Major Redistricting Impact To Be Felt Following 2010 Election

Before we cover the impact the 2010 election will have on congressional redistricting, let’s better understand the dramatic changes that occurred in the state legislatures since this is where the redistricting process is conducted in all but seven states (AZ, CA, HI, ID, MT, NJ and WA).  Of the remaining forty-three states, six states (AK, DE, ND, SD, VT and WY) have only one at large congressional seat, leaving us with thirty-seven states with multiple congressional districts where the state legislature controls the redistricting process.

Highlights of the remarkable shifts at the state legislative level as a result of the election:

• Twenty-five states now have both the House and Senate controlled by the Republicans.  Nineteen states controlled by the Democrats.  Five states now have divided control (AK, IA, KY, NY & VA).  Nebraska has a nonpartisan legislature.  Prior to the election, nine states had divided control.
• Either nineteen or twenty state legislative chambers switched party control to Republicans.
• Six states saw both chambers switch party control (AL, ME, MN, NH, NC & WI).
• Five states moved from divided control to both chambers being Republican controlled (IN, MI, MT, OH & PA).
• Two additional states, and possibly three, moved from Democrat to divided control (IA & CO).  The New York Senate is still undecided, but likely to switch to Republican control.
• At least fifteen states saw at least one legislative chamber move away from Democratic control.
• No legislative chamber switched to Democratic control.
• According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), Republicans gained at least 675 state legislative seats across the country.
• Republicans had a net gain of five Governor’s offices and now hold twenty-nine of the offices while Democrats have twenty and one Independent.

At the end of this year, the U.S. Census Bureau will conclude the decennial counting process and submit, by the end of February, the information to the state legislatures so they can play political cartographer with state legislative and congressional district boundaries.  I will continue to argue that during any ten-year period there is no single issue legislators selfishly think is more important and will fight harder on than redistricting. Unfortunately, this comes at the expense of concentrating on sound fiscal policies or improving on a tattered atmosphere in need of greater bi-partisanship.

As there is following every new census and reapportionment, there will be changes in the number of congressional seats awarded to each state.  By far, the biggest winner will be Texas, which is projected to gain four seats to give it thirty-six seats.  Florida will also be a big winner, picking up two seats.  Six additional states will each gain one seat (AZ, GA, NV, SC, UT & WA).

Ten states offset the eight states that gained a total of twelve seats.  New York and Ohio are both projected to lose two seats each.  New York will drop to twenty-seven seats and Ohio to sixteen seats.  Eight states are projected to lose one seat each (IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MO, NJ & PA).  Of note are that ten seats lost come from a state on one of the Great Lakes or along the Mississippi River.

The breakdown of where the Republicans will be in full control or control two out of the three areas in the redistricting process:

• Republicans have control of the House, Senate and Governor’s Office in sixteen states (this counts NC where the Governor has no part in the process).  These sixteen states total 193 congressional districts.
  (AL, FL, GA, IN, KS, ME, MI, NC, OH, OK, PA, SC, TN, TX, UT, WI)
• Republicans currently hold five at large congressional seats that are not affected by redistricting (AK, MT, ND, SD & WY).
• Republicans have control of the House and Senate with a Democrat Governor in three states (MN, MO & NH).  These states total eighteen congressional districts.
• There are two additional states (IA & VA) with split legislative control and a Republican Governor.  These two states total fifteen congressional districts.
• Nebraska has a unicameral legislature with a Republican Governor and has three congressional districts.
• Republicans are in full control or have an advantage in twenty-seven states that will be drawing 234 congressional districts.

The breakdown of where the Democrats will be in full control or control two out of the three areas in the redistricting process:

• Democrats have control of the House, Senate and Governor’s Office in seven states (AR, CT, HI, IL, MA, MD & WV).  These seven states total forty-nine congressional districts and counts CT where the Governor has no part in the process.
• Democrats currently control two at large congressional seats that are not affected by redistricting (DE & VT).
• Democrats have control of the House and Senate with a Republican Governor in four states (LA, MS, NM & NV) and an Independent Governor in RI.  These states total nineteen congressional districts.
• There are three additional states (CO, KY & OR) with split legislative control and a Democrat Governor.  These three states total eighteen congressional districts.
• While the New York Senate is undecided, the House and Governor is Democrat.  Following reapportionment, New York will have twenty-seven seats.
• Democrats are in full control or have an advantage in seventeen states that will be drawing 115 congressional districts.

Five states have a commission that will determine the congressional districts in their state (AZ, CA, ID, NJ & WA).  These five states total eighty-six congressional districts.  Montana also has a commission, but is an at-large congressional district. Nine of the twelve gains due to reapportionment occur in five states that the redistricting process is completely controlled by the Republicans (FL, GA, SC, TX & UT).

Looking at the table above, Republicans will sit in 234 seats where they control or have an advantage in the redistricting process.  Democrats occupy 115 seats in states they have an advantage or control the process.  Republicans hold forty-eight seats to the Democrats seventy-two seats that the opposite party has either complete control or a redistricting advantage.  Keep a close eye on these 120 seats and the cartography skills of the mapmakers if you want an early look at where many of the battleground seats will be in the 2012 election.