Senate Race of the Week

Control of the U.S. Senate Remains Up In the Air

There are 33 U.S. Senate seats up in 2012 with 11 of those seats being an open seat contest (AZ, CT, AK, IN, ME, NE, NM, ND, TX, VA, & WI). At the start of this election cycle the conventional wisdom was that Republicans were in great position to capture the majority. To do so would require a net gain of four seats to get to 51 seats and thus clear control of the upper chamber. As time marched forward several events have made this task for Republicans much more difficult. Here are a few of the main hurdles that are hurting the GOP’s chances:

• The quality of GOP candidates compared to 2010 is not as strong especially against vulnerable incumbent Democrats
• A sure victory in Maine with Sen. Susan Collins (R) went out the window when she decided to retire
• A likely victory in Indiana turned into a competitive race when GOP challenger Richard Murdock (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar (R)
• A highly vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) caught two breaks when Rep. Todd Akin (R) won the GOP primary over two stronger General Election candidates and then when Akin made the most controversial comments of the cycle

Despite all of this, ten contests (AZ, CT, IN, MA, MO, MT, ND, NV, VA & WI) remain within six points in the most recent credible independent polling and control of the Senate is still up in the air. Democrats have improved their position of maintaining control and after looking at the map below the net gain would be zero. Democrats would flip three seats (IN, MA & ME) while Republicans would also flip three seats (CT, MT & NE).

Clearly each side could wind up in the majority and the combination of victories in these ten states will decide if Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) will keep his title of Majority Leader or if he will be forced to hand that title over to a Republican. Stay tuned.