Will There Be a Convention Bump?

• National Conventions Are Here
• Wyoming Primary
• Georgia Runoff Election
• 6 Big Days Left

The next two weeks will bring us endless stories from the Republican convention in Tampa and the Democrat convention the week after in Charlotte. One of the most common stories will be determining what kind of bump each of the candidates receives following their national convention. According to Gallup, only two candidates since 1964 failed to receive a convention bounce – John Kerry (D) in 2004 and George McGovern (D) in 1972. The typical candidate receives a five point improvement in their numbers following the convention. Also, a larger bounce does not always translate into a victory either. Just look at John McCain (R) or Michael Dukakis (D).

Georgia Runoff Elections
All three Runoff Elections for Congress were on the Republican side, with the 12th District contest being the one with the most interest in terms of potential competitive fall contests. With just 53% of the old 12th District remaining in the new 12th District, incumbent Rep. John Barrow (D) faces a mostly new district that creates a feeling this is an open seat contest. Barrow has been serving in the House since the 2004 election and will face state representative Lee Anderson (R) who has apparently won the Runoff Election over Rick W. Allen (R) by less than 1% (with 98% reporting, Lee leads by just 154 votes), but a recount is possible. In addition to significant changes to the district boundaries, the new district voted 55.6% for McCain. For Republicans, the 12th represents one of the pickup opportunities against an incumbent Democrat.

The 2nd District, located in Southwest Georgia, is a clear Democrat district represented by Rep. Sanford Bishop (D). John House (R) won 55% of the vote and will challenge Bishop in November.

The 9th District is arguably the most Republican district in Georgia (McCain received 74.7%) and one of seven districts in the state that John McCain (R) received over 60% in 2008. In the Primary Election, state representative Doug Collins (R) edged out radio talk show host Martha Zoller (R) by just 734 votes. Collins won the Runoff Election by a 54.6% to 45.4% margin. A Zoller win in the General Election would have resulted in electing the first Georgia woman to the U.S. House.

Wyoming
Incumbent Sen. John Barrasso (R) dispatched his primary voter with just over 90% of the vote in route to what will almost certainly lead to his first full term after being appointed to fill the vacancy created by the passing of Sen. Craig Thomas (R) in 2007. Barrasso then won a 2008 special election to fill out the remainder of the term. Barrasso remains well liked in the state and will face Albany County Board of Commissioner Tim Chesnut (D) in the General Election. Nearly 85% of the primary ballots cast were in the Republican primary.

Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R-At Large) is seeking a third term and like Barrasso is a strong favorite to win. Both Lummis and her General Election opponent Chris Henrichsen (D) were unopposed in the Primary Election. Wyoming Democrats are focused on state legislative contests and did not attempt to recruit a candidate against Lummis. Henrichsen, who has lived in Wyoming for two years, teaches politics at Casper College.