Conventional wisdom, polling and pundits for weeks and even months pegged a Jon Bruning (R) versus Bob Kerrey (D) contest to replace Ben Nelson (D) in the U.S. Senate. Someone forgot to tell state senator Deb Fischer (R). At the end of January, Fischer polled fourth out of four candidates and trailed Bruning, the Nebraska Attorney General, by 41 points (47% to 6%). Last night, Fischer won 78 of 93 counties and performed exceptionally well in smaller counties, typically winning 45% to 55%.
Here are the Nebraska GOP Primary results for U.S. Senate with 100% reporting:
Here are the Nebraska GOP Primary results for U.S. Senate with 100% reporting:
Fisher has served two terms in the Nebraska Senate, representing the largest district in the Senate that covers most of north central part of the state. While each of the three main candidates received noteworthy endorsements (Fisher was endorsed by Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, Sarah Palin and Herman Cain), most of the fight in this contest was between Bruning and Stenberg. Bruning and Stenberg (plus a few outside groups) ran numerous hard hitting ads against each other and largely left Fischer untouched in the minds of voters and thus opened up a path to victory.
Fischer’s opponent is a well known face to Nebraska politics – former Governor and former U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey. Kerrey easily won his uncompetitive Democratic primary with over 80%. Kerrey is trying to win back the seat he gave up in 2000 to Ben Nelson.
While Fischer is a slight favorite to win in the fall, you can bet that both sides will pour significant resources into Nebraska given that partisan control for the U.S. Senate is up for grabs. The Tea Party will also use the Nebraska win (along with the Mourdock over Sen. Lugar win in Indiana last week) as a momentum builder for staunchly conservative candidates. In the end, if Republicans are to gain the majority they must flip the Nebraska seat. For Democrats, holding this seat would almost guarantee control for the next Congress.
Rep. Lee Terry (R) sits in a district that President Obama (D) won in 2008, thus giving one electoral vote to Obama since Nebraska awards its electoral votes proportionally. This Omaha-based district could be competitive in the fall, as Terry will face Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing (D).
Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE1) and Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE3) both won their primaries with over 80% and are strong favorites to win in November.
Congressional primary contests were also held in Idaho and Oregon. In Idaho, Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID1) and Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID2) both won their primary contests with over 70%. In Oregon, only Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR4) faced a primary opponent. Follow this – DeFazio defeated his primary opponent, Matthew Robinson (D), 90% to 10%. DeFazio will now face Art Robinson (R), the father of Matthew Robinson in the fall.
With 92 of 93 House incumbents winning their primaries to date (not counting the three member versus members contests), 2012 is not shaping up to be an “anti-incumbent” year so far. Nor will it. Some incumbents will surely lose, but it will have more to do with them being perceived as more of a problem associated with a failure to “fix” the economy rather than a candidate who creates jobs and moves the economy and country in a positive direction.
Fischer’s opponent is a well known face to Nebraska politics – former Governor and former U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey. Kerrey easily won his uncompetitive Democratic primary with over 80%. Kerrey is trying to win back the seat he gave up in 2000 to Ben Nelson.
While Fischer is a slight favorite to win in the fall, you can bet that both sides will pour significant resources into Nebraska given that partisan control for the U.S. Senate is up for grabs. The Tea Party will also use the Nebraska win (along with the Mourdock over Sen. Lugar win in Indiana last week) as a momentum builder for staunchly conservative candidates. In the end, if Republicans are to gain the majority they must flip the Nebraska seat. For Democrats, holding this seat would almost guarantee control for the next Congress.
Rep. Lee Terry (R) sits in a district that President Obama (D) won in 2008, thus giving one electoral vote to Obama since Nebraska awards its electoral votes proportionally. This Omaha-based district could be competitive in the fall, as Terry will face Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing (D).
Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE1) and Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE3) both won their primaries with over 80% and are strong favorites to win in November.
Congressional primary contests were also held in Idaho and Oregon. In Idaho, Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID1) and Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID2) both won their primary contests with over 70%. In Oregon, only Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR4) faced a primary opponent. Follow this – DeFazio defeated his primary opponent, Matthew Robinson (D), 90% to 10%. DeFazio will now face Art Robinson (R), the father of Matthew Robinson in the fall.
With 92 of 93 House incumbents winning their primaries to date (not counting the three member versus members contests), 2012 is not shaping up to be an “anti-incumbent” year so far. Nor will it. Some incumbents will surely lose, but it will have more to do with them being perceived as more of a problem associated with a failure to “fix” the economy rather than a candidate who creates jobs and moves the economy and country in a positive direction.
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