Today we continue our four part series in which BIPAC will analyze the upcoming 2014 House Crossover districts. House Crossover districts are the congressional districts where the U.S. Representative and the presidential candidate voted for by that district are of opposite parties. There are currently 26 House Crossover districts or 26 House members whose district voted for the presidential candidate of the opposite party. There are 15 incumbent Republicans serving in districts President Obama won and nine incumbent Democrats serving in districts Mitt Romney won. This series will analyze the incumbents, the districts and potential challengers as the political landscape for 2014 continues to evolve and take shape.
To see the full list of House Crossover districts visit the Political Analysis page of the BIPAC portal here.
David Valadao (R, CA 21)
Valadao is a House freshman, elected in 2012, who beat his opponent by double digits. He ran in an open seat created when former 21st District Congressman Jim Coston (D) ran in the newly created 16th District. The 21st District is known for its farming and agriculture, especially dairy, and Valadao has a solid background in dairy farming, as a managing partner of Valadao Dairy, which he started with his brothers. Valadao ran ahead of Obama in this district by four points in 2012, and Democrats blame their loss on a weak 2012 candidate who faced fundraising and debt issues. So far no credible opponents for 2014 have surfaced.
Tom Latham (R, IA 3)
Latham was first elected to Congress in 1995, representing the 5th Congressional District. Redistricting put in him the more competitive 4th District in 2012. Instead, he decided to run in the 3rd District, beating Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. Latham sits on the House Appropriations Committee, which aided him in 2012; he is the only Iowan on the committee. Latham’s 2014 opponents have already popped up, including former State Senator and businesswoman Staci Appel (D) and former factory worker Gabriel De La Cerda (D). This is a district to watch because of the importance of Iowa to presidential elections, as the Iowa caucuses provide the first indicators of which candidate might win the nomination of their party.
Jon Runyan (R, NJ 3)
Runyan, first elected in 2011, is a former football player for the Philadelphia Eagles. He ran ahead of Obama by four points in 2012 in a district that has both blue collar union families and middle/upper class suburban families. The district also has a large military and veteran presence, which Runyan has appealed to in the past years, voting against defense budget cuts and serving on the House Committee on Veterans Affairs. There are no declared opponents for 2014 yet.
Peter King (R, NY 2)
King has been in Congress since 1993 and is known for his moderate to conservative views and his strong support for the U.S. military. The 2nd District has not voted in favor of a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1992, with landslide Democratic wins in ’96, ’00, and ’08. This is a northeast district near the largest city in the country, so it should not be surprising that it supports Democratic presidential candidates, though King ran ahead of Obama by more than ten points. Although he has announced his intention to run for president in 2016, he is still gearing up for reelection in 2014. No Democratic candidates have emerged thus far.
John Barrow (D, GA 12)
Barrow won this district in 2012, which he first won in 2004, by a margin of 7.4% while Mitt Romney won this district by 11.8%. Barrow is a member of the dwindling group of Blue Dogs left in the House. The Blue Dogs are Democrats in the House known for their more conservative stances on issues like taxes and fiscal policy. Barrow’s seat has already been targeted by the NRCC. Georgia’s 12th District has voted for the Republican nominee for President not only in 2012, but for the past three presidential elections. After redistricting, the 12th District became even more Republican and Barrow was expected to face an uphill battle. However, issues with the Republican candidate’s campaign worked in Barrow’s favor, and he was able to pull through a win. Barrow already has competition in 2014, including businessman Rick Allen (R) and House Republican aide John Stone (R). This race will come down to the quality of the candidates and turnout.
Pete Gallego (D, TX 23)
The 23rd Congressional District is a true swing district, evenly split among Democrats and Republicans. In 2012, Gallego, a former Texas state representative, beat incumbent Rep. Francisoco Canseco (R) by 4.7%. A moderate Democrat, he was able to identify with the issues of the district and used his reputation for working effectively in a majority Republican legislature. The 23rd District has the largest border with Mexico of any U.S. district and has a massive oil industry, putting security, immigration and energy issues on the forefront of any campaign here. Gallego already has challengers in 2014, including businessman and former CIA operative Will Hurd (R) and physician Robert Lowry (R).
To see the full list of House Crossover districts visit the Political Analysis page of the BIPAC portal here.
David Valadao (R, CA 21)
Valadao is a House freshman, elected in 2012, who beat his opponent by double digits. He ran in an open seat created when former 21st District Congressman Jim Coston (D) ran in the newly created 16th District. The 21st District is known for its farming and agriculture, especially dairy, and Valadao has a solid background in dairy farming, as a managing partner of Valadao Dairy, which he started with his brothers. Valadao ran ahead of Obama in this district by four points in 2012, and Democrats blame their loss on a weak 2012 candidate who faced fundraising and debt issues. So far no credible opponents for 2014 have surfaced.
Tom Latham (R, IA 3)
Latham was first elected to Congress in 1995, representing the 5th Congressional District. Redistricting put in him the more competitive 4th District in 2012. Instead, he decided to run in the 3rd District, beating Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. Latham sits on the House Appropriations Committee, which aided him in 2012; he is the only Iowan on the committee. Latham’s 2014 opponents have already popped up, including former State Senator and businesswoman Staci Appel (D) and former factory worker Gabriel De La Cerda (D). This is a district to watch because of the importance of Iowa to presidential elections, as the Iowa caucuses provide the first indicators of which candidate might win the nomination of their party.
Jon Runyan (R, NJ 3)
Runyan, first elected in 2011, is a former football player for the Philadelphia Eagles. He ran ahead of Obama by four points in 2012 in a district that has both blue collar union families and middle/upper class suburban families. The district also has a large military and veteran presence, which Runyan has appealed to in the past years, voting against defense budget cuts and serving on the House Committee on Veterans Affairs. There are no declared opponents for 2014 yet.
Peter King (R, NY 2)
King has been in Congress since 1993 and is known for his moderate to conservative views and his strong support for the U.S. military. The 2nd District has not voted in favor of a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1992, with landslide Democratic wins in ’96, ’00, and ’08. This is a northeast district near the largest city in the country, so it should not be surprising that it supports Democratic presidential candidates, though King ran ahead of Obama by more than ten points. Although he has announced his intention to run for president in 2016, he is still gearing up for reelection in 2014. No Democratic candidates have emerged thus far.
John Barrow (D, GA 12)
Barrow won this district in 2012, which he first won in 2004, by a margin of 7.4% while Mitt Romney won this district by 11.8%. Barrow is a member of the dwindling group of Blue Dogs left in the House. The Blue Dogs are Democrats in the House known for their more conservative stances on issues like taxes and fiscal policy. Barrow’s seat has already been targeted by the NRCC. Georgia’s 12th District has voted for the Republican nominee for President not only in 2012, but for the past three presidential elections. After redistricting, the 12th District became even more Republican and Barrow was expected to face an uphill battle. However, issues with the Republican candidate’s campaign worked in Barrow’s favor, and he was able to pull through a win. Barrow already has competition in 2014, including businessman Rick Allen (R) and House Republican aide John Stone (R). This race will come down to the quality of the candidates and turnout.
Pete Gallego (D, TX 23)
The 23rd Congressional District is a true swing district, evenly split among Democrats and Republicans. In 2012, Gallego, a former Texas state representative, beat incumbent Rep. Francisoco Canseco (R) by 4.7%. A moderate Democrat, he was able to identify with the issues of the district and used his reputation for working effectively in a majority Republican legislature. The 23rd District has the largest border with Mexico of any U.S. district and has a massive oil industry, putting security, immigration and energy issues on the forefront of any campaign here. Gallego already has challengers in 2014, including businessman and former CIA operative Will Hurd (R) and physician Robert Lowry (R).
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