Virginia and New Jersey Election Overview

Major Takeaways:

• Swing Voters Aren't Dead
• Candidates Matter

Virginia is the quintessential swing state. It supported George Bush twice, then Barack Obama twice. It has alternated between Republican and Democratic Governors and Senators. New Jersey is not a swing state. It has gone Democratic in every Presidential election of the last 30 years. But it is New Jersey where a Republican was just reelected Governor by land slide margins and Virginia that went Democratic by almost equally large margins. In short, there are a LOT of New Jersey voters who voted for Barack Obama and Chris Christie and a LOT of Virginia voters who voted for Mitt Romney and Terry McAuliffe. This tells us two things primarily - first, that candidates matter and secondly, that despite partisan polarization in Washington, swing voters aren't dead and are readily willing to switch between parties.

To be fair, both Chris Christie in New Jersey and Ken Cuccinelli are both extraordinary candidates in some ways. Christie pulls many more crossover votes than an average candidate and as a result, drew a fairly weak opponent. Conversely, Cuccinelli proved much more polarizing than other Republicans of similar ideology, so each is a bit of an outlier in terms of crossover potential. That each ARE outliers, however, demonstrates just how wide the political center is when presented with extraordinary candidates.

For the entire partisan divide in Congress and the rancor between the parties in DC, the election results yesterday tell us that there are many Americans who still vote for individual candidates and issues, not parties.

In Virginia, Cuccinelli underperformed Romney and dramatically underperformed his immediate GOP predecessor Bob McDonnell. He underperformed Republican Attorney General candidate Mark Obenshain who has a similar ideological profile, but a different approach, style and temperament.

Most telling about the nature of campaigns and the difference a higher profile race can make and how effective the McAuliffe (a deeply flawed candidate himself) campaign's efforts were to define Cuccinelli as an extremist candidate is that Cuccinelli dramatically underperformed HIMSELF from his 2009 election as Attorney General. In that race, he received 1,124,137 votes or 57.5%. For Governor, he received only 1,008,554 for 45.5%.

New Jersey offers a mirror image. Obama won New Jersey with 58% and 57% in 2012 and 2008 respectively. Governor Chris Christie was elected in 2009 with only a plurality 48% of the vote over scandal plagued incumbent John Corzine. Yesterday, he walked away with 61% of the vote. Again, looking at vote percentages at the county level is revealing.

All of this simply illustrates what Washington has had such a hard time understanding: that voters are not wedded to parties the way politicians are, with a few exceptions. They are willing to switch between parties to support candidates that reflect their interests.

The results also demonstrate how important candidates and campaigns are. Good candidates with good campaigns can and will win in the most unlikely places. The pro-growth, pro-prosperity community needs to be the point of the spear ensuring we support those sort of common-sense, consensus building candidates in both parties. Voters showed in Virginia and New Jersey last night that a new way is possible.

Note: For this analysis, Obama/Romney results are a partisan benchmark. According to exit polling, Obama drew 92% of Democratic votes, Romney drew 93% of Republican votes and Independents split evenly 50-50. Thus, Romney and Obama provide an excellent barometer to evaluate over or under performance by a candidate based on a standard partisan behavior.