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Primary Recap: TN, HI, CT, MN & WI 

8/13/2014

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by Briana Huxley, Director, Political Affairs

Tennessee

Senate:

Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) beat back a challenge from Tea Party candidate state Rep. Joe Carr last Thursday, 50% to 41%.  There were several other Republicans in the race as well, though none garnered more than 5% of the vote each.   Tennessee was the last chance for Tea Party groups to take out an incumbent Senator this cycle, after failing to take down McConnell in Kentucky, Cochran in Mississippi, Graham in South Carolina and Roberts in Kansas.  While Carr was a more credible and less controversial candidate than others, such as Milton Wolf, Alexander took his primary challenges seriously and starting rally his base early in the campaign, leaving little money or support left for Carr. While the Tea Party has had some success in 2014, it is clear that taking on incumbents is still an uphill battle.  Senator Alexander is safe in the general.

House:

TN-03:  Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R) narrowly beat his primary challenger, Weston Wamp, 51% to 49%.  Wamp positioned himself as a moderate candidate, trying to win the seat that his dad, Zach Wamp, once held.  This primary was not the traditional tea-party/establishment race we have seen this cycle, but it was very close and another example of how hard it is to beat an incumbent, even with a good candidate in a district that isn't ideal for the incumbent.  Fleishman has never won a majority in the primary but this was the first time there weren't multiple candidates to split the remaining vote.

TN-04:  One Tea Party oriented candidate could find success in Tennessee, Rep. Scott DesJarlais.  DesJarlais faced an extremely competitive challenge from state Sen. Jim Tracy, who had the backing of the Tennessee business community, Republican establishment and outraised and outspent DesJarlais.  Much of DesJarlais' trouble came from the scandals that plagued him in 2012, however, two years is a long time for voters.  Many appeared to have forgiven DesJarlais for his digressions, and were more focused on his conservative policies in the House and his recent disclosure that he has cancer, both helping his re-election bid.  DesJarlais is currently ahead by 35 votes, but the race is still under consideration and has not been finalized by the Secretary of State. Some absentee and provisional ballots may remain and Tracy can call for a recount.

Hawaii

Senate:

The most competitive Democratic Senate primary to take place this cycle is still too close to call.  After Saturday's election, Sen. Brian Schatz currently leads Rep. Colleen Hanabusa by 1,635 votes.   The special election is for the final two years of the late Sen. Daniel Inouye (D), who passed away in December, 2012.  Inouye had requested that Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) appoint Rep. Hanabusa to serve the remainder of his term after he passed, but Abercrombie instead named his lieutenant governor, Brian Schatz, setting up the beginnings of the primary challenge.  While the Republicans' intraparty fight is playing out in Senate races across the country, the Hawaii race is a microcosm of what is going on within the Democratic Party.  It pits Schatz, a young, very liberal Democratic against Hanabusa, a more moderate liberal and senior candidate.  Schatz has gained the support of the Democratic establishment, liberal groups and Presidents Obama while Hanabusa has gained the endorsement of Emily's List.   Two precincts have not held their elections yet due to Tropical Storm Iselle, and will hold their elections on Friday.  Those results could have an impact on the primary.  The eventual winner of the primary faces businessman and former state Rep. Cam Cavasso (R), but the seat is likely to stay in Democratic hands.

House:


HI-01: State Rep. Mark Takai easily won the crowded Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Hanabusa, with 45% of the vote.  Former Rep. Charles Djou won the Republican nomination.  The district leans Democratic but with a competitive Governor's race and a talented candidate on the GOP side in Djou who has held the seat before, this race could be competitive.

Connecticut

There were no competitive primaries in Connecticut.

Minnesota


Senate:

Businessman Mike McFadden (R) won the GOP primary to take on Sen. Al Franken (D), with 72% of the vote.  McFadden was the GOP endorsed candidate going into the primary and was favored to win.  Franken, who won in 2008 by only 312 votes, was expected to be one of the Republicans' top targets in 2014.  Franken however, has done a good job of winning over his critics and is currently favored to win re-election though Obama has surprisingly low approval ratings in the state and McFadden has the ability to spend substantially on the race through personal funds and has demonstrated a strong ability to raise money.  Franken has already spent almost $15 million, more than any other candidate to date, and remains under 50% in polling, a dangerous place for incumbents.  Republicans believe Minnesota is the state most likely among the "second tier" states of VA, NH, OR and NM to jump to the highly competitive category as we approach November.

House:

MN-06: Former State Rep. Tom Emmer (R) won the Republican primary with 72% of the vote to succeed retiring Rep. Michele Bachmann (R).  Emmer already won the GOP party's endorsement at the August convention and was expected to win the primary over Anoka County Commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah.  Emmer was able to bring together a wide base of support, from the Freedom Club to the U.S. Chamber.  He faces Sartell mayor Joe Perske, but this is a very Republican seat and Emmer should be safe.

MN-08: The key players in this competitive race have been set for a while, with Rep. Rick Nolan (D) being challenged by Mills Fleet Farm Vice President Stewart Mills, III (R).  This northern, rural, iron range district has been getting more and more competitive over the years, and Mills has proved himself a credible candidate.  He has working class appeal and his family's farm supply stores are a staple of small towns across the district.  Mills, a 42 year old with shoulder length hair has a unique appeal and polling shows this is a tight race.

MN-07: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) is being challenged by state Sen. Torrey Westrom (R), in what is expected to be a competitive race.   Peterson, one of the last few Blue Dogs in the House, has been endorsed by the BIPAC Action Fund, several of our Minnesota based business members and NFIB.  Peterson is one of the few remaining farmers in Congress and is ranking member on the Agriculture committee having demonstrated a strong tendency to work across the aisle to find consensus on issues.  With Peterson and Westrom being on the same side of many policy issues, Westrom's campaign is focusing on the need for change, and linking Peterson to the Obama administration.  Right now, Peterson has a small advantage, but this is race to pay attention to.

Wisconsin

House:

WI-06:  State Sen. Glenn Grothman won the GOP nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Tom Petri (R).  Grothman received 39% of the vote, while state Sen. Joe Leibham got 29% and state Rep. Duey Stroebel received 29%.  Grothman was running to the right of the GOP candidates in the group, while Stroebel labeled himself as an outsider and was able to self-fund.  Leibham had a lot of the business community support, including ABC- Wisconsin and the Dairy Business Association.  The Democratic nominee is Winnebago county executive Mark Harris, though Grothman has the advantage in this Republican district.
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2014 Midterm Elections

7/30/2014

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by Greg Casey, president and chief executive officer of BIPAC

Strange things can happen in the 90 days before an election.

The plethora of Washington political pundits have done their best to provide us with an endless stream of assessments of the 2014 elections.  By looking at respective war chests of the party
campaign committees and some of the competitive campaigns, they give the financial advantage to the Democrats and their fundraiser-in-chief.  The same pundits, aware of the second term woes of an incumbent President, analyzed the polling data and constructed a fall narrative which leans Republican.  

Emerging from all this is the common understanding the GOP will hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and add a few seats to their margin.  The GOP will gain anywhere from four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate.  Thus, the big question remains unanswered and as of now, is unanswerable.  

The average voter doesn't focus a lot on the fall elections until after summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school.  That makes pre-labor day polling a trailing edge indicator rather than a reliable predictor.  However, the upcoming Congressional August recess signals the beginning of the real fall campaigns.  

Incumbents come face to face with constituents and insurgent candidates come face to face with incumbents.  It is a revealing test for both.  It is a time when the reality of "out there" sets in and begins to replace the party dogma in shaping fall campaigns.  This is the period of time which has given rise to many transformational election dynamics:  the Contract with America, the Tea Party and the ripples of eventual wave elections.  So what should we be looking for in the next few weeks?  

At some point in the next 60 days, public opinion solidifies on the big issues. Already, two thirds of the voters think the country is on the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the President's handling of just about every current issue, let alone the chronic drag of Obamacare.  Thus, over the next two months, Democrats are going to discover the President's 42% Real Clear Politics national approval rating is inflated.  In perpetual swing states like Iowa, which is attuned to politics as few others, his approval is already at 40% and falling and it is unlikely to get any better.  Democrats will increasingly be swimming against the tide of an unpopular President and an unlikable Senate Majority Leader.  This is going to change the campaign dynamics.  Watch for desperate candidates with troubling internal polling to begin turning toward more provocative positions.   

Although republicans still have a brand problem, Democrats have an increasing base turnout problem.  Currently 38% of voters have a "favorable" impression of Democrats compared to only 29% who feel favorable towards Republicans.  Neither number is particular good.  However, 76% of republican voters say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in November compared to only 67% of the democrats.  

Although unemployment numbers suggest an economic revival, the GDP shrank nearly 3% in the first quarter and the average household wage is about where it was a decade ago.  For the average voter, the economic revival isn't real and national statistics are unlikely to convince them otherwise.  That is why democrats have turned their monetary advantage toward motivating their base by pushing social issues that may not play well in some of the more competitive Senate races: read war on women and gay marriage playing in Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Their push of the impeachment rumor to motivate their base is unlikely to get much traction unless some clueless republican gives it credence, ala Akin and the war on women, 2012.

Moving down the home stretch, the bigger challenge for Senate candidates may have less to do with all this partisan politics than finding ways to appeal to state electorates looking for honest, genuine, level headed leadership.  GOP candidates have to prove to a skeptical public they are ready to govern wisely by showing less intolerance and more positive vision.  Democrats have to prove they aren't going to provide more of the same by blindly following the President and his agenda.  

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, GOP candidate Joni Ernst will win because she is genuine Iowa.  Congressman Bruce Braley played politics with his comments about Senator Chuck Grassley.  Senator Mitch McConnell made his election more difficult by telling a job hungry electorate "economic development isn't my job."  If Senator Mark Udall loses in Colorado, it will be because Cory Gardner stayed on a positive economic message while Senator Udall pandered to the social issues of the left.  In deep blue Oregon, Dr. Monica Wheby may sneak up on Senator Jeff Merkley because she has a compelling story and his is more about politics. So on it goes.  

From a realistic standpoint, the barn door is closed on Democrat hopes of retaking the U.S. House.  In the race for control of the US Senate, the GOP has three pickups in the barn with eight tossups in the corral, six of which are Democrat held.  There are another three possible surprises, none of which would accrue to the benefit of Democrats.  All of these latter races will be candidate dependent and in each, signs will soon emerge as to which way they are headed.  We will keep you posted.
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AP:  "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years..."

7/8/2014

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Another strong sign that private sector job creators are showing increased confidence in our recovering economy...
U.S. employers advertised more jobs in May than in any month in the past seven years, a sign that this year's strong hiring trend is likely to continue.

More Americans also quit their jobs, a good sign because it usually occurs when workers find new and higher-paying jobs. It also opens up more positions for those out of work.

Employers posted 4.64 million jobs, a 3.8 percent increase from April's total of 4.46 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Learn more in today's Associated Press story, "U.S. employers post most jobs in 7 years in May; more Americans also quit in sign of confidence."
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U.S. Adds 288k Jobs and Unemployment Drops to 6.1%

7/3/2014

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The June jobs report from the BLS is out.  Following a positive ADP report, we see an increase of 288,000 non-farm private sector jobs added to the economy.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that:
May's gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000, while April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000. That was the strongest gain since January 2012.
The revised reports from May and April, plus June's official U.S. Department of Labor stats continue to show promise that we are rebounding.  As I write this blog post, CNN also reported that the Dow surpassed the psychological 17,000 today. 

Although job gains are still mostly coming from the traditional low-paying sectors:  retail (+40k) and leisure and hospitality (+39k), economists and analysts continue to show increased confidence due to the skilled laborer increases - such as manufacturing (+16k) and construction (+6k).

To learn more, read WSJ's story from today by Jonathan House and Ben Leubsdorf.
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USA Today - "Job openings soar to highest since 2007"

6/17/2014

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Good news from the U.S. Department of Labor, via today's USA Today story, "Job Openings Soar to Highest Since 2007" by Doug Carroll:
Tuesday's report comes from Labor's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which is closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve policymakers for its insights into labor market trends.

The report shows openings grew in every region of the country in April. The sharpest improvement was in the Midwest, where openings increased 13% from March and topped a seasonally adjusted 1 million for the first time since August 2001.

The South led in total openings, as it always does, with 1.6 million seasonally adjusted. In the West, openings were about 1 million and in the Northeast, 771,000.
To learn more about this report, please visit http://www.bls.gov/jlt/.
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The Fight for (Exports and) Jobs

6/12/2014

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Exports supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2013.  This is an increase of 1.6 million since 2009. Learn about the fight for jobs, supported by exports, from the CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox and CNH Industrial’s Joseph Samora.
The CNH Industrial Digital Trade Toolbox includes a tool so you can make your voice heard in the fight for jobs that are supported by exports.  Visit www.cnhindustrialtrade.com and click on the “Write to your Congressperson” link to help support the re-authorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) before its authorization expires on September 30.  In 2013, Ex-Im helped to finance $37 billion in U.S. export sales, supporting approximately 205,00-0 export-related American jobs.
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Forbes - "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%"

6/6/2014

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The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Jobs report this morning, saying:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing.
To learn more, read the Forbes ongoing story, "Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added 217K Jobs In May, Unemployment Remains Unchanged At 6.3%" by Maggie McGrath.
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Stakes in the States: Recall Elections

8/12/2013

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What is a recall election? It is a procedure that allows citizens to remove and replace an elected official before the end of their term. Recalls can be used to rid the office of a corrupt or incompetent leader, for partisan politics, or removing officials for a policy position. It is estimated that a majority, three-fourths, of recall elections are at city council or school board level, though there have been increasing instances of recalls at the state level. Nineteen states (AK, AZ, CA, CO, GA, ID, IL, KS, LA, MI, MN, MT, NV, NJ, ND, OR, RI, WA and WI) and the District of Columbia currently allow recalls of state officials. In the past three years, several states have seen state elected officials face recalls, including WI, AZ, MI and currently, CO.

State Level Recalls since 2010 (according to National Conference of State Legislatures)

  • 2011 Wisconsin: Nine state senators faced recall elections regarding the budget bill proposed by Governor Walker (R). Sens. Robert Cowles (R), Alberta Darling (R), Dave Hansen (D), Sheila Harsdorf (R), Jim Holperin (D), Luther Olsen (R) and Robert Wirch (D) survived recall attempts. Senators Randy Hopper (R) and Dan Kapanke (R) were recalled.
  • 2011 Arizona: Senate President Russell Pearce (R) was recalled over his sponsorship of AZ’s immigration law.
  • 2011 Michigan: State Representative Paul Scott (R) was recalled for supporting Gov. Snyder’s budget and angering teachers unions.
  • 2012 Wisconsin: Gov. Walker and four state senators faced recalls over collective bargaining issues. Gov. Scott Walker, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) and Senator Terry Moulton (R) survived recall attempts. Senator Van Wanggaard (R) was recalled. Senator Pam Galloway (R) resigned before her recall election, a recall was still held for her seat.
  • 2013 Colorado: State Senate President John Morse (D) and Senator Angela Giron (D) face recall elections on September 10 for their support of gun control legislation.
In the first ever recall elections of state lawmakers in Colorado, two Democratic senators in Colorado are facing recalls due to their vote on stricter gun control measures, State Senate President John Morse of El Paso County and Senator Angela Giron of Pueblo County. After the Secretary of State deemed there were enough signatures for a recall, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) set the recall election date for September 10, 2013.

The gun control bills causing such uproar in CO, passed in the 2013 legislative session by the Democratically-controlled CO state legislature, were the first such bills passed in over ten years. This is a hot topic issue in a state that is well known for the Columbine High School and Aurora shootings, but is also known for its bipartisan passion of hunting and sport shooting.

A group behind the recall, the Basic Freedom Defense Fund (501 (c)(4) non-profit), was set up in February in response to the passed gun legislation. The founding members say the main issue is about legislators not listening to their constituents. Originally, four Democrats were targeted to be recalled, including Sen. Evie Hudak (D) of Westminster and Rep. Mike McLachlan (D) of Durango but only the recall attempts for Sens. Morse and Giron gained enough signatures. Former Colorado Springs City Councilman Bernie Herpin (R) is challenging Morse and former police officer Georgia Rivera (R) of Pueblo is challenging Giron.

Money has been pouring into the elections, with Giron and Morse raising nearly a quarter million dollars, and receiving thousands of dollars from Colorado liberal groups. Recall supporters have been sending their funds to the Basic Freedom Defense, and the NRA has helped with mailers and phone banks. According to El Paso and Pueblo county clerks, the elections will cost somewhere between $150,000 and $200,000.

Even if the recall attempts are successful, Democrats will still hold the majority in the Senate, 18-17. However, supporters of the recall still hope this will send messages to legislators in CO and across the country.

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Bringing Back the Filibuster

3/7/2013

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The talking filibuster made its return to the front pages as Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) took to the Senate floor yesterday to block a vote on President Obama’s nomination of John Brennan to head the CIA.  It was a rare show of bipartisanship as Paul received support from fellow Republicans and a Democrat as he sought to bring attention to the use of unmanned drones and to find out if the government would use drones in the United States.  Just before noon on Wednesday, Paul began his filibuster saying, “I will speak until I can no longer speak.”  As it turns out, that was quite a while, finally ceding the floor at about 12:40 a.m. on Thursday.  All told, Paul spoke without leaving the floor of the Senate for almost 13 hours.

Of late, Senators tend to favor the threat of filibuster or use of Senate rules to block legislation rather than an epic talking filibuster like Paul’s.  The last lengthy filibuster was in 2010, when Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) spoke for more than 8 hours to oppose a tax-cut plan proposed by President Obama.  Today, to end a filibuster, a device known as cloture, requires 60 votes, but by talking and only yielding the floor for questions, Paul was able to keep going.

Speaking for almost 13 hours should be a record, shouldn’t it?  Although the talking filibuster has rarely been used in recent years, it has a long, storied past.  The longest filibuster on record belongs to Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina, clocking in at 24 hours, 18 minutes.  Thurmond sought to block civil rights legislation in 1957.  In addition to Thurmond, Senators Alfonse D’Amato (D-NY) and Wayne Morse (I-OR) both exceeded the 22 hour mark.  Senators Robert M. La Follette, Sr. (R-WI) and William Proxmire (D-WI) filibustered for more than 18 hours and 16 hours, respectively.  While he didn’t set any records, Senator Paul garnered national attention and managed to bring attention to the use of drones, even though it is unlikely this filibuster will keep Brennan from being confirmed.
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Breaking It Down: Senate Seniority

2/8/2013

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Seniority in the U.S. Senate has always been viewed as beneficial.  More senior members usually have increased clout in the chamber and higher positions in committees.  However, in a year where almost half of the senators have been serving less than six years, lack of seniority and experience can also be a good thing.  This is a great time to reach out to the newer members and introduce yourself and your issues.

There are currently 45 senators (this includes Senator Kerry’s successor) that have served less than six years and 39 of these senators are still serving in their first term.  In eleven states – CO, CT, HI, IN, MA, ND, NE, NH, NM, VA and WI – both senators have served less than six years.

Since the 2012 elections, changes in the Hawaii and Massachusetts delegations have drastically altered seniority in both states and the Senate.  When Senator Inouye passed away, the Senate lost its most senior member and Hawaii lost its seniority as a state in the Chamber.  Both Sens. Schatz and Hirono have served less than 2 months, a major change from the long careers of Sens. Inouye and Akaka.  Schatz is considered Hawaii’s senior member, since he was sworn in on December 27, 2012 and Hirono was sworn in on January 3, 1013.

Now that Kerry has submitted his resignation to become Secretary of State, Massachusetts lost the seniority it held for decades.  Kerry was the seventh most senior senator and Ted Kennedy, before he passed away, was the second most senior member.  Once Kerry’s seat is filled, both Senators from Massachusetts will have been in office for less than a year (This will still hold true if Scott Brown is elected to take Kerry’s seat.  He lost his seniority when he left office in January 2013 after losing to Elizabeth Warren).

Two states that still hold considerable seniority in the Senate are Iowa and California.  For Iowa, Senator Grassley is the sixth most senior senator, followed by Senator Harkin who is seventh.  Iowa’s position will change following the 2014 election now that Harkin has announced his retirement.  California holds the fourteenth and fifteenth most senior spots, with Sens. Feinstein and Boxer.   Senator Leahy from Vermont is the Senate’s most senior member, and President pro tempore.
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