidate. 

BIPAC Senate Endorsements

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating:  Likely Republican


Rep. Shelley Moore Capito easily won the GOP nomination for the open Senate seat. Capito scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record.  She faces Democratic nominee Secretary of State Natalie Tennant in the general election.  Polling shows Capito with a double digit lead, making this seat a prime opportunity to move from adverse to business as it was when held by Rockefeller to pro-business as it would be with Capito.  www.capitoforsenate.com

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican


In one of the most competitive GOP primaries this cycle, Sen. Thad Cochran survived a runoff election with state Senator Chris McDaniel.   Senator Cochran scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and has a long history as a champion of free markets and working towards a pro-growth economic climate.  McDaniel was a Tea Party candidate backed by conservative groups such as Club for Growth.  Cochran now faces former Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the general election, but is expected to hold his seat. www.ThadForMississippi.com

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican


Senator Cornyn easily won his primary election back in March.  He faced several primary opponents, including Rep. Steve Stockman.  Cornyn has been a consistent business champion and is being uniformly supported by the business community in Texas and around the country.  Cornyn faces minimal opposition from David Alameel (D) in the general election. www.JohnCornyn.com

Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Leans Republican


Rep. Daines is running against Senator John Walsh (D) in a competitive general election.  Walsh was appointed to the seat in February, after Senator Baucus (D) resigned to become Ambassador to China.  Daines is a pro-business candidate who was been endorsed by BIPAC and the U.S. Chamber in 2012 when running for the at large Congressional seat and has proven to be a strong advocate for the business community during his time in the House.  Daines offers the best chance to make this seat reliably pro-business in its orientation.  www.stevedaines.com

Joni Ernst (R-IA): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


State Senator Joni Ernst earned the GOP nomination with 56% of the vote, avoiding a nominating convention.  She now faces Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in what is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Ernst has earned 100% on the Iowa Prosperity Project's 2011 State Senate voting record and 90% on the 2012 State Senate voting record.  She has consolidated support within Iowa's business community over the last month and has attracted support from across the ideological spectrum.  www.joniforiowa.com

Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


Rep. Cory Gardner is challenging incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D).   Gardner easily won the Republican nomination and has been a friend to the business community in the House.  There are few races featuring a greater contrast between the candidates in terms of their orientation towards supporting pro-growth economic policies.  Gardner scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record and is working closely with employers in Colorado to expand their operations and create a more comfortable operating environment.  Polling shows this race to be a toss-up at this point, so your engagement is important.  www.corygardnerforsenate.com

Terri Lynn Land (R-MI): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is running against Rep. Gary Peters (D) for the Michigan open Senate seat. While Michigan went to President Obama in 2008 and 2012, this race is considered a tossup. Polls have the two candidates within 2-5 points from one another. Land has shown impressive fundraising to date and her record as Secretary of State, personal interviews, and history managing a family real estate development company in Michigan has shown her to be a friend of business. She is strongly supported by many of Michigan's leading employers and is the very clear choice of the business community in Michigan. Rep. Peters scored only 8% on BIPAC's 112th Congress voting record. www.terrilynnland.com

Rep. James Lankford (R-OK): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Likely Republican


Rep. James Lankford won the Republican nomination for the open Senate special election to replace Sen. Coburn (R) and is now most likely going to be the next Senator from Oklahoma.  The Republican primary was the competitive race, with several candidates running, including state House Speaker T.W. Shannon.  Lankford scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Prosperity Project voting record. www.jameslankford.com

Thom Tillis (R-NC): Advanced to general election
BIPAC Rating: Toss Up


State House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) won the primary election with over 40% of the vote, avoiding a potentially damaging runoff.  Tillis is challenging Senator Kay Hagan (D) in the general.  Tillis was the preferred GOP nominee, due to his consistent record supporting economic growth and job creation in the state legislature. Hagan consistently scores less than 40% on leading business organization legislative scorecards.  This race is currently a toss-up, and a great opportunity for the business community to elect a pro-business candidate.  www.ThomTillis.com

Rep. Jack Kingston (R- GA): Runoff election, July 22
BIPAC Rating: Lean Republican


Rep. Jack Kingston in running in the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R).  Kingston is in a runoff with businessman Dave Perdue.  Kingston has a solid business record, scoring an 87% average on BIPAC's Prosperity Project voting records, 85% on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's cumulative voting record and 86% on NAM's 112th Congress voting record.  Whoever advances out of the runoff faces a credible Democratic opponent in Michelle Nunn (D).  This could shape up to be a very competitive race in the general. www.jackkingston.org
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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Social Media and the 2014 Midterm Elections

7/2/2014

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By Jason Langsner, Director, New Media and Communications

Pew Research's Internet and American Life Project's most recent "Social Media Update" tells us that 73% of online adults are now using social media and Facebook is the dominant network.  We've all heard the data on Facebook usage:  802 million daily active users globally and 1.28 billion users logging in at least once a month.  

That is a lot of people. 

BIPAC is running an ad campaign on Facebook to influence American potential voters with our pro-prosperity message.  Our ad targets approximately 175 million Americans who are 18+ on Facebook. 

That is a lot of potential voters.

You can't say something about Facebook and an organization's social strategy these days, without quickly following it up with Twitter.  500 million tweets are sent each and every day, on average, by Twitter's 255 million users who log in at least once a month.  That is 5,787 tweets a second.  Not all of them are about kittens and pop music.  Politics is one of the trending topics across Twitter.

23% of Twitter users are American, which is about 58.7 million people (or about 1/3 of the reach of Facebook).  Still a lot of people.  Especially if you consider that in the last midterm elections, in 2010, 90.7 million ballots were counted across the United States.  So a candidate or political organization can reach a large percentage of potential voters by pushing content across social media, listening to potential voters, being responsive to constituents and potential voters online, presenting geo-targeted and personalized ads, and creating their own narrative by being self-publishers.  It is more than a 21st century direct mail program because it is a two-way form of communication.
Similar to what BIPAC is doing on Facebook, we are also presenting ads on Twitter with a goal to influence potential 18+ voters.  But an ad strategy is far from a social strategy.  A true social strategy is based on content, listening to your audience, a sharing strategy, and participating in broader topical conversations.  The root is "social" for a reason...

I use our online political advocacy work purely to set the stage for what we are seeing with a lot of creative digital campaign work by the BIPAC Action Fund's endorsed candidates.  And in this blog post, I wanted to share with you some data from what we've seen in the primaries and what we expect in the general.

Of all online adults, the following approximate demographics are on Facebook and Twitter (according to the aforementioned Pew study's sample size):
Picture
Therefore, a campaign's social strategy isn't just put in place to reach out to young voters.  

The power of social media and real-time reporting additionally provides organizations like ours and yours with intelligence that wasn't easily attainable 10 years ago about how candidates are reaching these voting blocks.  

Comparing how many followers Candidate A has compared to Candidate B doesn't really tell us much.  But comparing and contrasting how "influential" Campaign A is compared to Campaign B is across all of social media tells us a great deal of information about how they are connecting with potential voters.

Case-in-point, Eric Cantor's campaign primary channels on social media (e.g. Facebook and Twitter) had 404,901 followers as of this past weekend.  Dave Brat's had 22,744.  Brat won the primary with 36,110 votes as compared to Eric Cantor's 28,898 votes.  The gap of 404.9k to 22.7k shrinks considerably after the vote if you ask yourself how many of the 400k-plus live in Virginia's 7th district (NOTE - the district has a total population of 758k) v how many live elsewhere.  It is the difference between data and intelligence.  What I find more telling is how influential those channels are across social media.  That provides a better litmus test of how well they are being received in their district/state as-well-as across the broader political spectrum.  Cantor's campaign channels scored a 73/100 on Klout while Brat's scored a 70/100.  Both strong numbers.  And pretty much identical.  This is telling.  The campaigns online influence was essentially equal as of our pulling of the data on Klout.com.  And we all know who outspent who and by how much.  Again, an ad strategy is not a content strategy.  Content and the message is king - and as BIPAC preaches, the messenger and the trust that they have with the potential audience is critically important.

A second piece of intelligence we can glean from social media is looking at the sentiment of the conversation revolving around a candidate online.  Let's look at the Mississippi Senate Runoff - for instance.  Thad Cochran won the runoff.  And a lot is being said about it in media.  Unfortunately, not a lot is being said about our industry's efforts to Get Out the Vote.  It wasn't just Democrats voting in a Republican primary...  But I'll leave that kind of analysis up to BIPAC's Political Affairs department.  What, I will add to the storyline is that for every one negative thing said about the BIPAC endorsed Thad Cochran on social media over the last 30 days, there have been 28 positive or neutral things said about the senior Mississippi Senator (according to SocialMention.com data).  Like the VA-07 example, McDaniel had about 14k more followers on social media than Cochran but they were pretty much equally influential across social media.  And this 28:1 favorability of all dialogue on social media tells us a great deal.  Any brand would want that.  The sentiment around the "Chris McDaniel" brand was 13:1 favorable.

I've prepared some data on each of the BIPAC U.S. Senate endorsed candidates below.  It looks at their following and how influential they are on social media.  It also compares that against their primary challenger (if one existed or if it was a crowded field, I choose the individual who received the second most votes) and their general opponent.  Lastly it looks at how many votes they received in the primary.
Social Media and the Midterm Elections
Social Media and the Midterm Elections
Social Media and the Midterm Elections
If you have any questions about this analysis or if you would like BIPAC to do a similar analysis on another race, please contact langsner@bipac.org.
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Business and the Tea Party Insurgency

6/18/2014

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It is understood the GOP will maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which does not speak to "who" will control the House GOP. The exodus of so many senior Democrats is telling. Regarding governors, although the GOP will lose ground, the big gains Democrats hoped to achieve in state houses isn't going to materialize. All eyes are then focused on whether the GOP will regain the U.S. Senate.
 
Washington wisdom suggests outright control of the Senate is the GOP's to lose. The environment seems consistent with that. The public leans towards GOP control of Congress. The President's approval is under water by double digits in key states and some core issues are going south for their party. Historically, the party of the White House doesn't do well in the off year election during a President's second term and given their base historically doesn't show up well in off year elections anyway, therefore Democrats face a potentially toxic political environment in November.
 
The math and the cadre of quality GOP candidates also seems to suggest a GOP advantage. The GOP needs six seats to regain the majority outright. Three of those seem certain, assuming the GOP candidates in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia keep their eye on the ball. That leaves a target rich environment of another eleven or so potentially competitive Senate races from which the GOP needs to win three, assuming they hold Georgia and Kentucky. In six of those eleven states, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina, the GOP candidate leads in three and the other three are legitimate jump balls. Let's not slice this to fine at this point. They are all close. There are five other races in Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia that lean Democratic but with numbers to iffy to provide much comfort. A little push from a legitimate wave and the close seats and anyone of these leaners could move in the GOP direction.

Still, the GOP has recently squandered similar opportunities. This time, however, it may be less about bad candidates than outdated campaigns. The recent upset of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia teaches us three obvious lessons; keeping your eye on the ball back home matters, money alone is no cure for taking your eye off the ball and the electorate everywhere is pretty angry at Washington arrogance. Maybe not so obvious, however, was the oft stated disdain for Leader Cantor's cozy relationship with "corporate influence."   While anti-big business, "crony capitalism" has been part of the Tea Party line for some time, it was full-throated the day after this unknown and underfunded candidate upset the Majority Leader even after being outspent 5 to 1.
 
As I was preparing my thoughts for this newsletter, Red State published an article entitled "Big Business is afraid of conservatives - and they should be." Although I don't buy the full narrative, it does speak to a growing belief among many that "corporate" America is as much a part of the problem as "big government" and hints that big, overt corporate support of candidates may not always be as helpful as it once was.
 
This carries a significant warning, less related to the rhetoric of the extreme right than it to the tactics used to defend against their insurgency. Congressman Ralph Hall (R-TX) had the support of the business "establishment" and lost in a run off.  Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) had the support of the establishment too and came in a close second in his primary and is forced to a runoff. Conversely, Tea Party targets Congressman Mike Simpson (R-ID) and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) made the ground game and personal voter contact mainstays of their campaigns and won handily. While it is obvious there was a significant difference in the capability of these candidates, it does suggest there is no substitute for real grassroots in this environment, even by, or especially by, business. Maybe we should keep our eye on the same ball.
 
Brad Dayspring, a former Cantor aide and NRSC Communications Director said last week, "one of the extremely valuable, must follow lessons is you have to adapt and run a modern campaign. Doing things the same old way in the current environment and with the current electorate isn't going to cut it anymore." Good advice for the GOP and for the business community.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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BIPAC Candidate Endorsement Alert

6/13/2014

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BIPAC has issued its next round of candidate endorsements in the U.S. Senate and House.  These candidates have been chosen after extensive consultation with our state partners, BIPAC members, state, and local employers and business organizations with operations and employees in these states and districts.  Along with being the board consensus choice of the business community, these races are very competitive and/or highly significant for the business community.

We strongly encourage you to join BIPAC and the local business community in each of these races to support the following candidates as the clear favorite to provide a pro-growth, pro-prosperity and jobs-oriented economic climate.
 
If you have affiliates or employees in these states or districts and would like to join BIPAC's business-driven employee education and GOTV efforts here, please contact Bo Harmon.

U.S. Senate

Jack Kingston (R- Georgia)
Runoff: July 22

Rep. Jack Kingston in running in the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R).  Kingston is in a runoff with businessman Dave Perdue.  Kingston has a solid business record, scoring an 87% average on BIPAC's Prosperity Project voting records, 85% on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's cumulative voting record and 86% on NAM's 112th Congress voting record.  He is amassing a large base of support, including the Georgia Chamber of Commerce and his former primary opponents, former Secretary of State Karen Handel and Rep. Phil Gingrey. Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement.   http://www.jackkingston.org/

James Lankford (R- Oklahoma)
Primary: June 24

Rep. James Lankford is running in the open Senate special election to replace Sen. Coburn (R).  He faces a primary with several candidates principally, state House Speaker T.W. Shannon.  Lankford scored 100% on BIPAC's 112th Prosperity Project voting record.  Lankford also has the support of several leaders of the local business community, including Larry Nichols, Chairman of Devon Energy, Tom Buchanan, President of the Oklahoma Farm Bureau, and Doug Cummings, President of Cummings Oil, because of his demonstrated commitment to functional government and support of a long term, stable economic climate. Shannon has been endorsed by Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin and a handful of national tea-party organizations. http://jameslankford.com/

U.S. House

Buddy Carter (R- Georgia 1)
Runoff: July 22

State Senator Buddy Carter is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Jack Kingston (R).  Carter is in the runoff with Bob Johnson, a surgeon and Veteran.   Buddy, a pharmacist and businessman, has an A+ legislative rating from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce.  Bob Johnson is running as the tea party oriented candidate, and has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund and the Club for Growth.  Johnson, known to put his foot in his month, recently said "I'd rather see another terrorist attack, truly I would, than to give up my liberty as an American citizen," referring to TSA screenings.  Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement. http://www.buddycarterforcongress.com/

Mike Collins (R- Georgia 10)
Runoff: July 22

Mike Collins is running in the open seat vacated by Rep. Paul Broun (R).  Mike Collins came in second place in the primary election and faces a runoff with Baptist Pastor and radio talk show host Jody Hice, who garnered 34% of the vote.  Hice, who has been endorsed by the Tea Party Leadership Fund PAC and Citizens United Political Victory Fund, has stated a number of positions opposed by local, state and national business organizations. Hice is also the founder and President of Ten Commandments - Georgia, Inc., which describes itself as a "grassroots organization committed to the task of locating, educating, and motivating citizens to acknowledge God through knowing, obeying, and displaying the Ten Commandments." Collins, a businessman, owns and runs a trucking industry and has gained the support of the business community.   Our Georgia state partner, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers strongly supports our endorsement. https://www.overhauldc.com/

Alex Mooney (R- West Virginia 2)
General: November 4

Former Maryland State Senator Alex Mooney is running in the West Virginia 2nd Congressional District seat being vacated by Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).  The Democratic nominee is Nick Casey, former Chairman of the WV Democratic Party and a major trial attorney in the state.  Mooney has garnered the support of the business community in West Virginia based on his service in Maryland as well as the openly adversarial positions adopted by Casey.  Mooney has consolidated support from a wide array of Republican groups, including the NRCC Young Guns program and the Senate Conservatives Fund. http://mooneyforcongress.com/

Lee Zeldin (R- New York 1)
Primary Election: June 24

State Senator Lee Zeldin is running in New York's 1st Congressional District against Rep. Tim Bishop (D).  In the primary, he faces self-financing right wing candidate George Demos.  Zeldin has the support of the state and local business community based on his leadership in the State Legislature where he has chaired the committee that deals with most business issues.  In the general election, Zeldin would face Congressman Tim Bishop who scored 13% and 20% on BIPAC's 112th and 111th Voting Records, respectively, and is facing an FBI investigation into influence peddling.  Zeldin has a 90% rating from The Business Council of New York State 2012 Voters' Guide and is a member of the NRCC Young Guns program.  This is a competitive race, in an R+2 district.  Bishop won by 4% in 2012. http://www.zeldinforcongress.com/home

NOTE: BIPAC will continue to endorse candidates as consensus emerges in primary and general elections amongst its members and the local business community in favor of particular candidates.

Paid for by the Business-Industry Political Action Committee Action Fund.
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.
888 16th St NW, Suite 305 | Washington, DC 20006 | bipac.net/action
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