Redistricting Update

Redistricting efforts are well under way as most of our state legislative bodies are currently in session.  Over the next several months (and maybe a couple of years for some states), we will give you updates of what is going on at the state level.

While not a comprehensive list (that would take considerably more space than we have), here are some of the more interesting/timely redistricting events:

Arkansas

Governor Mike Beebe has signed the redistricting bill into law (DOJ does not have to approve AR maps) which makes Arkansas the first state to approve congressional maps this year.  The four congressional seats appear to be relatively unchanged from a competitive viewpoint.  If the lone Democrat in the delegation (Rep. Mike Ross) runs for governor in 2014, the 4th District could now be competitive.  State legislative maps will be drawn by the Arkansas Board of Apportionment.

California

For the first time, a citizen lead panel will lead the redistricting efforts.  With the process no longer controlled by Democrats, who dominate the House, Senate and Governor’s office, huge changes may be in store for a state that has seen few competitive state legislative or congressional contests in recent history.

Indiana

Republicans have control of the House, Senate and Governor’s office.  The House and Senate have approved an identical Congressional map while also approving a map that covers their own chamber.  While not yet final, these maps are likely to be approved.  Democrat Rep. Joe Donnelly’s district sees significant partisan changes to the seat he holds that will give Republicans a better chance to win this northern-based district (look for him to run for Governor or U.S. Senate in 2012).  Republicans will have an opportunity to improve on its six of nine seats here.  The State House maps, the first drawn by Republicans since 1981, will significantly improve its chances of holding control.

Iowa

In a state where the legislature could have the ultimate say in redrawing the maps, a redistricting commission draws the maps for an up or down vote by the legislature.  The legislature has approved and Governor Terry Branstad has signed the redistricting bill for the House, Senate and Congress into law.  Unlike what is likely to occur in many states, Iowa’s maps should lead to a healthy number of competitive races at all levels.  Republican Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham (who will move out to face Democrat Rep. Boswell) have been drawn into the same northwestern-based district while Democratic Reps. Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack (who will move into a new district with no incumbent) are now in the same northeastern-based district.

Louisiana

Governor Jindal has signed the redistricting bill into law, however the Department of Justice must approve the maps under the Voting Rights Act of 1965 before they take effect.  One of the big stories here is that two Republicans, (Reps. Charles Boustany and Jeff Landry) have been drawn into the same district and will likely create a primary fight where Boustany will have the advantage over Tea Party favorite Landry.  Louisiana lost one seat in reapportionment and now has six seats.

Missouri

Missouri Republicans have control over the legislature, but appear to be struggling to find agreement on drawing maps.  The main disagreement is over how to draw the eight congressional seats.  Missouri lost one congressional seat due to reapportionment.  Look for plenty of meetings this week between state and congressional Republicans to resolve their differences.  Once the legislature approves maps, Democratic Governor Nixon will weigh in with a possible veto.

North Carolina

The only state to gain over one million in population and not gain a congressional seat through the 2010 reapportionment.  A critical state on the presidential election stage and one that continues to undergo a rapid change in its political fiber.  Republicans gained control of the House and Senate in 2010.  The General Assembly has scheduled a series of public meetings across the state to begin the process.  North Carolina is a Voting Rights Act state and has had numerous lawsuits over its maps in the past so don’t expect a new set of maps soon and don’t expect those maps to be in effect for all five congressional elections in this reapportionment cycle.

Texas

Keep your eyes on Texas.  The population growth that lead to Texas being the biggest winner in reapportionment (a gain of four congressional seats) is mostly due to Hispanic growth.  While Republicans have control over the redistricting process, their goal will be to find a state and congressional set of maps that does not further alienate Hispanics and could withstand a court challenge.  At most, two of the four new congressional seats will be GOP districts.  With Texas’s population growth fueled by Hispanics and its large number of electoral votes, look for this state to become increasingly more important on the national political scene – especially in presidential elections.  Texas will become a Florida/Ohio state in the near future.

Virginia

After being critical of the proposed maps, Governor Bob McDonnell vetoed the redistricting bill.  The General Assembly (with a Republican House of Delegates and a Democratic Senate) has its work out now to approve maps that the Republican Governor will sign into law.  Once approved, the Department of Justice must approve the maps.  All of this needs to happen soon if the state is to hold primaries that are currently scheduled for August 23.  The original date was June 14.

We expect there to be a steady flow of new and interesting information concerning redistricting over the next few months.  We are keeping a close eye on several additional states (such as CO, KY, MS, NJ, NY, PA, OH and WA) and will write about these states and others soon.