With the results from the American Samoa and Hawaii caucuses not coming in until well past midnight on the East Coast, a big story line was not revealed until late (4:30 am ET). For as big of a win as Santorum enjoyed before midnight, Romney ended up winning the most delegates from the four contests held. Romney won all nine delegates in American Samoa and won the first ever Hawaii caucus with 44.8% of the vote to 25.4% for Santorum, 18.7% for Paul and 11.2% for Gingrich (with 87% reporting).
The unofficial delegate count from the four contests nets Romney 50 delegates, Santorum 30, Gingrich 24 and Paul 0 (15 delegates have not been allocated).
Races are usually won by the candidate who is simply the best match to the voters regardless of ideology, party or even money. In Alabama and Mississippi you would expect a more conservative candidate to win and that is exactly what happened. The conservative candidate with more momentum heading into these two southern states was Rick Santorum and he recorded two big wins where GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney finished third in both states. The failure of Newt Gingrich to win in his home region and to finish ahead of fellow conservative Santorum significantly hurts, more likely ends, any chance to reach the White House. With two conservative candidates in the race, Romney’s close finish kept Santorum from a decisive win and a much larger net gain in much needed delegates.
Santorum won Alabama with 34.5% to Gingrich’s 29.3%, Romney’s 29.0% and Paul’s 5.0% (with 98.4% reporting) and won Mississippi with 32.9% to Gingrich’s 31.3%, Romney’s 30.3% and Paul’s 4.4% (with 99.3% reporting).
In presentations I have been giving to companies and groups around the country this year I have been talking about how important numbers are to elections and the significance of perception versus reality. I have also been talking about how you have to reset the race for the GOP nomination every time a candidate decides not to run (last year, think Christie, Daniels, Barbour, Palin etc.), a candidate drops out (Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman, Cain etc.) or it becomes evident that a remaining candidate is no longer viable. The last time the GOP race experienced a major reset was when Rick Perry dropped out on January 19. Following the last couple of weeks and the results out of Alabama and Mississippi last night, a strong argument can be made that Ron Paul and Gingrich no longer have a path to victory.
Estimated GOP delegate count:
The unofficial delegate count from the four contests nets Romney 50 delegates, Santorum 30, Gingrich 24 and Paul 0 (15 delegates have not been allocated).
Races are usually won by the candidate who is simply the best match to the voters regardless of ideology, party or even money. In Alabama and Mississippi you would expect a more conservative candidate to win and that is exactly what happened. The conservative candidate with more momentum heading into these two southern states was Rick Santorum and he recorded two big wins where GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney finished third in both states. The failure of Newt Gingrich to win in his home region and to finish ahead of fellow conservative Santorum significantly hurts, more likely ends, any chance to reach the White House. With two conservative candidates in the race, Romney’s close finish kept Santorum from a decisive win and a much larger net gain in much needed delegates.
Santorum won Alabama with 34.5% to Gingrich’s 29.3%, Romney’s 29.0% and Paul’s 5.0% (with 98.4% reporting) and won Mississippi with 32.9% to Gingrich’s 31.3%, Romney’s 30.3% and Paul’s 4.4% (with 99.3% reporting).
In presentations I have been giving to companies and groups around the country this year I have been talking about how important numbers are to elections and the significance of perception versus reality. I have also been talking about how you have to reset the race for the GOP nomination every time a candidate decides not to run (last year, think Christie, Daniels, Barbour, Palin etc.), a candidate drops out (Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman, Cain etc.) or it becomes evident that a remaining candidate is no longer viable. The last time the GOP race experienced a major reset was when Rick Perry dropped out on January 19. Following the last couple of weeks and the results out of Alabama and Mississippi last night, a strong argument can be made that Ron Paul and Gingrich no longer have a path to victory.
Estimated GOP delegate count:
As the table above shows, for Gingrich to win the nomination, he needs to win nearly three out of four of the remaining delegates and Paul needs to win more than four out of five of the delegates. Game over. If you accept that premise, this major reset now means the GOP contest to face President Obama in the fall is now down to a two-candidate race. At this point, throw every poll out the window and take a new look at every upcoming contest. With that written, Romney has a clear numbers advantage in delegates won and Santorum is facing a steep hill to climb to win the GOP nomination and must win nearly two out of three of the remaining delegates to win.
The ups and downs following each state contest has also led to several minor resets in perception. The perception battle out of Alabama and Mississippi was clearly won by Rick Santorum who won the statewide vote totals in each state. In the delegate race, Santorum’s net gain of 6 delegates in Alabama and Mississippi was diminished by Romney’s wins in the Hawaii and American Samoa caucuses. At the end of the night, Romney’s net gain for Tuesday was 20 delegates. Since Super Tuesday, Romney’s net gain was 39 delegates.
Mathematically, the earliest Romney can reach the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination is May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia) and the earliest Santorum can clinch is May 29 (Texas). Gingrich and Paul cannot clinch until June 5 (California, New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana or New Mexico).
Following the results of Super Tuesday here is a candidate status update:
The ups and downs following each state contest has also led to several minor resets in perception. The perception battle out of Alabama and Mississippi was clearly won by Rick Santorum who won the statewide vote totals in each state. In the delegate race, Santorum’s net gain of 6 delegates in Alabama and Mississippi was diminished by Romney’s wins in the Hawaii and American Samoa caucuses. At the end of the night, Romney’s net gain for Tuesday was 20 delegates. Since Super Tuesday, Romney’s net gain was 39 delegates.
Mathematically, the earliest Romney can reach the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination is May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia) and the earliest Santorum can clinch is May 29 (Texas). Gingrich and Paul cannot clinch until June 5 (California, New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana or New Mexico).
Following the results of Super Tuesday here is a candidate status update:
- Ron Paul – Zero victories. Zero delegates scored last night. Zero chance remaining.
- Newt Gingrich – Has now lost the fight over conservative voters to Santorum. His campaign laid out a southern strategy to win the nomination, but lost three of the four southern states bordering his home state of Georgia.
- Rick Santorum – The good news for Santorum is that he recorded strong victories in Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi in the last week and is clearly positioned as the only remaining candidate that can keep Romney from winning the nomination. The bad news for Santorum is that he barely made a dent in the delegate count against Romney.
- Mitt Romney – Sans the field being cleared (unlikely), Romney cannot clinch the GOP nomination until one of the last ten contests. The May 29 Texas or June 5 California primaries may be the state that secures the needed delegates for the nomination.
- The most delegates, the most victories, the most money raised, and the best campaign organization all add up to Romney continuing to remain the GOP frontrunner. However, a few of the upcoming states are not the best match for Romney, but his delegate advantage will continue for at least the remainder of this month.
- Barack Obama – Officially, the unopposed incumbent has just crossed 60% of the delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination. Officially doesn’t matter. What matters is that Obama continues to build a money and grassroots war chest for the fall.
- March 17 – MO (52)
- March 18 – Puerto Rico (23)
- Mach 20 – IL (69)
- March 24 – LA (46)
- April 3 – WI (42), MD (37) and DC (19)
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